Salary Cap: Pens 2024 Summer Thread: "Thus, knocking us out of these superior numbers when we emerge! Mr. President, we must not allow a non-playoff bound gap!"

[Pancakes]

My point is we are acting like we added a bunch of 18 year old prospects to our system when in reality the reason Kyle targeted these players out of Carolina is he's hoping they can help extend our window within the next year or two.

If they don't pan out they are likely chopped meat given their contract status very quickly.

I think it's way more likely Michael Bunting is the best player for the Penguins out of this trade which is just poor management.

I mean if the goal is still try to contend in Sids twilight years than it makes sense to try for prospects who are already on the way rather than draft picks.

A draft pick isn't helping us for three four years unless you're turning around and using the picks for immediate help via trade.

As always this org needs to pick a lane and go with it. They're trying to contend and get younger at the same time and that's a hard needle to thread. The moves Dubas is making makes sense if the goal is contend now and build for the future but I think that is a dumb mission. Do one or the other imo.

 

[Gurglesons]

I mean if the goal is still try to contend in Sids twilight years than it makes sense to try for prospects who are already on the way rather than draft picks.

A draft pick isn't helping us for three four years unless you're turning around and using the picks for immediate help via trade.

As always this org needs to pick a lane and go with it. They're trying to contend and get younger at the same time and that's a hard needle to thread.

Just because you acquire a draft pick, doesn't mean you are going to use it.

A 1st is much more valuable in a trade than anyone we acquired IMO.

 

[Pancakes]

Just because you acquire a draft pick, doesn't mean you are going to use it.

A 1st is much more valuable in a trade than anyone we acquired IMO.

I'd be fine with that mindset but Dubas seems intent on building the system and contending.

It sounds nice in theory but in practice we suck at contending and aren't making high draft picks. Or even enough draft picks.

It's a terrible place to be.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Dubas said he targeted prospects over picks because it also allows them the flexibility to make trades for young NHLers as well. I don't know why they could do that with getting a 1st from Carolina but couldn't do that with Ponomarev and Koivunen from the Guentzel trade.

A team like the Leafs would presumably be more interested in a Koivunen for Robertson deal than a 2024 2nd for Robertson deal.

 

[Gurglesons]

I'd be fine with that mindset but Dubas seems intent on building the system and contending.

It sounds nice in theory but in practice we suck at contending and aren't making high draft picks. Or even enough draft picks.

It's a terrible place to be.

I'd rather us acquire a 1st for Jake Guentzel then utilize it to bring in a player like Chychrun and then either flip him or sign him to a shorter term deal and flip him again in a few years.

Dubas said he targeted prospects over picks because it also allows them the flexibility to make trades for young NHLers as well. I don't know why they could do that with getting a 1st from Carolina but couldn't do that with Ponomarev and Koivunen from the Guentzel trade.

A team like the Leafs would presumably be more interested in a Koivunen for Robertson deal than a 2024 2nd for Robertson deal.

I don't think they would, but guess we will see what happens.

 

[Ryder71]

Thanks teach.



I don’t see Koivunen or Pono as “progressing well”. They are not sure fire NHL prospects.

Sure they are. PONO already made the CAR roster before being injured and their line up is far deeper than ours. You're not good at valuations because we got so much more value than 27thOA eqiv in this deal. It's far better than TWO such picks.

 

[SEALBound]

If you get the 27ov pick in damn ANY NHL draft in recent memory, you are HOPING that they are turning out how Ponomarov and Koivunen are at the moment. Sure we can point to one-two others who have done better but the vast majority of drafts don't produce many impact players 1-2 years from the draft.

So if you're another team wanting a "1st round pick" and you wanted a forward, why wouldn't you value Pono or Koivunen at similar levels? This screams that classic Peter Griffin bit about "a boat is a boat but a mystery box could be anything, it could even be a boat! You know how much we've wanted one of those!"

 

[Gurglesons]

Sure they are. PONO already made the CAR roster before being injured and their line up is far deeper than ours. You're not good at valuations because we got so much more value than 27thOA eqiv in this deal. It's far better than TWO such picks.

Ponomarev is who I have the most hope for out of the prospects. He fits the mold of Nic Roy, Luostrainen, and other depth prospects Carolina has let go.

Will be funny when he's looking great and Nieto returns in December and he's immediately shipped to the AHL.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

What's with this forum only being able to understand things from one lockstep perspective or another?

The take here is that you hope for the best with picks in that range and so far they are looking good or even outproducing expectations but you also keep the odds firmly in mind and remember that guys like Erik Christensen and many, many others put up monster numbers at lower levels and turned into well... not much. Hell if anything EC outperformed his draft status. This isn't the NFL. 2nd rounders and below are typically flotsam and jetsam.

I don't really have a strong opinion on the trade itself. I just know that Jake had to go, something is better than nothing and I'm pulling hard for the guys they did get. But my gut and experience tells me that quality is always better than quantity and that players like Bunting on this team usually turn into pumpkins. So... you know... a little nuance? Though of course I realize... certain posters... went full hog with the "GIANT HAUL" stuff and have to keep up appearances, now. So hey... ya'll do you.

All that said I feel like the Penguins are due for some post-first-round rabbits pulled out of their hat since it's been a while. And all the better that another team drafted these as opposed to Penguins scouts who at this point I have little to no faith in.

 

[SEALBound]

What's with this forum only being able to understand things from one lockstep perspective or another?

The take here is that you hope for the best with picks in that range and so far they are looking good or even outproducing expectations but you also keep the odds firmly in mind and remember that guys like Erik Christensen and many, many others put up monster numbers at lower levels and turned into well... not much. Hell if anything EC outperformed his draft status. This isn't the NFL. 2nd rounders and below are typically flotsam and jetsam.

I don't really have a strong opinion on the trade itself. I just know that Jake had to go, something is better than nothing and I'm pulling hard for the guys they did get. But my gut and experience tells me that quality is always better than quantity and that players like Bunting on this team usually turn into pumpkins. So... you know... a little nuance? Though of course I realize... certain posters... went full hog with the "GIANT HAUL" stuff and have to keep up appearances, now. So hey... ya'll do you.

All that said I feel like the Penguins are due for some post-first-round rabbits pulled out of their hat since it's been a while. And all the better that another team drafted these as opposed to Penguins scouts who at this point I have little to no faith in.

Boy that's something that doesn't get addressed enough around here. I'd be opening up the FSG treasury to the Dallas Stars scouting and development group. Granted they haven't won-won anything but it's hard to look at Robertson, Johnston, Stankoven, Hintz, and Harley and not be impressed with their impressive drafting record.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Boy that's something that doesn't get addressed enough around here. I'd be opening up the FSG treasury to the Dallas Stars scouting and development group. Granted they haven't won-won anything but it's hard to look at Robertson, Johnston, Stankoven, Hintz, and Harley and not be impressed with their impressive drafting record.

Much like the coach always has a ready excuse at hand both for himself and others speaking for him... the scouting department always has "B..b...but we've had BARELY any first rounders!"

Like all good excuses it contains a kernel of truth that gives you pause. And it is an ORGANIZATIONAL failure more than a scouting department failure. But in the end a lack of results protracted over the course of years is what it is. If we're being honest this whole-ass team has needed a shitload of rot scooped out for a while, now. But with how things have gone here and how the NHL is in general they'd probably just turn right around and hire in a bunch of droogies and best-buds, anyway.

 

[HandshakeLine]

I hate on the coaching a lot, but honestly, there have been somethings seriously wrong with the scouting and player evaluation departments too. Just lots of puzzling trades, draft picks, and acquisitions for the last several years that don't make any sense from either the point of view of our professed team philosophy or based on the results.

Don't get me wrong, I'm okay with us swinging for the fences or wanting to shift things up, but there has to be some sort of internal logic to it and a lot of these moves don't really have that.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I hate on the coaching a lot, but honestly, there have been somethings seriously wrong with the scouting and player evaluation departments too. Just lots of puzzling trades, draft picks, and acquisitions for the last several years that don't make any sense from either the point of view of our professed team philosophy or based on the results.

Don't get me wrong, I'm okay with us swinging for the fences or wanting to shift things up, but there has to be some sort of internal logic to it and a lot of these moves don't really have that.

What the pro scouting department don't bungle... the coaching staff will lol

 

[HandshakeLine]

What the pro scouting department don't bungle... the coaching staff will lol

Sometimes, like the Granlund trade, they work together!

 

[SEALBound]

Much like the coach always has a ready excuse at hand both for himself and others speaking for him... the scouting department always has "B..b...but we've had BARELY any first rounders!"

Like all good excuses it contains a kernel of truth that gives you pause. And it is an ORGANIZATIONAL failure more than a scouting department failure. But in the end a lack of results protracted over the course of years is what it is. If we're being honest this whole-ass team has needed a shitload of rot scooped out for a while, now. But with how things have gone here and how the NHL is in general they'd probably just turn right around and hire in a bunch of droogies and best-buds, anyway.

It is hard to have a good prospect pool when you do so little drafting. We are undoubtedly in the bottom five in terms of "number of picks in the last 15 years," but I agree that it's an organizational failure. It's the double-edged sword that continues to cut both ways from the Mike Sullivan hiring. While the initial infusion of youth and two cups were great, we do seem to be finding ourselves with quite a few players in the system that don't scream "Mike Sullivan hockey". And when they do, they are not impact players.

Legare might be a good example of "scouting failures". He's a wing we traded up to get. He had a good shot, yes, but there was always a knock on his skating ability. Now why would they draft a guy with skating issues when your NHL team runs a system that relies on skating ability and speed on the wings?

On the other hand, you then get a guy like Hallander who, on paper, has all of the attributes that you would generally look for - speed, willingness to go to the net, could PK, plays center and can take faceoffs...and he gets 3 games.

Then you have to listen to Sullivan say in post-games "well we have who have, who else are we gonna get?"

 

[Freeptop]

When comparing the Guentzel deal to comparable rental deals, the Pens did fine. It's only when you compare to the rampant speculation that the Pens were going to get some unprecedented haul in return for him does it really look disappointing.

It wasn't some amazing deal, but it wasn't a bad deal, either.

Would I have preferred an unconditional 1st? Of course! On the other hand, in terms of likelihood to turn into an NHL player, 27th overall vs 44th overall isn't actually all that different, in the end.

I'm also not inclined to think that they would have traded it if they had gotten a first. It's more of a gut feeling than anything, though, so I could be wrong on that score.

 

[HandshakeLine]

On the other hand, you then get a guy like Hallander who, on paper, has all of the attributes that you would generally look for - speed, willingness to go to the net, could PK, plays center and can take faceoffs...and he gets 3 games.

Yeah, that serious disconnect between the development wing, the amateur scouts, the pro scouts, and the coaching staff just screams "dysfunctional" to me, but some people think that's how it should be running.

In the end, I come down to the fact that this has been a consistent problem in so many ways for so many parts of this organization under different GMs that it feels like something deeply rooted in team culture and probably goes back to the nepotistic tendencies this team has.

But like, why would you Hallander go without even giving him a shot, especially after you paid to re-acquire him? Same with Kapanen? These are real "shoot yourself in the dick" moments for a franchise that has little to no assets.

 

[Ryder71]

Will be funny when he's looking great and Nieto returns in December and he's immediately shipped to the AHL.

That won't happen. PONO as well as Koivunen will be fixtures here barring a great trade by Kyle! It'll just take Koivunen a year of seasoning most likely.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I don't really have a strong opinion on the trade itself. I just know that Jake had to go, something is better than nothing and I'm pulling hard for the guys they did get. But my gut and experience tells me that quality is always better than quantity and that players like Bunting on this team usually turn into pumpkins. So... you know... a little nuance? Though of course I realize... certain posters... went full hog with the "GIANT HAUL" stuff and have to keep up appearances, now. So hey... ya'll do you.

I think the basis of the disagreement here is how much "quantity versus quality" the Penguins actually got. Using the 1st rounder as an example, is there really much of a decline in quality for pick #27 versus pick #44 and Ponomarev? I don't really think so.

Just looking at a few drafts, for guys taken in 23-30 versus guys taken in the 43-50 range:

• 2015: Boeser, Konecny, Roslovic and Beauvillier in 23-30 range, Cernak, Sprong, Hintz and Greenway in the 43-50 range
• 2016: Jones, Thompson, Howden, Frederic and Steel in 23-30 range, Girard, Hart and Lindgren in the 43-50 range
• 2017: POJ, Poehling, Oettinger, Frost, Jokiharju and Tolvanen in 23-30 range, Texier, Formenton, Ferraro and Comtois in 43-50 range
• 2018: Lundestrom, Lundkvist, Sandin and Veleno in 23-30, Peruvonich, Fehervary and Marchenko in 43-50 range

I think the upsides are higher with the late 1sts rather than the mid 2nds, but the likelihood is about the same and the most common levels are about the same.

Just as a super rough estimate, these drafts suggest you'll be getting this out of a late 1st:

-50% chance of a non-NHL regular
-35% chance of a middling NHL regular
-15% chance of a great NHL regular

While you're looking at something like this with a mid 2nd rounder:

-55% chance of a non-NHL regular
-35% chance of a middling NHL regular
-10% chance of a great NHL regular

It doesn't seem to be all that different, outside of the "great" NHLers in the late 1st round generally being better than the "great" NHLers in the mid 2nd round.

 

[HandshakeLine]

I never pegged Ryder for being a Joan Didion fan, but The Year of Magical Thinking is woefully underappreciated.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

When comparing the Guentzel deal to comparable rental deals, the Pens did fine. It's only when you compare to the rampant speculation that the Pens were going to get some unprecedented haul in return for him does it really look disappointing.

It wasn't some amazing deal, but it wasn't a bad deal, either.

Would I have preferred an unconditional 1st? Of course! On the other hand, in terms of likelihood to turn into an NHL player, 27th overall vs 44th overall isn't actually all that different, in the end.

I'm also not inclined to think that they would have traded it if they had gotten a first. It's more of a gut feeling than anything, though, so I could be wrong on that score.

Right. Jake was a rental in the end. To hear some go on about it you'd have thought they were about to pull the Lindros trade 2.0 or something. Then to make it extra funny they now have to act like what the Penguins DID get (which was OK) are a collection of stone cold, can't miss badasses haha

 

[SEALBound]

Yeah, that serious disconnect between the development wing, the amateur scouts, the pro scouts, and the coaching staff just screams "dysfunctional" to me, but some people think that's how it should be running.

In the end, I come down to the fact that this has been a consistent problem in so many ways for so many parts of this organization under different GMs that it feels like something deeply rooted in team culture and probably goes back to the nepotistic tendencies this team has.

The core of which comes back to one man - Sullivan. We get into this "well when did it start going wrong" and the answer is right at "when Mike Sullivan's ego got a little to big and his approach changed from "I have to coach against other teams" to "other teams have to coach against me because I have two cups".

I think this is also where the loss of Rick Tocchet is really felt. Obviously players like Phil and Sullivan didn't get a long but there was a nice buffer there with Tocchet. I don't think he was a "yes man" to Sullivan which made Sullivan much more accountable. You lose him and Sully brings in the "yes men" and...you get what we have.

We've just lacked the more "hands on GM" that is willing to pull Sullivan in and say "hey, WTF with Hallander? or WTF with Sprong?" or "WTF with Kapanen? Change that third line or don't come in tomorrow". But that points to what you're saying about deep-rooted rot.

 

[HandshakeLine]

The core of which comes back to one man - Sullivan. We get into this "well when did it start going wrong" and the answer is right at "when Mike Sullivan's ego got a little to big and his approach changed from "I have to coach against other teams" to "other teams have to coach against me because I have two cups".

I think this is also where the loss of Rick Tocchet is really felt. Obviously players like Phil and Sullivan didn't get a long but there was a nice buffer there with Tocchet. I don't think he was a "yes man" to Sullivan which made Sullivan much more accountable. You lose him and Sully brings in the "yes men" and...you get what we have.

We've just lacked the more "hands on GM" that is willing to pull Sullivan in and say "hey, WTF with Hallander? or WTF with Sprong?" or "WTF with Kapanen? Change that third line or don't come in tomorrow". But that points to what you're saying about deep-rooted rot.

He is the only true constant with the team, so that's where a lot of the attention should be. But I also think that the team hasn't really been hiring good scouts for a bit and we don't seem to be developing players in WB/S as effectively as we could be.

Time will tell to see if Hextall or Dubas' changes there bear any fruit, but right now, given how Dubas treats other aspects of the organization, I'm skeptical.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I think the basis of the disagreement here is how much "quantity versus quality" the Penguins actually got. Using the 1st rounder as an example, is there really much of a decline in quality for pick #27 versus pick #44 and Ponomarev? I don't really think so.

Just looking at a few drafts, for guys taken in 23-30 versus guys taken in the 43-50 range:

• 2015: Boeser, Konecny, Roslovic and Beauvillier in 23-30 range, Cernak, Sprong, Hintz and Greenway in the 43-50 range
• 2016: Jones, Thompson, Howden, Frederic and Steel in 23-30 range, Girard, Hart and Lindgren in the 43-50 range
• 2017: POJ, Poehling, Oettinger, Frost, Jokiharju and Tolvanen in 23-30 range, Texier, Formenton, Ferraro and Comtois in 43-50 range
• 2018: Lundestrom, Lundkvist, Sandin and Veleno in 23-30, Peruvonich, Fehervary and Marchenko in 43-50 range

I think the upsides are higher with the late 1sts rather than the mid 2nds, but the likelihood is about the same and the most common levels are about the same.

Just as a super rough estimate, these drafts suggest you'll be getting this out of a late 1st:

-50% chance of a non-NHL regular
-35% chance of a middling NHL regular
-15% chance of a great NHL regular

While you're looking at something like this with a mid 2nd rounder:

-55% chance of a non-NHL regular
-35% chance of a middling NHL regular
-10% chance of a great NHL regular

It doesn't seem to be all that different, outside of the "great" NHLers in the late 1st round generally being better than the "great" NHLers in the mid 2nd round.

I definitely appreciate you bringing the receipts but I already largely agree. I just didn't really cover it in my original post. As far as I'm concerned anything really past like... the top ten overall is getting into "crapshoot" territory. Like... I have just about as much use for a 20something first than I do a second. They are both kinda... well... meh.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Right. Jake was a rental in the end. To hear some go on about it you'd have thought they were about to pull the Lindros trade 2.0 or something. Then to make it extra funny they now have to act like what the Penguins DID get (which was OK) are a collection of stone cold, can't miss badasses haha

Look, often-injured 4th liners who are decent at one minor facet of the game don't grow on trees, Willy.