Salary Cap: Pens 2024 Summer Thread: "Thus, knocking us out of these superior numbers when we emerge! Mr. President, we must not allow a non-playoff bound gap!"

[Empoleon8771]

Yeah like if the Penguins would have gotten Bunting, Morrow and Carolina's 1st for Guentzel, I think most Penguins fans would be extremely satisfied/happy with that. I just don't view the difference between that and what they got as large enough to make a big deal out of what they got for Guentzel.

Unless they were getting Nikishin, which they obviously weren't going to get, any prospect they'd get in those deals would come with red flags. Even the "top end" prospects in Carolina's system has some glaring flaws that could prevent them from being effective NHLers in the long run. Morrow has defensive issues and Nadeau and Blake are ridiculously small (like 160 lbs or less ridiculously small), all 3 of those guys could bust due to that.

Yamamoto is a great example of a guy taken in the late 1st round that ended up not coming even close to expectations due to his ridiculously small size.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Lots of 1st round guys bust, but also, lots don't. I think a bigger issue than even the Guentzel trade is just the amount wasting of dumb assets this team has done over the years. The Jake trade is whatever, but trading for depth defensemen, energy guys we don't use, PP specialists that we use as PK killers is the bigger cause. It's not even that we shouldn't have made trades, just that the trades and assets we spent made no sense.

With smarter asset management, we would be looking at a more fully-stocked cupboard and something like the Jake trade as is would have been executed from a better position.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I'm also just not that worked about it one way or the other because despite me being very grateful for all he's done here... I've just never seen Jake as this be-all end-all piece. This idea some had of Jake Guentzel taking over as the like... tentpole player on this team is kinda hilarious to me. He's not that guy. He's never been that guy.

And clearly after the team got over it's little baby tantrum they found out pretty fast that they looked just fine without him. Hell maybe better.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I'm also just not that worked about it one way or the other because despite me being very grateful for all he's done here... I've just never seen Jake as this be-all end-all piece. This idea some had of Jake Guentzel taking over as the like... tentpole player on this team is kinda hilarious to me. He's not that guy. He's never been that guy.

And clearly after the team got over it's little baby tantrum they found out pretty fast that they looked just fine without him. Hell maybe better.

The best thing learned from that trade is that Crosby doesn't need Guentzel on his line to be effective and they absolutely shouldn't pay Guentzel a ton of money to be that.

 

[HandshakeLine]

I guess I just feel hard to be super positive about trading Jake for a Finnish question mark, a player that's going to be horribly misused here, a bottom 6er who won't get a fair shake to stick, the rights to a nobody, a 2nd, and a 5th.

Like it's not the worst return in the world, but none of that matters because the team is f***ed from the inside out.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

The best thing learned from that trade is that Crosby doesn't need Guentzel on his line to be effective and they absolutely shouldn't pay Guentzel a ton of money to be that.

It's good to know that for sure. But very common sense things could have been done a LONG time ago to come to the same conclusion while improving the whole lineup. It's a good thing this team has such a legendary coach that he knew better.

That was such a frustration of mine. I'm just some guy but I knew damned well years ago Sid flippin' Crosby would be just fine without the legendary Jake Guentzel.

It seriously almost like the team was afraid to confirm that.

 

[HandshakeLine]

The best thing learned from that trade is that Crosby doesn't need Guentzel on his line to be effective and they absolutely shouldn't pay Guentzel a ton of money to be that.

They should have learned that in 2019.

 

[SEALBound]

He is the only true constant with the team, so that's where a lot of the attention should be. But I also think that the team hasn't really been hiring good scouts for a bit and we don't seem to be developing players in WB/S as effectively as we could be.

Time will tell to see if Hextall or Dubas' changes there bear any fruit, but right now, given how Dubas treats other aspects of the organization, I'm skeptical.

I hate to even ask the question - what makes a good scout? And then - how do you find good scouts? I think there comes a point when there's probably not THAT much of a difference between scouts abilities to evaluate players and when you combined that with the draft being sort of a crapshoot, I think it makes it tough. Think about this, 30 team's scouts missed on Panarin in the KHL. And I go back to that sort of thing when I look at past draft "misses". I see something like Kapanen being taken at 22 and Pastrnak being taken at 25 and I think "oh man! Guys, what happened!" But then I remember that 24 other teams missed on that too

One thing I would like to see, and I say it every year, is that WBS should be providing the #12 forward on a nightly basis. At the very least, the 4th line wing or center should be a rotating gig between AHL players. Hino, Zohorna, White, Puustinen, Poulin, Gruden, etc all should have been rotating the entire year or until you truly find a guy that is working out. That rewards the WBS guys for hard work and it helps our development process.

Yeah like if the Penguins would have gotten Bunting, Morrow and Carolina's 1st for Guentzel, I think most Penguins fans would be extremely satisfied/happy with that. I just don't view the difference between that and what they got as large enough to make a big deal out of what they got for Guentzel.

Unless they were getting Nikishin, which they obviously weren't going to get, any prospect they'd get in those deals would come with red flags. Even the "top end" prospects in Carolina's system has some glaring flaws that could prevent them from being effective NHLers in the long run. Morrow has defensive issues and Nadeau and Blake are ridiculously small (like 160 lbs or less ridiculously small), all 3 of those guys could bust due to that.

Yamamoto is a great example of a guy taken in the late 1st round that ended up not coming even close to expectations due to his ridiculously small size.

I think that's fair. Even I can go back and admit that I would have preferred that return to the one we got but I agree with you in that, I'm not so down on the return that we got compared to that, that I'm willing to call the trade a failure.

 

[HandshakeLine]

I hate to even ask the question - what makes a good scout? And then - how do you find good scouts? I think there comes a point when there's probably not THAT much of a difference between scouts abilities to evaluate players and when you combined that with the draft being sort of a crapshoot, I think it makes it tough. Think about this, 30 team's scouts missed on Panarin in the KHL. And I go back to that sort of thing when I look at past draft "misses". I see something like Kapanen being taken at 22 and Pastrnak being taken at 25 and I think "oh man! Guys, what happened!" But then I remember that 24 other teams missed on that too

But scouting is also about amateur and pro scouting to me. The draft is important, sure, and the odds of hitting are low. It would be nice if we found some gems. Hell, it would be nice if we found anything on a regular basis.

But more worrying to me is when we keep having busts on our trades and UFA signings. Part of that is coaching, we both agree there, but part of that is also just the fact that we're wasting assets on guys we never use or don't use well or have to turn around and bail on. I would normally blame it on the GM, but the team also seems like it's never prepared and never has the read on any opponent which falls under the whole pro-scouting thing to me.

 

[SEALBound]

But scouting is also about amateur and pro scouting to me. The draft is important, sure, and the odds of hitting are low. It would be nice if we found some gems. Hell, it would be nice if we found anything on a regular basis.

But more worrying to me is when we keep having busts on our trades and UFA signings. Part of that is coaching, we both agree there, but part of that is also just the fact that we're wasting assets on guys we never use or don't use well or have to turn around and bail on. I would normally blame it on the GM, but the team also seems like it's never prepared and never has the read on any opponent which falls under the whole pro-scouting thing to me.

I'd love to be a fly on the wall when it comes to discussing trade targets or potential draftees. Maybe I'm way overthinking the level of detail they "should" be going into, but it's entirely possible that it's more like, "Hey, Ryan Graves is a big dman who might work with Letang. What he making now? Heck, we could offer him $4.5mil. What's everyone think? Good? Good, we'll call his agent's first thing FA day." I remember being underwhelmed by the Seguin trade discussions video.

That said, I do remember at the start of the 2018-2019 season when we had Brassard, JR or Sullivan talked about how they looked at past footage of Brassard to see what type of linemates worked well for him and they tried to mimic that in Pittsburgh. It's why he got Simon and Rust to start. I just wish there was more of a sense that was happening on a larger, widespread scale because, as is, it's not. Or at least, it would APPEAR that it's not. Everything seems VERY reactionary and "well...just try this and we'll see how it goes".

 

[KrisLetAngry]

What's with this forum only being able to understand things from one lockstep perspective or another?

The take here is that you hope for the best with picks in that range and so far they are looking good or even outproducing expectations but you also keep the odds firmly in mind and remember that guys like Erik Christensen and many, many others put up monster numbers at lower levels and turned into well... not much. Hell if anything EC outperformed his draft status. This isn't the NFL. 2nd rounders and below are typically flotsam and jetsam.

I don't really have a strong opinion on the trade itself. I just know that Jake had to go, something is better than nothing and I'm pulling hard for the guys they did get. But my gut and experience tells me that quality is always better than quantity and that players like Bunting on this team usually turn into pumpkins. So... you know... a little nuance? Though of course I realize... certain posters... went full hog with the "GIANT HAUL" stuff and have to keep up appearances, now. So hey... ya'll do you.

All that said I feel like the Penguins are due for some post-first-round rabbits pulled out of their hat since it's been a while. And all the better that another team drafted these as opposed to Penguins scouts who at this point I have little to no faith in.

I kinda like it. Hope 1 player makes it next year on the roster versus waiting 5 years.

I agree our scouting has been horrible.

It is hard to have a good prospect pool when you do so little drafting. We are undoubtedly in the bottom five in terms of "number of picks in the last 15 years," but I agree that it's an organizational failure. It's the double-edged sword that continues to cut both ways from the Mike Sullivan hiring. While the initial infusion of youth and two cups were great, we do seem to be finding ourselves with quite a few players in the system that don't scream "Mike Sullivan hockey". And when they do, they are not impact players.

Legare might be a good example of "scouting failures". He's a wing we traded up to get. He had a good shot, yes, but there was always a knock on his skating ability. Now why would they draft a guy with skating issues when your NHL team runs a system that relies on skating ability and speed on the wings?

On the other hand, you then get a guy like Hallander who, on paper, has all of the attributes that you would generally look for - speed, willingness to go to the net, could PK, plays center and can take faceoffs...and he gets 3 games.

Then you have to listen to Sullivan say in post-games "well we have who have, who else are we gonna get?"

Yea amateur scouting needs to better and someone needs to tell Sullivan off or better yet fire his ass.

 

[Gurglesons]

I think the basis of the disagreement here is how much "quantity versus quality" the Penguins actually got. Using the 1st rounder as an example, is there really much of a decline in quality for pick #27 versus pick #44 and Ponomarev? I don't really think so.

Just looking at a few drafts, for guys taken in 23-30 versus guys taken in the 43-50 range:

• 2015: Boeser, Konecny, Roslovic and Beauvillier in 23-30 range, Cernak, Sprong, Hintz and Greenway in the 43-50 range
• 2016: Jones, Thompson, Howden, Frederic and Steel in 23-30 range, Girard, Hart and Lindgren in the 43-50 range
• 2017: POJ, Poehling, Oettinger, Frost, Jokiharju and Tolvanen in 23-30 range, Texier, Formenton, Ferraro and Comtois in 43-50 range
• 2018: Lundestrom, Lundkvist, Sandin and Veleno in 23-30, Peruvonich, Fehervary and Marchenko in 43-50 range

I think the upsides are higher with the late 1sts rather than the mid 2nds, but the likelihood is about the same and the most common levels are about the same.

Just as a super rough estimate, these drafts suggest you'll be getting this out of a late 1st:

-50% chance of a non-NHL regular
-35% chance of a middling NHL regular
-15% chance of a great NHL regular

While you're looking at something like this with a mid 2nd rounder:

-55% chance of a non-NHL regular
-35% chance of a middling NHL regular
-10% chance of a great NHL regular

It doesn't seem to be all that different, outside of the "great" NHLers in the late 1st round generally being better than the "great" NHLers in the mid 2nd round.

I think we are conceptually arguing difference things here.

To me the idea here is to acquire the 1st as a trade asset. What we acquired in my mind has little value.

I agree with the overall concept that a 27th overall pick and a 44th overall pick have little difference when it comes to the potential player.

I guess I just feel hard to be super positive about trading Jake for a Finnish question mark, a player that's going to be horribly misused here, a bottom 6er who won't get a fair shake to stick, the rights to a nobody, a 2nd, and a 5th.

Like it's not the worst return in the world, but none of that matters because the team is f***ed from the inside out.

My biggest issue is that it's the same mindset that people crucified Hextall for.

There is no plan with regards to that trade. You say its for the now and for the future. If its for the now then keep Jake. He's obviously adamant that no conversations would be had with him.

If it is for the future, then target meaningful future assets.

Instead it's a hodge podge of mediocre skaters that could potentially fill middle six roles. Mostly wingers. Those are the easiest assets to grab.

Claude Giroux returned a 1st and Tippett. How we getting less value for a prime Jake who we could move anywhere than Giroux forcing his way to Florida?

 

[Ryder71]

I guess I just feel hard to be super positive about trading Jake for a Finnish question mark, a player that's going to be horribly misused here, a bottom 6er who won't get a fair shake to stick, the rights to a nobody, a 2nd, and a 5th.

Like it's not the worst return in the world, but none of that matters because the team is f***ed from the inside out.

Then give up and find another team.

 

[Gurglesons]

Then give up and find another team.

 

[Ryder71]

I think we are conceptually arguing difference things here.

To me the idea here is to acquire the 1st as a trade asset. What we acquired in my mind has little value.

I agree with the overall concept that a 27th overall pick and a 44th overall pick have little difference when it comes to the potential player.



My biggest issue is that it's the same mindset that people crucified Hextall for.

There is no plan with regards to that trade. You say its for the now and for the future. If its for the now then keep Jake. He's obviously adamant that no conversations would be had with him.

If it is for the future, then target meaningful future assets.

Instead it's a hodge podge of mediocre skaters that could potentially fill middle six roles. Mostly wingers. Those are the easiest assets to grab.

Claude Giroux returned a 1st and Tippett. How we getting less value for a prime Jake who we could move anywhere than Giroux forcing his way to Florida?

OK, I see what you're doing, there's no coherent argument, you just wanna kill time until TC. To act as if KD has no plans as to what he looks for in acquiring assets in a trade is just nonsense.

 

[Gurglesons]

OK, I see what you're doing, there's no coherent argument, you just wanna kill time until TC. To act as if KD has no plans as to what he looks for in acquiring assets in a trade is just nonsense.

Sorry. The guy who signed Ryan Graves to a six year deal, Tristan Jarry to a five year deal, Eller, Acciari, and others and then traded futures for Erik Karlsson was playing the long game to suddenly enter a soft rebuild six months later where we "had to get younger"

This guy certainly has a plan. Plus he has glasses. So how can he not be smart?

 

[Ryder71]

Sorry. The guy who signed Ryan Graves to a six year deal, Tristan Jarry to a five year deal, Eller, Acciari, and others and then traded futures for Erik Karlsson was playing the long game to suddenly enter a soft rebuild six months later where we "had to get younger"

This guy certainly has a plan. Plus he has glasses. So how can he not be smart?

He made assessments and more informed ones once he got the lay of the land. The longer he's been here he's turned more for youth with an element of incrementally helping now with our hero Bunting to appease the fanbase and the Dinosaurs. However, Trading Jake was a great move, not just with the assets we garnered, but changing the mindset where by same old same old isn't gonna fly anymore.

 

[Gurglesons]

He made assessments and more informed ones once he got the lay of the land. The longer he's been here he's turned more for youth with an element of incrementally helping now with our hero Bunting to appease the fanbase and the Dinosaurs. However, Trading Jake was a great move, not just with the assets we garnered, but changing the mindset where by same old same old isn't gonna fly anymore.

Thanks, Kyle Dubas.

 

[Ryder71]

Thanks, Kyle Dubas.

Thought it was rather obvious to everyone, apparently not.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

The same old same old isn't going to fly anymore.

But here's HC Mike Sullivan for your 7th straight year of the same old same old.

Kyle Calculations is a lame duck until he proves otherwise. From just about every sane, logical vantage point he's not the alpha dog in this franchise. Hope he proves me wrong and soon.

 

[Gurglesons]

The same old same old isn't going to fly anymore.

But here's HC Mike Sullivan for your 7th straight year of the same old same old.

Kyle Calculations is a lame duck until he proves otherwise. From just about every sane, logical vantage point he's not the alpha dog in this franchise. Hope he proves me wrong and soon.

Maybe one day you'll understand his plan of competing now but also building for the future unlike that last guy who Rob Rossi and Josh Yohe said HAD NO PLAN. AND HE TOLD FSG THAT IT WAS IN HIS HEAD! HOW FUNNY IS THAT? AND THE GOALIE HAD SPICY PORK AND BROCCOLI. HILARIOUS!!!

 

[Ryder71]

Kyle Calculations will turn this bottom feeder of a team around, but it'll take several years. We all should know this, but some have trouble ACCEPTING IT.

2028 or 2029 we'll get off the mat.


In the mean time we will accrue picks and prospects, which is exactly what we should be doing. But to placate this insufferable fanbase we give incremental improvements for the current team, like Bunting and the players we'll bring in through free agency. We'll be the kings of the summer, but the regular season will be a painful one, UNLESS you accept the inevitable.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Maybe one day you'll understand his plan of competing now but also building for the future unlike that last guy who Rob Rossi and Josh Yohe said HAD NO PLAN. AND HE TOLD FSG THAT IT WAS IN HIS HEAD! HOW FUNNY IS THAT? AND THE GOALIE HAD SPICY PORK AND BROCCOLI. HILARIOUS!!!

lol I'm not gonna go all-in on your "Hextall did no wrong" thing but I mean... I have to admit that at least for now Dubas hasn't done much to back up this notion that he's some whizbang, monumental upgrade over the last guy. And I think Hextall is like... the definition of mediocrity and a name getting you places.

The local media had their field day with him because he's a little weird and off-putting and more importantly turned the gossip tap off HARD compared to JR. They definitely resented that.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I'm also just not that worked about it one way or the other because despite me being very grateful for all he's done here... I've just never seen Jake as this be-all end-all piece. This idea some had of Jake Guentzel taking over as the like... tentpole player on this team is kinda hilarious to me. He's not that guy. He's never been that guy.

And clearly after the team got over it's little baby tantrum they found out pretty fast that they looked just fine without him. Hell maybe better.

Jake is and has always been a really great complimentary player, but he's not the type of guy you want as THE guy, whether it be on a line or on the team as a whole.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

I'm not really in a rush to judge Dubas. It's one year, and he's here on a long term project.
I also don't like blaming GMs for some acquisitions performing below their career averages, like Graves did. There's no way to know that when you acquire them.

But I will say that I really don't like his cowardice in prioritizing his relationship with Sullivan, by keeping Reirden all year. It's clear he wasn't satisfied with the job he did, since he fired him post-season. So it should have happened when a playoff berth was still salvageable.