OT: Philadelphia Eagles (NFL): When You're Up, It's Never As Good As It Seems, And When You're Down, You Never Think You'll Be Up Again

[Hollywood Cannon]

Doh - sorry. Had a moment of being dumb.

Thank you for that. Had a big argument last night with a friend that I was "being too emotional" when I said the Cowboys were cowards and screwed themselves by not risking it to get the TD with 2:15 left.

Also, random question for the group:

OBJECTIVELY....which NFL divisions have the biggest/most/best rivalries (in total)?

Like if you said "That is a division where it's a bloodbath each year among fans", who are the Top 3 you'd say?

If you wanna show him proof:

 

[BrindamoursNose]

It seems all I am reading is how nervous Eagles fans are about playing the 49ers when, in fact, it should be 49ers fans being terrified about playing the Eagles. The Eagles are the better team. Period.

I'm nervous because Deebo and McCaffrey are unique freaks...*but* I do think we should be favored.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

It seems all I am reading is how nervous Eagles fans are about playing the 49ers when, in fact, it should be 49ers fans being terrified about playing the Eagles. The Eagles are the better team. Period.

It’s a conference championship. Both teams are going to be very good and be “scared” of the other. The idea that either of these teams are “better…period” is a little too simplistic.

 

[Kermit the Prog]

View attachment 639940

Si, senor.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

If you want to get a bet on the Eagles, I would do it quickly. I suspect you'll have to lay 3 soon, although some books will always lag.

 

[TB87]

It seems all I am reading is how nervous Eagles fans are about playing the 49ers when, in fact, it should be 49ers fans being terrified about playing the Eagles. The Eagles are the better team. Period.

Eagles have the better QB. Like most games for this very good team, the only way they lose is if they beat themselves via turnovers. They’re an extremely deep, talented, and well-coached team. Same can be said of the 49ers to a lesser degree (ish). I’d prefer Ryans over Gannon. However, the QB talent advantage for the birds is a significant one. Jalen was fantastic on Saturday night and was fantastic in the vast majority of his games this season. They’re 15-1 with him in the lineup. That’s bananas. He makes they’re offense really, really tough to stop.

 

[FatTugboatFlahr]

What do we think the spread ends up at.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I think this SF defense is different in the way 2021 Georgia was. It's not just that they have talent all over the place. It's not just that they're the best at their level of competition. They hit differently. They tackle differently. They're physical and aggressive from every possible angle.

I get that Purdy probably had his worst two games in a row and you can see the Eagles' typical overarching blueprint worked for Dallas yesterday. But these are the two best top to bottom rosters in football. Nothing is a given here at all.

To steal a Sheil Kapadia bit, imagine how many Giants would start for the Eagles. I believe he said he would take 3. Now do that with the 49ers.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

To steal a Sheil Kapadia bit, imagine how many Giants would start for the Eagles. I believe he said he would take 3. Now do that with the 49ers.

I made myself curious. It's tough because schemes vary so much from team to team, but I did my best.

Clear Eagles (11): Hurts, Dickerson, Kelce, Seumalo, Lane, Graham, Hargrave, Reddick, CJGJ, Bradberry, Slay

Clear 49ers (10): McCaffrey, Williams, Armstead, Bosa, Greenlaw, Warner, Ward, Al-Shaair, Hufanga, Gipson

Defensible either way (3): Brown/Deebo, DeVonta/Aiyuk, Goedert/Kittle

If I was a neutral fan, I'd be giddy over getting to watch this one.

 

[Kermit the Prog]

I think this SF defense is different in the way 2021 Georgia was. It's not just that they have talent all over the place. It's not just that they're the best at their level of competition. They hit differently. They tackle differently. They're physical and aggressive from every possible angle.

I get that Purdy probably had his worst two games in a row and you can see the Eagles' typical overarching blueprint worked for Dallas yesterday. But these are the two best top to bottom rosters in football. Nothing is a given here at all.

To steal a Sheil Kapadia bit, imagine how many Giants would start for the Eagles. I believe he said he would take 3. Now do that with the 49ers.

Glad you brought this up.

My statement up-thread can be viewed as being glib, when, in fact, its intention was to be simply distilled to a bottom line, with all variables being calculated behind the curtain.

Sheil's question is a great one. When I look at the question, however, it is a matter of degree. Take Deebo Samuel, for example. Do you take him over Brown? I can see arguments both ways, but regardless of where one lands with their selection, is the delta between them that distinct? Then take McCaffrey - are we looking at the player or the position itself where the Eagles can roll out three backs who can replicate, or, in some cases, exceed total production at the position when combining yardage. Again, I have no argument with whichever one gets the nod. Is the net result a decisive edge?

I ask these questions not as a challenge, but as questions I have ruminated on myself. For me, the only decisive edge I see for the 49ers is at LB, but it's not as if the Eagles are running slop out there. For the Eagles, the obvious edge, in my opinion, is at QB, and if I was strategically viewing this tilt empirically, without hometown bias, I would choose the Eagles. The 49ers' winning streak means nothing to me, nor does the 15-1 2022 regular season record Hurts brings with him. The 49ers had the top-rated defense. The Eagles were the second. Is the disparity that pronounced? With all apologies to paper tigers, was the combined level of competition equitable in compiling those rankings? Late game yardage-chewing when maintaining a heavy lead late in the game can pollute overall yardage allowances.

I realize you are aware of all of this, and I am not trying to be didactic by pointing it out. The Eagles have arguably the best O-Line and a D-Line that was the primary factor in almost setting an NFL record for sacks. They really have no true weaknesses. The same could be said for the 49ers, but QB edge, and home field advantage, along with incremental advantages (i.e. I like the Eagles' O-Line vs. the 49ers' D-Line better than the 49ers' O-Line vs. the Eagles' D-Line, for example. The same with the WR/Secondary comparison, although I think it's closer there) provided the conclusive flag-planting on my opinion. I could be wrong. Football is a funny game and inexplicable things can happen. The main thrust of that post was it seems all the worrying seems to be occurring on the side of the Eagles fans when 49ers fans have a lot to worry about as well.

tl/dr: A hot dog is a sandwich

 

[Svechhammer]

 

[JojoTheWhale]

They really have no true weaknesses.

The Eagles' biggest weakness to me right now is 2nd level Tackling. I don't know how Gannon is going to choose to play against SF, but I would say that if Shanahan can force their DBs to be the ones making tackles to limit gains, I'm worried about the PHL D vs SF O matchup.

I don't know that I think blindly throwing out a Bear Front is the answer, either. I'm not smart enough to know what the answer is, but I think it's a complicated one that can't be summed up in one tidy bundle. I'm interested to see what Gannon has in store.

And of course on the other side of the ball, SF erases the middle of the field and deep throws to the outside. The Eagles don't care much about the MOF and their big plays often live and die on throws to the sideline. SF makes you make decisions quickly. Hurts' tendency is to leave the pocket quickly. SF plays a lot of Zone (C3) and we have basically no info on them against high-end running QBs. It's a fantastic stylistic match.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Do we like Greg Olsen? Yes or no? First thought.

 

[Kermit the Prog]

Do we like Greg Olsen? Yes or no? First thought.

He's blond. Ergo, his opinions are invalid.

Actually, I think he's pretty decent.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Do we like Greg Olsen? Yes or no? First thought.

The first actively good NFL color guy in years.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Do we like Greg Olsen? Yes or no? First thought.

G-reg with the third leg. Iykyk.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

The first actively good NFL color guy in years.

While on this subject can we talk about how BAD Romo is now? I always thought he was annoying but wooooof.

 

[SnS]

Do we like Greg Olsen? Yes or no? First thought.

We love Olsen.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

While on this subject can we talk about how BAD Romo is now? I always thought he was annoying but wooooof.

I thought he was fine, but not anymore. I don't know if that's me getting tired of the schtick or him getting worse.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

Do we like Greg Olsen? Yes or no? First thought.

Yeah, he's not bad at all. Not sure about his partner, though.

I thought he was fine, but not anymore. I don't know if that's me getting tired of the schtick or him getting worse.

They desperately needed to rein him in just a bit, but they did the exact opposite. Jim Nantz should be influencing Romo to become more like him, but it is going the other way. Yesterday I heard Nantz mumbling gibberish a la Romo for the first time. I'm not joking - that happened. It's bad.

 

[Kermit the Prog]

One thing I have not seen mentioned anywhere (and I just could have missed it) was just how hard Kenneth Gainwell was running on Saturday night. He was sledgehammering his yards and not just dodging contact.

 

[DancingPanther]

One thing I have not seen mentioned anywhere (and I just could have missed it) was just how hard Kenneth Gainwell was running on Saturday night. He was sledgehammering his yards and not just dodging contact.

He was a beast. This year's Corey Clement?

 

[Bigkarl]

The Eagles' biggest weakness to me right now is 2nd level Tackling. I don't know how Gannon is going to choose to play against SF, but I would say that if Shanahan can force their DBs to be the ones making tackles to limit gains, I'm worried about the PHL D vs SF O matchup.

I don't know that I think blindly throwing out a Bear Front is the answer, either. I'm not smart enough to know what the answer is, but I think it's a complicated one that can't be summed up in one tidy bundle. I'm interested to see what Gannon has in store.

And of course on the other side of the ball, SF erases the middle of the field and deep throws to the outside. The Eagles don't care much about the MOF and their big plays often live and die on throws to the sideline. SF makes you make decisions quickly. Hurts' tendency is to leave the pocket quickly. SF plays a lot of Zone (C3) and we have basically no info on them against high-end running QBs. It's a fantastic stylistic match.

Am I completely off base to think the Eagles have the offense to exploit a cover 3? WR’s that can run quick outs, a high level TE that can find the deep seams, a QB that doesn’t turn the ball over often and should be able to dink and dunk them down the field and sustain long drives, and an Oline/run game that should be able to smash them in the face on 2nd/3rd and short.

Who have the Eagles played that are most like the Niners schematically?

 

[Flybynite]

While on this subject can we talk about how BAD Romo is now? I always thought he was annoying but wooooof.

I actually thought he was good when he first went into announcing. I read something earlier this year, not sure how true it is that Romo when he retired and went into announcing kinda approached it similar to still being in the league. He would watch tape on the teams and it would give him insights that he often shared during the game about play calls he expected or tendencies, etc...

Supposedly he's stopped doing any of that and just gets a basic run-down/information from staff before a game.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Am I completely off base to think the Eagles have the offense to exploit a cover 3? WR’s that can run quick outs, a high level TE that can find the deep seams, a QB that doesn’t turn the ball over often and should be able to dink and dunk them down the field and sustain long drives, and an Oline/run game that should be able to smash them in the face on 2nd/3rd and short.

Who have the Eagles played that are most like the Niners schematically?

No, you're not off base at all. Against a typical Cover 3, you'd generally try to attack the Seams and the Flats as you said. This is where Fred Warner changes everything.

SF doesn't take away the middle of the field by clogging it up with a ton of 2 High looks. C3 works for them because they have an alien playing MLB. It would not be hyperbole to say Warner enables Ryans the way Derrick Brooks enabled Tampa 2 to be a scheme base. Warner's unique ability to get depth so quickly means the other players don't have to worry about the usual gaping hole over the top of the LB this usually creates. Their rules to me look like they typically assume Warner gets there.

Everyone runs Dagger off of PA, but the Eagles love it. That's a great C3 beater too. For those that don't know, Dagger basically means your Slot runs a Post/Go to clear the way for your outside WR to run an in-breaker behind him in the 15-20 yard range. Time and time again, Warner manages to both hesitate long enough to make sure it's not a run and then get the necessary depth to get to that in-breaking WR. There's no more DB conflict because Warner replaces one.

As far as schematic similarities, I don't think anyone is a good comp. Even the Jets use a lot more Nickel than the 49ers do now. Of course no one plays C3 as often as the old Seahawks teams did. You can't just play one coverage that much anymore and expect it to hold up. They play a decent amount of C2 for example. They're not particularly good at it, actually. If the Eagles can force them into more 2 High looks, that's a GREAT sign to me. When I think of what SF does best, it's play with 3 LBs on the field.