Salary Cap: Pens '23-'24 Salary Cap Thread: "Mandrake, do you recall what Clemenceau once said about hockey"

[Big Friggin Dummy]

But nothing you get in return is going to help us anytime soon.

I think once a team in the Pens' position trades Jake, they're no longer concerned with the now, or soon. /shrug

 

[HandshakeLine]

No they don’t. Teams do not consistently draft 40 goal scorer’s late in the 1st and certainly not in the 3rd round. In fact their chances of becoming NHL players aren’t great.

I didn't say any one team did, I said "people did". Nor did I say a late firsts will always be 40 G scorers, but they are relatively common, not some black swan event. Kucherov (58th OA), Pasternak (25 OA), Thompson (26 OA), Roberts (39 OA), Point (79 OA), Kaprizov (135 OA) are all very recent. You might have heard of some of them, I hear they're quite popular.

My broader point is, acting like a 40 G scorer is impossible to find in the late first is just absurd, considering Jake was a 3rd round pick. You just have to get lucky and scout/draft players that have 40 goal potential, not 2 way defensive NCAA star of the year and perennial 5 goal scorers.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Also, on a related note, had any other team drafted Jake, I doubt he becomes a 40 goal scorer unless it was the Oil. This isn't a knock on Jake, it's just pointing out that team fit matters for these kinds of things. Some of those 40 G guys definitely benefitted from weak teams where they could shine or having great linemates, in fact, almost all of them did, that's why they weren't 1-4 OA kinds of draft picks.

I do agree that drafting a Jake replacement now is kind of silly though, simply because our window is literally next season and that's it. And maybe not even that. You should be drafting either for a player that has potential to explode, or a moveable asset for the rebuild.

 

[HandshakeLine]

I think once a team in the Pens' position trades Jake, they're no longer concerned with the now, or soon. /shrug

I think there's a long shot chance that shaking up that top 6 with a Jake trade could bring us back into possible playoff standing next year, but it's a looooooong shot. But so is making the playoffs at the moment, so if I'm running the odds, I'd probably give it a go and then tender an offer in the postseason if he makes it to UFA.

That said, I think any move is pretty much a huge gamble at this point, so I'd probably go for the highest potential reward even if it's unlikely.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I think there's a long shot chance that shaking up that top 6 with a Jake trade could bring us back into possible playoff standing next year, but it's a looooooong shot. But so is making the playoffs at the moment, so if I'm running the odds, I'd probably give it a go and then tender an offer in the postseason if he makes it to UFA.

That said, I think any move is pretty much a huge gamble at this point, so I'd probably go for the highest potential reward even if it's unlikely.

Yeah, I mean, nothing's impossible, but in reality? The time for this team to pull up on the controls and try to salvage one more genuine run outta the Sid/Geno era was literally years ago. They're beyond the event horizon now regardless of what they do imo. Particularly with Sullivan coaching.

You're not gonna get a franchise pillar or building block for the next chapter, but you might get yourself a couple of good supporting cast pieces to surround those franchise cornerstones this team's gonna be picking sooner than later.

I just don't see any way keeping Jake through the TDL makes sense, aside from the "keep Sid happy" angle. At best, you're keeping things the same as they've been for this boring, ever-worsening, slopshit hockey club. At worst, you're missing out on selling high on a very valuable asset right before the wheels really come off this wagon. Either Jake walks in FA, or he's kept at 150% his current cost, and you're only getting a guy who is gonna be increasingly difficult to move with his shiny new NMC and his stats start to drop off (and plummet once Sid retires).

I dunno, but it seems asinine to me to keep Jake through the TDL with where this team's at in the standings, where they're at in the lifespan of the era, and how valuable he is. Like you said, they can always move him for a haul and throw a "Hey, if you wanna come bro out with Sid until he retires" contract at him this summer. But I think if he hits FA, or is dealt, he's gone for good.

 

[HandshakeLine]

On the otherhand, refusing to take a chance at finding a 40G scorer because "we have Jake" is precisely what got us into this mess in the first place. We do decent at getting workable NHL players, we just haven't found anything spectacular since Jake, really. That was probably the biggest dagger in the side of the era, tbh.

But good thing we drafted all of those turds.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Yeah, the stagnation of the prospect pipeline (whether bad drafting, bad development, or both) the last, what, 8 (?) years or so is pretty killer. Having fresh legs and hunger, on ELCs, is pretty crucial to a team as old as this one trying to stay in the conversation. It's one thing to sling around 1st round picks with reckless abandon in a go all-in approach. It's another to do that while targeting middle-6/3rd line talent like Zucker, Brassard and Kapanen.

Anyway, nuke the coaching staff and continue to overhaul the scouting depts--pro and amateur--this summer. Regardless of whether the team makes the playoffs or not.

 

[HandshakeLine]

I mean, you have to imagine the fact that Rust and Jake are homegrown draft picks done good is responsible for them sticking around way past the point it would make sense to move them (even on a contender). Rust should have been moved last year, if not earlier. Jake is most probably going to stick around for exactly the same reason.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

Crosby and Malkin will still be here after the trade deadline, and so will Karlsson and Letang. Even with Jake Guentzel, we need players who can accept those passes from our legends and deposit the biscuit in the back of the net. Often.

So forget Lord Stanley. Dubas must focus on reworking this roster and making it vastly younger with more scoring upside, while maintaining an eye toward making the playoffs during the legends' twilight years. Sure, not an easy task. But the task has been the same since the day he was hired, so he knew what he was getting himself into.

Nobody acquired at this trade deadline (and beyond) should be older than the guy traded. Furthermore, nobody acquired should be older than Guentzel. The only veterans added should either be 1) on an expiring contract, 2) still a useful veteran who can actually help this team, but even if that is the case he must, 3) also come with a future asset or two in that deal.

For example, if the Oilers want to dump Evander Kane in a Guentzel trade, that would be acceptable (especially because a guy with size and scoring ability is exactly what we need more of). Dubas should focus on trading Reilly Smith, Lars Eller, Alex Nedeljkovic and Chad Ruhwedel. I doubt anybody else has value (that we want to trade), and of course one way or another we need resolution to the Guentzel situation. Keep him or get four assets for him. What is hilarious to me is that the only other player that could actually net a young asset at this time is maybe Jeff Carter. His role as a fourth-line winger has been better than expected. I could see a team on the brink of winning it all having interest. Of course, he would have to waive his clause. <<smh>>

Any other deal that Dubas has in mind would be a hockey trade, which I am not opposed to. However, getting older players by trading younger ones (is that even possible with this roster???) is no bueno.

I mean, you have to imagine the fact that Rust and Jake are homegrown draft picks done good is responsible for them sticking around way past the point it would make sense to move them (even on a contender). Rust should have been moved last year, if not earlier. Jake is most probably going to stick around for exactly the same reason.

Yeah I agree. But with Jake, at least you can justify keeping him. He is younger and one of the best players at his position in the NHL. Rust was never anything close to that. Rust is a "systems" winger who would have generated interest throughout the league BEFORE Hextall gave him a full NMC. Now, we are stuck with him.

 

[Jacob]

I think once a team in the Pens' position trades Jake, they're no longer concerned with the now, or soon. /shrug

I agree, but then we shouldn’t stop at just Guentzel. That’s not a rebuild.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I agree, but then we shouldn’t stop at just Guentzel. That’s not a rebuild.

Agree. Jake is just first in line because of his expiring contract and lack of a NMC/NTC at the moment.

 

[Andy99]

Since the Wings won, the WC2 line is now 59 points with Tampa and we’re 6 points out of the POs and third place in the Metro is 60 points…so please tell me who on here thinks we’re going to make up those points, even with a couple games in hand? Also the Isles lost at least but Caps are leading…

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Pens are 23-18-7 through 48 this season. They were 24-15-9 through 48 last year.

Make or miss, the team's been dead in the water for years because of JR, Hextall and Sullivan. It'll come down to the wire and they'll just barely miss, or just barely eek in, cuz that's the worst outcome. It'll keep them close enough to not sell, which they should be.

 

[The Old Master]

Since the Wings won, the WC2 line is now 59 points with Tampa and we’re 6 points out of the POs and third place in the Metro is 60 points…so please tell me who on here thinks we’re going to make up those points, even with a couple games in hand? Also the Isles lost at least but Caps are leading…

with or without a coaching change?

 

[Randy Butternubs]

Pens pretty much have to win the rest of their games this month for me to be "okay" with holding on to Guentzel.

 

[Andy99]

with or without a coaching change?

Is a coaching change anywhere in sight? Would have happened by now if Dubas wanted it to…but no, our stale coach has a 3-year extension forthcoming lol

 

[Josey Wales]

Is a coaching change anywhere in sight? Would have happened by now if Dubas wanted it to…but no, our stale coach has a 3-year extension forthcoming lol

UMMMMMM Genius, It also is "The Core" & more specifically Sid

 

[Andy99]

Pens pretty much have to win the rest of their games this month for me to be "okay" with holding on to Guentzel.

There’s 13 games before the TDL…at minimum I’d think we have to win 9 out of those 13…that’s a .690 winning %…obvious depends what other teams do ahead of us but those 13 games include Flyers, isles and Caps right before the deadline, which count for a little more…I think we should get close to the POs if only 1-2 points out if we do that…do I think we can do that? Hell no, we haven’t had .690 % stretches all season lol

 

[pistolpete11]

There’s 13 games before the TDL…at minimum I’d think we have to win 9 out of those 13…that’s a .690 winning %…obvious depends what other teams do ahead of us but those 13 games include Flyers, isles and Caps right before the deadline, which count for a little more…I think we should get close to the POs if only 1-2 points out if we do that…do I think we can do that? Hell no, we haven’t had .690 % stretches all season lol

Between December 12 and January 8 they had a record of 9-3-1.

I'm not betting on it, but they've done it before.

 

[Andy99]

Between December 12 and January 8 they had a record of 9-3-1.

I'm not betting on it, but they've done it before.

Yeah, I guess they did have a 4 week stretch there… I didn’t think it was that good but theyve clearly not sustained it

 

[eXile3]

I didn't say any one team did, I said "people did". Nor did I say a late firsts will always be 40 G scorers, but they are relatively common, not some black swan event. Kucherov (58th OA), Pasternak (25 OA), Thompson (26 OA), Roberts (39 OA), Point (79 OA), Kaprizov (135 OA) are all very recent. You might have heard of some of them, I hear they're quite popular.

My broader point is, acting like a 40 G scorer is impossible to find in the late first is just absurd, considering Jake was a 3rd round pick. You just have to get lucky and scout/draft players that have 40 goal potential, not 2 way defensive NCAA star of the year and perennial 5 goal scorers.

They are not relatively common. Take those players and then take every other player that wasn’t a 40 goal scorer, picked in a similar range, over the same time period. Then divide them. I’m willing to bet that % is going to be pretty low.

Those players are outliers, not the common. You’re mistaking possibilities for probabilities. Yes, you can get a Pasta, but it’s more like you get a Poehling.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

I don't even consider people who wanna keep up this bubble purgatory to be Penguins fans. Those are Core-3 fans.

Actual Pittsburgh Penguins fans want the team to win championships. And we all know you're not gonna accomplish that this way.

 

[Sideline]

I don't even consider people who wanna keep up this bubble purgatory to be Penguins fans. Those are Core-3 fans.

Actual Pittsburgh Penguins fans want the team to win championships. And we all know you're not gonna accomplish that this way.

I think this team is a piece or two away from being solidly in the playoffs. If you shuffle the deck a little bit in the summer with Carter, Rakell, Smith and getting a little more out of the bottom six I think this team is no worse than any the second tier contenders that could get hot and go on a run.

 

[Josey Wales]

I think this team is a piece or two away from being solidly in the playoffs. If you shuffle the deck a little bit in the summer with Carter, Rakell, Smith and getting a little more out of the bottom six I think this team is no worse than any the second tier contenders that could get hot and go on a run.

Yeah now try to get those 2 "Pieces" with all the NTC's & NMC's

 

[wej20]

I think this team is a piece or two away from being solidly in the playoffs. If you shuffle the deck a little bit in the summer with Carter, Rakell, Smith and getting a little more out of the bottom six I think this team is no worse than any the second tier contenders that could get hot and go on a run.

While on paper Smith trade looked good (getting a 25 goal 50 point winger for a 3rd for 2 years at a reasonable caphit), he's far too similar to Rakell and Rust (softish 2nd line wingers who are decent offensively but don't bring anything extra to the table).