Salary Cap: Pens Salary Cap Thread: If we score 6 we win, its science!

[AuroraBorealis]

There is no reason to sign Jarry until he proves he isn’t a joke in the playoffs. You shouldn’t even consider it, especially if he wants north of $5 million.

It’s okay to not re-sign every single player. I know posters sometimes forget that with our lazy ass GM.

Even if he has a good playoffs it's not an indication of anything for 2023-24 and beyond.

Fleury had a .933 in 2008 and then went .908 to as low as .834 for 5 straight playoffs.

Either you trust in a goalie's ability and mental fortitude in high pressure situations or you don't.
And if you send Jarry packing, you better have a pretty damn good backup plan.

 

[Gurglesons]

Even if he has a good playoffs it's not an indication of anything for 2023-24 and beyond.

Fleury had a .933 in 2008 and then went .908 to as low as .834 for 5 straight playoffs.

Either you trust in a goalie's ability and mental fortitude in high pressure situations or you don't.
And if you send Jarry packing, you better have a pretty damn good backup plan.

I think this depends on how much you view Jarry as vital to this team’s success. I’m not sure of the answer for that.

Desmith seems to put up pretty good numbers too, so I question if we couldn’t acquire less of a commitment if Jarry is pushing for 6+ and term.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

I think this depends on how much you view Jarry as vital to this team’s success. I’m not sure of the answer for that.

Desmith seems to put up pretty good numbers too, so I question if we couldn’t acquire less of a commitment if Jarry is pushing for 6+ and term.

Nobody's more important. He's a starter. He controls outcomes more than anyone else.

If Jarry has designs on being a top 10 goalie again like last year, then good luck replacing him with someone who gives you as good of a chance of making the playoffs.
I mean it's possible, but you could end up regretting things badly. The math doesn't look good to hit paydirt. Term is not as bad with goalies, since they can play well in their early to mid 30's still. Plus the salary cap is gonna get huge bumps reportedly. Our perception of what ~6mil is will change.

 

[Gurglesons]

Nobody's more important. He's a starter. He controls outcomes more than anyone else.

If Jarry has designs on being a top 10 goalie again like last year, then good luck replacing him with someone who gives you as good of a chance of making the playoffs.
I mean it's possible, but you could end up regretting things badly. The math doesn't look good to hit paydirt. Term is not as bad with goalies, since they can play well in their early to mid 30's still. Plus the salary cap is gonna get huge bumps reportedly. Our perception of what ~6mil is will change.

I'm not sure actual team success over the last few years in the playoffs adds up to this view point.

I'm on a fence with Jarry. I think we would probably regret moving on from him, but I also think that our team and system can probably get league average goaltending out of anyone.

If we can add a top pairing LD / top six winger and a goaltender like Reimer over Jarry and the status quo, I'd probably go with strengthening our forward and defensive depth.

Won't be upset if we sign Jarry though.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

I'm not sure actual success over the last few years in the playoffs adds up to this view point.

How?
We literally just lost a series we dominated because he was unavailable. He is critical.

He's played 9 playoff games. There are no smart takeaways to be made from that kinda sample size. It's all just emotions.

What we do know is that he has a higher talent level than most goalies. Relatively durable too and in his prime.
Everyone loves change for the sake of it until it happens and things go horribly wrong.

These kinda goalies aren't as available as people think. Even if one is, he might not fit in well here.

 

[Gurglesons]

How?
We literally just lost a series we dominated because he was unavailable. He is critical.

He's played 9 playoff games. There are no smart takeaways to be made from that kinda sample size. It's all just emotions.

What we do know is that he has a higher talent level than most goalies. Relatively durable too and in his prime.
Everyone loves change for the sake of it until it happens and things go horribly wrong.

These kinda goalies aren't as available as people think. Even if one is, he might not fit in well here.

Outside of Tampa's cups every cup winner in recent years has had run of the mill goaltending that just decides to go on a hot streak. You can throw Holtby in with Vasi if you'd like, but I'd argue that at that point in his career he was nowhere near his peak.

And I think your point of the last series is exactly my point. Why not invest money in more pieces to be competitive than a piece that could easily get injured and completely tank your playoff chances?

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Outside of Tampa's cups every cup winner in recent years has had run of the mill goaltending that just decides to go on a hot streak. You can throw Holtby in with Vasi if you'd like, but I'd argue that at that point in his career he was nowhere near his peak.

That's because a team like Colorado had an absurd roster considering it's the salary cap era, with contracts and ages aligning perfectly.
We will have no such arrangement. We will depend far more heavily on our starter to win us series'.

You don't need a goalie to be at the perfect point in his career trajectory. You just need him to be good for 2 weeks to a maximum of 2 months. That's what happened with Holtby and his .922.
Our organization would probably be happy with a round victory, so Jarry only needs to be strong for a short while.

We know he is capable of being hot for 2 weeks. It just happened. Now we just need the timing to be more favorable.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

I think Jarrys contract will depend on the post season play.

I wonder if we gave him 6 years he'd take 5 for 30 guaranteed million. I have a feeling 5.5 or 6 may be the number

 

[AuroraBorealis]

And I think your point of the last series is exactly my point. Why not invest money in more pieces to be competitive than a piece that could easily get injured and completely tank your playoff chances?

Any starter could easily get injured. It's the natural order with the demands of the position. Look at goalie injuries around the league right now.
Jarry isn't made of glass. We just had bad timing. DeSmith I'm more concerned about, with his multiple surgeries.

 

[Gurglesons]

Any starter could easily get injured. It's the natural order with the demands of the position. Look at goalie injuries around the league right now.
Jarry isn't made of glass. We just had bad timing. DeSmith I'm more concerned about, with his multiple surgeries.

Well Desmith is easy to move on from if we want to. Jarry if we sign him to what I’m pushing against at 6-7 x 6 is not. See Martin Jones, etc.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

I think Jarrys contract will depend on the post season play.

I wonder if we gave him 6 years he'd take 5 for 30 guaranteed million. I have a feeling 5.5 or 6 may be the number

It will but it shouldn't. One playoffs will tell Hextall nothing. It's just a fallacy.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I don't really see this team sticking its neck out and testing the goalie market as opposed to just handing Jarry a market value deal. Barring another absolute shitshow like he had against the Isles, I think he's as good as re-signed, even if he's injured again.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Well Desmith is easy to move on from if we want to. Jarry if we sign him to what I’m pushing against at 6-7 x 6 is not. See Martin Jones, etc.

Jarry's fundamentals are stronger than most goalies. He's quite balanced.
That will continue to be a thing for the rest of his career. He may have times where he struggles with confidence, but he'll have the base there to bounce back.

The goalie who replaces him would be unlikely to be as talented. He probably won't handle the puck nearly as well, so we'll lose those easy breakouts too.

I mean I'm open to it if there's a glowing option, but I doubt it'll be available. It's not like we have the most pull of any organization in the league. The team's old.

 

[SEALBound]

I think this depends on how much you view Jarry as vital to this team’s success. I’m not sure of the answer for that.

Desmith seems to put up pretty good numbers too, so I question if we couldn’t acquire less of a commitment if Jarry is pushing for 6+ and term.

Regular season success or playoff success?

RS, we can certainly hide a questionable performance here and there. Playoffs? Not so much. We need Jarry playing well to win. There's no doubt that if we had an average Jarry in net last year, we would beat the Rangers. And I think it actually comes down to "goalies making the big save at the right time" rather than an overall performance. Looking at MAF in 09, his stats were mediocre at best but there's no doubt he made big, BIG saves when it mattered most.

That said, you can replace Jarry with any name. It doesn't have to be Jarry himself, it's just any goalie, however, the goalie market is starting to take a nosedive in terms of talent. There aren't a lot of top-level goalies in the league at the moment. You have a couple of cream-of-the-crop guys - Vasi, Shesty, and then your year-to-year rotator. Then you have a collection of guys that are quite good and certainly can peak - Sorokin, Vanecek, Samsonov, etc. I would put Jarry in that group.

I don't think he's worth $6mil+. I think a 5x5 is about the max I would do and that's if he would take a $5milx2-3yr.

 

[WickedWrister]

 

[Gurglesons]

Regular season success or playoff success?

RS, we can certainly hide a questionable performance here and there. Playoffs? Not so much. We need Jarry playing well to win. There's no doubt that if we had an average Jarry in net last year, we would beat the Rangers. And I think it actually comes down to "goalies making the big save at the right time" rather than an overall performance. Looking at MAF in 09, his stats were mediocre at best but there's no doubt he made big, BIG saves when it mattered most.

That said, you can replace Jarry with any name. It doesn't have to be Jarry himself, it's just any goalie, however, the goalie market is starting to take a nosedive in terms of talent. There aren't a lot of top-level goalies in the league at the moment. You have a couple of cream-of-the-crop guys - Vasi, Shesty, and then your year-to-year rotator. Then you have a collection of guys that are quite good and certainly can peak - Sorokin, Vanecek, Samsonov, etc. I would put Jarry in that group.

I don't think he's worth $6mil+. I think a 5x5 is about the max I would do and that's if he would take a $5milx2-3yr.

I’m not sure I agree with Sorokin being in that group. Sorokin is the best goalie in the league this year and was top three last year.

I would do 5x5 for Jarry.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

How?
We literally just lost a series we dominated because he was unavailable. He is critical.

He's played 9 playoff games. There are no smart takeaways to be made from that kinda sample size. It's all just emotions.

What we do know is that he has a higher talent level than most goalies. Relatively durable too and in his prime.
Everyone loves change for the sake of it until it happens and things go horribly wrong.

These kinda goalies aren't as available as people think. Even if one is, he might not fit in well here.

The Penguins lost because their top 2 goalies were injured

 

[Pancakes]

The problem with goaltending is even with the so-called elite guys it can be random as f***. Look at the season Shesterkin is having this year. Look at Vaslilevsky's career. Even he's gone from dominant seasons (925ish save %s) to just above average (915ish). Shesterkin went from a 935 last year to 913 so far this year.

It's extremely common for goalies to win the Vezina and then fall off hard the next year.

I think you probably do have to pay Jarry and hope for the best unless he wants something outrageous. I'd probably be fine with him for 6 or less. But I have very little confidence that we'll get consistent results regardless of what we pay him. There's just so many unknowns with the position.

 

[SomeDude]

I think the Jarry decision will come down to what the other options are more so than Jarry’s body of work so far. If they see a way to upgrade, they’ll let him walk. If they don’t, they’ll keep him.

It just worries me of who Hextall may consider an upgrade if you look at his history of goalies as a GM

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

The problem with goaltending is even with the so-called elite guys it can be random as f***. Look at the season Shesterkin is having this year. Look at Vaslilevsky's career. Even he's gone from dominant seasons (925ish save %s) to just above average (915ish). Shesterkin went from a 935 last year to 913 so far this year.

It's extremely common for goalies to win the Vezina and then fall off hard the next year.

I think you probably do have to pay Jarry and hope for the best unless he wants something outrageous. I'd probably be fine with him for 6 or less. But I have very little confidence that we'll get consistent results regardless of what we pay him. There's just so many unknowns with the position.

Which is why consistent playoff performance is what I'd base signing a goalie on. Elite goalies see their play dip from one regular season to the next, but the ones that are truly worth their salary are the ones who almost always give elite performance when it matters.

 

[Pancakes]

Which is why consistent playoff performance is what I'd base signing a goalie on. Elite goalies see their play dip from one regular season to the next, but the ones that are truly worth their salary are the ones who almost always give elite performance when it matters.

Eh, I don't know. I'd be leery of reading too much into playoff results unless there's a consistent pattern one way or the other. Jarry might be a playoff choker, or his results might get better given more time there. And even then that stuff doesn't always last forever. Maf was one of the worst goalies I've ever seen in the playoffs from like 2010-2014ish, but then he righted the ship and was a big part of the next two cups.

I think paying for goaltending is fine but you should never break the bank from it unless you're absolutely sure (ie, have a Shesterkin/Vasi type). The Bob contract was a huge mistake for Florida.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Eh, I don't know. I'd be leery of reading too much into playoff results unless there's a consistent pattern one way or the other. Jarry might be a playoff choker, or his results might get better given more time there. And even then that stuff doesn't always last forever. Maf was one of the worst goalies I've ever seen in the playoffs from like 2010-2014ish, but then he righted the ship and was a big part of the next two cups.

I think paying for goaltending is fine but you should never break the bank from it unless you're absolutely sure (ie, have a Shesterkin/Vasi type). The Bob contract was a huge mistake for Florida.

That's why I said consistent playoff results. I didn't say sign someone who had one solitary strong series.

 

[pistolpete11]

I've already resigned myself to the fact they will give him big money for a long time ($6x6 or something like that). Jarry is the only under-30 starting goalie FA and there's only a couple other ones that are under 35. He's got all the leverage. With the moves they've made to win now, I can't see them taking a risk in goal.

I just hope the NTC isn't too restrictive so they can get out of it in a few years if Lindberg or Blomqvist make the jump.

 

[SEALBound]

Which is why consistent playoff performance is what I'd base signing a goalie on. Elite goalies see their play dip from one regular season to the next, but the ones that are truly worth their salary are the ones who almost always give elite performance when it matters.

And that's Jarry's biggest negative. I'm sure if there are discussions going on right now, the agent is touting all-star game and good RS stats and Hextall is pointing at the playoffs.

Jarry needs to be healthy come April and put on a good show to get the bucks. Otherwise, he may be looking at a short-term bridge but at 27, that's tough to accept. And you know there is some other team out there with shit goaltending that would throw a 6x6 at him just due to FA market woes.

 

[Gurglesons]

I've already resigned myself to the fact they will give him big money for a long time ($6x6 or something like that). Jarry is the only under-30 starting goalie FA and there's only a couple other ones that are under 35. He's got all the leverage. With the moves they've made to win now, I can't see them taking a risk in goal.

I just hope the NTC isn't too restrictive so they can get out of it in a few years if Lindberg or Blomqvist make the jump.

Why do you think this? There was lots of rumors around us trying to do something else in net last time he was signed.