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Other Sports: Philadelphia Eagles (NFL): Vegas, Baby! (2023 Regular Season)

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Great, more cover 4 in match. At least the front four won't overrun the gap discipline, I guess. Not impressed with Fangio.
 
@BrindamoursNose Ok, let's talk Fangio. The best way I've seen it explained is to say he's the McVay defensive equivalent in that the bedrock of the scheme is the illusion of complexity.

The biggest change is going to be how often disguises are used. On pure disguise rates, Fangio is almost always at the top of the league or very close to it. PFF has the Dolphins at 37.6% disguised coverages. League average was in the mid 20s. They don't blitz all that often. They play a relatively even mix of MoF Open (Two High) and Closed (Single High) coverages, but this manifests in materially different ways than what you may be used to from previous Eagles teams. Fangio loves to start in MoF Open (Two High) and roate to Closed (Single High). He almost never rotates Closed --> Open.

It's tough because of the DC change, but here's a rough idea of the coverage tendency differencs:

Cover 0%Cover 1%Cover 3%Cover 2%Quarters%Cover 6%
Eagles11.117.528.48.817.38.7
Dolphins4.59.334.816.511.19.9

The biggest statistical difference I can show you is in Simulated Pressures. The Dolphins lead the league by a mile with Sims on 36.9% of Snaps this year. The Eagles were near the bottom of the league at 8%.

It doesn't matter what scheme you run. If you can't confuse the Quarterback or make him uncomfortable, you're boned. It's the biggest reason why I am no longer interested in hiring DCs without meaningful experience. You can be Belichick and install a different defense at the drop of a hat. But you can't do that everywhere because the player pool doesn't exist. In most cases, what you need is to know how to respond to as many situations as possible correctly within the scheme that you run. The only way to learn that is to do it.

As far as personnel, someone like Nolan Smith's development now matters quite a bit more. You're going to see a lot of Nickel. They'll be lined up in a formation that looks like a 4-2-5 and it will also play that way, but it has the personnel of a 2-4-5. Smith has the athletic ability to do this while also having the hands to make plays through one blocker. Your Linebackers are going to be tasked with playing Man on RBs like McCaffrey out of bases like Cover 9 (Cover 3 with a weak rotation). If they can't, the scheme doesn't work. Zach Cunningham isn't going to cut it. But the biggest key to me is now Safety. This is the defense that made Justin Simmons and Eddie Jackson into stars. I think Blankenship is a good player, but I'm not as high on him as some other people. I want to know that there's a plan around this spot, particularly whoever is going to play on the weak side. That position has the most freelance ability in the defense and therefore the most opportunity to make plays.
 
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Hollywood Cannon said:
@SnS

Click to expand...


I'm happy for @SnS. Things may be irrevocably poisoned because of Tepper, but they hired a guy who can coach his ass off with QBs. They at least have a shot. This is probably the candidate with the biggest history of positive QB development. It's not just Baker, he helped resurrect Geno too.

That doesn't mean I prefer him to Ben Johnson, but I don't think someone like Slowik is a better candidate. They're pretty similar to me. I'd want to interview both if I had an opening. What I would want to know is whether or not Tampa was so safe because that's what Canales wants to do or other factors -- what Baker can/can't do, operating under directives from a defensive HC, etc.
 
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JojoTheWhale said:
@BrindamoursNose Ok, let's talk Fangio. The best way I've seen it explained is to say he's the McVay defensive equivalent in that the bedrock of the scheme is the illusion of complexity.

The biggest change is going to be how often disguises are used. On pure disguise rates, Fangio is almost always at the top of the league or very close to it. PFF has the Dolphins at 37.6% disguised coverages. League average was in the mid 20s. They don't blitz all that often. They play a relatively even mix of MoF Open (Two High) and Closed (Single High) coverages, but this manifests in materially different ways than what you may be used to from previous Eagles teams. Fangio loves to start in MoF Open (Two High) and roate to Closed (Single High). He almost never rotates Closed --> Open.

It's tough because of the DC change, but here's a rough idea of the coverage tendency differencs:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Cover 0%[/TD]
[TD]Cover 1%[/TD]
[TD]Cover 3%[/TD]
[TD]Cover 2%[/TD]
[TD]Quarters%[/TD]
[TD]Cover 6%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Eagles[/TD]
[TD]11.1[/TD]
[TD]17.5[/TD]
[TD]28.4[/TD]
[TD]8.8[/TD]
[TD]17.3[/TD]
[TD]8.7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dolphins[/TD]
[TD]4.5[/TD]
[TD]9.3[/TD]
[TD]34.8[/TD]
[TD]16.5[/TD]
[TD]11.1[/TD]
[TD]9.9[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

The biggest statistical difference I can show you is in Simulated Pressures. The Dolphins lead the league by a mile with Sims on 36.9% of Snaps this year. The Eagles were near the bottom of the league at 8%.

It doesn't matter what scheme you run. If you can't confuse the Quarterback or make him uncomfortable, you're boned. It's the biggest reason why I am no longer interested in hiring DCs without meaningful experience. You can be Belichick and install a different defense at the drop of a hat. But you can't do that everywhere because the player pool doesn't exist. In most cases, what you need is to know how to respond to as many situations as possible correctly within the scheme that you run. The only way to learn that is to do it.

As far as personnel, someone like Nolan Smith's development now matters quite a bit more. You're going to see a lot of Nickel. They'll be lined up in a formation that looks like a 4-2-5 and it will also play that way, but it has the personnel of a 2-4-5. Smith has the athletic ability to do this while also having the hands to make plays through one blocker. Your Linebackers are going to be tasked with playing Man on RBs like McCaffrey out of bases like Cover 9 (Cover 3 with a weak rotation). If they can't, the scheme doesn't work. Zach Cunningham isn't going to cut it. But the biggest key to me is now Safety. This is the defense that made Justin Simmons and Eddie Jackson into stars. I think Blankenship is a good player, but I'm not as high on him as some other people. I want to know that there's a plan around this spot, particularly whoever is going to play on the weak side. That position has the most freelance ability in the defense and therefore the most opportunity to make plays.
Click to expand...

Welp I’m excited because I know this is also going to make it imperative there’s synergy with Howie and Vic with personnel this offseason. Luckily it’s in positions we need to upgrade anyway.
 
BrindamoursNose said:
Welp I’m excited because I know this is also going to make it imperative there’s synergy with Howie and Vic with personnel this offseason. Luckily it’s in positions we need to upgrade anyway.
Click to expand...
That last is a very good point. I'd far rather have a DC whose scheme needs different personnel at positions where we're weak than one whose scheme needs different personnel at positions where we're strong.
 
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