Value of: PK Subban at the deadline with double retention.

[bigd]

Realistically he would bring back a low package of picks 3rd 4th maybe with retention. Could see some minor interest from teams looking for some D depth

They will be lucky to get one pick with conditions, a package would be over payment.

 

[bigd]

Subban has more value to NJ than a 3rd round pick. He doesn’t get traded unless a 2nd is received in return. I rather keep Subban for his experience (NJ is an extremely young team) and steady play on D than get a 3rd round pick.

He has no value to NJ if they are out of playoff contention.
A third round pick would be extremely generous, IMO.

 

[Jerkbait]

They will be lucky to get one pick with conditions, a package would be over payment.

Nah, small package would make it sound better . I do agree about the value but when I say a package its a small package......probably a name both you and I have never heard of and a small value pick in the 4th round range .

 

[Overrateprospects]

lol no its not they are in need of a player with grit and they have hamilton and severson on rd so pk is expendable. not only that majority of nj fans cant wait to get rid of pk

Wouldn’t it make sense to hold PK for rest of season instead of taking on a cap dump for additional two years? Getting back a 3rd doesn’t sound appealing

 

[Man Bear Pig]

Why would anyone give up much of anything for Subban at this point?

 

[Big Empty]

You know double 50% retention isn't a thing, right?

50% is the max retention on a contract. Two teams can do 25, or 40/10, but the total can not exceed 50%.

False. No part of your statement is true.

Exhibit A: Nick Foligno trade to Toronto at the 2021 TDL

Columbus traded Nick Foligno to Toronto in a 3 team trade. Columbus sent Foligno to San Jose at 50% retained (2.75M) who then sent Foligno to Toronto at an additional 50% retained (1.35M).

Nick Foligno Trade History - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Exhibit B: David Savard trade to Tampa at the 2021 TDL

Columbus traded David Savard to Tampa in a 3 team trade. Columbus sent Savard at 50% retained (2.125M) to Detroit who sent Savard to Tampa at an additional 50% retained (1.0625M).

David Savard Trade History - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Case closed. Educate yourself before you speak with certainty.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Just need to fill one hole at a time. That’s how you build a team, right?

Yeah but he will be completely done by the time Buffalo is competitive

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Why would anyone give up much of anything for Subban at this point?

He won't get much but he will get something

 

[My3Sons]

He has no value to NJ if they are out of playoff contention.
A third round pick would be extremely generous, IMO.

if NJ decides they want to actually win down the stretch to give their young players some confidence heading into the off season he has value. He’s an optimistic veteran who also plays right defense where the team has nothing of note behind him. If nobody wants him NJ will be happy to keep him. Giving themselves a chance at a semi-decent finish will be more important than a fourth round pick and a C- prospect.

 

[Team Cozens]

Yeah but he will be completely done by the time Buffalo is competitive

Doesn’t matter, he can be a veteran presence while the prospects marinate. Power and Dahlin are both LHD who need mentorship. Maybe it’s not Subban, I like Savard or Manson as well, but my point is you can add players now who won’t end up being around when you are contending.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Injuries. His skating is a big weakness for him nowadays.

It doesn't seem like he has ever talked about it much, but the consensus timeline that we were able to piece together in Nashville was something like:

1. He was "slightly damaged goods" at the time the Preds picked him up from Montreal... Habs fans talked about some collision with Emelin iirc and maybe that was the start of a neck/back issue with him.

2. Nevertheless he was still a bona fide dynamic #1 defenseman in his first two years in Nashville: a tad slow out of the gate in Year #1 as he adjusted to his new digs, but overall our best defenseman those years, and best in the playoffs (and that's saying quite a bit with our blueline). Still, you could see he wasn't particularly fast in a straight line - good edgework, but if he was ever "fast" before in Montreal, then he lost that before coming to Nashville - he didn't have closing speed at all coming back on plays. But he still had such great vision and creativity and battled hard and played so well defensively that we didn't need him to be "fast".

3. In Year 3 in Nashville something had happened. He went from "not fast" to... "slow/immobile". Maybe he hurt something lower in his back, something went off a cliff for him physically anyway. He was still a pretty good 2nd pairing-calibre guy, he still battled, but his lack of mobility became a liability. I don't think we had any one specific on-ice event that we were able to point to as causing the issue. Sometimes we wondered if his off-season training for bulk strength might have been a contributing factor.

4. Subban did manage to battle his way through to a good finish/playoff that 3rd season so some of us were optimistic that maybe he would recover from the injury, whatever it was, and rebound the next year; but clearly Poile knew something we didn't. He got out of the contract while he could still get something, fortunately, because clearly whatever the issue was turned out to be chronic/permanent and it doesn't look like Subban ever recovered. Or at least, it would seem from the rare glimpses I've seen of Subban in New Jersey since the trade that he is basically frozen at that immobile level. Still tries to battle, but has given up even trying to do much on offense anymore, he seems to have settled into accepting a depth role where he tries to manage his physical limitations and just hold down a #5-ish type of job as he plays out his contract.

It's too bad, because he sure was fun to watch in those first two seasons as a Predator.

 

[Smitty426]

I'm not sure about that. The Devils have already paid $6M of his salary, so the third team doesn't have to retain much real money.

Hes owed about $2.5M in real money

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Yeah Devils fans are counting on his name, and shot I suppose getting a good return still but I'm skeptical. He'd be a bottom pair guy who maybe plays on PP2 I think for any acquiring team, and if two thirds is a comfortable price to acquire what he brings I think he's gonna be yours.

I could see it I think it's either him or Giordano and if he doesn't end up here at the deadline I'd bet on it in free agency.

One guy I fully expect you can make Leaf Jersey for is Colin Miller.

Colin Miller played for the Soo, I think he was even captain.

Kyle Dubas is obsessed with the Soo

 

[SingnBluesOnBroadway]

Double secret retention?

 

[Habs Halifax]

Hes owed about $2.5M in real money

If he is traded at the deadline, it's less than that. His $6M signing bonus was paid last summer and he had $2M for the season as a salary. Prorate that at the deadline and even without retention, it's like $500k.

Money is not a problem. His 50% retention of $4.5M cap hit is a problem for most if not all cup contenders. I'm not sure that any team can take him on for any less than 50%. The other 50% can be spread out by the Devils and another team but the team he lands at takes the full 50%? That's how I believe it works but not 100% sure

 

[Habs Halifax]

Double secret retention?

Some Leafs fans really do think Dubas is a genius. So you never know . Dubas is like Clark Kent with his glasses on in front of the media but when he is behind the scenes, he is Superman!

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Some Leafs fans really do think Dubas is a genius. So you never know . Dubas is like Clark Kent with his glasses on in front of the media but when he is behind the scenes, he is Superman!

FAR from a Dubas fan but given the current state of your team I don't think Habs fans have room to take shots at anyone's GM

 

[bigd]

if NJ decides they want to actually win down the stretch to give their young players some confidence heading into the off season he has value. He’s an optimistic veteran who also plays right defense where the team has nothing of note behind him. If nobody wants him NJ will be happy to keep him. Giving themselves a chance at a semi-decent finish will be more important than a fourth round pick and a C- prospect.

He's a Shero sighning, Fitz will cut him loose if he can get something in return.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I was expecting Subban to have a good contract year but it appears he is not. I do believe he will be traded at 50% retention but the return will be low still. Where does he sign and for how much this offseason? Very curious and a part of me thinks he will get low ball offers and end up signing a 1 year prove it deal with the Leafs around $1M

I think that Subban can provide more value in a secondary role on a contender with less holes. He can slide in and do this thing with less focus on his game and that's where I see him gaining some confidence and momentum. However, it appears at this stage that he is a risky player in terms of the brain cramps he has on the ice and is a fringe top 4D at this point in time moving forward.

 

[TGWL]

Subban has more value to NJ than a 3rd round pick. He doesn’t get traded unless a 2nd is received in return. I rather keep Subban for his experience (NJ is an extremely young team) and steady play on D than get a 3rd round pick.

They have 2 defensemen combined to have nearly 20 NHL seasons. They absolutely do not need Subban for value to the team's youth. If NJD can get a 3rd, they should take it. I completely get the value of a 3rd being a long shot but unless you see a playoff run happening, there is no reason to keep Subban. They brought in Graves for a 2nd round pick + player. They can bring in more value with that 3rd than keeping Subban.

 

[Habs Halifax]

They have 2 defensemen combined to have nearly 20 NHL seasons. They absolutely do not need Subban for value to the team's youth. If NJD can get a 3rd, they should take it. I completely get the value of a 3rd being a long shot but unless you see a playoff run happening, there is no reason to keep Subban. They brought in Graves for a 2nd round pick + player. They can bring in more value with that 3rd than keeping Subban.

The best spot for Subban is with a contender that has an anchor contract that is about to expire as well. Devils retain 50% and take a contact back for the rest of the year and then take whatever futures they can get.

Supply and demand sets the value and I suspect the phone will not be rigging off the wall for Subban at $4.5M (prorated at the deadline). Not many teams have that cap room and Subban is not trending well.

 

[My3Sons]

He's a Shero sighning, Fitz will cut him loose if he can get something in return.

Maybe, but last deadline Fitz held onto Murray rather than try to grab another fourth or fifth round pick since the team needed someone to supply some veteran minutes. For a second round pick I expect Fitz would move him. Not so sure about a lower round pick if the team and Subban are doing ok as the deadline approaches. I don't think Fitz views this season as a tank season even if he doesn't expect a playoff berth. We will see.

 

[NjDevsRR]

Subban has been nothing but solid in a third pairing role this season. He has 13 pts in 30 gms, an even rating on a team that is -20.

If a contender needs a better third pairing then he will definitely help.

 

[Smitty426]

If he is traded at the deadline, it's less than that. His $6M signing bonus was paid last summer and he had $2M for the season as a salary. Prorate that at the deadline and even without retention, it's like $500k.

Money is not a problem. His 50% retention of $4.5M cap hit is a problem for most if not all cup contenders. I'm not sure that any team can take him on for any less than 50%. The other 50% can be spread out by the Devils and another team but the team he lands at takes the full 50%? That's how I believe it works but not 100% sure

yes I believe this is all correct, didnt want to get down to the per game rate but you are correct. That is why I suggested a third team, to eat an addl 25% of cap

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

He's a Shero sighning, Fitz will cut him loose if he can get something in return.

Teams are always looking for defensive depth somebody will take him