Value of: Players with 4-5 years remaining on an 8 years contract, where are the steals?

[hn777]

So whenever a "star/prospect" player is signed to a long term contract, unmistakently you will get the STEAL comment "that contract will be a steal in 3 years" etc... Below is a list of all 25 current players with 4-5 years remaining on an 8 years contract. Do you see many that qualify as a steal?
**credit: data found on puckpedia**

1	Barkov, Aleksander		29	C	Yr 3 of 8	8	$10,000,000	2029-30	UFA
2	Jones, Seth		29	D	Yr 3 of 8	8	$9,500,000	2029-30	UFA
3	McAvoy, Charlie		26	D	Yr 3 of 8	8	$9,500,000	2029-30	UFA
4	Tkachuk, Matthew		26	L	Yr 3 of 8	8	$9,500,000	2029-30	UFA
5	Point, Brayden		28	C	Yr 3 of 8	8	$9,500,000	2029-30	UFA
6	Nurse, Darnell		29	D	Yr 3 of 8	8	$9,250,000	2029-30	UFA
7	Zibanejad, Mika		31	C	Yr 3 of 8	8	$8,500,000	2029-30	UFA
8	Forsberg, Filip		30	C	Yr 3 of 8	8	$8,500,000	2029-30	UFA
9	Heiskanen, Miro		25	D	Yr 4 of 8	8	$8,450,000	2028-29	UFA
10	Hertl, Tomas		30	C	Yr 3 of 8	8	$8,137,500	2029-30	UFA
11	Hughes, Jack		23	C	Yr 3 of 8	8	$8,000,000	2029-30	UFA
12	Norris, Joshua		25	C	Yr 3 of 8	8	$7,950,000	2029-30	UFA
13	Suzuki, Nick		25	C	Yr 3 of 8	8	$7,875,000	2029-30	UFA
14	Svechnikov, Andrei		24	R	Yr 4 of 8	8	$7,750,000	2028-29	UFA
15	Couturier, Sean		31	C	Yr 3 of 8	8	$7,750,000	2029-30	UFA
16	Rielly, Morgan		30	D	Yr 3 of 8	8	$7,500,000	2029-30	UFA
17	Landeskog, Gabriel		31	L	Yr 4 of 8	8	$7,000,000	2028-29	UFA
18	Lindholm, Hampus		30	D	Yr 3 of 8	8	$6,500,000	2029-30	UFA
19	Parayko, Colton		31	D	Yr 3 of 8	8	$6,500,000	2029-30	UFA
20	Pulock, Ryan		29	D	Yr 3 of 8	8	$6,150,000	2029-30	UFA
21	Nichushkin, Valeri		29	R	Yr 3 of 8	8	$6,125,000	2029-30	UFA
22	Pelech, Adam		30	D	Yr 4 of 8	8	$5,750,000	2028-29	UFA
23	Eriksson Ek, Joel		27	C	Yr 4 of 8	8	$5,250,000	2028-29	UFA
24	Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan		31	C	Yr 4 of 8	8	$5,125,000	2028-29	UFA
25	Kotkaniemi, Jesperi		24	C	Yr 3 of 8	8	$4,820,000	2029-30	UFA

You forgot Morrissey on your list.
Year 5 of 8 and a cap hit of $6,250,000.
That's a steal for a 1D.

 

[Miller Time]

So, would a "steal" be that if they signed the contract today, they'd be making ~50% more? Or is the threshold less than that?

Because if somebody was making $8M and would/should be ~$10M, I'd consider that a very nice contract, but not necessarily a "steal".

The semantics are of course very subjective... But in a cap system, I would argue that getting any elite level player at less than market value is a "steal" given the demand for & scarcity of players "worth" 10M. The greater the discount, the greater the steal, but even at 500K, it's still a "steal" in my books.

Just getting one signed long term at market value is challenging enough. The higher value & cost of a player, the greater the relative value of each dollar "saved" vs their market value.

 

[SI90]

Some Good, some Fair, and Some bad. As expected.

 

[dixie]

To a lesser extent Ryan O Reilly 4/18 on year 2! Best contract in hockey

 

[Ford Prefect]

I'd say the biggest steal on the list is Kotkaniemi. Though not from the team's perspective; from the perspective of an over-hyped 4th line center. Unfortunately for him, he'll get bought out and earn less with his buyout money + new near-league-min deal.

Couldn't happen to a nicer team though.

 

[Pablo El Perro]

You forgot Morrissey on your list.
Year 5 of 8 and a cap hit of $6,250,000.
That's a steal for a 1D.

Playing for Winnipeg, Morrissey doesn't get much love on here.

 

[KevinRedkey]

The entire list is only 25 names long...
M.Tkachuk
Forsberg
Lindholm
Barkov
Jones
Rielly
Kotkaniemi
Parayko
McAvoy
Couturier
Hertl
Nurse
Pulock
Nichushkin
J.Hughes
Norris
Suzuki
Zibanejad
Point
Nugent-Hopkins
Pelech
Svechnikov
Heiskanen
Eriksson Ek
Landeskog

Heiskanen, Eriksson Ek, RNH, J.Hughes, and Lindholm are what I could consider 'steals'. Maybe Barkov as well but I'm not sure.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Jack Hughes

He and Quinn should fire their agent. They’re both significantly underpaid compared to their peers.

 

[DearDiary]

He and Quinn should fire their agent. They’re both significantly underpaid compared to their peers.

At the time of the signing, he had poor stats and missed many games, including 17 games with a shoulder injury during contract talks.

Here is the contract talk thread here, with the consensus is the Devils took a gamble on him
Confirmed Signing with Link: - [NJD] Jack Hughes signs extension with the Devils (8 years, $8M AAV)

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Not really. At the time of the signing, he had poor stats and missed many games, including 17 games with a shoulder injury during contract talks.

Here is the contract talk thread here, with the consensus is the Devils took a gamble on him = Confirmed Signing with Link: - [NJD] Jack Hughes signs extension with the Devils (8 years, $8M AAV)

Agree to disagree. I didn’t think it was a gamble at all. It was pretty obvious he was going to be a big star.

 

[DearDiary]

Agree to disagree. I didn’t think it was a gamble at all. It was pretty obvious he was going to be a big star.

Not about having star potential, it was his injury history hurting his development.

 

[Breakers]

That Josh Norris contract looks like absolute hot garbage.

He had injury concerns at Michigan

 

[jackjohnson]

Biggest steal by the team:
Heiskenin

Biggest steal by the player:
Nurse

 

[Memento]

I know he's not on the list, but Robert Thomas absolutely has to count as a steal at 8.1 million a year. A number one center who turned twenty-five this July, and had almost ninety points last year (twenty-six goals, sixty assists) while playing in every situation for a Blues team lacking in superstar power?

He has to be up there in terms of steals.

 

[dredeye]

I don’t remember anyone saying McAvoy was a steal. I lot of them signed at what their project or current values were. It’s the not well known guys that signed long deals you beat that about.

 

[Dirty Dog]

The whole premise of the thread is off. We were in a flat cap world. So the idea of getting a steal because of the cap rising later in the contract hasn’t happened yet.

And regardless, several of the deals already look good….and will look better once the cap rises further

 

[Panthaz89]

Is Suzuki really a steal like everyone seems to say? Doesn't particularly dominate harder than a 7 million player would.

 

[Ford Prefect]

Is Suzuki really a steal like everyone seems to say? Doesn't particularly dominate harder than a 7 million player would.

You dared criticize a Montreal player? On an open forum? With your own identity? Are you new here? Wait til the cavalry arrives.

 

[ZegrassyKnoll]

You dared criticize a Montreal player? On an open forum? With your own identity? Are you new here? Wait til the cavalry arrives.

View attachment 909711

Just say "Lane Hutson" three times in the mirror and you'll be safe

 

[behemolari]

There is a difference between "worth the contract" or "slight underpayment" vs. a true "steal". From this list, I would put Heiskanen, Hughes, Ericsson-Ek, Nugent-Hopkins, and Suzuki as steals.

I would put Barkov ahead Hughes anyday

 

[RandV]

Whether it's valid or not people talking about 'steals' in this regard refer to younger players, typically coming off ELC's and/or not quite established yet. Not players signing 8 year UFA deals, which is being included in the discussion here. Those you expect are going to be bad near the end.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

Jack Hughes and Eriksson Ek are the top 2 imo

I would put Barkov ahead Hughes anyday

maybe so, but I wouldn't call 10m a steal of a contract
Hughes at 8 is a steal though. Barkov will need the cap to rise like it just did for another year or 2 before it enters steal territory
he's getting paid pretty much what he should

 

[Axel Sandy Pelikan]

Jack Hughes and Eriksson Ek are the top 2 imo


maybe so, but I wouldn't call 10m a steal of a contract
Hughes at 8 is a steal though. Barkov will need the cap to rise like it just did for another year or 2 before it enters steal territory
he's getting paid pretty much what he should

I would. Regarding forwards, I'd have a hard time putting him outside the top 5 at the position. You've got Matthews making 13, MacKinnon just signed for 13, McDavid with an insane discount to 12.5 and Draisaitl just signed to 14.

He's making, at a minimum 20% less than anyone remotely comparable that's only McDavid, he's at 12.5M because he did the Oilers a solid. Everyone else, it's closer to 30% less for a player who would probably be a pretty good hockey trade for those guys.

 

[hockeyguy0022]

Zegras is a great deal right now, see what you can make him into still with time... but that window is closing.

If he isn't what you want, move him again.

 

[behemolari]

Jack Hughes and Eriksson Ek are the top 2 imo


maybe so, but I wouldn't call 10m a steal of a contract
Hughes at 8 is a steal though. Barkov will need the cap to rise like it just did for another year or 2 before it enters steal territory
he's getting paid pretty much what he should

Alexander "sasha" Barkov is the definition of the steal. Period.