Rumor: Planning Ahead: 2019 Off-Season Part 2

[DoktorJeep]

AEG is 100% about the bottom line. No way they sign off on a management plan built around tanking while also being a team that spends close to the cap or has individuals making $50m+ contracts.

BLucs lack of foresight and indecisiveness shows they don’t know how to placate AEG and come up with strategies to both restock the pipeline and reduce the salary commitments.

 

[LAKings88]

I don't want to be "rah-rah" prospects guy, but JAD actually played NHL games last season and could be a 2nd line player if it all shakes out. He's a little better than "meh" for me.

As for it being a tank year, it is in the sense that I don't see Management actively trying to make the team better. They will most likely have a better season with a competent coach and the fact that it would be hard to replicate last season's horrible performances.

Agree we need impact players on ELC's as that has been a glaring problem for years now; however: we don't need them next season because next season doesn't matter. It will be a big deal though when salary is shed (Kovy/Phaneuf/Carter) and legit help can be traded for/signed to go along with the ELC guys.

I hope JAD is better than I expect. He seems like a Stoll replacement if lucky. I’ve seen to many guys tear up juniors only to become third fourth line centers.

 

[LAKings88]

Kopi and Doughty can still play. Motivation issues aside.

Need to lose Carter, Toffoli, Lewis, and likely Quick (Draft). Hope they play better and sell at the deadline, playoffs or not.

 

[KINGS17]

While I support using the draft, Sucking for the Top Picks isn't what it once was.

5OA is a great prospect - 1OA is a Star Player. How many seasons are you happy with getting 4 or 5 or 6 OA?

With the Lottery format today we have to have LUCK now WITH sucking. That's taking the probability down to a very low likelihood of success.

Example of then and now - Luke Schenn was the 5OA in Doughty's draft year. You think we win those cups with that guy over DD? Its a different story now, it changed in 2013 and 2016. With this Lottery format we are probably without 2 Cups if it was in place in 2008.

I'm 100% behind getting as many 1st & 2nd round picks as we can but I am not under any false illusion that sucking with equate to getting those star players that make a good hockey team. If they can improve the team with getting a very good or great player then they should be all over that as well so long as it doesn't cost any of the high round picks.

No, of course the Kings don't win with Luke Schenn instead of Drew Doughty. What are the odds of getting a top three pick if the Kings finish 17-22 in the NHL?

Yes, there is luck involved now in landing the highest picks, but without the opportunity to get lucky, you don't stand a chance. I don't think you have to necessarily have the best picks in the draft, just high picks, and as many of them as you can get when you are rebuilding.

I don't think the Kings are going to reload and be a very good team with the core of Quick, Doughty, and Kopitar. There is only one of the three who will still be a high-level player in three years, and he has questionable leadership skills. A GM today with a black hole team has to strip it down, and acquire as many future assets as possible to give himself a chance.

 

[KingsFan7824]

AEG is 100% about the bottom line. No way they sign off on a management plan built around tanking while also being a team that spends close to the cap or has individuals making $50m+ contracts.

BLucs lack of foresight and indecisiveness shows they don’t know how to placate AEG and come up with strategies to both restock the pipeline and reduce the salary commitments.

If they had foresight and decisiveness, would it matter, if they're working for an owner that wouldn't sign off on that foresight and decisiveness because of all the locked in money they're spending? Probably unfair to blame both at the same time. Pick one or the other.

They've already traded a big piece in Muzzin, with no clear or immediate replacement for him. Re-stocked the pipeline doing so. His money is going to Doughty, so they haven't decreased the commitments, but looking at this time next year, should they stick with the public ripping of the players on this team as not good enough to have a chance to win, a decent amount of actual money could start to chipped away at. Kopitar's salary goes down, Quick's goes down, Brown's goes down, Carter's goes down, Kovalchuk's goes down, Martinez's goes down by a couple bucks, and Toffoli, Lewis, Clifford, Forbort, and LaDue are all set to be UFA's. Nobody set to become an expensive RFA, unless Wagner gets 30 goals.

 

[Fishhead]

No, of course the Kings don't win with Luke Schenn instead of Drew Doughty. What are the odds of getting a top three pick if the Kings finish 17-22 in the NHL?

Yes, there is luck involved now in landing the highest picks, but without the opportunity to get lucky, you don't stand a chance. I don't think you have to necessarily have the best picks in the draft, just high picks, and as many of them as you can get when you are rebuilding.

I don't think the Kings are going to reload and be a very good team with the core of Quick, Doughty, and Kopitar. There is only one of the three who will still be a high-level player in three years, and he has questionable leadership skills. A GM today with a black hole team has to strip it down, and acquire as many future assets as possible to give himself a chance.

Agreed.

The only way this team is competitive soon is if the young guys we do have all hit their ceilings, along with the cap going up more than forecasted to reduce the impact of the big deals we have players signed to right now. AND they'll have to draft and develop well while shedding some dead weight.

That's s lot to go your way. Blowing a team up means you only have to deal with one of those, and that's drafting and development. It's much easier to do from a GM standpoint, but much more difficult to swallow from an ownership standpoint.

 

[King'sPawn]

While I support using the draft, Sucking for the Top Picks isn't what it once was.

5OA is a great prospect - 1OA is a Star Player. How many seasons are you happy with getting 4 or 5 or 6 OA?

With the Lottery format today we have to have LUCK now WITH sucking. That's taking the probability down to a very low likelihood of success.

Example of then and now - Luke Schenn was the 5OA in Doughty's draft year. You think we win those cups with that guy over DD? Its a different story now, it changed in 2013 and 2016. With this Lottery format we are probably without 2 Cups if it was in place in 2008.

I'm 100% behind getting as many 1st & 2nd round picks as we can but I am not under any false illusion that sucking with equate to getting those star players that make a good hockey team. If they can improve the team with getting a very good or great player then they should be all over that as well so long as it doesn't cost any of the high round picks.

The lottery just forces teams to be managed better.

I have more faith in #5 going to a team like Boston than #1 going to Edmonton.

So to answer your question, if the Kings get multiple #5 overall picks while being among the worst teams in the league, I'll take it as long as it takes.

If the Kings can't cultivate a star player at 5th overall, they will struggle with the 1st overall and need to reevaluate their infrastructure.

The sooner people stop counting on a lottery pick to bail them out, the better off the league will be.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

For sure but that’s not the current reality of Tankathons. NHLs ****ed up stupid ass lottery process now precludes that outcome. If you’re the worst team in the league it’s still not likely you’ll land a Doughty.

We’re in a different NHL now and Tanking is zero assurance of improvement. That’s just the reality of it all.

Hell the 2008 Kings had a slightly better record (same # of points) and a goal differential 26 goals better and got Doughty.

If we were playing by this year's rules, instead of Doughty, we'd have Schenn or Filatov.

It doesn't feel good to finish low in the standings and have better odds of getting punished than rewarded. It's almost better in a sense to be 10-11th is, because if you move up, Great! you're a big unexpected winner. If you don't, no big deal.

Generally speaking I like the anti tank rules and if it weren't my team being hurt I'd probably be less sympathetic, but everyone has to admit that part sucks.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Man, I want Martinez with a letter.

Alec Martinez on Kings' culture drop-off: 'The entitlement...

 

[DoktorJeep]

If they had foresight and decisiveness, would it matter, if they're working for an owner that wouldn't sign off on that foresight and decisiveness because of all the locked in money they're spending? Probably unfair to blame both at the same time. Pick one or the other.

They've already traded a big piece in Muzzin, with no clear or immediate replacement for him. Re-stocked the pipeline doing so. His money is going to Doughty, so they haven't decreased the commitments, but looking at this time next year, should they stick with the public ripping of the players on this team as not good enough to have a chance to win, a decent amount of actual money could start to chipped away at. Kopitar's salary goes down, Quick's goes down, Brown's goes down, Carter's goes down, Kovalchuk's goes down, Martinez's goes down by a couple bucks, and Toffoli, Lewis, Clifford, Forbort, and LaDue are all set to be UFA's. Nobody set to become an expensive RFA, unless Wagner gets 30 goals.

The Kings could have hired a Wendy’s manager and got similar results based on your description. My point being all those deals expire regardless of who is in charge. What is BLuc doing to accelerate that?

 

[KINGS17]

Man, I want Martinez with a letter.

Alec Martinez on Kings' culture drop-off: 'The entitlement...

Me too, which team? Assuming the Kings get a 1st round pick back in return.

 

[funky]

The problem I see is it is the beginning of the off season. We as fans have no idea what the front office will do but we know they will do something.

We have no top 6 save Kopitar who is still a stud #1 and we can’t deny Brown is still bringing it.

We have no top 4 defense outside of Doughty.

I won’t complain about goaltending, still believe in Quick if we actually put a competitive team out and I like Campbell and Pederson’s development if Quick is moved.

We have a new coach, with new optimism and what should be a new team spirit, confidence and will power to actually play and not sulk.

We have decent prospects in the pipeline and have enough picks this draft to supplement our quantity of decent prospects with a star prospect.

This team as it sits is teetering in no mans land. To good to pick first, to bad to win playoff rounds. We are the Calgary flames of the last decade.

I am not going to blame Blake, I am not going to blame Luc, because we do not know if they have free reign or if their hands are tied by the owners.

I do not want to blow it up and rebuild because the chances of us landing somebody as good as Kopitar and Doughty at the same time has to be under 10%. I know everybody believes that our players have to be 21 years old and not 30 but what we have witnessed in the last few cops shows completely the opposite. Yes the younger players may have more skills but the older players seem to have brains, the stamina, and the fortitude to go deep into the Stanley Cup run. I still think every team needs the proper veterans to move forward and I have no problem with Kopitar and Doughty being those veterans.

I have no problem if we ever got lucky enough to land a young free-agent superstar like Panarin as he will be productive for the next 5 to 6 years and has everything that we are looking for in a player and everything we are lacking.

Saying that I still think that the draft is extremely important and the kings can add through both free agency in combination with the draft in combination with key college free agent signings to build a proper team. I just don’t want them trading away draft picks at this point to acquire another aging player.

I think that this summer Blake will reveal his game plan and come this fall we may see a completely different team, not only roster wise, but in the style they play. I am going to give it another two months before I comment on this team is direction or what I think of management.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Me too, which team? Assuming the Kings get a 1st round pick back in return.

Thought the same as soon as I posted it.

I presume Kopitar and Doughty are going nowhere for reasons. The 'not quite immovable but auxiliary leader' guys are Brown and Martinez in my eyes, at least as far as positive influences combined with positive ability go. if they decide to hang onto Marty, I definitely get why, and I'd love him to have a letter. If not, yeah, hope to get a high pick back.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Martinez saying things some of us get chastised for. He must be a pessimist.

“Everyone will always talk about two Cups, the two Cups. At some point, you look back at it and it’s like, ‘well, the last one was five years ago. And we’ve won one playoff game in five years.’ It’s just something that myself and quite a few of the guys have talked about.”

 

[lumbergh]

Man, I want Martinez with a letter.

Alec Martinez on Kings' culture drop-off: 'The entitlement...

That’s a nice sentiment, considering half the posters are ready to trade him for picks.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

From LeBrun:

Outside of the Ducks, another SoCal club looking at a potential buyout is the Kings with Dion Phaneuf. Preferably L.A. would find a trade partner but if not, sources have confirmed that Kings GM Rob Blake is contemplating a buyout for the 34-year-old defenseman. He has two more years on his deal at a $5.25-million cap hit through the 2020-21 season.

 

[Sol]

I keep forgetting Phaneuf is on the Kings. Buy him out

 

[KingsFan7824]

Blowing a team up

It's difficult to blow a team up in a hard cap league. The only way the Kings could get rid of Gaborik, was to take on someone like Phaneuf. That, or giving up a serious asset with Gaborik. This just isn't 1999 anymore. If you want the Kings blown up, they had to do it in June 2014. Every day since, every player has lost value. You have to sell high. You had to time that market.

The Kings could have hired a Wendy’s manager and got similar results based on your description. My point being all those deals expire regardless of who is in charge. What is BLuc doing to accelerate that?

What do you think they can do to accelerate that? What youthful assets do you want them to give up to get rid of some of these contracts? There are no more Detroit's, NY's, or Toronto's to take whatever you have because money doesn't matter. It matters. It's easy to say get rid of players. To who? For what? Do you think they can clear these big contracts/old players for draft picks? Muzzin was in a perfect spot. He was on the younger side of what's left from the Cup teams, isn't locked up long term, and was actually playing fairly well. There's nobody else that fits that description. Everyone else is either old, and/or unproductive, and/or signed for 3 or 4 more years.

 

[DoktorJeep]

It's difficult to blow a team up in a hard cap league. The only way the Kings could get rid of Gaborik, was to take on someone like Phaneuf. That, or giving up a serious asset with Gaborik. This just isn't 1999 anymore. If you want the Kings blown up, they had to do it in June 2014. Every day since, every player has lost value. You have to sell high. You had to time that market.



What do you think they can do to accelerate that? What youthful assets do you want them to give up to get rid of some of these contracts? There are no more Detroit's, NY's, or Toronto's to take whatever you have because money doesn't matter. It matters. It's easy to say get rid of players. To who? For what? Do you think they can clear these big contracts/old players for draft picks? Muzzin was in a perfect spot. He was on the younger side of what's left from the Cup teams, isn't locked up long term, and was actually playing fairly well. There's nobody else that fits that description. Everyone else is either old, and/or unproductive, and/or signed for 3 or 4 more years.

They didn’t move other pieces that still have value and are tradeable because of multiple excuses. So let me save you the time defending management.

Toffoli kept because he’s going to bounce back and then when he’s good we’ll get a lot at next TDL.

Clifford not traded because of intangibles and sentimental reasons.

Martinez not traded because of concerns about the lack of remaining nhl depth on D.

Forbort not traded because he has zero value ( hello Adam McQuaid and that stiff on D Pittsburgh got in Oleksiak).

Oh but wait, all these guys will bounce back this year and then return a bunch of quality futures next TDL.

Lots of bad bets in their and it shows that Blake hasn’t learned from his previous mistakes or his predecessors mistakes about over valuing his players to the point they are write offs.

 

[The Tikkanen]

Clifford and Lewis are my 2 favorite whipping boys, I have no idea why these guys are still on the team other than Blake has called around and nobody wanted them.

 

[KingsFan7824]

They didn’t move other pieces that still have value and are tradeable because of multiple excuses. So let me save you the time defending management.

Toffoli kept because he’s going to bounce back and then when he’s good we’ll get a lot at next TDL.

Clifford not traded because of intangibles and sentimental reasons.

Martinez not traded because of concerns about the lack of remaining nhl depth on D.

Forbort not traded because he has zero value ( hello Adam McQuaid and that stiff on D Pittsburgh got in Oleksiak).

Oh but wait, all these guys will bounce back this year and then return a bunch of quality futures next TDL.

Lots of bad bets in their and it shows that Blake hasn’t learned from his previous mistakes or his predecessors mistakes about over valuing his players to the point they are write offs.

Was there a line to get Toffoli this year? I guess it depends on your definition of kept. If nobody wants you, you're not being choosy by living the single life.

Clifford, he isn't a guy anyone needs either. If the Kings are out of the race at the deadline next year, and he isn't dealt(assuming he's not re-signed for those stupid intangible and sentimental reasons), then rip Blake for it. Nobody needs Clifford with a year left on his deal though. He's not at that level. He's the perfect deadline rental.

Martinez, yeah, they can trade him any day they want. The sooner, the better. The problem, he's a borderline top 4D. If he's in your top 4, your top 3 better be really good, or else you're just going to be the Kings between 2014 and 2019. Does anyone really need what is ideally a 3rd pair D at $4m for multiple seasons? It's easy to say retain, but then AEG is 100% about the bottom line, and are still paying Richards to sit on a boat, and might be paying Phaneuf to do whatever.

McQuaid is a UFA, and even right handed. Forbort was neither of those this year, but at least he's a UFA after next year. I believe Oleksiak was traded back to Dallas for the pick Pittsburgh sent to Dallas to get him in the first place. Could say he was traded to Pittsburgh for a 4th a couple years ago, so why not get a 4th for Forbort? When Oleksiak was traded to Pittsburgh, he was on a contract for less then $1m, and was an RFA at the end of the 17-18 season. Is Forbort worth getting for at least 1 full season at $2.5m? We know he sucks, so you kind of have to assume that other teams know he sucks. Even retaining 50%, he's still more expensive than Oleksiak was when Pittsburgh got him. He also takes up more on the cap than Oleksiak currently does. If Oleksiak can be dealt, I guess anyone can be, but maybe nobody wants Forbort? Or, BLuc are idiots, and they like Forbort being on the team. It's certainly possible.

It's also possible that this roster is full of players that have little to no value. Anyone that could potentially be dealt, either has contract protections, or are the younger assets we'd all rather see them keep. Be happy that they made the Muzzin move. That one was smart. They timed that one right. Yes, had they been better, Muzzin likely wouldn't have been traded because of incompetent thoughts of being semi-competitive, but they weren't, and he was, so the idiots saw the situation they were in, and made the correct move at the time. Without even worrying about the lack of remaining NHL depth on D.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Interesting bit of info.

 

[tomd]

Interesting bit of info.

No idea if it will happen but it would certainly be the bold aggressive move that would define the direction of the franchise going forward. Blake is on record that they need to solidify the 2C position and getting Duchene would certainly do that. A nice present for the new coach as well...

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

No idea if it will happen but it would certainly be the bold aggressive move that would define the direction of the franchise going forward. Blake is on record that they need to solidify the 2C position and getting Duchene would certainly do that. A nice present for the new coach as well...

The Kings do have the cap space, but I’m not sure if they should make an aggressive offer for Duchene. At most, $7M is what he should get, but some team desperate for a top line center will give him $9M. Teams like Montreal and Arizona desperately need a center like Duchene. Nashville will also be aggressive in their pursuit for a forward of his ilk.

 

[tomd]

The Kings do have the cap space, but I’m not sure if they should make an aggressive offer for Duchene. At most, $7M is what he should get, but some team desperate for a top line center will give him $9M. Teams like Montreal and Arizona desperately need a center like Duchene. Nashville will also be aggressive in their pursuit for a forward of his ilk.

Yeah, I definitely don't think Duchene is a guy you break the bank for. Duchene may not be enamoured of the spotlight he'd have on him in Montreal (perhaps too close to Ottawa) nor might he think Arizona is a particularly attractive place to spend the next 6 years. Nashville seems like a good fit for both but they'll have cap issues soon with their defensemen so they may not be in a position to offer a ridiculous amount of money either. It's going to be interesting. I do think Duchene fills a bigger need than even a Panarin so I'm sure the interest is there.

Ultimately, it will depend on the question we've been debating since the new year...does Blake forsake the remaining years of Doughty, Kopitar, Quick, and Brown via a full tank/rebuild or does he go the retool route (get younger, keep picks, but also make the team competitive). I think the loss of Hughes/Kakko may have swung their internal discussions towards going with the latter route...but we'll know soon enough.