Rumor: Planning Ahead: 2019 Off-Season

[BigKing]

Anyone else think that finding out Tampa was having him at development camp led Blake to sign him now and allow for burning off a year of the ELC?

 

[redcard]

Anyone else think that finding out Tampa was having him at development camp led Blake to sign him now and allow for burning off a year of the ELC?

No, I think that was going to be a part of it regardless. Its an easy little incentive to give to get these guys to pick us.

But I posted this a bunch of times about Brickley last year, burning a year of an ELC isn't nearly as big a deal as everyone seems to think. Case and point: Brickley. We burned a year off his ELC last year by playing him in one game and now he will be an RFA...but what has he done to earn a raise? What will his cap hit be next year? 800k-1.2m? (not rhetorical, I haven't seen him play this year, so I don't know). A 2 year bridge deal takes him to RFA again at 26. If we sign him to a cheap 2 year bridge deal and he breaks out next year we still have him signed cheap for another year. Had we not burned the ELC year next year would be the "contract year" instead of this underwhelming year.

Really the only way burning a year on Lizotte can backfire is if he has a great year next year and suddenly we have to give him a massive raise.

 

[KopitarFAN]

No, I think that was going to be a part of it regardless. Its an easy little incentive to give to get these guys to pick us.

But I posted this a bunch of times about Brickley last year, burning a year of an ELC isn't nearly as big a deal as everyone seems to think. Case and point: Brickley. We burned a year off his ELC last year by playing him in one game and now he will be an RFA...but what has he done to earn a raise? What will his cap hit be next year? 800k-1.2m? (not rhetorical, I haven't seen him play this year, so I don't know). A 2 year bridge deal takes him to RFA again at 26. If we sign him to a cheap 2 year bridge deal and he breaks out next year we still have him signed cheap for another year. Had we not burned the ELC year next year would be the "contract year" instead of this underwhelming year.

Really the only way burning a year on Lizotte can backfire is if he has a great year next year and suddenly we have to give him a massive raise.

That would be a really good problem to have.

 

[crassbonanza]

It boils down to guaranteed money in a non guaranteed money system. Your argument assumes that Carter's entire contract is guaranteed. In a non 100% contract guaranteed world Carter and other players benefit from upfront money. If he signs for 50 million over 5 years, gets 25 guaranteed and 10 million bonus up front he is guaranteed to have 35 million and 10 from day one. He also has an opportunity to make money after being cut.

I feel like you are the one making assumptions. You are under the assumption that players would still sign the same style contracts, except large portions are not guaranteed. Do you think Carter is going to sign a contract with an 5 million AAV if only 5 years are guaranteed? Do you think that UFAs are not going to use their leverage to get the contracts guaranteed? The contract world changes drastically once the contracts are not guaranteed by the league and I don't think it is a preferable solution personally.

 

[Crownroyal21]

I don't think it's an issue of talent. A lot of the top prospects are either injured (Vilardi) or still playing for their respective teams (Kupari, Thomas, Anderson-Dolan...). Both LA and Ontario are at the bottom of the league, so whomever plays where doesn't have any consequence.

So in either to draw a prospect, they have to have a selling point. The Kings can't sell on being a great playoff team to win a free agent over. So what they do is essentially say, "If you sign with us, you can play a game". Doing so burns off a year of their entry level contract sooner so they can become a free agent sooner, plus they get paid more money in the NHL than the AHL.

It's not necessarily that Lizotte is that much better than prospects already in the system, but more so a tactic to lure him to sign with the Kings over some other team.

Ok. Thanks. Makes a lot of sense. The Carter thing, by the way, I think he will be better next year after that scary injury, but put him on the wing that is his natural position.

 

[KingsFan7824]

Richards had some impactful games during that 2014 run even in a fourth line role. Whenever Sutter tried to pair him with Carter and match up against opposing top lines, it was a disaster. But as a low minute 4C, he was good.

Regardless, you can’t pay a 4C $5 million a year. He should have been CBOed post-2014. If the Kings don’t win a Cup in 2014, it wouldn’t even have been a question.

If the Kings go out in 4 or 5 to the Sharks in 2014, or even lose to Chicago in Game 7, so many things probably would've been different. Voynov may have still done what he did, but Gaborik likely isn't re-signed, Greene likely isn't re-signed, Richards is bought out, etc. Not to mention the ripple after the summer of 2014. Lombardi likely doesn't get Sekera, even if Voynov is still gone, because there's no cockroach thing. Probably doesn't get Lucic, although Jones would likely still have been traded. No Versteeg or Lecavalier. Maybe they get something for Williams at the 2015 deadline. However unlikely, it might be possible they move on from Kopitar. Had that happened, Doughty doesn't re-sign. Carter is probably gone years ago, even before June 2017. No Gaborik, so no Phaneuf. One of those alternate history scenarios where the roster might've looked completely different than it currently does.

We're in a rebuild. You don't trade the younger player when he's proving he's got the right stuff (2nd in the NHL in sv pct, 4th in GAA) The market for so-called back up goalies is limited in trade return. You trade Campbell you won't get value, you lose an inexpensive contract, and he just might well turn into a terrific everyday NHL #1. Blake has more more chip season with Petersen since he is still exempt. Yep, that sucks for Petersen. You do everything you can to move Quick's cap and get the most value you can, even if it's not what we had hoped for.

That's the problem the Kings have in net. To move Quick, they'll likely lose value. Might be a question of, how much does it cost to move Quick vs. what do you get for Campbell? It's just another non-ideal situation the Kings have to contend with. Plus they have to worry about Campbell being a UFA next year, and they have Petersen. How long will they have Campbell if they keep him? How much do you pay a guy looking to make up for lost wages as he gets into his late 20's? The Kings are unlikely to come out ahead in any scenario. Goalies are tough to figure out. It's the most complicated position in hockey, because it's all or nothing. You either play an entire game, or sit an entire game. If a goalie doesn't play an entire game, something went wrong.

was absolutely not expecting him to see a game this season, that's really surprising

Knowing WD, he might say there hasn't been enough practice time, so he has to sit. Or, someone didn't get hurt, so you can't take someone out. Or whatever, it doesn't matter.

 

[DoktorJeep]

If we don’t get Hughes, then I think Blake has a basic plan for the roster in the off season. Management says they want to get younger, so I assume the following moves are made.

Buyout Jeff Carter and trade Kovalchuk while retaining salary.

Pick 4-6 in the draft and get one of the following players and play them in the nhl next year.

Cozens
Byram
Krebs
Turcotte

I think they pick the defenseman Byram, as I think he is most nhl ready for big minutes after Hughes and Kakko.

I also think Vilardi makes the team out of camp. Brodzinski and Leipsec aren’t retained. Kempe, Iafallo and Amadio are all resigned before camp.

So the plan for next year, probably with Toddy Mac behind the bench should be.

Iafallo Kopitar Brown
Grundstrom Kempe Toffoli
Clifford Vilardi Kupari
Wagner Amadio Lewis
Luff JAD

Byram Doughty
Forbort Walker
Phaneuf Martinez
MacDermid

Quick
Campbell

 

[KingsOfCali25]

And with Buffalo's win tonight, the worst the Kings can pick will be 6th OA

 

[SettlementRichie10]

And with Buffalo's win tonight, the worst the Kings can pick will be 6th OA

A lot of fantastic players in the top six. Hughes/Kakko are true superstars, but we should absolutely still be able to pick a future top six forward or top four defenseman between #3 - 6.

We really, really need Vilardi to become a healthy player in this league with or without Hughes/Kakko.

 

[kingsfan28]

Who?

 

[KopitarFAN]

Who?

Recently signed college free agent.

 

[KingsFan7824]

A lot of fantastic players in the top six. Hughes/Kakko are true superstars, but we should absolutely still be able to pick a future top six forward or top four defenseman between #3 - 6.

We really, really need Vilardi to become a healthy player in this league with or without Hughes/Kakko.

Yeah, if Vilardi is a bust, it'll be like 2007. Taking and missing on Hickey put them back a year. If they had taken Couture instead, or even Voracek, maybe they don't have to trade both Schenn and Simmonds for Richards. I know everything worked out in the end, but that trade did strip the team of some future depth. Because then they had to trade another 1st for Carter, in addition to the 1st that was traded for Penner, who ended up not being able to score much until the 2012 playoffs. Plus they took a Lombardi style chance on an injury prone Gagne, who didn't work out as well as Williams and Mitchell. Both Penner and Gagne sucking forced the Carter move. You wonder what would've happened had Penner and Gagne been healthy and/or productive. Does DL still get Carter? Because the top 2 lines would've been set. Luckily Carter came at a discount over what Columbus had to pay for him.

 

[Peter James Bond II]

Who?

Jeff Carter. He used to play hockey, at a pretty high level...with the Flyers and a 3 month stop over in Cbus and then was traded to the Kings in Feb 2012. Won 2 Cups
with them in 2012 and 2014.

Or do you mean Lizotte?

 

[BigKing]

No, I think that was going to be a part of it regardless. Its an easy little incentive to give to get these guys to pick us.

But I posted this a bunch of times about Brickley last year, burning a year of an ELC isn't nearly as big a deal as everyone seems to think. Case and point: Brickley. We burned a year off his ELC last year by playing him in one game and now he will be an RFA...but what has he done to earn a raise? What will his cap hit be next year? 800k-1.2m? (not rhetorical, I haven't seen him play this year, so I don't know). A 2 year bridge deal takes him to RFA again at 26. If we sign him to a cheap 2 year bridge deal and he breaks out next year we still have him signed cheap for another year. Had we not burned the ELC year next year would be the "contract year" instead of this underwhelming year.

Really the only way burning a year on Lizotte can backfire is if he has a great year next year and suddenly we have to give him a massive raise.

I'm not worried about the year bring burned off but it is a benefit to Lizotte for signing now.

My point was more like "Tampa is on it?! Must be great. Sign him now!!!"

 

[johnjm22]

was absolutely not expecting him to see a game this season, that's really surprising

I don't think it's a surprise at all. I assume they promised him this as way to entice him to sign. They did the same thing with Brickley.

I think it's a way to get these guys a little extra cash. I'm not exactly sure how NHL players are compensated, but on top of his signing bonus, I think Lizotte will get about 5K per day while he's up with Kings. That doesn't sound like much for an NHL player, but it's a lot for 21 year old kid, and a lot more than he would be getting in Ontario.

 

[deaderhead28]

If we don’t get Hughes, then I think Blake has a basic plan for the roster in the off season. Management says they want to get younger, so I assume the following moves are made.

Buyout Jeff Carter and trade Kovalchuk while retaining salary.

Pick 4-6 in the draft and get one of the following players and play them in the nhl next year.

Cozens
Byram
Krebs
Turcotte

I think they pick the defenseman Byram, as I think he is most nhl ready for big minutes after Hughes and Kakko.

I also think Vilardi makes the team out of camp. Brodzinski and Leipsec aren’t retained. Kempe, Iafallo and Amadio are all resigned before camp.

So the plan for next year, probably with Toddy Mac behind the bench should be.

Iafallo Kopitar Brown
Grundstrom Kempe Toffoli
Clifford Vilardi Kupari
Wagner Amadio Lewis
Luff JAD

Byram Doughty
Forbort Walker
Phaneuf Martinez
MacDermid

Quick
Campbell

I doubt Kings buyout Carter and it makes zero sense to do so.Will he be traded?Sure,I just cant see the Kings buying out that contract.I would be shocked if Quick is on the roster starting next season as well.Vigneault is another coach I would keep a eye on,more established than McLellan.

 

[johnjm22]

I would be shocked if Quick is on the roster starting next season as well.

And how do you expect the Kings to be able to get rid of him?

He's near untradeable with that contract, and he has too many years left for a buyout to make sense.

 

[deaderhead28]

And how do you expect the Kings to be able to get rid of him?

He's near untradeable with that contract, and he has too many years left for a buyout to make sense.

I guess we'll have to wait to see come opening night.I can see Kings taking back a bad contract or retaining salary.Its been rumored by both Bernstein and Mayor teams are interested.

 

[LAKings88]

Phaneuf will be bought out.

Carter will either be traded with retention, retire, or they’ll be stuck with him.

I’d be ok with Byram if LA misses out on the top two. At this point I expect them to pick 6th. Will just help me be surprised if they pick any higher.

 

[KINGS17]

If the Kings go out in 4 or 5 to the Sharks in 2014, or even lose to Chicago in Game 7, so many things probably would've been different. Voynov may have still done what he did, but Gaborik likely isn't re-signed, Greene likely isn't re-signed, Richards is bought out, etc. Not to mention the ripple after the summer of 2014. Lombardi likely doesn't get Sekera, even if Voynov is still gone, because there's no cockroach thing. Probably doesn't get Lucic, although Jones would likely still have been traded. No Versteeg or Lecavalier. Maybe they get something for Williams at the 2015 deadline. However unlikely, it might be possible they move on from Kopitar. Had that happened, Doughty doesn't re-sign. Carter is probably gone years ago, even before June 2017. No Gaborik, so no Phaneuf. One of those alternate history scenarios where the roster might've looked completely different than it currently does.

Winning in 2014 should not have stopped Lombardi from doing an honest assessment of the roster in the summers of 2014, 2015, and 2016. In the summer of 2014 it was time to move on from Mike Richards. In the summer of 2015 it would harder to make some of the decisions required, but losing Voynov and Sekera along with missing the playoffs should have been a signal the trend was moving in a downward trajectory. The 4-1 loss in the playoffs to San Jose in the following season should have confirmed that the window was closing.

Internally it is hard to believe Dean didn't see there was a leadership vacuum after the departure of Williams, Mitchell, and Richards. The remaining guys that needed to step up were satisfied by what had already been accomplished and were looking to cash in on past performance.

 

[member 88115]

I hope no one is bought out, the last thing we need is more wasted cap $$$ when we are ready to compete. Worst case, send them those wasted vets to Ontario and gain close to a mil of cap space, which is close to what a rookie makes.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

I hope no one is bought out, the last thing we need is more wasted cap $$$ when we are ready to compete. Worst case, send them those wasted vets to Ontario and gain close to a mil of cap space, which is close to what a rookie makes.

Can’t do that with Phaneuf, and those players with big contracts don’t have two-way deals, so your suggestion won’t work. You can’t just bury a contract in the minors anymore.

 

[lumbergh]

Can’t do that with Phaneuf, and those players with big contracts don’t have two-way deals, so your suggestion won’t work. You can’t just bury a contract in the minors anymore.

If there's a player that gets bought out this summer, I predict it will be Phaneuf. He knows it's the end of the line; every body knows. The healthy scratches, huge minus in +/-, 6 points in 65 games. He's just in the way of younger players now. He's taking it like a pro, but it's not like he's going to get faster or think any faster next year.

You might say the same thing about Carter, but he can still contribute on the wing.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

If there's a player that gets bought out this summer, I predict it will be Phaneuf. He knows it's the end of the line; every body knows. The healthy scratches, huge minus in +/-, 6 points in 65 games. He's just in the way of younger players now. He's taking it like a pro, but it's not like he's going to get faster or think any faster next year.

You might say the same thing about Carter, but he can still contribute on the wing.

And a Phaneuf buyout isn’t going to severely impair the team’s future plans. They’re not going to be competitive until an infusion of fresh, young talent steps in to play integral roles, and they’re not going to be spending recklessly in free agency any time soon.

We might see a few deals where the Kings retain to move on from a Carter or Quick.

 

[redcard]

I think it's a way to get these guys a little extra cash. I'm not exactly sure how NHL players are compensated, but on top of his signing bonus, I think Lizotte will get about 5K per day while he's up with Kings. That doesn't sound like much for an NHL player, but it's a lot for 21 year old kid, and a lot more than he would be getting in Ontario.

Yeah, that's pretty spot on. Base salary divided by days in the season multiplied by days on the roster. So there's ~180 days in the season, his base salary is 832.5k so he'll get somewhere around 4.6k for every day plus the 92k signing bonus. Minors salary is 70k so that's about 400 per day. So, yeah, nice little chunk of change for a guy that was a college kid last week.