Confirmed Signing with Link: [PHI] Brayden Schenn (4 years, $5.125M AAV)

[Breakers]

Their advanced stats show Brayden is a slightly better offensive player (which reflects on the stat sheet as well) but Kadri is a much better possession, shot suppressing, and defensive player. Kadri was outscoring him up until 2 years ago.

Brayden scored 15 more points in like 7 or 8 more games. Kadri was snake bitten, and if we pretend he had normal production and played a full year, statistically he would have been outscored by 5 or 6 points.

Regardless, Kadri also played MUCH harder minutes, which explain his lack of production, compared to a more sheltered Schenn who gets the benefit of better linemates as well (Giroux and Simmonds vs Half a year of JVR and Komarov).

To pretend they aren't comparable players is laughable.

Plus Kadri plays the more important position.

I missed the part where Kadri is involved

 

[Kamiccolo]

Yep. Schenn hasn't played much C for quite a while. There are of course pluses and minuses on both sides, but when points get you paid and you play wing, it matters.

My point was that 15 more points in 7 more games isn't impressive, when the difference in linemates are JVR and Komarov vs Giroux and Simmonds. JVR was even out half the year, and Kadri was producing with a rotating cast of Holland, Grabner, etc.

Brayden also had a lot more offensive zone starts than Kadri. My point is put Kadri in Brayden's position and he easily scores at the same pace as him. They are comparable players.

I don't believe he earned a fair value contract, I think they over paid slightly.

 

[Kamiccolo]

I missed the part where Kadri is involved

Do we not look at comparable players when evaluating if a player was overpaid or not? If/when Trouba signs will he not be compared to Lindholm and Rielly?

 

[ReggiesLemons]

Considering Brayden wanted 5.5 for 1 year and they signed him for 5.125 for 4 years, I think that is a pretty good deal. I doubt the Flyers would have saved that much this season had they of went to arbitration. It's also possible it could have soured the relationship with Brayden. He could have signed for 1 more year next off-season and walked as a FA.

 

[Bryzard of Oz]

No complaints. Sexy Hexy comes through again

 

[FLYLine27*]

Two.

Good deal then.

 

[Curufinwe]

My point was that 15 more points in 7 more games isn't impressive, when the difference in linemates are JVR and Komarov vs Giroux and Simmonds. JVR was even out half the year, and Kadri was producing with a rotating cast of Holland, Grabner, etc.

Brayden also had a lot more offensive zone starts than Kadri. My point is put Kadri in Brayden's position and he easily scores at the same pace as him. They are comparable players.

I don't believe he earned a fair value contract, I think they over paid slightly.

You're living in a fantasy world if you don't think the 14 point gap in production from the most recent season is worth $0.625m a year in the current NHL market.

If you'd really want to talk comparables how about the fact Couturier got 44.6% OZ starts and scored at 1.96 points/60 5 on 5, while Kadri got 51.3% OZ starts and only managed 1.1 points/60 5 on 5? This suggests Kadri is hugely overpaid compared to Coots.

 

[The Kingslayer]

Fair deal for both sides.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Good deal, I expected 5M x 7 or 5.5M for less years. But Hextall got it done for just over 5M for an ideal 4 years. Not bad for a 24 year old 59 point player.

 

[GoJetsGo55]

Holy crap overpayment!

This will end up in a buyout within 3 yea....just kidding good contract. Good job Philly!

 

[Baemon Severson*]

Good deal but surprised he got .5 mill more than Palmieri

 

[Curufinwe]

Palmeri has one 40+ point season in his career.

Last three years

Schenn: 244 GP, 64 G, 83 A, 147 P, 0.602

Palmeri: 210 GP, 58 G, 59 A, 117 P , 0.557

 

[Baemon Severson*]

Palmeri has one 40+ point season in his career.

Look at Palmieri's scoring rates in Anaheim. They were easily top6 fwd quality. He just got the opportunity and pp time this year

 

[Striiker]

4 years is prefect and the cap hit is neither a steal nor an overpayment. Pretty much exactly what I wanted and expected, and certainly glad they didn't need to go to arbitration.

Schenns improved every single year since he got here. He also took a big step forward both in quality and consistency once Luke Schenn was traded during this past season. I believe he was nearly PPG from that point onwards. The points are great and he's become a valuable player at both 5v5 and PP, but he's also very physical and we've determined that he doesn't feel pain. There was a few times last year where something happened that we expected would keep him out of the game or lineup for a bit, but mere minutes later he's out there as if nothing happened.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

My point was that 15 more points in 7 more games isn't impressive, when the difference in linemates are JVR and Komarov vs Giroux and Simmonds. JVR was even out half the year, and Kadri was producing with a rotating cast of Holland, Grabner, etc.

Again, points are easier to come by from Center. That must be factored.

Brayden also had a lot more offensive zone starts than Kadri.

What? For 2015-16:

OZS%: Schenn 33.67% to Kadri 33.33%
DZS%: Schenn 30.72% to Kadri 31.80%
NZS%: Schenn 35.61% to Kadri 34.87%

That's a huge difference? Not to mention what limited impact ZS% seems to have outside of the real outliers.

My point is put Kadri in Brayden's position and he easily scores at the same pace as him. They are comparable players.

Except we have zero data on this. Can't claim it as fact.

What you're missing is how Schenn's role changed after the New Year. The PPG pace was absolutely due to an unsustainable SH%, but he became a puck carrier in the neutral zone. The 5v5 Entries, Controlled Entries, CE%, and Neutral Zone Score all skyrocketed. The kid took the next step. Now if he can't sustain that, it's one thing, but a contract had to be negotiated now. We can only operate with the info that we have.

 

[mja]

My point was that 15 more points in 7 more games isn't impressive, when the difference in linemates are JVR and Komarov vs Giroux and Simmonds. JVR was even out half the year, and Kadri was producing with a rotating cast of Holland, Grabner, etc.

Brayden also had a lot more offensive zone starts than Kadri. My point is put Kadri in Brayden's position and he easily scores at the same pace as him. They are comparable players.

I don't believe he earned a fair value contract, I think they over paid slightly.

There was a lot of line-juggling throughout last season but generally Schenn's place is on Couturier's wing, not Giroux's, with additional time on PP1 as the 5th option.

 

[rhinoshawarma]

fair

 

[sobrien]

I don't believe he earned a fair value contract, I think they over paid slightly.

Oh well. The things you have to do in negotiations to lock up young talent.

 

[ResilientBeast]

Seems a little much but if Flyer's fans are happy then it's probably a decent deal

 

[Hurricane Hugo]

Really good deal for the Flyers.

 

[Riptide]

The other thing is, the Flyers weren't going to get much of a discount in arbitration. The midpoint of their offer and Schenn's offer was $4.875m.

So 2 x $4.875m or 4 x $5.125m? I think the choice is clear.

Agreed. When you're talking about a 25 yr old and you have the chance to sign him for an additional 2 years and it'll only cost you 250k AAV, you do it no questions asked.

I mean 5.125m isn't a cheap contract by any means, but as long as Schenn is scoring 20 goals and putting up 50+ points, I don't think it's a bad one. Obviously the closer he is to 25/60 the better off PHI is, but even at 20/50 it's not a bad contract.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Seems a little much but if Flyer's fans are happy then it's probably a decent deal

It evens out. Considering his sheer importance to the team, Couturier (a better player than Schenn) is making less than Schenn. And, Schenn has been trending upwards consistently while being able to play all three forward positions, though he's more trustworthy on wings.

 

[FadeToBlack]

Pretty happy with this considering I thought he was getting at least 5.5 for anything 4+ years.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

Good deal flyer fans can't complain with this deal

 

[Tripod]

Nice strawman. Attack the poster as you have nothing to add. What part of him slightly outscoring Kadri while playing with Giroux and Simmonds on MUCH better QoC is false? Did Kadri not have the lowest shooting% of his career to start the year? Did he not play with JVR half a year and Komarov?

How is it unreasonable to say a center in a shutdown role with two vastly worse linemates scoring slightly less isn't a mystery?

He's also a winger, and on a playoff team.

Well you know, when a player is signed... Typically they are compared to other comparable players..

My point was that 15 more points in 7 more games isn't impressive, when the difference in linemates are JVR and Komarov vs Giroux and Simmonds. JVR was even out half the year, and Kadri was producing with a rotating cast of Holland, Grabner, etc.

Brayden also had a lot more offensive zone starts than Kadri. My point is put Kadri in Brayden's position and he easily scores at the same pace as him. They are comparable players.

I don't believe he earned a fair value contract, I think they over paid slightly.

Here is just a few things to consider why Schenn got more:

Schenn JUST had a 59 point season....Kadri had 45.
Schenn has a career high 59 points...Kadri has 50.

You mention linemates....should we ignore that Kadri has not been able to overtake Bozak for years to play with better linemates?

Kadri is a C...is bad on the wing. Schenn is a winger....who can play well at C when injuries occur....lik when Couts went down this year.

Your arguement is that Kadri coulda, shoulda, shoulda.....but Schenn DID. And so far, Kadri has NEVER hit the total Schenn just got, so why assume this year would be any different.

Schenn has increased his point total EVERY YEAR for 6 straight years. Kadri has yet to had 2 straight seasons of posting more points than the one before.

Kadri is a year older than Schenn...well almost 11 months.
Schenn's deal is for his 25, 26, 27 and 28 year old season...all prime years.
Kadri's deal is for his 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31 year old seasons...mostly prime, but could see a dip in his 30's which is typical.

Schenn is the Flyers #1 LW....Kadri is the #2 C in Toronto....maybe #3 in a few short years.

Last 2 years:
Schenn has .65 PPG
Kadri has .56 PPG....6 years 4.5 million....2nd line C
Couts has .52 PPG....6 years 4.33 million...2nd line C

Kadri got a NTC for 4 of his 6 years, Schenn did not get any so can get traded anywhere Philly wants.

AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, KADRI IS UNDERPAID. He should be getting 5 million just like Reilly Smith. But he lost out by not seeing what the market was set at during this summer. Good for the Leafs, but bad for Kadri.

Hope this clears some things up on why Kadri IS NOT a comparable to Schenn. Let's end it here.