OT: Philadelphia Eagles (NFL): When You're Up, It's Never As Good As It Seems, And When You're Down, You Never Think You'll Be Up Again

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DancingPanther

Foundational Titan
Jun 19, 2018
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If Robbie Gould scores less than 25 points I'm good in one league.

In the other, I need CMC to outscore Rondale Moore by 5.

Hold onto your butts
 

deadhead

Registered User
Feb 26, 2014
51,141
22,268
Hurts is fine, it's the team around him that has self-destructed the last two weeks, penalties and fumbles, and some less than stellar run blocking.

One problem with starting 8-0 is it results in inflated expectations, going into this season, Howie was clear that he wasn't fooled by 9-7 and that the rebuild would continue, and he drafted BPA. Jurgens is certainly not a win now move. Then they got off to a hot start, but it doesn't change the underlying reality, this team was 4-12 two years ago. So it's not a great team, just a good team on a hot streak.

In a 17 game season, most good teams will have a "funky" period where they lose a couple games they should have won. The loss of Davis and Goedert exposed some weaknesses, Howie responded to Davis with Suh and Joseph for essentially nothing (a couple million more than the cost of promoting from the PS or signing a waiver wire guy). At TE, they're going to live with Stoll, Calcaterra and Jackson, and see if these guys are "keepers." When they get Davis and Goedert back, they'll be primed for a stretch run.

Hurts is still a work in progress as a passer, his mechanics are improved, he's throwing with more zip and accuracy, he's getting more comfortable in the pocket, but after 10 games, he still hasn't played 2 full seasons as a starting QB (29 starts). He's still only 24 years old. Given his off the chart work ethic, there's probably substantial upside left. His best attribute is probably his mental toughness, he's not fazed by pressure, either in games or playing in Philly.
 
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JojoTheWhale

"You should keep it." -- Striiker
May 22, 2008
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Most QBs don't have substantial new upside left at 24.

Hurts has played quite well this year. The question with any rookie scale QB is not whether it's ok to have him as a starting QB, it's whether or not he's a guy you pay 40+. Reasonable people will disagree on evaluations when it comes to every single player, but that is the only relevant standard of measure.

I'm even being conservative by saying 40. The real number is likely 45+.
 

Chinatown88

1 year 1 month 1 day and counting
Jan 17, 2012
25,017
48,016
The Universe
Most QBs don't have substantial upside left at 24.

Hurts has played quite well this year. The question with any rookie scale QB is not whether it's ok to have him as a starting QB, it's whether or not he's a guy you pay 40+. Reasonable people will disagree on evaluations when it comes to every single player, but that is the only relevant standard of measure.

I'm even being conservative by saying 40. The real number is likely 45+.
Why do you have to give me nightmares?
 
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JojoTheWhale

"You should keep it." -- Striiker
May 22, 2008
36,012
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Why do you have to give me nightmares?

When Hurts got super hot to start the year, Kempski said he thought Kyler Murray was the better contractual comp for a potential extension than Lamar. I would agree. Here's Murray's structure:

image.png
 
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deadhead

Registered User
Feb 26, 2014
51,141
22,268
Most QBs don't have substantial new upside left at 24.

Hurts has played quite well this year. The question with any rookie scale QB is not whether it's ok to have him as a starting QB, it's whether or not he's a guy you pay 40+. Reasonable people will disagree on evaluations when it comes to every single player, but that is the only relevant standard of measure.

I'm even being conservative by saying 40. The real number is likely 45+.
Most QBs, like most players, don't have elite work ethics.

We saw that with McNabb and Wentz, once they were successful, they flat lined, partially due to injury, but also b/c they weren't focused on improving their game and resisted coaching. Same with Murray in Arizona.

This is why intangibles matter, but especially for QBs, physical development is usually complete by 24-25, but mental development depends on the player's commitment to the game. Brady got stronger in the NFL, but just as important, he improved his understanding of the game to the point where he progressed from a "caretaker" QB his first three seasons as a starter, running a ball control short passing scheme, to orchestrating a wide open scheme by 2004.

This is one reason why, in all sports, the "bargains" are the guys wired to compete, because they'll maximize their potential - if you draft/trade based on current talent/production, they're the best bet to exceed expectations. The most dangerous play is betting on elite but immature athletes growing up, that is, maturing to the point where they don't depend on their raw talent and put the work in to reach their potential.
 
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JojoTheWhale

"You should keep it." -- Striiker
May 22, 2008
36,012
111,252
Most QBs, like most players, don't have elite work ethics.

We saw that with McNabb and Wentz, once they were successful, they flat lined, partially due to injury, but also b/c they weren't focused on improving their game and resisted coaching. Same with Murray in Arizona.

This is why intangibles matter, but especially for QBs, physical development is usually complete by 24-25, but mental development depends on the player's commitment to the game. Brady got stronger in the NFL, but just as important, he improved his understanding of the game to the point where he progressed from a "caretaker" QB his first three seasons as a starter, running a ball control short passing scheme, to orchestrating a wide open scheme by 2004.

This is one reason why, in all sports, the "bargains" are the guys wired to compete, because they'll maximize their potential - if you draft/trade based on current talent/production, they're the best bet to exceed expectations. The most dangerous play is betting on elite but immature athletes growing up, that is, maturing to the point where they don't depend on their raw talent and put the work in to reach their potential.

Tom Brady developed in an NFL that bears little resemblance to what QBs are asked to do today. There's a quote out there from Seth Galina of PFF that I love because it sounds completely absurd on face value and the more you dig into it, the more you realize it's true.

Seth Galina said:
75% of high school quarterbacks are better than every NFL quarterback before 1995

That doesn't mean Dan Marino wouldn't have been able to play in 2022. What it does mean is that what the position entails has changed so much that we need to stop making these historical comps. Similar to how quoting a team's record when X RB rushes for 100+ yards is actually describing game script, Brady's evolution is hopelessly entangled with leaguewide evolution.
 

Svechhammer

THIS is hockey?
Jun 8, 2017
25,772
93,789
I mean in reality, if the Eagles didn't have their WRs fumbling the last 2 weeks after catches while trying to extend plays where big gains and first downs had already been attained, we're not having this discussion about Hurts struggling right now.

That said, I was more worried about our run D after the last couple games. We looked like trash against the run against Washington, and I know a lot questioned Suh and Joseph being added.... Well,



That is good to see going forward.
 

Beef Invictus

Revolutionary Positivity
Dec 21, 2009
130,566
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Tom Brady developed in an NFL that bears little resemblance to what QBs are asked to do today. There's a quote out there from Seth Galina of PFF that I love because it sounds completely absurd on face value and the more you dig into it, the more you realize it's true.



That doesn't mean Dan Marino wouldn't have been able to play in 2022. What it does mean is that what the position entails has changed so much that we need to stop making these historical comps. Similar to how quoting a team's record when X RB rushes for 100+ yards is actually describing game script, Brady's evolution is hopelessly entangled with leaguewide evolution.

I don't even bother comparing any QB after 2000 with QBs before. It can't be done. And it's not like hockey where it can be done carefully, I think it's fully impossible.

In the 90s and before you could win Superbowls with an Alex Smith. No problem, build a good team for the era and it's done. That kind of guy is very unlikely to win now.

One thing that is universal though: every QB from OSU is doomed to failure and shouldn't be taken before the 3rd round. I promise.
 
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