Salary Cap: Pens Salary Cap: Free Agency, everyone panic!!! Geno talk to the Geno thread only please

[Zirakzigil]

Off season time. New thread time apparently cause @Ugene Magic doesn’t like high page counts.

So how about them Malkin and Letang UFAs? Maybe we should sign one or both.

Geno thread. Keep Geno talk here:

Rumor: - Geno where art thou?

With all the Geno rumors and news, time for its own thread. Keep the Geno talk here please.

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[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Call me cynical but I suspect the continued discussion over a backup goaltender may just be more related to the general malaise around this team's moves in general than the backup goaltender himself.

People will get their change. It will just be one big dumb thing as opposed to 3-5 smaller, smarter things.

Because the one big dumb thing is way easier and just requires some halfhearted damage control, marching orders for the local media and perhaps a side of secret gambling addictions and other never-reported bad behavior suddenly coming to light.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

But if you're not getting better and/or you're spending more money, what's the point of doing that?

Change things that need to be changed. Unless you can get Fleury for $2 million, I'm not really seeing the point of changing backup goalies.

Because CDS has injury issues and switching the backup is the least risk possible, I guess? I don't know.

I don't really care either way about CDS or his deal. I just think if they're not even gonna go through the trouble of making a bare minimum swap at backup, they're not gonna go through way more trouble to dump bloated contracts and/or add a significant offensive weapon. And if that's the case, who even f***ing cares anymore? This team's a boring rerun anymore, despite the lip service from the FO about "hoo boy lemme tell ya we're still in the business of gunning for Cups" despite essentially nothing changing for half a decade of 1st round exits.

 

[K Fleur]

I would actually be all for trading Jarry and signing Fleury, for what it's worth. I know for a fact that 93.7 is just mentioning it to get yinzers to listen to the show, but I think that would be an incredibly smart use of assets and I think you'd likely end up better off from the swap.

Jarry is going to jump from $3.5 million this year to $6 million or so on an extension. Fleury would almost definitely cost less to sign as a UFA now, plus you'd likely be getting a 1st+ for Jarry if you traded him. Imagine what someone like Edmonton or Toronto would give up for him.

We instantly hit the 99th percentile of smiles/60

 

[HandshakeLine]

The only "emotion" I've shown here is irritation that you're grasping at shitty arguments to make a "gotcha!" argument at what I'm saying.

Again, the point I've been making the entire time is that all that matters with goalies is their ability to stop pucks, which is directly correlated to their save%. Goalie stats are more clearly indicative of goalie ability than any skater stats are indicative of skater ability. If a goalie is consistently giving you above average results in a role, then he is above average in that role. I don't even see why that's a debatable point.

On your example, the reason I think you're mistaken is that you're looking at it in too small of a sample size. I don't think any specific goal a goalie gives up is indicative of his ability to play a position. Not only because goalies sometimes make bad plays and give up bad goals, but also on the other side: goalies sometimes make insane saves that they have no business of making. The cumulative results when looking at everything should even out those really bad goals and the insane saves he had no business of making.

I forgot how weird you get about goalies, like when you were claiming that the smart move was the team needs to trade Jarry because Murray was your guy.

So, do again tell me how logically this works beyond "this is because I say it is!". How is it clearly indicative if neither SV% nor GAA tell us anything about shot quality, team play, and type of goal? The goalie has one job, sure. But is a deflection off a blind stick poke somehow equal to a shot that is square in the logo? How does it work if the stats do not measure whether or not the goal was scored on a breakaway vs. a power play goal from the point vs a deflection in the crease? What about teams that bleed chances vs teams that play stifling games with little to no chances? Or teams that give up tons of shots (thus driving up SV% but mostly low-percentage chances? How are these borne out in the stats?

I mean, I'm willing to be swayed on CDS being a "1B" or whatever, but could you try to explain the position instead of shrieking about how I'm trying to "get you"?

It is not news that I think goalie stats are dumb, I have been critical of them now for the better part of two decades!

 

[SomeDude]

I would actually be all for trading Jarry and signing Fleury, for what it's worth. I know for a fact that 93.7 is just mentioning it to get yinzers to listen to the show, but I think that would be an incredibly smart use of assets and I think you'd likely end up better off from the swap.

I'm the biggest MAF stan around here and it would be a disaster based on how he looked in the playoffs. I still say do it. Just to watch the meltdown here.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

Sorry, meant the local media and the team itself. There are still plenty of Sully defenders around these parts.

For good reasons. Sullivan is legitimately an elite coach.

The real question is: did he overstay his welcome HERE? Managers, any managers in any industry, have a shelf life. They get promoted, re-assigned or fired at some point. There is a very good reason why some company have a policy to move directors across branches and departments every X years. People are creature of habits and if you want to continue to improve, you need to break out of the bad habits. To be able to do that, you need new eyes/new challenges you will approach with a different perspective. THAT'S the reason why you fire a Sullivan, not because he sucks.

 

[Darren McCord]

Doesn't that reflect more badly on Sullivan than anything else? When DeSmith was used, he was giving really good results. From December onwards, he had a .924 save% in 22 games. Burning Jarry out and causing him to get hurt, while you had a guy who was giving you good results in place of Jarry, seems more like a Sullivan issue than anything.

Your cherry picking stats.

He was horrible in Jan .862 SV% And thats only because he played a trash Det team.

He didnt start to turn a corner until the end of Feb.

 

[HandshakeLine]

A comparative stat using goals saved above expectation, similar to OPS+ in baseball, would work, IMO.

You can adjust for quality of shots, quality of opposition, etc. Determine a baseline. Compare the goalies against the baseline.

That's probably the closest thing to a baseball stat you could get with hockey. There are two possible outcomes on each shot. A goal or no goal. You then account for who is shooting it from what spot on the ice.

It is still a little filmsy, but it is the closest to sabermetrics you can get, IMO.

Agreed, but until we have that, I still think it's best to view goalie stats with a healthy skepticism. They look like they should be more indicative than they are.

 

[Darren McCord]

Calgary have Markstrom, don't they? Why the hell would they do that?

The devils have pick #2

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I want this to happen just to see the reactions of this forum. Please sweet baby Jesus!

Deleted; what did it say?

 

[Empoleon8771]

Your cherry picking stats.

He was horrible in Jan .862 SV% And thats only because he played a trash Det team.

He didnt start to turn a corner until the end of Feb.

You're saying I'm cherrypicking stats and then proceed to cherrypick stats? What?

How can you say that's cherrypicking when you're breaking down stats month by month and looking at sample sizes of like 4 games? I looked at a 22 game sample size from December through April, you're breaking them down into like 4 game sample sizes based on month to say that DeSmith was good/bad in any given month.

 

[SomeDude]

Deleted; what did it say?

Sullivan fired and David Morehouse takes over.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Sullivan fired and David Morehouse takes over.

 

[K Fleur]

Everybody should want their last real memory of MAF’s time here to be his game 7 against Washington.

Reunion would be a disaster.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Deleted; what did it say?

That the team is trying hard to bring back Fleury regardless of the CDS news and that trading Jarry to accommodate it is on the table.

It was pretty clearly the local media tossing bread crumbs at pigeons. This fanbase loses it's shit any time dude is mentioned and all these guys know that.

 

[Darren McCord]

You're saying I'm cherrypicking stats and then proceed to cherrypick stats? What?

How can you say that's cherrypicking when you're breaking down stats month by month and looking at sample sizes of like 4 games?

You said he was great after December which is just wrong. So I only used that small sample to show you. You can say he was really good after Feb sure.

He was terrible in the first half of the season. He was just as bad in the beginning as he was good at the end. Thats what happens when you are a backup. You have hot and cold streaks. Again he is a fine backup but not a 1B.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

Agreed, but until we have that, I still think it's best to view goalie stats with a healthy skepticism. They look like they should be more indicative than they are.

Saves above expected goals exists as a "cumulative" stat as far as I know (how many goals above/under what you should have given up did you end up giving up). I do not know if anyone made a relative one similar to OPS+ though.

I'd love to see it.

 

[Empoleon8771]

You said he was great after December which is just wrong. So I only used that small sample to show you. You can say he was really good after Feb sure.

He was terrible in the first half of the season. He was just as bad in the beginning as he was good at the end. Thats what happens when you are a backup. You have hot and cold streaks. Again he is a fine backup but not a 1B.

No, I said he was great from December onwards, and looked at a 22 game sample size. You breaking down that sample into 4-5 games based on each month is literally the definition of cherrypicking stats, so I have no clue how you can accuse me of cherrypicking stats.

If anything, you should be saying I'm looking at too broad of stats, not that I'm cherrypicking stats.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

The devils have pick #2

True, my bad, I read Flames for whatever reason.

That being said, why would the Devils do that? Is Jarry really an upgrade on Blackwood? From what I have seen, Blackwood is a good young goalie who ran into injury troubles last year.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I'm the biggest MAF stan around here and it would be a disaster based on how he looked in the playoffs. I still say do it. Just to watch the meltdown here.

I think the extra 1st as a trade chip is the real game changer for going with that strategy. I would hope they wouldn't just try to use it like a normal 1st rounder, but I'd hope they would use that 1st to improve the roster.

I don't know whether Fleury would be an upgrade on Jarry or not, but I feel like the return you'd get for Jarry is substantial enough that you can really improve your roster by doing that.

 

[Darren McCord]

No, I said he was great from December onwards, and looked at a 22 game sample size. You breaking down that sample into 4-5 games based on each month is literally the definition of cherrypicking stats, so I have no clue how you can accuse me of cherrypicking stats.

If anything, you should be saying I'm looking at too broad of stats, not that I'm cherrypicking stats.

OK sure but he wasn't great from December on tho? like he was dreadful in January. You cant just say he was great when he was trash for a whole month plus.

You complained Sullivan should have played him more yet he was so bad he couldn't. Like how can you say he was great when he wasn't. If he was great he would have been getting more games in Jan.

Jarry had to come in for a back2back Desmith was so bad.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I don't know that playoff Fleury is an upgrade over playoff Jarry, but Fleury isn't injury prone so you know he'll be good to go. /shrug

Like others have said; I'm in just for the f***ing chaos it'd bring. Yinzers can't help but lose their shit for Fleury, good or bad.

 

[K Fleur]

1st for Ryan Reeves and a 2nd.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Also re: Fleury how did he do the last few playoffs, again?

Not that it matters in Pittsburgh where the whole idea seems to be just to qualify only to get ignobly dunked on for one round before being sent home with their tail between their legs. So hey why not.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

1st for Ryan Reeves and a 2nd.

Now, I am going to DEMAND Hextall be fired.