Rumor: Pittsburgh will "certainly try" to move Jarry.

[Ragamuffin Gunner]

The problem is he paid higher than a mid goalie and his consistency issues make him a fringe starter despite his favorable GSAx and slightly above 900 save percentage.

He's actually paid at his level. He's the 13th highest paid goalie and will soon be around 20th in the next year or two with some of the names coming up as FAs. That's exactly where he ranks.

 

[Ragamuffin Gunner]

TJ's most damning stat last year was...the Pens being 31st on the PP.

Had they functioned like a real team on the PP they'd have finished 3rd in the the Metro, which would have been perfectly reasonable for a mid-tier starting goalie.

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

Honestly think Jarry would be better target for team like Sens than Ullmark

Cheaper to acquire and Jarry is more likely to be convinced to waive his NTC (12 team list)

Forsberg + Joseph for Jarry to me makes sense for both teams

- Pens get a capable vet to pair in 1B role and a good 3rd liner
- Sens get stability at G position going forward with an established starter

In short term cap is somewhat offset by Forsberg (1 yr) and Joseph (2 yrs) while years 3 and 4 of deal the Sens cap situation opens up along with rising cap that cost is not issue

 

[Empoleon8771]

Honestly think Jarry would be better target for team like Sens than Ullmark

Cheaper to acquire and Jarry is more likely to be convinced to waive his NTC (12 team list)

Forsberg + Joseph for Jarry to me makes sense

In short term cap is somewhat offset by Forsberg (1 yr) and Joseph (2 yrs) while years 3 and 4 of deal the Sens cap situation opens up along with rising cap that cost is not issue

This is the exact deal I think makes sense. Joseph is a really nice addition for the Penguins bottom-6 plus they have his brother on defense. It's basically an even salary swap too, with the Penguins taking on like $300k in the deal.

The only issue with this deal is that it has Ottawa paying $9.4 million for their goalie duo of Jarry-Korpisalo. But that issue would be there regardless of whether Ottawa trades for Ullmark or Jarry, so it's either ride that out or buyout Korpisalo.

 

[SEALBound]

Forsberg+Joseph for Jarry is a pretty decent swap for both sides. As Emp pointed out, having Jarry+Korps is a rough set up but the cap swap is fairly even. I would venture the guess that at some point this season, a team will need a goalie so there may be opportunities to move Korpisalo. Or you keep him and run a tandem which isn't the worst idea provided you can back fill the roster with a young player that offsets the costs.

Forsberg runs a tandem with Neds with Blomqvist getting opportunities as needed is a decent path for the Pens this season. Joseph offers a style that they are missing sans Bunting so not the worst addition to the lineup.

It's not a homerun trade but one I would do, if for no other reason than to facilitate change on the team.

 

[Gurglesons]

Why is Ottawa trading Forsberg for Jarry though?

 

[SEALBound]

Why is Ottawa trading Forsberg for Jarry though?

He's an expensive back up as is. You include him for cap reasons. If you don't include a goalie, you're running 3 goalies at $12mil+. I think the cost of dumping Korpisalo to the Penguins might be a little expensive, if the Penguins would accept that at all.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Why is Ottawa trading Forsberg for Jarry though?

Forsberg: .890 save%, -7.3 GSAx last year
Jarry: .903 save%, +2.5 GSAx last year

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Try reading it again.

Spoiler alert: you are wrong again.

He is a cap dump and not an average starter for 2 seasons now. There isn’t a GM out there going “dang other teams are paying within 20% of jarry for equally bad or worse goaltending, maybe I should also pay a lot for less than average goaltending.”

Markstrom just got dealt for a 1st plus.

 

[Hobnobs]

Does Gibson suck or is he on the Ducks? I think he's on the Ducks



Nobody wants K2 at that price

Dostal is also on the ducks and outperformed Gibson

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Markstrom just got dealt for a 1st plus.

that is relatable here? Markstrom was quite a bit better than Jarry.

 

[Gurglesons]

Forsberg: .890 save%, -7.3 GSAx last year
Jarry: .903 save%, +2.5 GSAx last year

And one is making 2.75 for one year and one is making 5+ for 4?

He's an expensive back up as is. You include him for cap reasons. If you don't include a goalie, you're running 3 goalies at $12mil+. I think the cost of dumping Korpisalo to the Penguins might be a little expensive, if the Penguins would accept that at all.

I don't see any reason why Ottawa is targetting Jarry tbh. It seems like Penguins fans just hoping someone will take our bad contract.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

that is relatable here? Markstrom was quite a bit better than Jarry.

Over the last 2 years? By what metric?

Buddy had a .892 SV% in '22-'23. Jarry hasn't been below .903 in any year where he played more than 2 games.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Over the last 2 years? By what metric?

all but save percentage

Markstrom's better over the last 2 years is a lot better than what Jarry has put out behind a worse team. And it required a 30% retention to get the 1st anyways.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

all but save percentage

Markstrom's better over the last 2 years is a lot better than what Jarry has put out behind a worse team. And it required a 30% retention to get the 1st anyways.

Their GAA is very close over those 2 years. SV% is not. You haven't demonstrated how Markstrom is any better over that tineframe.

Do you think the Pens are some defensive juggernaut?

 

[Empoleon8771]

And one is making 2.75 for one year and one is making 5+ for 4?

Are the Senators trying to win or not? If they are, they need to improve their goaltending. The idea that they'd run it back with shit tier goaltending because "we don't want Jarry's long-term deal" is silly. There are simply no better alternatives this year because of how awful the market is.

This is especially true with Ottawa, who seems desperate to take a step forward. Running it back next year with the same terrible goalies or going dumpster diving for goalies because "we're scared of how Jarry's deal will look in 3 years" is a terrific way to lose your job.

The Senators have an extremely good up and coming core, but they were done in by heinous goaltending last year. They had a team save% of .884, which was the worst in hockey last year. The idea that they wouldn't trade for a goalie upgrade because "Jarry's deal is bad", when there are realistically no better alternatives out there (especially if Ullmark goes elsewhere), is ridiculous.

 

[Gurglesons]

Are the Senators trying to win or not? If they are, they need to improve their goaltending. The idea that they'd run it back with shit tier goaltending because "we don't want Jarry's long-term deal" is silly. There are simply no better alternatives this year because of how awful the market is.

This is especially true with Ottawa, who seems desperate to take a step forward. Running it back next year with the same terrible goalies or going dumpster diving for goalies because "we're scared of how Jarry's deal will look in 3 years" is a terrific way to lose your job.

Ottawa is targeting Ullmark.

 

[GeeoffBrown]

I'd lean towards Leafs because I think Calgary wants to give Dustin Wolf a shot and Jarry would block him.

Pitt would have to take Dan Vladar back but it's doable. Assets would have to be on Pitt side though.

 

[Maninthebox87]

Jarry is solid but his contract was a little too long for my liking if it was like a 3 year deal I would have been totally fine with him. I just think “it’s not working “ anymore in Pittsburgh and it’s time to make a switch.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Ottawa is targeting Ullmark.

And what if they don't get Ullmark? What's left if Ullmark goes to Detroit instead?

Pitt would have to take Dan Vladar back but it's doable. Assets would have to be on Pitt side though.

So the Penguins would have to add to get a worse goalie?

Your team literally just got a 1st rounder for Markstrom, yet somehow Jarry has negative value now? Markstrom is better than Jarry, but not by a ton.

 

[Gurglesons]

And what if they don't get Ullmark? What's left if Ullmark goes to Detroit instead?

I think a lot of goaltenders I'd take over Jarry tbh.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Their GAA is very close over those 2 years. SV% is not. You haven't demonstrated how Markstrom is any better over that tineframe.

Do you think the Pens are some defensive juggernaut?

Markstrom is better based on GSAx but it's not by a ton. In the 4 years Markstrom was on Calgary:

-2023-2024: +2.6 GSAx for Jarry, +13.7 GSAx for Markstrom
-2022-2023: -2.8 GSAx for Jarry, -3.1 GSAx for Marksrom
-2021-2022: +12.8 GSAx for Jarry, +10.8 GSAx for Markstrom
-2020-2021: -11.8 GSAx for Jarry, -9.3 GSAx for Markstrom

Total: +0.8 GSAx for Jarry, +12.1 GSAx for Markstrom

2020-2023 were basically equal for the two, while Markstrom was notably better than Jarry in 2023-2024. Still though, the idea that Markstrom brings back a 1st while Jarry is a negative value cap dump is just idiocy.

The reality is that Markstrom cashed out on a good year, hence why he brought back a 1st, but Jarry is coming off a mid year and will likely get a very mid-like return. Something like a "2nd but take back Husso" type of return.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Their GAA is very close over those 2 years. SV% is not. You haven't demonstrated how Markstrom is any better over that tineframe.

Do you think the Pens are some defensive juggernaut?

you havent demonstrated how he isnt.

the GAA difference is 0.05. The difference is .008, holy crap what a not very close number.
GSAx number is 6.26 for markstrom and -0.15 for Jarry.

Pens arent a defensive juggernaut but they have been at least a playoff team in the last 2 seasons.

Markstrom's faces worse shots than Jarry, facing more HD chances per 60 and HD chances overall (some of that weight is because Markstrom has more starts. He also has higher HDSV% by a good margin. An actual good margin (0.43) not .008.

and it still took retention to get a 1st in the deal.

 

[Ragamuffin Gunner]

that is relatable here? Markstrom was quite a bit better than Jarry.

How do define "quite a bit better" because they have pretty similar stats? THe two big ones that TJ is lower than Marks are age and cap hit.

 

[Raistlin]

when I see Jarry's name come up, I think typical decent starter. I dont get the hate from the Pen's board. He does have consistent injury issues though.