I must say, something is missing with regards to the reported trade packages that SJ has been allegedly rejecting.
Something is amiss here. As someone already brought up earlier, if Dubas is freely going to be trading away 2024 and 2025 firsts (OK, top-5 protected and conditional second that may become a first, but still), then why was he so keen on keeping No. 14 overall? That does not make a whole lot of sense. Also, IF what Josh Yohe reported is accurate, and SJ rejected a package of Petry, Ty Smith, Poulin, a top-5 protected first-round draft pick in 2024 and a conditional second-round draft pick in 2025 (which can become a first), then let's just collectively wipe our brow and thank the Sharks for not taking that offer!
That deal is awful for the Penguins. Karlsson's contract had what, 30% retention? We still had to do something about Granlund; we still had to do something about DeSmith, and we would have traded four future assets. Horrible deal.
I love Erik Karlsson, and I want him to be patrolling our blueline in 2023-24. But this does not make any sense whatsoever. To me, it is clear as day that Sharks ownership is heavily involved in this deal. So Dubas needs to look to make deals with other teams to try to alleviate some of the contracts that are holding things up with Karlsson. For example, would either Anaheim or Chicago accept the following trade:
To the Ducks and 'Hawks - Casey DeSmith and Jeff Petry
To the Penguins - future considerations
If a deal like that could happen, then you take some of SJ's leverage away. Because then you can take on all of Karlsson's cap hit and reduce the return. You could send them Granlund and Pettersson, for example. That is more appealing to the Sharks. Also, one thing we have not really discussed is moving O'Connor in this trade. I know he could be the key to a buyout, but if we have to take him to arbitration in the first place, then that means he could be wanting more money (more importantly, more of a cap hit) than the team needs to pay at this point. If he is asking for more than Poulin's cap hit, then wouldn't trading O'Connor make more sense? San Jose probably values this player, too. I think O'Connor might be making a mistake here, assuming he likes Pittsburgh and wants to play for the Penguins. Because the best way for him to crack the roster this year is if he was making $775,000. If he takes the Ty Smith deal, he becomes infinitely more valuable to the team, imo. But as it stands right now, he is trade fodder.
So for me, it is better to take on all of Karlsson's cap hit, find a taker for at least Petry or Granlund so as to not be forced to include them in the SJ deal, and make the deal appealing enough that SJ would not want too many future assets. Now, many here have mentioned the depth issue. Some suggest we need to keep as many current assets and trade futures in this deal. I disagree. Dubas has been adding depth, which is why he went over the cap in free agency almost immediately. AND, is it not time for this franchise to see what certain guys can do? Yes, I have suggested trading O'Connor but if he agrees to a cheap deal he is one of those guys who can be a big help on the third line. But he has to come cheaply, or else we should probably give Poulin a look. This same thought works for the blueline, too. Smith and Joseph are cheap NHL players. We NEED those types. Yes, trading someone like Pettersson may hurt initially, but we need to know what we have in Joseph and Smith. And then beyond those two, we have Pickering, Belliveau and Pieniniemi. The LD position is a strength. So for me, moving one of the very few players we have who has trade value and has a contract that is moveable, big enough to be included in a Karlsson deal, appealing to SJ (presumably) and also part of the solution to cap savings for us makes a ton of sense. Everybody here is including Smith and/or Joseph in a Karlsson deal, but for me when you include a Karlsson cap hit (regardless of whether it is in full, 10%, 20% or 30% retention), you need the counter-balance of cheap blueline contracts who can help the team. That last part is important because Chad Ruhwedel does nothing for this team. Joseph and Smith are actually valuable to the Penguins. I would argue even more valuable to the Penguins than being included in this trade.
My last point is about the draft picks. It seems everybody is focusing on the 2024 and 2025 picks. Dubas should be paying it forward, imo. Offer SJ 2026 or 2027 picks. Why? Because the perception around the league is that the Penguins are going to be awful 2-3 years down the line. And for all we know at this time, it may ring true. But we have now kept our first-rounder two years in a row. If Dubas could keep two more firsts, and keep as many picks in each of the next two years as possible, then he might be able to prop up the prospect pool enough to accelerate the post-superstar rebuild. Because if he needs to make a trade for the team's next top dog, he will need prospects to pull it off. Think Jack Eichel. Trading top-5 protected firsts in either '24 or '25 is not good enough, because that does not protect you from being mediocre and losing these valuable picks anyway! And mediocrity is really what kills sports franchises more than anything else.
What is the fear of paying the future assets forward? Crosby retiring? Are we really worried about that? Sid is not going to call it a career before Malkin and Letang. Anything is possible, and never say never, but I just don't see how both 87 and 71 are not around for the duration of Letang's deal. That is the key year for me. That, in my mind, represents the true end of this era. After Letang's deal is done, I suspect the trio might call it quits at the same time. Sure, health will probably determine their end of days in the NHL (as in life). But if any or all are done before Letang's deal expires, then you pivot and deal with it. Otherwise, Dubas should stick to the plan.
Need I remind everyone what that plan is: keep contending and pursuing playoff success, while at the same time building up the future assets so that the post-superstar era can be relative smoother than what we are currently staring at.
If we trade Karlsson for four future assets, then we will fail to do the latter.
. For the Pens, Petry would be the natural cap casualty. A 1st is a given. Smith (or POJ) is redundant. Poulin is nothing. And a 2nd. If the Pens win a Cup in the next 2 years, I'd gladly bump that to a 1st. Buyout Granland, sign DOC for under a $1M, trade CDS, and you have a full roster with over $1M in cap space.
