Value of: Players with 4-5 years remaining on an 8 years contract, where are the steals?

[Zennon]

So whenever a "star/prospect" player is signed to a long term contract, unmistakently you will get the STEAL comment "that contract will be a steal in 3 years" etc... Below is a list of all 25 current players with 4-5 years remaining on an 8 years contract. Do you see many that qualify as a steal?
**credit: data found on puckpedia**

1	Barkov, Aleksander		29	C	Yr 3 of 8	8	$10,000,000	2029-30	UFA
2	Jones, Seth		29	D	Yr 3 of 8	8	$9,500,000	2029-30	UFA
3	McAvoy, Charlie		26	D	Yr 3 of 8	8	$9,500,000	2029-30	UFA
4	Tkachuk, Matthew		26	L	Yr 3 of 8	8	$9,500,000	2029-30	UFA
5	Point, Brayden		28	C	Yr 3 of 8	8	$9,500,000	2029-30	UFA
6	Nurse, Darnell		29	D	Yr 3 of 8	8	$9,250,000	2029-30	UFA
7	Zibanejad, Mika		31	C	Yr 3 of 8	8	$8,500,000	2029-30	UFA
8	Forsberg, Filip		30	C	Yr 3 of 8	8	$8,500,000	2029-30	UFA
9	Heiskanen, Miro		25	D	Yr 4 of 8	8	$8,450,000	2028-29	UFA
10	Hertl, Tomas		30	C	Yr 3 of 8	8	$8,137,500	2029-30	UFA
11	Hughes, Jack		23	C	Yr 3 of 8	8	$8,000,000	2029-30	UFA
12	Norris, Joshua		25	C	Yr 3 of 8	8	$7,950,000	2029-30	UFA
13	Suzuki, Nick		25	C	Yr 3 of 8	8	$7,875,000	2029-30	UFA
14	Svechnikov, Andrei		24	R	Yr 4 of 8	8	$7,750,000	2028-29	UFA
15	Couturier, Sean		31	C	Yr 3 of 8	8	$7,750,000	2029-30	UFA
16	Rielly, Morgan		30	D	Yr 3 of 8	8	$7,500,000	2029-30	UFA
17	Landeskog, Gabriel		31	L	Yr 4 of 8	8	$7,000,000	2028-29	UFA
18	Lindholm, Hampus		30	D	Yr 3 of 8	8	$6,500,000	2029-30	UFA
19	Parayko, Colton		31	D	Yr 3 of 8	8	$6,500,000	2029-30	UFA
20	Pulock, Ryan		29	D	Yr 3 of 8	8	$6,150,000	2029-30	UFA
21	Nichushkin, Valeri		29	R	Yr 3 of 8	8	$6,125,000	2029-30	UFA
22	Pelech, Adam		30	D	Yr 4 of 8	8	$5,750,000	2028-29	UFA
23	Eriksson Ek, Joel		27	C	Yr 4 of 8	8	$5,250,000	2028-29	UFA
24	Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan		31	C	Yr 4 of 8	8	$5,125,000	2028-29	UFA
25	Kotkaniemi, Jesperi		24	C	Yr 3 of 8	8	$4,820,000	2029-30	UFA

Click to read more...

 

[DearDiary]

Jack Hughes

 

[jonlin]

Barkov - 2 selkes, stanley cup, best 2-way forward in the league and 4 consecutive PPG+ seasons. Sets the bar for Florida`s players

Tkachuk - 3 consecutive PPG+ seasons. Hard-nosed player who make space for his teammates and is very hard to play against.

Heiskanen - Top5 young 1D in the league. Very good 2-way player

Hughes - Tremendous young 1C with 3 consecutive PPG+ seasons at a VERY good deal. Top10 C in the league.

Suzuki - Young 1C and captain of the Canadians. Gets better every year and sets the bar for the teams rebuild as their best player and Captain

RNH - Reliable 2-way C/W, who you can put on ice in any situation. Is on a VERY cheap contract for what he brings. One of the best contracts in the league.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

The cap has only increased once by anything meaningful in the last 3 years, and we havent played a single game under that new cap yet. With the exception of a couple that were instantly steals (Nuge, Rielly, Hughes, and maybe Heiskanen) it's pretty hard to judge them as steals or not yet. Especially when you have guys like Couturier, Norris, and Landeskog who have all missed significant time due to injuries since signing those deals. I would say give it at least 1 more year for the cap to go up another ~5M then come back to this.

For example Hampus Lindholm signed for 7.88% of the cap in 22/23, next year when the cap is ~93M that cap% will drop to 6.99%. Nearly 1% less of the cap.

 

[FoxYou727]

In no order

RNH
Joel Erkisson Ek
Miro
Tkachuk
Hughes

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Miro immediately stands out.

 

[Michoulicious]

Hughes, Suzuki, Heiskanen, RNH. That's about it.

Erkisson-Ek is very good value as well. Svech would be good, but too many injuries.

 

[TotalHomer]

Heiskanen, Eriksson Ek, Tkachuk, Barkov.

Nurse is stealing money.

 

[FerrisRox]

Barkov - 2 selkes, stanley cup, best 2-way forward in the league and 4 consecutive PPG+ seasons. Sets the bar for Florida`s players

Tkachuk - 3 consecutive PPG+ seasons. Hard-nosed player who make space for his teammates and is very hard to play against.

Heiskanen - Top5 young 1D in the league. Very good 2-way player

Hughes - Tremendous young 1C with 3 consecutive PPG+ seasons at a VERY good deal. Top10 C in the league.

Suzuki - Young 1C and captain of the Canadians. Gets better every year and sets the bar for the teams rebuild as their best player and Captain

RNH - Reliable 2-way C/W, who you can put on ice in any situation. Is on a VERY cheap contract for what he brings. One of the best contracts in the league.

This is the *exact* same list I was just about to post. Literally the identical list of players.

 

[Reality Czech]

I don't think teams expect "steals" but they'll be happy to get good value once the cap and salaries continue to rise. There are a number of good value deals on that list that may look even better in a couple years. I can't speak for all fan bases but as a Blues fan I'm happy to have Parayko locked in at that number. Thomas will almost certainly be a steal though he's not on this list yet.

 

[Fatass]

Suzuki and Heiskanen would sure look good on any club. And both on excellent contracts.

 

[topseed]

I'm a huge Hughes fan and that contract is absolutely magnificent.

 

[piqued]

Heiskanen is a massive steal with 5 out 8 years remaining. I can't remember where to look up theoretical "actual" value of his on-ice contribution but he's underpaid by a ton

 

[Fatass]

Heiskanen is a massive steal with 5 out 8 years remaining. I can't remember where to look up theoretical "actual" value of his on-ice contribution but he's underpaid by a ton

And he’s young, so he’s getting even better during his contract. Same goes for Suzuki. Guys who sign big, long term deals when older tend to trend downward during the term. There are some exceptions, of course. Miller in Vancouver.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

Barkov - 2 selkes, stanley cup, best 2-way forward in the league and 4 consecutive PPG+ seasons. Sets the bar for Florida`s players

Tkachuk - 3 consecutive PPG+ seasons. Hard-nosed player who make space for his teammates and is very hard to play against.

Heiskanen - Top5 young 1D in the league. Very good 2-way player

Hughes - Tremendous young 1C with 3 consecutive PPG+ seasons at a VERY good deal. Top10 C in the league.

Suzuki - Young 1C and captain of the Canadians. Gets better every year and sets the bar for the teams rebuild as their best player and Captain

RNH - Reliable 2-way C/W, who you can put on ice in any situation. Is on a VERY cheap contract for what he brings. One of the best contracts in the league.

RNH - was a steal the day he signed. It was admittedly a discount the day it was signed.

From this list to add 2 guys

Charlie McAvoy & Hampus Lindholm.

Lindholm did not know his worth or did and took a discount.

McAvoy could be making 11 or 12.

Nichuskin - if he stays away from everything is worth every penny.

 

[Beukeboom Fan]

So whenever a "star/prospect" player is signed to a long term contract, unmistakently you will get the STEAL comment "that contract will be a steal in 3 years" etc... Below is a list of all 25 current players with 4-5 years remaining on an 8 years contract. Do you see many that qualify as a steal?
**credit: data found on puckpedia**

1	Barkov, Aleksander		29	C	Yr 3 of 8	8	$10,000,000	2029-30	UFA
2	Jones, Seth		29	D	Yr 3 of 8	8	$9,500,000	2029-30	UFA
3	McAvoy, Charlie		26	D	Yr 3 of 8	8	$9,500,000	2029-30	UFA
4	Tkachuk, Matthew		26	L	Yr 3 of 8	8	$9,500,000	2029-30	UFA
5	Point, Brayden		28	C	Yr 3 of 8	8	$9,500,000	2029-30	UFA
6	Nurse, Darnell		29	D	Yr 3 of 8	8	$9,250,000	2029-30	UFA
7	Zibanejad, Mika		31	C	Yr 3 of 8	8	$8,500,000	2029-30	UFA
8	Forsberg, Filip		30	C	Yr 3 of 8	8	$8,500,000	2029-30	UFA
9	Heiskanen, Miro		25	D	Yr 4 of 8	8	$8,450,000	2028-29	UFA
10	Hertl, Tomas		30	C	Yr 3 of 8	8	$8,137,500	2029-30	UFA
11	Hughes, Jack		23	C	Yr 3 of 8	8	$8,000,000	2029-30	UFA
12	Norris, Joshua		25	C	Yr 3 of 8	8	$7,950,000	2029-30	UFA
13	Suzuki, Nick		25	C	Yr 3 of 8	8	$7,875,000	2029-30	UFA
14	Svechnikov, Andrei		24	R	Yr 4 of 8	8	$7,750,000	2028-29	UFA
15	Couturier, Sean		31	C	Yr 3 of 8	8	$7,750,000	2029-30	UFA
16	Rielly, Morgan		30	D	Yr 3 of 8	8	$7,500,000	2029-30	UFA
17	Landeskog, Gabriel		31	L	Yr 4 of 8	8	$7,000,000	2028-29	UFA
18	Lindholm, Hampus		30	D	Yr 3 of 8	8	$6,500,000	2029-30	UFA
19	Parayko, Colton		31	D	Yr 3 of 8	8	$6,500,000	2029-30	UFA
20	Pulock, Ryan		29	D	Yr 3 of 8	8	$6,150,000	2029-30	UFA
21	Nichushkin, Valeri		29	R	Yr 3 of 8	8	$6,125,000	2029-30	UFA
22	Pelech, Adam		30	D	Yr 4 of 8	8	$5,750,000	2028-29	UFA
23	Eriksson Ek, Joel		27	C	Yr 4 of 8	8	$5,250,000	2028-29	UFA
24	Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan		31	C	Yr 4 of 8	8	$5,125,000	2028-29	UFA
25	Kotkaniemi, Jesperi		24	C	Yr 3 of 8	8	$4,820,000	2029-30	UFA

I think you need to separate the guys who got 8 year deal coming off their ELC (Hughes, Heiskanen, Kotkaniemi, Berniers, Stutzle, etc.) vs. guys who were about to reach UFA status who signed 8 years deals (Barkov, M. Tkachuk, Landeskog, Nurse, Jones, etc.). You typically don't get "bargain" on any contracts where most were UFA years. For the young guys the team is betting on them reaching star/superstar status (aka - the Jack Hughes), and they are praying they avoid the guys who hit the wall (aka - the Kotkaniemi).

 

[Dickie Dunn]

Ek is a steal for what he provides to the Wild.

 

[dirtydanglez]

Jack Hughes

probably the best contract in the league at this point

 

[StreetHawk]

Ideal to separate the list by 2nd contract and 3rd contract.

Couturier was like 30 when he contract began. So, guys like that are not expected to be steals. MacAvoy came off a 3 year bridge so he was like 25 so his 8 year term would not have declining years. Paying for all premium years.
The kids who began at 21-23 are the most likely to be a steal.

 

[DFC]

Is it just me or do over half of those look pretty good?

 

[innitfam]

Barkov - 2 selkes, stanley cup, best 2-way forward in the league and 4 consecutive PPG+ seasons. Sets the bar for Florida`s players

Tkachuk - 3 consecutive PPG+ seasons. Hard-nosed player who make space for his teammates and is very hard to play against.

Heiskanen - Top5 young 1D in the league. Very good 2-way player

Hughes - Tremendous young 1C with 3 consecutive PPG+ seasons at a VERY good deal. Top10 C in the league.

Suzuki - Young 1C and captain of the Canadians. Gets better every year and sets the bar for the teams rebuild as their best player and Captain

RNH - Reliable 2-way C/W, who you can put on ice in any situation. Is on a VERY cheap contract for what he brings. One of the best contracts in the league.

I'd add JEE to this list too but otherwise agreed

 

[ThatGuy22]

JEE is probably the biggest one. When he signed he had never cracked 30 points or 20 goals. Mostly known for his shut down defense.

Since he signed, offense has really blossomed. Last three years he's avg'd around 25, cracking 30 last year. Athletic's player value's has him worth 9 million.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

So, would a "steal" be that if they signed the contract today, they'd be making ~50% more? Or is the threshold less than that?

Because if somebody was making $8M and would/should be ~$10M, I'd consider that a very nice contract, but not necessarily a "steal".

 

[Chainshot]

From that list:

Heiskanen
JHughes
HLindholm
JEE
Nuge
Suzuki

...I would rate as all underpaid. Some are for sure right about where it feels they are appropriate, a couple have been derailed by injury but fewer than the ones that have hit.

 

[smytty]

This list is only for 8 year deals, but Zach Hyman signed for 7 years (max length) and that contract is definitely a steal.