Speculation: Player Discussion: Will Smith

[karltonian]

Copying this from the other thread, since I did the work:

The top 10 skaters Eklund played with during his 1st two NHL seasons, in order:

Tomas Hertl	C
Erik Karlsson	D
James Reimer	G
Logan Couture	C
Kaapo Kahkonen	G
Mario Ferraro	D
Adin Hill	G
Fabian Zetterlund	L
Rudolfs Balcers	L
Alexander Barabanov	L
Brent Burns	D
Marc-Edouard Vlasic	D
Kevin Labanc	R

This is what Smith has been dealing with, which oddly I didn't realize he played so much with Zetterlund. But this is absolutely abysmal:

Vitek Vanecek	G
Fabian Zetterlund	L
Luke Kunin	C
Barclay Goodrow	C
Mackenzie Blackwood	G
Henry Thrun	D
Cody Ceci	D
Jake Walman	D
Mario Ferraro	D
Jan Rutta	D
Matthew Benning	D
Klim Kostin	C

Bonus work!

Hertl's first season:

Antti Niemi	G
Joe Thornton	C
Brent Burns	D
Jason Demers	D
Dan Boyle	D
Scott Hannan	D
Marc-Edouard Vlasic	D
Brad Stuart	D
Justin Braun	D
Tommy Wingels	C
Matt Irwin	D

Couture's first season:

Evgeni Nabokov	G
Dan Boyle	D
Kent Huskins	D
Douglas Murray	D
Manny Malhotra	C
Marc-Edouard Vlasic	D
Dany Heatley	L
Torrey Mitchell	C
Rob Blake	D
Ryane Clowe	L
Niclas Wallin	D

Timo's first season:

Martin Jones	G
Chris Tierney	C
Brenden Dillon	D
Justin Braun	D
Brent Burns	D
Paul Martin	D
David Schlemko	D
Joel Ward	R
Marc-Edouard Vlasic	D
Joonas Donskoi	R
Aaron Dell	G
Joe Pavelski	C

So the idea that other Sharks top prospects had to deal with this is not true at all. We are not imagining Will's situation being terrible. Almost makes you wonder if a point is being made? I cannot think of any reason they would do this to their top prospect currently playing, assuming competence.

 

[Jargon]

Copying this from the other thread, since I did the work:

The top 10 skaters Eklund played with during his 1st two NHL seasons, in order:

Tomas Hertl	C
Erik Karlsson	D
James Reimer	G
Logan Couture	C
Kaapo Kahkonen	G
Mario Ferraro	D
Adin Hill	G
Fabian Zetterlund	L
Rudolfs Balcers	L
Alexander Barabanov	L
Brent Burns	D
Marc-Edouard Vlasic	D
Kevin Labanc	R

This is what Smith has been dealing with, which oddly I didn't realize he played so much with Zetterlund. But this is absolutely abysmal:

Vitek Vanecek	G
Fabian Zetterlund	L
Luke Kunin	C
Barclay Goodrow	C
Mackenzie Blackwood	G
Henry Thrun	D
Cody Ceci	D
Jake Walman	D
Mario Ferraro	D
Jan Rutta	D
Matthew Benning	D
Klim Kostin	C

Bonus work!

Hertl's first season:

Antti Niemi	G
Joe Thornton	C
Brent Burns	D
Jason Demers	D
Dan Boyle	D
Scott Hannan	D
Marc-Edouard Vlasic	D
Brad Stuart	D
Justin Braun	D
Tommy Wingels	C
Matt Irwin	D

Couture's first season:

Evgeni Nabokov	G
Dan Boyle	D
Kent Huskins	D
Douglas Murray	D
Manny Malhotra	C
Marc-Edouard Vlasic	D
Dany Heatley	L
Torrey Mitchell	C
Rob Blake	D
Ryane Clowe	L
Niclas Wallin	D

Timo's first season:

Martin Jones	G
Chris Tierney	C
Brenden Dillon	D
Justin Braun	D
Brent Burns	D
Paul Martin	D
David Schlemko	D
Joel Ward	R
Marc-Edouard Vlasic	D
Joonas Donskoi	R
Aaron Dell	G
Joe Pavelski	C

So the idea that other Sharks top prospects had to deal with this is not true at all. We are not imagining Will's situation being terrible. Almost makes you wonder if a point is being made?

Timo’s ain’t great but yeah, obviously those teams were a million times better.

 

[karltonian]

Timo’s ain’t great but yeah, obviously those teams were a million times better.

The forwards were lower line for that team, but every one is better than Smith's current two linemates, and the D is miles ahead.

EDIT: We were actually spoiled with talent on those teams ... Tierney and Donskoi along with Timo made up the 2nd line! That they seemed lesser talents is only because we had a top line of Marleau-Thornton-Pavelski.

 

[BaileyMacTavish]

I just feel like at some point, putting up donuts is kinda not okay and is a good sign maybe he's not NHL ready. But I know that sending him down isn't in the cards and was all foe it at first since all he needs tk do is get used to the NHL game speed. But man, I am just praying the other picks in 2023 pan out at this rate

 

[karltonian]

I just feel like at some point, putting up donuts is kinda not okay and is a good sign maybe he's not NHL ready. But I know that sending him down isn't in the cards and was all foe it at first since all he needs tk do is get used to the NHL game speed. But man, I am just praying the other picks in 2023 pan out at this rate

Please don't miss my post a few above, it really helped me crystallize my take. Smith is being absolutely destroyed and he's literally our best prospect to play in 26 years. I don't care what they think the plan is for him, this ain't it. This is malfeasance.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Copying this from the other thread, since I did the work:

The top 10 skaters Eklund played with during his 1st two NHL seasons, in order:

Tomas Hertl	C
Erik Karlsson	D
James Reimer	G
Logan Couture	C
Kaapo Kahkonen	G
Mario Ferraro	D
Adin Hill	G
Fabian Zetterlund	L
Rudolfs Balcers	L
Alexander Barabanov	L
Brent Burns	D
Marc-Edouard Vlasic	D
Kevin Labanc	R

This is what Smith has been dealing with, which oddly I didn't realize he played so much with Zetterlund. But this is absolutely abysmal:

Vitek Vanecek	G
Fabian Zetterlund	L
Luke Kunin	C
Barclay Goodrow	C
Mackenzie Blackwood	G
Henry Thrun	D
Cody Ceci	D
Jake Walman	D
Mario Ferraro	D
Jan Rutta	D
Matthew Benning	D
Klim Kostin	C

Bonus work!

Hertl's first season:

Antti Niemi	G
Joe Thornton	C
Brent Burns	D
Jason Demers	D
Dan Boyle	D
Scott Hannan	D
Marc-Edouard Vlasic	D
Brad Stuart	D
Justin Braun	D
Tommy Wingels	C
Matt Irwin	D

Couture's first season:

Evgeni Nabokov	G
Dan Boyle	D
Kent Huskins	D
Douglas Murray	D
Manny Malhotra	C
Marc-Edouard Vlasic	D
Dany Heatley	L
Torrey Mitchell	C
Rob Blake	D
Ryane Clowe	L
Niclas Wallin	D

Timo's first season:

Martin Jones	G
Chris Tierney	C
Brenden Dillon	D
Justin Braun	D
Brent Burns	D
Paul Martin	D
David Schlemko	D
Joel Ward	R
Marc-Edouard Vlasic	D
Joonas Donskoi	R
Aaron Dell	G
Joe Pavelski	C

So the idea that other Sharks top prospects had to deal with this is not true at all. We are not imagining Will's situation being terrible. Almost makes you wonder if a point is being made? I cannot think of any reason they would do this to their top prospect currently playing, assuming competence.

I think you have the cause and effect backwards.

Take Meier. He had poor linemates because he struggled! He didn't earn promotion to better linemates. You wouldn't have looked at his sophomoric game and blamed the coach for not giving him better linemates.

In contrast, over a full season Hertl and Couture has better linemates because they played very well and displaced those ahead of them. Neither player played where they didn't belong.

You should repeat the analysis just looking at the first 10 games for each player.

 

[karltonian]

I think you have the cause and effect backwards.

Take Meier. He had poor linemates because he struggled!

Revisionist history.

Looking at the first 10 games for Timo, for the first 8 he played with the same guys, Tierney and Donskoi, which was deployed as the 2nd line. He then got a look on the top line with Jumbo and Pavelski from the 9th to 12th game before going back to Tierney's line where he stayed for the rest of the season (lots of line blending esp late season and all bets were off after Thornton got hurt).

 

[Jargon]

Please don't miss my post a few above, it really helped me crystallize my take. Smith is being absolutely destroyed and he's literally our best prospect to play in 26 years. I don't care what they think the plan is for him, this ain't it. This is malfeasance.

I’m not sure he’s being *destroyed*. The advanced stats show he’s doing, like, fine, aren’t they? He just hasn’t managed to show what he can really do yet and, again, hopefully when Celebrini comes back and he gets Granlund on his line, they can get a little chemistry going. I did think this last game he had several really nice passes.

 

[one2gamble]

He needs minutes with good players. Warz is trying to win games so he's not going to do that. Smith is going to have to force the issue if that's going to change

 

[OrrNumber4]

Revisionist history.

Looking at the first 10 games for Timo, for the first 8 he played with the same guys, Tierney and Donskoi, which was deployed as the 2nd line. He then got a look on the top line with Jumbo and Pavelski from the 9th to 12th game before going back to Tierney's line where he stayed for the rest of the season (lots of line blending esp late season and all bets were off after Thornton got hurt).

Seems like this is the revisionist history. Tierney and Donskoi were fourth-liners on that team, no?

This narrative that Kunin and Goodrow are dragging Smith down isn't fair; Smith is dragging himself down. He's still adjusting to the NHL speed and space.

 

[BaileyMacTavish]

Seems like this is the revisionist history. Tierney and Donskoi were fourth-liners on that team, no?

This narrative that Kunin and Goodrow are dragging Smith down isn't fair; Smith is dragging himself down. He's still adjusting to the NHL speed and space.

Hope he learns quick then. This is bumming me the hell out

 

[weastern bias]

Seems like this is the revisionist history. Tierney and Donskoi were fourth-liners on that team, no?

This narrative that Kunin and Goodrow are dragging Smith down isn't fair; Smith is dragging himself down. He's still adjusting to the NHL speed and space.

Yeah, Tierney never once played above a 3rd line role here and was usually the 4C, Donskoi played up and down the lineup anywhere from Jumbo's wing to the 4th line

Smith isn't being dragged down by his linemates, he's the worst player on that line by far, though he also isn't getting the benefit a lot of our past rookies had of playing with a player as good as Thornton or Marleau

He isn't an NHL player right now and his performance shows it, and that's not a problem because he's a kid, but keeping him on the big club might be a mistake

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Yeah, Tierney never once played above a 3rd line role here and was usually the 4C, Donskoi played up and down the lineup anywhere from Jumbo's wing to the 4th line

Smith isn't being dragged down by his linemates, he's the worst player on that line by far, though he also isn't getting the benefit a lot of our past rookies had of playing with a player as good as Thornton or Marleau

He isn't an NHL player right now and his performance shows it, and that's not a problem because he's a kid, but keeping him on the big club might be a mistake

It may be as it relates to Smith but it may not be. Some players do well developing by taking their lumps but it takes time to see that bear fruit. If everyone involved is alright with that happening, I'm okay with it because we're rebuilding and developing and this is part of that process. I just see some benefit for him to be in the AHL for some parts in this especially while the Barracuda are having some early success. Letting Smith take part in that for a while may help him adjust to the pro game.

 

[karltonian]

Seems like this is the revisionist history. Tierney and Donskoi were fourth-liners on that team, no?

This narrative that Kunin and Goodrow are dragging Smith down isn't fair; Smith is dragging himself down. He's still adjusting to the NHL speed and space.

Yeah, Tierney never once played above a 3rd line role here and was usually the 4C, Donskoi played up and down the lineup anywhere from Jumbo's wing to the 4th line

Smith isn't being dragged down by his linemates, he's the worst player on that line by far, though he also isn't getting the benefit a lot of our past rookies had of playing with a player as good as Thornton or Marleau

He isn't an NHL player right now and his performance shows it, and that's not a problem because he's a kid, but keeping him on the big club might be a mistake

No they were not. The fourth line on that team when Timo broke in was melker-wingels-wardo. Which was a great fourth line. Although couture was usually automatically thought of as the 2nd line center, by actual deployment Tierney's line was often getting more ice. It was probably thought of by fans as the 3rd line at the time.

In any event the point remains that his play did not determine his linemates, he played in the same line or higher though most of his early integration and had a far better situation than Smith, especially since Timo had games in the AHL.

 

[timorous me]

It may be as it relates to Smith but it may not be. Some players do well developing by taking their lumps but it takes time to see that bear fruit. If everyone involved is alright with that happening, I'm okay with it because we're rebuilding and developing and this is part of that process. I just see some benefit for him to be in the AHL for some parts in this especially while the Barracuda are having some early success. Letting Smith take part in that for a while may help him adjust to the pro game.

In a sense, I don't think he's adjusting that poorly. There are so many little things he's learning even through his struggles and mistakes, and we see glimmers of promise every game--moreso as the season's gone on.

The points are the glaring thing, and that's why (I mentioned this last night but I think it's worth repeating) I wish now that he'd get some PP1 time. He's skilled enough to do at least okay there (just swap him with Wennberg while Celebrini is out) and he'd even just stumble into a few points, which could lift the gorilla off his back while he continues to learn the harder aspects of the game centering the third line.

The inconsistencies in linemates and playing time have had their impacts, too; at least the linemates have been pretty much steadied, but his game action recently has been very choppy, both sitting out games and within the games he's played, like last night, where he never had a chance to get in a rhythm. And it's nothing against Kunin and Goodrow but you'd really like to see him play with one guy who had more skill and finishing ability. These guys are good at helping to retrieve pucks (that's a good thing!) but they're not good at keeping possession.

Smith is a guy whose game thrives on puck possession, and thinking offensively one step ahead of the action. He's just not in a position right now to use those abilities to his advantage (partly because he's processing so much other stuff--but if he learns that hard stuff now, instead of trying to in a few years, it's probably better in the long run).

 

[karltonian]

I’m not sure he’s being *destroyed*. The advanced stats show he’s doing, like, fine, aren’t they? He just hasn’t managed to show what he can really do yet and, again, hopefully when Celebrini comes back and he gets Granlund on his line, they can get a little chemistry going. I did think this last game he had several really nice passes.

By destroyed I mean he's getting absolute garbage to play with and is not set up for success the way other top prospects have been, including macklin. Tbh I don't see any reason not to give him a shot on the top line, or at least PP1.

Not sure what to expect as the result, we have not done this with a high prospect at least since before Logan.

 

[OrrNumber4]

By destroyed I mean he's getting absolute garbage to play with and is not set up for success the way other top prospects have been, including macklin. Tbh I don't see any reason not to give him a shot on the top line, or at least PP1.

Not sure what to expect as the result, we have not done this with a high prospect at least since before Logan.

I can see the argument that he should be set up with better finishing. That would be Toffoli or Zetterlund.

The problem is that Smith is a playmaker who can't make plays. His hands and vision are still adjusting to the NHL. He's still learning how to protect pucks and misdirect defenses. Playing with a better finisher won't change that.

The other issue is that Smith is still developing his secondary and tertiary skills. Whether that be goal-scoring, defensive play, forechecking, board-play, net-front presence, etc. he needs to, eventually, bring something else to the table. Couture, Pavelski, and Hertl had that from the start.

 

[karltonian]

I can see the argument that he should be set up with better finishing. That would be Toffoli or Zetterlund.

The problem is that Smith is a playmaker who can't make plays. His hands and vision are still adjusting to the NHL. He's still learning how to protect pucks and misdirect defenses. Playing with a better finisher won't change that.

The other issue is that Smith is still developing his secondary and tertiary skills. Whether that be goal-scoring, defensive play, forechecking, board-play, net-front presence, etc. he needs to, eventually, bring something else to the table. Couture, Pavelski, and Hertl had that from the start.

He's made enough plays that there should have been some result by now if he wasn't playing with absolute plugs. Again they are so bad he's drawing double teams as a rookie with no points. If his line can keep the other team honest, can hold the puck and make a disruptive play, Smith can probably operate rather than constantly being unable to develop offensive flow because his linemates are so inept.

Anyway it just feels like the Celebrini injury has paralyzed the development plan and it has not been adapted to the situation.

 

[OrrNumber4]

He's made enough plays that there should have been some result by now if he wasn't playing with absolute plugs.

Had he been playing with some better talent, I could see him having more points...but maybe just one "real" point, where he's making a significant contribution to the play.

Again they are so bad he's drawing double teams as a rookie with no points. If his line can keep the other team honest, can hold the puck and make a disruptive play, Smith can probably operate rather than constantly being unable to develop offensive flow because his linemates are so inept.

Just not seeing this "drawing double teams". I'm seeing him making questionable plays with the puck and trying out maneuvers that probably worked for him in uni.

 

[Hodge]

Smith is a lot younger and on an exponentially worse team than Couture, Hertl and Meier were when they made their NHL debuts. It makes no sense to compare them.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

In a sense, I don't think he's adjusting that poorly. There are so many little things he's learning even through his struggles and mistakes, and we see glimmers of promise every game--moreso as the season's gone on.

The points are the glaring thing, and that's why (I mentioned this last night but I think it's worth repeating) I wish now that he'd get some PP1 time. He's skilled enough to do at least okay there (just swap him with Wennberg while Celebrini is out) and he'd even just stumble into a few points, which could lift the gorilla off his back while he continues to learn the harder aspects of the game centering the third line.

The inconsistencies in linemates and playing time have had their impacts, too; at least the linemates have been pretty much steadied, but his game action recently has been very choppy, both sitting out games and within the games he's played, like last night, where he never had a chance to get in a rhythm. And it's nothing against Kunin and Goodrow but you'd really like to see him play with one guy who had more skill and finishing ability. These guys are good at helping to retrieve pucks (that's a good thing!) but they're not good at keeping possession.

Smith is a guy whose game thrives on puck possession, and thinking offensively one step ahead of the action. He's just not in a position right now to use those abilities to his advantage (partly because he's processing so much other stuff--but if he learns that hard stuff now, instead of trying to in a few years, it's probably better in the long run).

I agree but I also want to see someone like Gushchin get some PP1 time though I know Smith is rightfully the higher priority. But unless they go with five forwards, it's hard to justify taking one of Granlund, Eklund, Toffoli, or Zetterlund/Wennberg off there even for Smith right now. I think he's just going to have to wait until Celebrini comes back and forces someone like Wennberg back to the 2nd unit and they start balancing the opportunities a bit.

 

[tiburon12]

Smith is a lot younger and on an exponentially worse team than Couture, Hertl and Meier were when they made their NHL debuts. It makes no sense to compare them.

All of them had also played professional hockey before their debuts too, that's major regardless of the level of the league.

 

[Hodge]

All of them had also played professional hockey before their debuts too, that's major regardless of the level of the league.

The expectations for Smith just seem completely out of whack. We all knew he wasn't in the same class as the Bedard/Carlsson/Fantilli trio at the top of that draft. If he develops into a legit 55-60 point 2C at some point that's a great outcome. Those guys don't typically set the NHL on fire at 19 years old.

 

[gaucholoco3]

I wonder how much work he is doing in the weight room. He looked like he was skating through mud and looked slow with no explosion. He might have sore legs which is fine because developing strength is more important than accumulating points.

 

[LilLeeroy]

Smith's start to his career is reminiscent of Dylan Strome's, who even after a decade after being draft is still improving and looks like he is on pace for a career year.

Smith will figure it out, but there was really no reason for him to leave BC so soon. Even scouts that really liked him before the draft thought he needed at least 2-3 years in college.

Hopefully Grier/Hasso/Becher rushing him doesn't negatively impact his Sharks career like Strome's was for the Coyotes.