Pheonix Copley of North Pole, AK...The Copulator is legit

[AbsentMojo]

As usual, I don't see anyone pooping on him, I see them calling it like it is. You can cheer for the guy, be proud of what he accomplished, root for him, and still think he's not a long-term solution.

I stand by what I said on Jan 9th:


"I tend to agree, but I don't think he's the guy to take us to the next level.
At the top % of the game, that'll make a difference. Look at the Boston game--the biggest difference was Swayman saved their asses long enough to turn it around.
I agree that you don't want to hide your problems with good goaltending and I fully agree that was Copley does best is NOT LOSE us games and that's the most important first step. It's nice because it puts the responsibility back on the team D. But when we start running into Bostons, I think it will make it apparent that Copley is merely very good--and for now, that's a good problem."

He's still hovering .900 night to night, that's exactly where he was a month ago. Beyond the stats I'll say he does have the knack so far for a timely big save simply by being cozy in position. Just like a month ago, just what the doctor ordered for now. Gonna need a lot more than .900 to go deep, though.

There is something about Copley that would be hard to measure with stats. His rebound control and general calmness in the crease create more controlled defensive sequences - which overall means guys like Durzi who are accident prone make less mistakes.

 

[johnjm22]

There is something about Copley that would be hard to measure with stats. His rebound control and general calmness in the crease create more controlled defensive sequences - which overall means guys like Durzi who are accident prone make less mistakes.

They've got stats for that

Rebounds Per Save: 0.049 (15th OA)
Expected Rebounds Per Save: 0.038
=Rebounds Above Expected: .011 (17th OA)

This would indicate his rebound control is average.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I think he's calm in net and that's great but every stat indicates he's average or below average

We're just coming from 15 years of Quick so any goalie is going to look like they're chilllllllll


I dunno, maybe I'm just jaded from so many years of Quick putting up 910+ and hearing how much that sucks then watching everyone fall over themselves for sub .900

 

[AbsentMojo]

They've got stats for that

Rebounds Per Save: 0.049 (15th OA)
Expected Rebounds Per Save: 0.038
=Rebounds Above Expected: .011 (17th OA)

This would indicate his rebound control is average.

Ya ok - but his overall approach to goaltending is very controlled uses his body and position more than athleticism which means the D has less work to do e.g as compared to JQ where they have to always worry about the weak side of the net.

 

[Sol]

There is something about Copley that would be hard to measure with stats. His rebound control and general calmness in the crease create more controlled defensive sequences - which overall means guys like Durzi who are accident prone make less mistakes.

Yeah all that is true but he’s extremely slow side to side. Like impressively slow. I do think he has elements to really like. His best trait is he catches everything and no rebounds. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. He’s done well overall. But let’s not pretend to be much else.

 

[AbsentMojo]

Yeah all that is true but he’s extremely slow side to side. Like impressively slow. I do think he has elements to really like. His best trait is he catches everything and no rebounds. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. He’s done well overall. But let’s not pretend to be much else.

Im not pumping Copley as much trying to explain his record

 

[Surf Nutz]

Save % on low danger shots: .970 (24th Best)
Save % on medium danger shots: .893 (15th Best)
Save % on high danger shots: .758 (9th Best)

*Compared to all goalies with minimum 20 games played.


Copely is in the upper echelon of goalies against quality scoring chances, but he's bottom tier when it comes to making routine saves.

They've got stats for that

Rebounds Per Save: 0.049 (15th OA)
Expected Rebounds Per Save: 0.038
=Rebounds Above Expected: .011 (17th OA)

This would indicate his rebound control is average.

link please?

 

[AbsentMojo]

link please?

Probably this NHL Goalie Statistics - my eye test says he controls a lot of rebounds..but the stats here dont bear that out... he's average according to this site

 

[Sol]

Probably this NHL Goalie Statistics - my eye test says he controls a lot of rebounds..but the stats here dont bear that out... he's average according to this site

Yup. We should be happy that he’s being average but riding his Oscar Meyer for being average is stupid. Just gotta be happy he’s better than our league bad dynamic duo. We will see what happens but definitely Copley has some issues.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

My 'concern' with him isn't that he's bad, honestly. I'm happy for him and for us. But he's not gonna win a Cup.

The road to the Final is absolutely littered with Brian Elliotts that failed their awesome teams in Round 2, guys who were perfectly adequate through 40 regular season games, but 7 games vs. an elite opponent means .900 isn't enough.

That doesn't make me some sort of myopic hater or whatever dumb bullshit insults keep getting hurled at people that are actually supporting their opinions, I'd LOVE to see some evidence that he's more than what we're suggesting. Edit: Beyond his record because otherwise I'll present Budaj, Jones, Scrivens. Easy.

 

[johnjm22]

link please?

Moneypuck.com

Ranks are based on all goalies with at least 20 games played.

 

[Sol]

Yeah no one is saying he’s a bad goalie, he’s just nothing more than average at best.

 

[johnjm22]

Copely has been completely serviceable. He's been slightly better than his overall SV% would indicate.

Based on the analytics he's a positive impact player (albeit slightly so).

 

[KINGS17]

I think he's calm in net and that's great but every stat indicates he's average or below average

We're just coming from 15 years of Quick so any goalie is going to look like they're chilllllllll


I dunno, maybe I'm just jaded from so many years of Quick putting up 910+ and hearing how much that sucks then watching everyone fall over themselves for sub .900

At his best Quick played with controlled agression. I think Quick is one of the hardest working goalies I have ever seen when it comes to getting low looking through screens and tracking the puck. When he is/was on top of his game, Quick simply refused to lose sight of the puck.

By tracking the puck so well, Quick was able to anticipate plays and go post to post much better than the average goaltender. Controlled aggression is chill.

 

[Sparky206]

Maybe Copley has just put it togeather and under Randford they've unlocked his next level and he is just good.

Theres average stats, then theres 17-3-1. I just don't think you can get there from being servicable on a team thats 10th in the league.

 

[Axl Rhoadz]

Yeah no one is saying he’s a bad goalie, he’s just nothing more than average at best.

This goes right up there with 'Fiala has not made this team better.'

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Maybe Copley has just put it togeather and under Randford they've unlocked his next level and he is just good.

Theres average stats, then theres 17-3-1. I just don't think you can get there from being servicable on a team thats 10th in the league.

Again, that's literally exactly how he's gotten there.

GAA is 2.74, good for 19th amongst goalies with 20 games or more.
Save % is .903, good for 28th amongst that cohort.

This 'next level' is .1 and half a goal against worst than Quick typically put up with this forum completely eviscerating him, the only difference is the team in front is pretty f***ing dominant offensively and now also defensively.

i'm all for pumping the guy and being happy for him but there is some serious delusion going on about what he literally is right now.

 

[lumbergh]

Again, that's literally exactly how he's gotten there.

GAA is 2.74, good for 19th amongst goalies with 20 games or more.
Save % is .903, good for 28th amongst that cohort.

This 'next level' is .1 and half a goal against worst than Quick typically put up with this forum completely eviscerating him, the only difference is the team in front is pretty f***ing dominant offensively and now also defensively.

i'm all for pumping the guy and being happy for him but there is some serious delusion going on about what he literally is right now.

I don't know that the Kings have been dominant defensively . They did give up 10 goals in the two games prior to the break. Copley is providing competent goaltending on a team that didn't have it before, and it's making a big difference.

If you look into the numbers for this year, the Kings aren't giving up substantially fewer shots in front of Copley (28.2 per 60) versus Quick (28.7 per 60). The average shot distance is almost exactly the same. Copley is making the difference by stopping 2.2% more shots (.903 vs .881), but that's actually a pretty large difference, to the tune of 0.7 goals per 60 minutes. That's often the difference between a win and a loss for a team that has played a lot of close games.

Copley is no Patrick Roy, but he's playing as a legitimate starter this season and that's good enough for the Kings right now.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I don't know that the Kings have been dominant defensively . They did give up 10 goals in the two games prior to the break. Copley is providing competent goaltending on a team that didn't have it before, and it's making a big difference.

If you look into the numbers for this year, the Kings aren't giving up substantially fewer shots in front of Copley (28.2 per 60) versus Quick (28.7 per 60). The average shot distance is almost exactly the same. Copley is making the difference by stopping 2.2% more shots (.903 vs .881), but that's actually a pretty large difference, to the tune of 0.7 goals per 60 minutes. That's often the difference between a win and a loss for a team that has played a lot of close games.

Copley is no Patrick Roy, but he's playing as a legitimate starter this season and that's good enough for the Kings right now.

They've been a top 7-10 team all season by many defensive metrics but the penalty kill was absolutely abysmal due to both goaltending AND team could NOT figure it out, that's probably the biggest difference on the defensive side, you're right, dominant probably isn't the right word at least

 

[Fishhead]

Copley is average, nothing wrong with that. An average NHL goalie will absolutely win this team games given the firepower. His GSAx is 19th in the league, just around where most of his other stats are. That's solid. All factors taken into consideration he's almost dead center of the league.

He may have elevated his play to another level but he's not in the upper echelon. Not many of those goalies are available, so he's about as good as we are going to get for now.

If I were Blake, I'd take whatever Chychrun offer he is pondering and float that towards the NYI for Sorokin. That team is directionless right now and aren't going to be making noise anytime soon. He's UFA after next season so they could get a haul, but it's always hard to predict Lou Lam.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

yeah and again...I'm ot at all trying to poopoo Copley here.

I'm just trying to say imagine what the Kings would be doing with a Saros, etc.

 

[Sol]

This goes right up there with 'Fiala has not made this team better.'

 

[bouncesonly]

Looking forward to what Copley can do if the Kings get to the playoffs this year. I don't think he'll go on a bender a la Jake Oettinger last season, but don't see him really shitting the bed either based on his AHL regular/playoff save percentage. Feels like a coin flip, but also doesn't lol.

 

[Cianide]

Copley is elite.

 

[Lt Dan]

I dunno, maybe I'm just jaded from so many years of Quick putting up 910+ and hearing how much that sucks then watching everyone fall over themselves for sub .900

That will always be the debate with Copely

Is he

1) The latest reclaimation goalie that our org shined in to a diamond
or
2) An average goalie showing us how bad Cal and Quick have been