Value of: Players with 4-5 years remaining on an 8 years contract, where are the steals?

Zennon

Registered User
Mar 12, 2004
172
32
So whenever a "star/prospect" player is signed to a long term contract, unmistakently you will get the STEAL comment "that contract will be a steal in 3 years" etc... Below is a list of all 25 current players with 4-5 years remaining on an 8 years contract. Do you see many that qualify as a steal?
**credit: data found on puckpedia**




1 Barkov, Aleksander 29C
Yr 3 of 8
8$10,000,0002029-30 UFA
2 Jones, Seth 29D
Yr 3 of 8
8$9,500,0002029-30 UFA
3 McAvoy, Charlie 26D
Yr 3 of 8
8$9,500,0002029-30 UFA
4 Tkachuk, Matthew 26L
Yr 3 of 8
8$9,500,0002029-30 UFA
5 Point, Brayden 28C
Yr 3 of 8
8$9,500,0002029-30 UFA
6 Nurse, Darnell 29D
Yr 3 of 8
8$9,250,0002029-30 UFA
7 Zibanejad, Mika 31C
Yr 3 of 8
8$8,500,0002029-30 UFA
8 Forsberg, Filip 30C
Yr 3 of 8
8$8,500,0002029-30 UFA
9 Heiskanen, Miro 25D
Yr 4 of 8
8$8,450,0002028-29 UFA
10 Hertl, Tomas 30C
Yr 3 of 8
8$8,137,5002029-30 UFA
11 Hughes, Jack 23C
Yr 3 of 8
8$8,000,0002029-30 UFA
12 Norris, Joshua 25C
Yr 3 of 8
8$7,950,0002029-30 UFA
13 Suzuki, Nick 25C
Yr 3 of 8
8$7,875,0002029-30 UFA
14 Svechnikov, Andrei 24R
Yr 4 of 8
8$7,750,0002028-29 UFA
15 Couturier, Sean 31C
Yr 3 of 8
8$7,750,0002029-30 UFA
16 Rielly, Morgan 30D
Yr 3 of 8
8$7,500,0002029-30 UFA
17 Landeskog, Gabriel 31L
Yr 4 of 8
8$7,000,0002028-29 UFA
18 Lindholm, Hampus 30D
Yr 3 of 8
8$6,500,0002029-30 UFA
19 Parayko, Colton 31D
Yr 3 of 8
8$6,500,0002029-30 UFA
20 Pulock, Ryan 29D
Yr 3 of 8
8$6,150,0002029-30 UFA
21 Nichushkin, Valeri 29R
Yr 3 of 8
8$6,125,0002029-30 UFA
22 Pelech, Adam 30D
Yr 4 of 8
8$5,750,0002028-29 UFA
23 Eriksson Ek, Joel 27C
Yr 4 of 8
8$5,250,0002028-29 UFA
24 Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan 31C
Yr 4 of 8
8$5,125,0002028-29 UFA
25 Kotkaniemi, Jesperi 24C
Yr 3 of 8
8$4,820,0002029-30 UFA
 

jonlin

Registered User
Nov 11, 2011
6,053
5,882
Barkov - 2 selkes, stanley cup, best 2-way forward in the league and 4 consecutive PPG+ seasons. Sets the bar for Florida`s players

Tkachuk - 3 consecutive PPG+ seasons. Hard-nosed player who make space for his teammates and is very hard to play against.

Heiskanen - Top5 young 1D in the league. Very good 2-way player

Hughes - Tremendous young 1C with 3 consecutive PPG+ seasons at a VERY good deal. Top10 C in the league.

Suzuki - Young 1C and captain of the Canadians. Gets better every year and sets the bar for the teams rebuild as their best player and Captain

RNH - Reliable 2-way C/W, who you can put on ice in any situation. Is on a VERY cheap contract for what he brings. One of the best contracts in the league.
 

Ledge And Dairy

Registered User
The cap has only increased once by anything meaningful in the last 3 years, and we havent played a single game under that new cap yet. With the exception of a couple that were instantly steals (Nuge, Rielly, Hughes, and maybe Heiskanen) it's pretty hard to judge them as steals or not yet. Especially when you have guys like Couturier, Norris, and Landeskog who have all missed significant time due to injuries since signing those deals. I would say give it at least 1 more year for the cap to go up another ~5M then come back to this.

For example Hampus Lindholm signed for 7.88% of the cap in 22/23, next year when the cap is ~93M that cap% will drop to 6.99%. Nearly 1% less of the cap.
 

Michoulicious

Registered User
Dec 9, 2014
7,514
8,261
Hughes, Suzuki, Heiskanen, RNH. That's about it.

Erkisson-Ek is very good value as well. Svech would be good, but too many injuries.
 

FerrisRox

"Wanna go, Prettyboy?"
Sep 17, 2003
20,909
14,228
Toronto, Ontario
Barkov - 2 selkes, stanley cup, best 2-way forward in the league and 4 consecutive PPG+ seasons. Sets the bar for Florida`s players

Tkachuk - 3 consecutive PPG+ seasons. Hard-nosed player who make space for his teammates and is very hard to play against.

Heiskanen - Top5 young 1D in the league. Very good 2-way player

Hughes - Tremendous young 1C with 3 consecutive PPG+ seasons at a VERY good deal. Top10 C in the league.

Suzuki - Young 1C and captain of the Canadians. Gets better every year and sets the bar for the teams rebuild as their best player and Captain

RNH - Reliable 2-way C/W, who you can put on ice in any situation. Is on a VERY cheap contract for what he brings. One of the best contracts in the league.

This is the *exact* same list I was just about to post. Literally the identical list of players.
 

Reality Czech

Registered User
Apr 17, 2017
5,868
9,467
I don't think teams expect "steals" but they'll be happy to get good value once the cap and salaries continue to rise. There are a number of good value deals on that list that may look even better in a couple years. I can't speak for all fan bases but as a Blues fan I'm happy to have Parayko locked in at that number. Thomas will almost certainly be a steal though he's not on this list yet.
 

Fatass

Registered User
Apr 17, 2017
23,953
15,665
Heiskanen is a massive steal with 5 out 8 years remaining. I can't remember where to look up theoretical "actual" value of his on-ice contribution but he's underpaid by a ton
And he’s young, so he’s getting even better during his contract. Same goes for Suzuki. Guys who sign big, long term deals when older tend to trend downward during the term. There are some exceptions, of course. Miller in Vancouver.
 

KrisLetAngry

MrJukeBoy
Dec 20, 2013
19,252
5,438
Saskatchewan
Barkov - 2 selkes, stanley cup, best 2-way forward in the league and 4 consecutive PPG+ seasons. Sets the bar for Florida`s players

Tkachuk - 3 consecutive PPG+ seasons. Hard-nosed player who make space for his teammates and is very hard to play against.

Heiskanen - Top5 young 1D in the league. Very good 2-way player

Hughes - Tremendous young 1C with 3 consecutive PPG+ seasons at a VERY good deal. Top10 C in the league.

Suzuki - Young 1C and captain of the Canadians. Gets better every year and sets the bar for the teams rebuild as their best player and Captain

RNH - Reliable 2-way C/W, who you can put on ice in any situation. Is on a VERY cheap contract for what he brings. One of the best contracts in the league.
RNH - was a steal the day he signed. It was admittedly a discount the day it was signed.

From this list to add 2 guys

Charlie McAvoy & Hampus Lindholm.

Lindholm did not know his worth or did and took a discount.

McAvoy could be making 11 or 12.

Nichuskin - if he stays away from everything is worth every penny.
 
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Beukeboom Fan

Registered User
Feb 27, 2002
16,151
2,106
Chicago, IL
Visit site
So whenever a "star/prospect" player is signed to a long term contract, unmistakently you will get the STEAL comment "that contract will be a steal in 3 years" etc... Below is a list of all 25 current players with 4-5 years remaining on an 8 years contract. Do you see many that qualify as a steal?
**credit: data found on puckpedia**




1 Barkov, Aleksander 29C
Yr 3 of 8
8$10,000,0002029-30 UFA
2 Jones, Seth 29D
Yr 3 of 8
8$9,500,0002029-30 UFA
3 McAvoy, Charlie 26D
Yr 3 of 8
8$9,500,0002029-30 UFA
4 Tkachuk, Matthew 26L
Yr 3 of 8
8$9,500,0002029-30 UFA
5 Point, Brayden 28C
Yr 3 of 8
8$9,500,0002029-30 UFA
6 Nurse, Darnell 29D
Yr 3 of 8
8$9,250,0002029-30 UFA
7 Zibanejad, Mika 31C
Yr 3 of 8
8$8,500,0002029-30 UFA
8 Forsberg, Filip 30C
Yr 3 of 8
8$8,500,0002029-30 UFA
9 Heiskanen, Miro 25D
Yr 4 of 8
8$8,450,0002028-29 UFA
10 Hertl, Tomas 30C
Yr 3 of 8
8$8,137,5002029-30 UFA
11 Hughes, Jack 23C
Yr 3 of 8
8$8,000,0002029-30 UFA
12 Norris, Joshua 25C
Yr 3 of 8
8$7,950,0002029-30 UFA
13 Suzuki, Nick 25C
Yr 3 of 8
8$7,875,0002029-30 UFA
14 Svechnikov, Andrei 24R
Yr 4 of 8
8$7,750,0002028-29 UFA
15 Couturier, Sean 31C
Yr 3 of 8
8$7,750,0002029-30 UFA
16 Rielly, Morgan 30D
Yr 3 of 8
8$7,500,0002029-30 UFA
17 Landeskog, Gabriel 31L
Yr 4 of 8
8$7,000,0002028-29 UFA
18 Lindholm, Hampus 30D
Yr 3 of 8
8$6,500,0002029-30 UFA
19 Parayko, Colton 31D
Yr 3 of 8
8$6,500,0002029-30 UFA
20 Pulock, Ryan 29D
Yr 3 of 8
8$6,150,0002029-30 UFA
21 Nichushkin, Valeri 29R
Yr 3 of 8
8$6,125,0002029-30 UFA
22 Pelech, Adam 30D
Yr 4 of 8
8$5,750,0002028-29 UFA
23 Eriksson Ek, Joel 27C
Yr 4 of 8
8$5,250,0002028-29 UFA
24 Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan 31C
Yr 4 of 8
8$5,125,0002028-29 UFA
25 Kotkaniemi, Jesperi 24C
Yr 3 of 8
8$4,820,0002029-30 UFA
I think you need to separate the guys who got 8 year deal coming off their ELC (Hughes, Heiskanen, Kotkaniemi, Berniers, Stutzle, etc.) vs. guys who were about to reach UFA status who signed 8 years deals (Barkov, M. Tkachuk, Landeskog, Nurse, Jones, etc.). You typically don't get "bargain" on any contracts where most were UFA years. For the young guys the team is betting on them reaching star/superstar status (aka - the Jack Hughes), and they are praying they avoid the guys who hit the wall (aka - the Kotkaniemi).
 

StreetHawk

Registered User
Sep 30, 2017
29,191
11,313
Ideal to separate the list by 2nd contract and 3rd contract.

Couturier was like 30 when he contract began. So, guys like that are not expected to be steals. MacAvoy came off a 3 year bridge so he was like 25 so his 8 year term would not have declining years. Paying for all premium years.
The kids who began at 21-23 are the most likely to be a steal.
 

innitfam

Registered User
Oct 18, 2017
3,204
2,507
Barkov - 2 selkes, stanley cup, best 2-way forward in the league and 4 consecutive PPG+ seasons. Sets the bar for Florida`s players

Tkachuk - 3 consecutive PPG+ seasons. Hard-nosed player who make space for his teammates and is very hard to play against.

Heiskanen - Top5 young 1D in the league. Very good 2-way player

Hughes - Tremendous young 1C with 3 consecutive PPG+ seasons at a VERY good deal. Top10 C in the league.

Suzuki - Young 1C and captain of the Canadians. Gets better every year and sets the bar for the teams rebuild as their best player and Captain

RNH - Reliable 2-way C/W, who you can put on ice in any situation. Is on a VERY cheap contract for what he brings. One of the best contracts in the league.

I'd add JEE to this list too but otherwise agreed
 

ThatGuy22

Registered User
Oct 11, 2011
10,748
4,418
JEE is probably the biggest one. When he signed he had never cracked 30 points or 20 goals. Mostly known for his shut down defense.

Since he signed, offense has really blossomed. Last three years he's avg'd around 25, cracking 30 last year. Athletic's player value's has him worth 9 million.
 

Dr Jan Itor

Registered User
Dec 10, 2009
46,765
21,530
MinneSNOWta
So, would a "steal" be that if they signed the contract today, they'd be making ~50% more? Or is the threshold less than that?

Because if somebody was making $8M and would/should be ~$10M, I'd consider that a very nice contract, but not necessarily a "steal".
 
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Chainshot

Give 'em Enough Rope
Sponsor
Feb 28, 2002
156,420
110,847
Tarnation
From that list:

Heiskanen
JHughes
HLindholm
JEE
Nuge
Suzuki

...I would rate as all underpaid. Some are for sure right about where it feels they are appropriate, a couple have been derailed by injury but fewer than the ones that have hit.
 

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