Confirmed with Link: [PHI/WPG] Kevin Hayes UFA rights for a 2019 5th

[Knarf9o5o1o4o9]

I wonder if going after Zuccarello might be doubly worth it not just because hes good winger depth, but because it would prevent the Rangers from getting that extra 2020 1st round pick if he signs with Dallas

 

[Appleyard]

It's nice to have you here and your calming ways.

The way I see it, is we built up the prospect pool so there will now always be more guys coming. Signing JVR and now Hayes bridges the gap from all kids, to our top 3 forwards(G, Jake and Couts). If we add the right Dman for the right price and a reliable goalie to pair with Hart, we can actually be contenders this coming year....not just playoff tweeners.

Plus when Giroux does hit ~34 if they re-sign him in the 2022-23 season they have:

Couturier (29)
Laughton (28)
Lindblom (26)
Konecny (25)
Patrick (24)
Ratcliffe (23)
Frost (23)
Farabee (22)

Gostisbehere (29)
Sanheim (26)
Myers (25)
Provorov (25)

Sandstrom (25)
Hart (24)
Ustimenko (23)
Ersson (22)

Who are either already established NHLers or project-able prospects with a good chance of being top 9/top 4 NHLers. And only 3 of them will have hit UFA by then. So if they dont screw themselves over with RFA deals that are silly - especially with the mass of depth in regards to prospects they have who have a shot to be good bottom sixers - the cap should not be something that is overly pressing, and assuming that a couple of fwds make the jump to legit 1st line and the D keep developing as they have so far the team should be at least decent.

 

[kudymen]

Why would they need to?

it was a move suggested (hinted at) on page 22 (by a single poster, nothing significant - it just looked so weird, I wanted to respond)

 

[Jettany]

Think Appleyard is a bit optimistic.

Giroux is 1LW right now, but I won't give him more than a year or two left at that level, he's 32 this year.
Voracek is a 2RW, first line scorer, but bad defense lowers his value. He turns 30, not sure he can adjust as he loses speed.
JVR on the other hand, with the right center should play better this season, he was more reliable in Toronto with Bozak.

Hayes is a pretty consistent 5x5 scorer: ES 39, 30, 35, 34, 41, that's borderline 2nd line production.
Compare to Voracek the last five years: ES 48, 32, 38, 50, 48 - average 43 v 36 for Hayes.
Figure maybe a couple years flirting with 40+ ES points, then 30-35 the rest of his contract, solid 3rd line production.
So while he's going to get overpaid, it's not going to be a gross overpay, back years he should still be a $4-5M value.
The real key is whether his defensive improvement is sustainable, as a plus defender he's worth a bit more.

Patrick and Frost, if they play up to their talent, won't be blocked by anyone, since in that case they're in the top 5 among our forwards.
But at age 21 and 20, when may be a more pertinent question than "if."

Maybe in an odd way this is the perfect type signing. The player does not block Patrick's path to #2 center if he performs as would Duchene at probably a 8.5x 7 contract. Also, doesn't block Frost. Insurance for both not a definite block as he can move to wing.

 

[Tripod]

"Blocked" is the word you're looking for.

You can make up fantasies all day about coaches/GMs doing the right thing, letting superior youth play, trading away useless players to make room, and never letting someone get usage they don't deserve... but we know better than that.

Rather block someone because we have too many good players than always never have enough.

Giroux didn't get blocked by Richards/Carter/Briere. So you can't talk in absolutes like it 100% will happen. And as I said before, if Patrick didn't have such a shitty year, we likely don't make this move. Going into a season with one C unknown is one thing. Going into it with 2 is a recipe for disaster.

Well, I guess we could have just added the next Weal instead.

 

[Appleyard]

Think Appleyard is a bit optimistic.

Giroux is 1LW right now, but I won't give him more than a year or two left at that level, he's 32 this year.
Voracek is a 2RW, first line scorer, but bad defense lowers his value. He turns 30, not sure he can adjust as he loses speed.
JVR on the other hand, with the right center should play better this season, he was more reliable in Toronto with Bozak.

Hayes is a pretty consistent 5x5 scorer: ES 39, 30, 35, 34, 41, that's borderline 2nd line production.
Compare to Voracek the last five years: ES 48, 32, 38, 50, 48 - average 43 v 36 for Hayes.
Figure maybe a couple years flirting with 40+ ES points, then 30-35 the rest of his contract, solid 3rd line production.
So while he's going to get overpaid, it's not going to be a gross overpay, back years he should still be a $4-5M value.
The real key is whether his defensive improvement is sustainable, as a plus defender he's worth a bit more.

Patrick and Frost, if they play up to their talent, won't be blocked by anyone, since in that case they're in the top 5 among our forwards.
But at age 21 and 20, when may be a more pertinent question than "if."

Objectively the "cliff" for players of Giroux's calibre is after their age 34 season, so 23-24, maybe 22-23 if he declines slightly earlier than average. At which point they go from 1st line to middle six level for 2-3 years before retiring.

Jake's D is not half as bad as people think. He grades out okay, and is comfortably one of the best ~20 RW's in the NHL, arguably flirting with top 10 still. And with his board-work, passing, PP ability and strength and edge-work it would be strange for him not to be a solid 2nd liner until age 33-34 going of history.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Hayes is a good player, guys like Filppula, MacDonald, Manning, etc. aren’t/weren’t.

 

[deadhead]

"Blocked" is the word you're looking for.

You can make up fantasies all day about coaches/GMs doing the right thing, letting superior youth play, trading away useless players to make room, and never letting someone get usage they don't deserve... but we know better than that.

Frost and Patrick won't be blocked by Hayes. Hayes would move to RW if they emerge.

Rubtsov et al will be competing for bottom six slots their first few years. And they won't be blocked by Raffl, Laughton and Hartman if they play up to their talent, they'll force trades for draft picks.

Farabee will make his own room, as will JOB if he ever gets his stuff together (I'd like him to spend a year in the USHL, then off to the AHL, he's a fool if he tries to go to college, go pro, save your money and if the NHL doesn't work, pay your own way and actually go to school).

 

[Curufinwe]

I'm listening to the 31 Thoughts podcast now and Friedman said Chicago was the frontrunner for Hayes. Obviously, they recorded before the trade.

 

[Danko]

I like the fact that it gives us someone new to try on the PK.

 

[CanadianFlyer88]

Lol. Give the guy a chance. If Hayes scores 25-30 goals this year I wonder if you will be upset because he is making six million dollars and we gave up a 5th?

You're expecting Hayes to score 25-30 goals when he has only cracked 20 goals once in his career and has never hit 50 points in a season.

Remember how everyone complained about how offensively challenged Couturier was? Hayes actually is that guy. He's a decent all around player, a guy who probably deserves the contract Couts currently has more than the overpayment he's going to get.

How is Hayes going to get to 25 goals on a regular basis when he's definitely not playing PP1 and will almost certainly be the 3C shortly, if not immediately.

I dread this potential signing and am hoping Hayes just walks away on July 1.

 

[Curufinwe]

I like the fact that it gives us someone new to try on the PK.

Yeah, Giroux and especially Couturier played too many minutes the past two years because of limited center depth. At ES and on the PK.

http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?agg...lter=gamesPlayed,gte,50&sort=timeOnIcePerGame

 

[kudymen]

I see a guy - who told people to stop getting excited about prospects - telling unexcited people to get a bit excited about a signing.

 

[deadhead]

Objectively the "cliff" for players of Giroux's calibre is after their age 34 season, so 23-24, maybe 22-23 if he declines slightly earlier than average. At which point they go from 1st line to middle six level for 2-3 years before retiring.

Jake's D is not half as bad as people think. He grades out okay, and is comfortably one of the best ~20 RW's in the NHL, arguably flirting with top 10 still. And with his board-work, passing, PP ability and strength and edge-work it would be strange for him not to be a solid 2nd liner until age 33-34 going of history.

I think for Jake to age well he'll have to embrace a more physical approach to the game, he's always played like a finesse 5'11 180 type, but he's slowing down and as that continues he needs to use his size to remain a top forward, go to the net more, shoot more, use his strength on the forecheck and not just to maintain puck possession. He also needs more consistent intensity, too often it's one great game followed by a couple where he goes through the motions. And he is not a good defensive player, the eyeball and metrics agree, this is where AV may make a big difference, he'll have no trouble cutting Jake's minutes if he's lazy on the backcheck.

 

[SnS]

Can’t wait to see 7+ mil for this guy.

 

[tucson83]

I don't get the concern here. If younger guys push him aside he can be traded. Edit: assuming he isn't Expansioned as is.

Until then having enough centers to fill a roster is pretty important. That could end up being just as huge as having a coach who can use the roster competently.

We didn't give up anyone we already have, and a fifth round pick is of marginal value with our prospect pool. Using it to make the roster assuredly better is acceptable.

Edit 2: this is the kind of thing Hextall should have been doing but he elected to do nothing. We are at the stage where final pieces need gathering. A lot depends on Patrick developing, but then again the current team is ****ed either way if he busts and there's little to he done about it.

You can't build entirely from within. It hasn't been done yet. It takes too long. This is what FA is for

i think that's why doing full rebuilds through the draft is dangerous because if you dont hit every player, it creates more holes and more likely you are never going to compete, it's better to just keep the players have hit and add on to them and when the time comes you replenish the prospect pool again and add more talent on this team from creating more holes.

 

[Curufinwe]

$6.5M is not atrocious for Hayes given that he is a solid 2C; people just need to accept that this is now the going rate for players of Hayes's caliber. The cap isn't $65M anymore. You're not getting a 27 year old 2C for $5M on a short term deal. That's fantasy land.

Remember when 32 year old Forsberg signed here for two years at $5.75m AAV under the first ever salary cap which was $39m?

That translates to $12.24m AAV under an $83m cap.

Peter Forsberg - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

 

[Striiker]

Rather block someone because we have too many good players than always never have enough.

Giroux didn't get blocked by Richards/Carter/Briere. So you can't talk in absolutes like it 100% will happen. And as I said before, if Patrick didn't have such a ****ty year, we likely don't make this move. Going into a season with one C unknown is one thing. Going into it with 2 is a recipe for disaster.

Well, I guess we could have just added the next Weal instead.

Didn't say it'll 100% happen but with every move like this it just increases the chances.

And Patrick's scoring last year isn't an excuse. He's a young player and development takes time, so those numbers are only relevant if you don't think he's going to be better next year. I have faith in him because of what he's showed in his first two years, although inconsistently. I see no reason to doubt him, just like I didn't doubt Couturier, Schenn, Sanheim, etc. when those guys came up and weren't perfect immediately. Clearly the team doesn't have faith in him so this move gets made.

Our future depends on guys like Patrick, Frost, Farabee, and Myers becoming legit players. Anything that has a chance of hindering or delaying that is a potential problem if handled poorly.

On the flip side, this could be a very good signing and help us a lot, I'm certainly not ruling that out. But it all depends on AV and Fletcher, which is where the doubt comes in.

 

[hatcher]

He might not even sign here. Colorado is interested and he's been down there for awhile so who knows. We need Hayes to take pressure off of Patrick.

 

[Appleyard]

You're expecting Hayes to score 25-30 goals when he has only cracked 20 goals once in his career and has never hit 50 points in a season.

Remember how everyone complained about how offensively challenged Couturier was? Hayes actually is that guy. He's a decent all around player, a guy who probably deserves the contract Couts currently has more than the overpayment he's going to get.

How is Hayes going to get to 25 goals on a regular basis when he's definitely not playing PP1 and will almost certainly be the 3C shortly, if not immediately.

I dread this potential signing and am hoping Hayes just walks away on July 1.

I mean, he does average 20 goals and 49pts/82 games played over his whole career though. He has just missed 5-10 games a year.

And generally gets ~40/82 just at EV without PP included.

I mean, if I were a betting man I would say he averages around 20g, 50pts a year over the next ~3 seasons. Which is an average 2C scoring wise, while above average on D.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

No conditions on the pick?

Its a 5th. Conditions, phffft.

 

[Appleyard]

He might not even sign here. Colorado is interested and he's been down there for awhile so who knows. We need Hayes to take pressure off of Patrick.

I mean, I think there is a good chance he does if they offer say $6m or so.

AV is here and he therefore knows fundamentals of system.
He knows he will be the 2C.
He knows he likely gets to play with 2/3 of JvR, Voracek and Konecny.
He is back on the East coast and closer to home.
While other teams are better than the Flyers I imagine a lot of players know of the "visible" potential, especially since he has played versus them quite a lot.

Not sure too many teams can offer the combo of linemates, 2C spot guaranteed, and have the cap space for him, on the east coast.

 

[CanadianFlyer88]

I mean, he does average 20 goals and 49pts/82 games played over his whole career though. He has just missed 5-10 games a year.

And generally gets ~40/82 just at EV without PP included.

I mean, if I were a betting man I would say he averages around 20g, 50pts a year over the next ~3 seasons. Which is an average 2C scoring wise, while above average on D.

Unless Patrick busts, there's no way Hayes consistently sniffs 50 points in Philly.

He'll take harder 5v5 minutes and won't be on PP1 and may not get many PP2 minutes.

This was a move to fill an immediate need but, like JVR last year, was a move that should have been made if the need was still there when the team was ready to contend.

 

[hatcher]

I mean, I think there is a good chance he does if they offer say $6m or so.

AV is here and he therefore knows fundamentals of system.
He knows he will be the 2C.
He knows he likely gets to play with 2/3 of JvR, Voracek and Konecny.
He is back on the East coast and closer to home.
While other teams are better than the Flyers I imagine a lot of players know of the "visible" potential, especially since he has played versus them quite a lot.

Not sure too many teams can offer the combo of linemates, 2C spot guaranteed, and have the cap space for him, on the east coast.

Agreed. Let's all hope for a somewhat good contract.

 

[Adtar02]

I think for Jake to age well he'll have to embrace a more physical approach to the game, he's always played like a finesse 5'11 180 type, but he's slowing down and as that continues he needs to use his size to remain a top forward, go to the net more, shoot more, use his strength on the forecheck and not just to maintain puck possession. He also needs more consistent intensity, too often it's one great game followed by a couple where he goes through the motions. And he is not a good defensive player, the eyeball and metrics agree, this is where AV may make a big difference, he'll have no trouble cutting Jake's minutes if he's lazy on the backcheck.

I agree with appleyard. Jake isn’t bad defensively and is a top 20 rw. He isn’t a selke candidate but he’s not terrible.