Salary Cap: Pens Salary and Signing thread: Dr StrangeDubas or How We Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Karlsson Watch

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I wouldn't be surprised if the deal the Sharks backed out on with the Penguins on July 1st had a significant amount of salary retention on Karlsson that San Jose's owners just wouldn't approve of. Now it's just in a holding pattern where both sides are saying "if you want this deal to go down, go find someone else to make the money work out".

If San Jose is only retaining $2 million on Karlsson, I'd expect the deal to look something like:

-Pittsburgh gets Karlsson at $7.5 million
-Team B gets Pittsburgh's 2025 1st while retaining $2 million on Karlsson
-San Jose gets Petry, Smith and a 2024 1st while retaining $2 million on Karlsson

I don't think the Penguins are gonna part with a huge package like two 1st rounders and POJ or Smith. They're not gonna pay that much for a guy who seemingly only wants to be dealt to two places, Pittsburgh or Carolina. The latter doesn't seem to have a ton of serious interest, they're just keeping their hat in the ring in the hopes that things break down between Pittsburgh and San Jose, and they end up having EK fall into their laps for cheap when Grier's out of options. I think it's pretty much either EK stays in SJ while Grier drags things out to be another Chychrun thing, or he's dealt to Pittsburgh this summer for a meh return because Karlsson's got control over his destination.

If I were to throw out a prediction, assuming the hypothetical that an EK trade happens and he ends up in Pittsburgh, Dubas probably parts with something like a lotto-protected 1st in 2024, POJ/Smith, and like a 3rd in 2024. In another deal, they find a place Petry will accept a trade to. They'll also use the second buyout window from DOC's arbitration on Granlund, and send CDS out to make all the money work. Then Dubas looks around to see if he can find a better 3C option with what cap space he's got left.

That's just what I think it'll play out like, anyway.

 

[K Fleur]

I thought it might be confusing having 2 Smith’s on the team but it’s actually not. The only one people talk about is the one that doesn’t play.

 

[Jacob]

I thought it might be confusing having 2 Smith’s on the team but it’s actually not. The only one people talk about is the one that doesn’t play.

I hate seeing first initials on jerseys.

 

[Nakawick]

I hate seeing first initials on jerseys.

Ty Smith could have his full name on the back.

 

[Pancakes]

I don't think Dubas would pay two first rounders for EK either if only because the Penguins are pretty firmly set on contending while rebuilding. They can't do the rebuilding part if they trade away multiple firsts.

I think Dubas would move at most one first and one of Poulin/Pickering or POJ/Smith for EK. I'm honestly not even sure he'd move that much.

San Jose fans may balk but if EK is moved to us I don't foresee Dubas paying a huge haul for him. The Pens just don't have the willingness to completely empty their farm of what little talent it has.

My prediction is that Dubas moves a lottery protected first and one of POJ/Smith for EK. Possibly a 2025 2nd as well. But no more than that imo.

 

[Andy99]

My prediction is that Sharks and Penguins aren’t a match— one eats the other— and that EK is not traded here

 

[K Fleur]

I hate seeing first initials on jerseys.

Well you won’t have too!

Reilly probably plays like 40 games cause, you know, Penguins injury shit. Probably gets leprosy or some shit. Ty plays like 3 games cause, you know, Sullivan plus he’s not very good.

 

[Pancakes]

I do think this ultimately gets done before the season starts. Nobody will have the cap to take on EK mid season so if San Jose doesn't get this done now then they're essentially punting this trade to the next off season where he'll be older and have less value.

 

[K Fleur]

I do think this ultimately gets done before the season starts. Nobody will have the cap to take on EK mid season so if San Jose doesn't get this done now then they're essentially punting this trade to the next off season where he'll be older and have less value.

I do think ultimately waffles are better than pancakes. Though pancakes have French toast comfortably beat.

 

[Gurglesons]

My prediction is that Sharks and Penguins aren’t a match— one eats the other— and that EK is not traded here

Sharks eating Penguins art was really popular in San Jose in 2016. That didn’t really work out for them eh?

 

[Turin]

My prediction is that Sharks and Penguins aren’t a match— one eats the other— and that EK is not traded here

It’s getting done, sharks don’t live in Antarctica where the Real Penguins live.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

If two 1sts and POJ or Smith (plus?) is what it takes to get the EK deal done, I hope Dubas just moves on. I like EK, I want him here because he makes this team more entertaining to watch. I don't think he vaults this team from perennial 1st round exit/borderline WC team to a legit contender though. f*** spending that much. Grier can keep him and wait like a year to find a deal before ultimately settling for less than he wants.

 

[ChaosAgent]

My prediction is that Sharks and Penguins aren’t a match— one eats the other— and that EK is not traded here

The biggest issue is that we have no overpaid player that is actually worth a substantial amount.
Except Rust who they aren't even entertaining moving with his NMC.

SJS I'm sure is looking for a good/name player who just happens to be overpaid and has 1-2 years left on his deal. Something they could flip for a first with or without retention - and where they wouldn't have to retain for 4-5 years. Then they are looking for a 1st and a prospect on top of that. If Carolina is willing to move Pesce, 1st, Prospect that fits the bill. The Penguins don't actually have that player aside from Bryan Rust, maybe, and it would be beyond stupid to trade a 2025 1st that could be top 5. Petry could net a 2nd-3rd with retention depending on how he does this year but then SJS will have used up all their retention slots.

We've also seen teams do crazy stuff with LTIR leading up to the deadline and the cap is supposedly going up. I think SJS holds onto him and rolls the dice.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I don't see why Dubas wouldn't trade 2 1sts for Karlsson. Yes, he's trying to rebuild the system but he also loves Karlsson from everything we've heard. There's no reason to think that Dubas can't try to recover some of those picks, he did that last year when he traded Sandin for a 1st at the deadline.

Whether the Penguins trade 1 1st or 2 1sts for Karlsson isn't going to tangibly impact their rebuild in the future. The team is still going to need to bottom out to get the high picks needed to draft the next core.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I don't see why Dubas wouldn't trade 2 1sts for Karlsson. Yes, he's trying to rebuild the system but he also loves Karlsson from everything we've heard. There's no reason to think that Dubas can't try to recover some of those picks, he did that last year when he traded Sandin for a 1st at the deadline.

Whether the Penguins trade 1 1st or 2 1sts for Karlsson isn't going to tangibly impact their rebuild in the future. The team is still going to need to bottom out to get the high picks needed to draft the next core.

Our 2025 onwards firsts could be top 5. They are probably the most valuable trade asset this organization has except Crosby. You cannot trade those for anyone on the wrong side of 25, let alone 33.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Our 2025 onwards firsts could be top 5. They are probably the most valuable trade asset this organization has except Crosby. You cannot trade those for anyone on the wrong side of 25, let alone 33.

Based on what?

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I think SJ is looking for a situation where they don't have to go over the 25-30% retained mark, and they get a good amount of futures back in any Karlsson deal. I don't think Pittsburgh or Carolina are gonna bend and over-extend their offers in order to get the deal finalized. I don't think Carolina's as keenly interested in Karlsson, they're just one of two potential destinations--as of now. Pittsburgh seems more serious about trying to get the dude, but I think Dubas has put his offer out there and it's up to Grier whether he wants to accept it or not, I don't think it'll be amended/added to.

Karlsson's very good offensively, and he's very fun to watch, but I don't think he's what Carolina or Pittsburgh *need* really. He's just adding to a pile of blueline riches in Carolina, while he's just adding entertainment value and not really moving the needle enough to make Pittsburgh any sort of legit contender, imo.

Grier can sit on his asset if he wants, and he very well might. He has no imminent need to trade Karlsson. If a deal gets done this summer, I think it's because Grier relents and accepts what Dubas has offered. I don't think Carolina's a realistic destination unless Pittsburgh walks away and Grier decides he has to get something instead of risk Karlsson's game dropping off badly, or an injury.

Whatever happens, I'm annoyed it's taken so long. This shit's stupid.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Based on what?

Sid's current deal is up after the 2024-25 season, and they've been on a steady decline since 2018 with a roster pockmarked with 36 year olds, no prospects on the horizon, and no supporting cast to pick up the slack and create/produce on their own. /shrug

I'm not saying they're definitely gonna be top-5 picks in the 2025 draft and onward, but the bottom's gonna fall outta this thing sooner than later. Especially if Sid looks at the state of the team in two years and decides it's not worth the 8+ months of punishment every season to his body to keep playing for another couple of years.

 

[Pancakes]

I don't see why Dubas wouldn't trade 2 1sts for Karlsson. Yes, he's trying to rebuild the system but he also loves Karlsson from everything we've heard. There's no reason to think that Dubas can't try to recover some of those picks, he did that last year when he traded Sandin for a 1st at the deadline.

Whether the Penguins trade 1 1st or 2 1sts for Karlsson isn't going to tangibly impact their rebuild in the future. The team is still going to need to bottom out to get the high picks needed to draft the next core.

I suppose so. It just seems contrary to his goals. If he's willing to move firsts, why didn't he move the 14th overall? Yager is a pretty whatever prospect. He's fine, but he's not likely to be a star.

I do think ultimately waffles are better than pancakes. Though pancakes have French toast comfortably beat.

I miss arguing with Kirk about that.

Pancakes are superior, but I do enjoy waffles as well. French toast is an if I'm in the mood for it thing.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Based on what?

2021: 77 Points in 56 Games. 1.36/Game. Goal Diff: +38 (+.68/Game)
2021-2022: 103 Points in 82 Games. 1.26/Game. Goal Diff: +47 (+.57/Game)
2022-2023: 91 Points in 82 games. 1.11/Game. Goal Diff: -2 (0/game)

Extrapolate this 2 years and you're looking at .9-1 points per game. Maybe 80 points. The Caps just drafted 8th. Would any fan have said the Caps would have drafted 8th in 2023 back in 2021?

Take out the homerism and the most likely course is this thing crashes and burns pretty soon. I can't imagine Dubas has free license to trade 1sts when the crash & burn is in play.


Besides, if we are moving 2 1sts there are other players we could target who are not Erik Karlsson.
Edit: like, sh1t, get Arizona on the phone ASAP or start talking to Toronto about Guentzel + for Nylander.

 

[Empoleon8771]

2021: 77 Points in 56 Games. 1.36/Game. Goal Diff: +38 (+.68/Game)
2021-2022: 103 Points in 82 Games. 1.26/Game. Goal Diff: +47 (+.57/Game)
2022-2023: 91 Points in 82 games. 1.11/Game. Goal Diff: -2 (0/game)

Extrapolate this 2 years and you're looking at .9-1 points per game. Maybe 80 points. The Caps just drafted 8th. Would any fan have said the Caps would have drafted 8th in 2023 back in 2021?

Take out the homerism and the most likely course is this thing crashes and burns pretty soon. I can't imagine Dubas has free license to trade 1sts when the crash & burn is in play.


Besides, if we are moving 2 1sts there are other players we could target who are not Erik Karlsson.

That's not how team aging works.

There is nothing to support the idea that this team will be a bottom-5 team in the NHL next year. That's not being a "homer", that's being realistic.

 

[Peat]

Our 2025 onwards firsts could be top 5. They are probably the most valuable trade asset this organization has except Crosby. You cannot trade those for anyone on the wrong side of 25, let alone 33.

If we bottom out that quick we'll be collecting a ton more of them. As long as there's lottery protection on the pick, we don't lose anything we can't get back.

Besides, if we are moving 2 1sts there are other players we could target who are not Erik Karlsson.

Yeah, but who's better who's available?

 

[ChaosAgent]

That's not how team aging works.

There is nothing to support the idea that this team will be a bottom-5 team in the NHL next year. That's not being a "homer", that's being realistic.

No teams think they are going to suck in 2 years, but the nature of sports is that some have to.
With each year that passes it becomes more likely that the Penguins will be among them.

The 2024 and 2025 1sts is a huge overpayment for Karlsson unless they are taking Granlund and retaining 50% on EK.
Again, there are other players if you're really putting that 2025 1st in play. Ones who aren't old.

 

[Gurglesons]

I think I could see us moving 2 1sts but largely based on conditional values.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Yeah, but who's better who's available?

Call up Arizona about Cooley or Keller.

We don't even know if Karlsson is a net positive player. He just could have some wildly great right tail outcomes and it would be fun.