Unless Sullivan plays very differently than he has been and than he likes, I don’t see it…he likes speed on the wings and for wingers to get on the forecheck hard..
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- Jun 13, 2010
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I mean, I get what you're saying, but in the grand scheme of "what effects do zone starts have?", I'm not saying the effect is zero but what I will say it's that there's about 50 other things going on that effect overall production much more, to the point where zone starts are irrelevant. It's like looking at a fatal car accident and suggesting that the scent of the air fresher matters when the road, driver skill, speed, type of vehicle, etc have a much bigger impact.
The example with Acciari doesn't really help. Again, I believe this is a narrative where you are skipping over several much more significant factors to illustrate a point. You could run a simple regression analysis overall all available metrics and the Rsq value of zone starts would be minuscule. This might be a good example of "correlation does not equal causation."
Acciari was brought in to anchor a defensive-oriented 4th line. With that, he's getting 4th line players with 4th line minutes. Put that on top of Sullivan's system, where historically, we've watched productive players lose production, worse linemates, and a different role with likely less ice time (didn't look); it's not hard to see why there is a dip in production. Worse for the case is the fact that merely stating "14% ozone starts make him bad" ignores how many times the players shift starts on the ice, special teams (Acciari was a pk'er for us), and even neutral zone starts.
If you want Acciari to score more, there are more impactful things you do outside of zone starts: put him in the top 6. This will come with more offensive zone starts but more importantly, it gives Acciari two high skilled player, for example Crosby and Rust or Malkin and Rakell/Bunting. Perhaps most importantly, it increases his ice time. More ice time with better linemates >>>> "zone starts" when you see a boost in production there. You can also put him on the PP. Again, that will count as a "zone start" but the fact that he's playing 5 on 4 and it likely with a group consisting of Sid, Geno, Letang, and Karlsson, yeah we would most likely see a boost in stats but it be beyond disingenuous to suggest that it's the zone start in that case and NOT the man advantage and not the significant increase in linemate abilities.
I'm sorry, man. There's just so little evidence that zone starts have any significant effect on a player's production. There's just SO many other things that effect it before zone that it's impossible to say whether or not it has any effect.
MoneyPuck.com -Shot Maps
Career and Game by Game Stats and Shot Maps For Each NHL Player
moneypuck.com
Here's his moneypuck chart. 53.7% start on the fly. Overall, 31.1% start in the defensive zone. 5v5, it's 26.3%. So a quarter of the time, he starts in the dzone, 56% on the fly, the rest in the neutral or ozone. And you're suggesting THIS is why he sucks? In 2019, 5v5 he potted 25pts in 65gp with 23.3% dzone starts. You're telling me that Sullivan insisting he start in the dzone a mere 3% more is the sole difference in him dropping down to 7 points in 55GP? No. Not buying that one bit. Maybe Acciari sucks?
You can call it "usage," and that would be fair. He's been a primarily defensive use player. He's been given sucky, defensive-orientated linemates and Sullivan's system is stale and sucky. That would all be fair. Zone starts? Lol, no.
Last edited:
DesertedPenguin
Registered User
- Mar 11, 2007
- 7,837
- 8,909
Sure, but Dubas isn't exactly going to pay any attention to some fan on a message board any more than he'd care what The Hockey Guy has to say.
BlindWillyMcHurt
ti kallisti
- May 31, 2004
- 36,642
- 31,846
I think putting Eller at center over Malkin in order to "help" him sounds EXACTLY like something this team would do!
...
That's not a good thing.
...
That's not a good thing.
I mean, I get what you're saying, but in the grand scheme of "what effects do zone starts have?", I'm not saying the effect is zero but what I will say it's that there's about 50 other things going on that effect overall production much more, to the point where zone starts are irrelevant. It's like looking at a fatal car accident and suggesting that the scent of the air fresher matters when the road, driver skill, speed, type of vehicle, etc have a much bigger impact.
The example with Acciari doesn't really help. Again, I believe this is a narrative where you are skipping over several much more significant factors to illustrate a point. You could run a simple regression analysis overall all available metrics and the Rsq value of zone starts would be minuscule. This might be a good example of "correlation does not equal causation."
Acciari was brought in to anchor a defensive-oriented 4th line. With that, he's getting 4th line players. Put that on top of Sullivan's system where historically we've watched productive players lose production, worse linemates, and a different role with likely less icetime (didn't look), it's not hard to see why there is a dip in production. Worse for the case is the fact that merely stating "14% ozone starts make him bad" ignores how many times the players shift starts on the ice, special teams (Acciari was a pk'er for us), and even neutral zone starts.
If you want Acciari to score more, there are more impactful things you do outside of zone starts: put him in the top 6. This will come with more offensive zone starts but more importantly, it gives Acciari two high skilled player, for example Crosby and Rust or Malkin and Rakell/Bunting. Perhaps most importantly, it increases his ice time. More ice time with better linemates >>>> "zone starts" when you see a boost in production there. You can also put him on the PP. Again, that will count as a "zone start" but the fact that he's playing 5 on 4 and it likely with a group consisting of Sid, Geno, Letang, and Karlsson, yeah we would most likely see a boost in stats but it be beyond disingenuous to suggest that it's the zone start in that case and NOT the man advantage and not the significant increase in linemate abilities.
I'm sorry, man. There's just so little evidence that zone starts have any significant effect on a player's production. There's just SO many other things that effect it before zone that it's impossible to say whether or not it has any effect.
MoneyPuck.com -Shot Maps
Career and Game by Game Stats and Shot Maps For Each NHL Player
Here's his moneypuck chart. 53.7% start on the fly. Overall, 31.1% start in the defensive zone. 5v5, it's 26.3%. So a quarter of the time, he starts in the dzone, 56% on the fly, the rest in the neutral or ozone. And you're suggesting THIS is why he sucks? In 2019, 5v5 he potted 25pts in 65gp with 23.3% dzone starts. You're telling me that Sullivan insisting he start in the dzone a mere 3% more is the sole difference in him dropping down to 7 points in 55GP? No. Not buying that one bit. Maybe Acciari sucks?
You can call it "usage," and that would be fair. He's been a primarily defensive use player. He's been given sucky, defensive-orientated linemates and Sullivan's system is stale and sucky. That would all be fair. Zone starts? Lol, no.
The difference between 31% DZ starts and 23% is 8 % not 3%…aren’t you a math guy lol?
Never said he would…just that everyone else seems to acknowledge Sullivan is not a top 5 coach in this league…except for our front office and ownership lol
- Jun 13, 2010
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I was comparing 5v5 dzone starts vs production.
In 2019, his 5v5 dzone start % was 23.3% with Florida.
In 2023, his 5v5 dzone start % was 26.3% with Pittsburgh.
If my math serves me right, 26.3 - 23.3 is indeed 3%.
I was point out that he had similar 5v5 zone starts with Florida in 2019 as he did with us in 2023, and yet, his 2019 5v5 production was 25pts in 65gp and only 7pts in 55gp with us in 2023. This suggests that when it comes to Acciari, dzone start % may not be a reliable metric for why he sucked with us.
Read man. Aren't you are lawyer, lol?
StIvany4Norris
Registered User
- Oct 13, 2020
- 650
- 762
It was confusing lol…I see it now but you lead with 31% DZ last year and then you qualify it and you didn’t do that for the earlier stat…
- Jun 13, 2010
- 43,771
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Jag68Sid87
Sullivan gots to go!
I hope the camp battles are for spots from lines 2-4.
O'Connor-Crosby-Rust (I am not against breaking this line up, but I prefer to start how we finished because I see potential with this line)
Bunting-Malkin-??? (Rakell is the default option, and the guy who finished up here, but I would like him in the bottom six to balance out the lineup and provide some goals)
I assume Sullivan wants Hayes centering the third and Eller centering the fourth. But if we could put Hayes on the wing, and give one of the rookies a chance at center, I think it would make the team more balanced, talented, youthful and better overall.
Candidates to play RW with Malkin, other than Rakell: Puustinen and Glass, mainly. Sullivan will never put Puustinen there, so maybe Glass can win that job and bring some of that balance that we need.
Lastly, if there is one player that I hope is a lock for a fourth-line role it would be Puljujarvi. He won't be, because he was in and out of Sullivan's lineup even late last season, with far fewer options than now, but I think Puljujarvi could be a great fourth-liner if given a chance.
This is the lineup I am rooting for, or close to it:
O'Connor-Crosby-Rust
Bunting-Malkin-Glass
Hayes-Yager-Rakell
Puljujarvi-Lizotte/Eller/Poulin/Ponomarev-Puustinen
This puts Beauvillier and Acciari in the AHL, but I don't have a problem with that. Three of those four centers vying for the fourth job could stick if Yager gets nine games and is sent back to the WHL (which is what they SHOULD do, but who knows if they do the right thing). The right thing is giving him the nine games, I mean.
I am also rooting for Filip Kral to outplay Grzelcyk and Aho, but he is obviously a big long shot. Also rooting for Blomqvist to force them to keep three goaltenders, but again unlikely.
KrisLetAngry
MrJukeBoy
I'm hoping for some radical wild changes.
DOC Crosby Glass/Puss
Bunting Malkin Rust
Beau Hayes Rakell
Puji/Pono Eller Accairi
I just don't see Yager making it. One more year in Juniors probably will be good for him.
I'd like to see Eller or Accairi traded for low compensation so we can fit some younger guys and try them on the 4th line and see the NHL pace they play at.
I am dreaming with Rust on the 2nd but it'd be fun to try Glass up there.
Coastal Kev
There will be "I told you so's" Bet on it
KrisLetAngry
MrJukeBoy
I am hoping mid season Dubas works the phones and Accairi Eller and Rakell. Trading one of them would do wonders for us. I think Injuries and deadline will help.
Eller at a deadline should get lots of interest. He instantly makes a line better defensively and you don't need to hear any complaints from him.
Malkinstheman
Registered User
- Aug 12, 2012
- 10,564
- 10,733
Report: Edmonton Oilers exploring Cody Ceci, Brett Kulak trades to clear cap space for offer sheets | TSN
The Edmonton Oilers are exploring the possibility of moving defencemen Cody Ceci and Brett Kulak to help clear cap space, Postmedia's Bruce Garrioch reports.
www.tsn.ca
So according to this, teams are asking for a 1st or 2nd to acquires Ceci's 3.25 x 1 or Kulak's 2.75 x 2 contracts.
As it stands right now, the Pens could open around 2.5m in space by running a roster of 13F 6D and 2G. If you can trade Eller, getting another high pick for one of Edmonton's D would be tidy business.
- Jun 13, 2010
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Love seeing teams willing to stick it to the OilersReport: Edmonton Oilers exploring Cody Ceci, Brett Kulak trades to clear cap space for offer sheets | TSN
The Edmonton Oilers are exploring the possibility of moving defencemen Cody Ceci and Brett Kulak to help clear cap space, Postmedia's Bruce Garrioch reports.
So according to this, teams are asking for a 1st or 2nd to acquires Ceci's 3.25 x 1 or Kulak's 2.75 x 2 contracts.
As it stands right now, the Pens could open around 2.5m in space by running a roster of 13F 6D and 2G. If you can trade Eller, getting another high pick for one of Edmonton's D would be tidy business.
StIvany4Norris
Registered User
- Oct 13, 2020
- 650
- 762
Fine with all of that too, I meant more so 'what I would like to see [work/mesh to start]'
OnMyOwn
Worlds Apart
- Sep 7, 2005
- 19,191
- 4,835
I’d probably rather have Ceci and a first/second since he only has a year left, but there’s no room on this roster without shipping someone out.
Gurglesons
Registered User
GilbertSeinfeld
Registered User
- Mar 4, 2024
- 1,503
- 1,933
Every team should wait until the deadline to match the offer sheet passes, and then see how desperate the Oilers are to deal cap space away.Love seeing teams willing to stick it to the Oilers
Dubas should absolutely be taking on whatever garbage he can for whatever picks he can get.
He should be working to open up some cap space right now to take on more garbage. If he can cap dump Eller so that he can take on Kulak or whomever, do it.
He should be working to open up some cap space right now to take on more garbage. If he can cap dump Eller so that he can take on Kulak or whomever, do it.
Tom Hanks
Spelling mistakes brought to you by my iPhone.
- Nov 10, 2017
- 31,480
- 34,057
I mean, I get what you're saying, but in the grand scheme of "what effects do zone starts have?", I'm not saying the effect is zero but what I will say it's that there's about 50 other things going on that effect overall production much more, to the point where zone starts are irrelevant. It's like looking at a fatal car accident and suggesting that the scent of the air fresher matters when the road, driver skill, speed, type of vehicle, etc have a much bigger impact.
The example with Acciari doesn't really help. Again, I believe this is a narrative where you are skipping over several much more significant factors to illustrate a point. You could run a simple regression analysis overall all available metrics and the Rsq value of zone starts would be minuscule. This might be a good example of "correlation does not equal causation."
Acciari was brought in to anchor a defensive-oriented 4th line. With that, he's getting 4th line players with 4th line minutes. Put that on top of Sullivan's system, where historically, we've watched productive players lose production, worse linemates, and a different role with likely less ice time (didn't look); it's not hard to see why there is a dip in production. Worse for the case is the fact that merely stating "14% ozone starts make him bad" ignores how many times the players shift starts on the ice, special teams (Acciari was a pk'er for us), and even neutral zone starts.
If you want Acciari to score more, there are more impactful things you do outside of zone starts: put him in the top 6. This will come with more offensive zone starts but more importantly, it gives Acciari two high skilled player, for example Crosby and Rust or Malkin and Rakell/Bunting. Perhaps most importantly, it increases his ice time. More ice time with better linemates >>>> "zone starts" when you see a boost in production there. You can also put him on the PP. Again, that will count as a "zone start" but the fact that he's playing 5 on 4 and it likely with a group consisting of Sid, Geno, Letang, and Karlsson, yeah we would most likely see a boost in stats but it be beyond disingenuous to suggest that it's the zone start in that case and NOT the man advantage and not the significant increase in linemate abilities.
I'm sorry, man. There's just so little evidence that zone starts have any significant effect on a player's production. There's just SO many other things that effect it before zone that it's impossible to say whether or not it has any effect.
MoneyPuck.com -Shot Maps
Career and Game by Game Stats and Shot Maps For Each NHL Player
Here's his moneypuck chart. 53.7% start on the fly. Overall, 31.1% start in the defensive zone. 5v5, it's 26.3%. So a quarter of the time, he starts in the dzone, 56% on the fly, the rest in the neutral or ozone. And you're suggesting THIS is why he sucks? In 2019, 5v5 he potted 25pts in 65gp with 23.3% dzone starts. You're telling me that Sullivan insisting he start in the dzone a mere 3% more is the sole difference in him dropping down to 7 points in 55GP? No. Not buying that one bit. Maybe Acciari sucks?
You can call it "usage," and that would be fair. He's been a primarily defensive use player. He's been given sucky, defensive-orientated linemates and Sullivan's system is stale and sucky. That would all be fair. Zone starts? Lol, no.
Yeah it’s less about zone starts (since on the fly is by far the biggest number) and more about match ups, coaches instructions, line mates etc.
A huge factor is how well a player/line can get the puck out of the D zone. Because if your stuck in your own end you can’t score and most likely getting scored on at a higher rate. Hayes will help in that area alone if nothing else.
Last edited:
Buddy Bizarre
Registered User
- Jul 9, 2021
- 6,756
- 4,844
Gurglesons
Registered User
Which is why the production point is valuable to mention, because Sullivan's deployment is essentially for the top two lines to go out and score and the bottom two lines to not get scored on.
- Jun 13, 2010
- 43,771
- 22,929
Yes, agreed. If the aragument was "Acciari was used more of a defense role on the 4th line and what's why production dropped" I would totally agree.
KrisLetAngry
MrJukeBoy
Report: Edmonton Oilers exploring Cody Ceci, Brett Kulak trades to clear cap space for offer sheets | TSN
The Edmonton Oilers are exploring the possibility of moving defencemen Cody Ceci and Brett Kulak to help clear cap space, Postmedia's Bruce Garrioch reports.
So according to this, teams are asking for a 1st or 2nd to acquires Ceci's 3.25 x 1 or Kulak's 2.75 x 2 contracts.
As it stands right now, the Pens could open around 2.5m in space by running a roster of 13F 6D and 2G. If you can trade Eller, getting another high pick for one of Edmonton's D would be tidy business.
I was actually semi hoping the Penguins would take on Ceci for a 2nd or something before the Glass move. Though I imagine Dubas probably told Armstrong he wouldn't do this.
Love seeing teams willing to stick it to the Oilers
They did hire Bowman so I'm all for this.
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