Salary Cap: Pens 2024 Summer Thread: "Thus, knocking us out of these superior numbers when we emerge! Mr. President, we must not allow a non-playoff bound gap!"

[Pancakes]

I think Dubas can earn his contract if he handles the post-Sid years correctly. None of this current shit matters anymore, particularly because the organization is wholly unwilling to change the easiest cog in the machine to swap out. I dunno whether that's a Dubas thing, an FSG thing, or both.

Yeah tbh contending again with Sid is more of a nice to have at this point rather than a necessity. I hope Sid gets more playoff hockey but regardless Dubas needs to nail the rebuild. That is the key.

Shocker.

Because of the extra year. I bet there would be at least mild interest now.

 

[SEALBound]

So, essentially you don't think GM's or people in positions like scouting and player development aren't nuanced enough to understand that in a fairly unremarkable draft there isn't much fall off from say 27OA to 44th?

If we're talking top 10 you'd have a solid point, but that's why Kyle garnered the Lottery protection.

And as I said previously in placing value on our haul in the Guentzel deal. I'd much rather have Koivunen, PONO, Bunting, Cruz and a high 2hd rounder than TWO late 1sts. Anybody who understands valuations accurately would as well. Including GM's.

Bunting has already shown himself to be a solid addition who's 28 and signed for two more years.

Awhile ago (and draft rankings do change a decent bit in the later parts of the season) it was said that after about #20 that there was little difference until about #50. The comments were basically 1-5 gets you a solid player, 5-20 will get you a likely NHL player, then 21-50/60 will be a crapshoot and they are "all the same player".

27 would have obviously been preferable, but let's not pretend that picking at 44 instead is some franchise-altering moment. Especially when either pick isn't making an impact until Sid and Geno are long retired and the team is in the gutter.

I think certain people are just fixating one a single point to really drive home a well-known agenda.

I’m sure there are plenty who understand the marginal difference between a late first and mid second.

That doesn’t mean people don’t have cognitive bias when seeing a 1st round prospect vs a 2nd round prospect.

For sure they do. I would say though that after 15ov, they are looked at different than 16-32ov. I think once you get past that top 15, you start combining "draft pedigree" with performance when trying to establish value.

If you ask a GM to rank the players for D+1 and they are:

A: 7ov - 50gp 20g 20a 40pt
B: 27ov - 50gp 10g 20a 30pt
C: 44ov - 50gp 20g 30a 50pt

They would say A, C, B most likely (assuming all things equal - position, league, H/W, style, etc).

There's a human side to this too. GMs tend to like the guys they draft. We pretend like establishing value is an exact calculation and there's an exact value. In reality, value fluctuates up and down consistently. You just want to see a stock market like line where, even though there are peaks and dips, there is an overall trend upward.

 

[MayorofWBS]

It's going to be interesting whether Dubas can move some our vets (Smith, Eller and Acciari) this summer without paying a penalty to do so. I'm not even going to mention Rakell or Graves as their AAV and term left makes them both very problematic to move.

Petts, I see as staying with the potential to be sold off at the TDL depending on how the team is doing in the standings.

 

[Andy99]

Fwiw, according to dk he wrote he recently learned that Eller was one of the players that Dubas offered around at the deadline. But there was no interest.

Also according to DK, there seems to be a growing sense from some members of the organization that Brayden Yager is a legitimate threat to make the Penguins roster this fall. He'll need to add upper body strength and show resiliency to work through it, but, his stock is way up because his shot and skill is already at NHL levels.

I told people here but everyone thinks he’s a 1-2 year away lol

 

[Ryder71]

I told people here but everyone thinks he’s a 1-2 year away lol

He is. lol

I’m sure there are plenty who understand the marginal difference between a late first and mid second.

That doesn’t mean people don’t have cognitive bias when seeing a 1st round prospect vs a 2nd round prospect.

Not the people who actually make the deals it doesn't, and that's all that really matters.

 

[Ryder71]

Awhile ago (and draft rankings do change a decent bit in the later parts of the season) it was said that after about #20 that there was little difference until about #50. The comments were basically 1-5 gets you a solid player, 5-20 will get you a likely NHL player, then 21-50/60 will be a crapshoot and they are "all the same player".

27 would have obviously been preferable, but let's not pretend that picking at 44 instead is some franchise-altering moment. Especially when either pick isn't making an impact until Sid and Geno are long retired and the team is in the gutter.

I think certain people are just fixating one a single point to really drive home a well-known agenda.

For sure they do. I would say though that after 15ov, they are looked at different than 16-32ov. I think once you get past that top 15, you start combining "draft pedigree" with performance when trying to establish value.

If you ask a GM to rank the players for D+1 and they are:

A: 7ov - 50gp 20g 20a 40pt
B: 27ov - 50gp 10g 20a 30pt
C: 44ov - 50gp 20g 30a 50pt

They would say A, C, B most likely (assuming all things equal - position, league, H/W, style, etc).

There's a human side to this too. GMs tend to like the guys they draft. We pretend like establishing value is an exact calculation and there's an exact value. In reality, value fluctuates up and down consistently. You just want to see a stock market like line where, even though there are peaks and dips, there is an overall trend upward.

Again, you have to look at the totality of the package, and the package we garnered supersedes TWO late 1sts regarding value. It's just an absurd talking point by some here. They aren't nuanced in their argument. 1ST OA is a 1st round pick, 32OA is also a 1ST round pick, but their respective value is quite different. 27 to 44 in THIS particular draft is very likely negligible, but again, we got a big ass package with several young players with good upside and who are further along in their development, as well as an established mid 6 forward with term. That's so much more value then two late 1sts who may or may not get a sniff in the league.

 

[Empoleon8771]

It's going to be interesting whether Dubas can move some our vets (Smith, Eller and Acciari) this summer without paying a penalty to do so. I'm not even going to mention Rakell or Graves as their AAV and term left makes them both very problematic to move.

Petts, I see as staying with the potential to be sold off at the TDL depending on how the team is doing in the standings.

Why would the Penguins, with the state of their current team, be paying a penalty to move any of those guys? Not in the sense that "they have positive value", in the sense of "why is a mediocre team paying to get out of bad deals?".

 

[Gurglesons]

Also according to DK, there seems to be a growing sense from some members of the organization that Brayden Yager is a legitimate threat to make the Penguins roster this fall. He'll need to add upper body strength and show resiliency to work through it, but, his stock is way up because his shot and skill is already at NHL levels.

I told people here but everyone thinks he’s a 1-2 year away lol

Don’t we hear this every year with our top prospects and then Mike Sullivan plays them 2 of the 8 pre season games and they head back to junior early.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

I have a very hard time believing that Lars Eller is untradeable. I am sure that the price point was the issue. Dubas probably has an idea of Eller's worth, and it was higher than what teams wanted to spend for a player with a season left on his deal. Probably the same for Reilly Smith at the deadline last season.

Now, teams get these guys for a year. Dubas does not have to win these trades. We need to create space for younger players and cap space for a potential top-six winger upgrade. Get what you can, Kyle.

I agree that Graves and Rakell are not movable right now unless we take back a similarly odorous contract. We should just sit on those two and hope for a rebound.

Acciari is a strange case. I would argue that the St. Louis or Toronto version of Acciari is a player we really need to keep. But where was he last season? If he really is the latest Brock McGinn, we need to move on. I don't hate the idea of keeping him, but I feel like him centering the fourth line kills offense. I would MUCH rather see him playing right wing, but you know...Sullivan.

Why would the Penguins, with the state of their current team, be paying a penalty to move any of those guys? Not in the sense that "they have positive value", in the sense of "why is a mediocre team paying to get out of bad deals?".

Agreed. We have to avoid sweeteners in any trade. We have to keep our future assets moving forward. It is imperative.

 

[Ryder71]

Don’t we hear this every year with our top prospects and then Mike Sullivan plays them 2 of the 8 pre season games and they head back to junior early.

He's a year away. And I don't anticipate they'll rush him. I do think this long playoff run does accelerate his development. Still, I think most likely 25-26. Very exciting.

 

[SEALBound]

I can see moving Acciari to help with cap space. I think we should keep Eller. But yeah, they are hardly restrictive anchor contracts. If the most annoying thing on the forward roster is a 2x2 for Acciari, then so be it. We aren't in bad shape. And value is all relative, guys like Eller and Acciari don't have much value to begin with, regardless of how many teams want them. You're talking a 4th or 5th at best. There's a slight difference between "low value" and "players not having much value to begin with". Certainly not at a level where you have to pay to get rid of someone. If there is a trade in place where you need either's cap hit as space to bring someone in, then you might pay a mid-rounder for the other team to take on the cap hit or get a 3rd party to do but that's a standard "service fee" anymore.

Again, you have to look at the totality of the package, and the package we garnered supersedes TWO late 1sts regarding value. It's just an absurd talking point by some here. They aren't nuanced in their argument. 1ST OA is a 1st round pick, 32OA is also a 1ST round pick, but their respective value is quite different. 27 to 44 in THIS particular draft is very likely negligible, but again, we got a big ass package with several young players with good upside and who are further along in their development, as well as an established mid 6 forward with term. That's so much more value then two late 1sts who may or may not get a sniff in the league.

Oh, for sure. We HOPE that elusive "late 1st" that has absolutely broken people here mentally and emotionally turns out the way Pono and Koivunen are right now. If Poulin were oversees and just posted a PPG season in Liiga, we'd be excited and anxious to get him on the team. I think people lose perspective a bit because of how relatively strong Carolina's prospect pool was and they get way too caught up with "well he was only the #6 prospect and we should have gotten their number 4 prospect, fail!" idiocracy.

I pointed out at the time, and Emp did recently, if the trade was Bunting, 3 2nds, and a 4th - everyone would be jumping for joy because in reality, that's quite a haul for a rental. Some people just can't be happy.

Right now, we get to discuss how (potentially) three youngsters fit into the roster next year - Pono, Koivunen, and Yager. Realistically, we could be seeing the makings of a whole new offensive-minded line. When was the last time we legitimately got to discuss something like that?

 

[Gurglesons]

I have a very hard time believing that Lars Eller is untradeable. I am sure that the price point was the issue. Dubas probably has an idea of Eller's worth, and it was higher than what teams wanted to spend for a player with a season left on his deal. Probably the same for Reilly Smith at the deadline last season.

Now, teams get these guys for a year. Dubas does not have to win these trades. We need to create space for younger players and cap space for a potential top-six winger upgrade. Get what you can, Kyle.

I agree that Graves and Rakell are not movable right now unless we take back a similarly odorous contract. We should just sit on those two and hope for a rebound.

Acciari is a strange case. I would argue that the St. Louis or Toronto version of Acciari is a player we really need to keep. But where was he last season? If he really is the latest Brock McGinn, we need to move on. I don't hate the idea of keeping him, but I feel like him centering the fourth line kills offense. I would MUCH rather see him playing right wing, but you know...Sullivan.

Why? He's basically Jeff Carter from 2022-23 that everyone said was awful.

 

[Darren McCord]

Why? He's basically Jeff Carter from 2022-23 that everyone said was awful.

at least he is a million cheaper in a higher cap world.

Eller isn't a problem if he is the 4th line center. the problem is when Mike Sullivan plays him as the 3rd line center and puts him on the top PP.

we could be seeing the makings of a whole new offensive-minded line. When was the last time we legitimately got to discuss something like that?

And then we remember Sully was still the coach and the third line will be

Some random Vet - Eller - Acciari.

I feel bad for Nieto but also relieved he will not be available.

we could be seeing the makings of a whole new offensive-minded line. When was the last time we legitimately got to discuss something like that?

And then we remember Sully was still the coach and the third line will be

Some random Vet - Eller - Acciari.

I feel bad for Nieto but also relieved he will not be available.

 

[Gurglesons]

at least he is a million cheaper in a higher cap world.

Eller isn't a problem if he is the 4th line center. the problem is when Mike Sullivan plays him as the 3rd line center and puts him on the top PP.

Yeah, he is cheaper. I just don't see why anyone would want to add him to their team. Maybe for something like a 7th.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

NHL teams are always tinkering with their fourth lines. Lars Eller is probably a top-10 fourth-line center in this league, even at his age.

For US, it makes no sense because...well, Sullivan.

And his salary does not hinder much.

 

[Darren McCord]

Yeah, he is cheaper. I just don't see why anyone would want to add him to their team. Maybe for something like a 7th.

ooo ya i dont see anyone wanting to add him. I also don't see a need to move him. He was 6th on the team in goals lol. He had as many goals as rakell and more than smith.

Poulin - Eller - Accairi would be a fine fourth line to start the year. I actually think Eller is the type of player who could help some young players.

If you can move to upgrade sure but no need to move him out of desperation.

 

[Gurglesons]

ooo ya i dont see anyone wanting to add him. I also don't see a need to move him. He was 6th on the team in goals lol. He had as many goals as rakell and more than smith.

Poulin - Eller - Accairi would be a fine fourth line to start the year. I actually think Eller is the type of player who could help some young players.

If you can move to upgrade sure but no need to move him out of desperation.

Yeah, I'm fine with that 4th line. Would prefer it to be one or the other in terms of Eller / Acciari, but at this point who gives a shit.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Eller had no interest last year due to the extra year on his contract and his age. Teams weren't going to risk being stuck with him if he fell off a cliff next year. It wasn't reflective of his ability level, it was that his upside of solid bottom-6 C play wasn't high enough to justify taking on his contract for 2024-2025.

If he has an even decent year this year, he'll likely be moved for a 3rd or 4th at the deadline as a rental.

 

[Darren McCord]

Yeah, I'm fine with that 4th line. Would prefer it to be one or the other in terms of Eller / Acciari, but at this point who gives a shit.

Ya that is where I am at.

 

[HandshakeLine]

I would like us to attempt to fix the power play before we worry about luxuries like our boring ass 4th line.

 

[SEALBound]

I would like us to attempt to fix the power play before we worry about luxuries like our boring ass 4th line.

No shit. Everyone talks about "power play specialists" or "power play merchants" like it's a bad thing. I'm over here like "f***, go get that guy then!"

 

[Ryder71]

I can see moving Acciari to help with cap space. I think we should keep Eller. But yeah, they are hardly restrictive anchor contracts. If the most annoying thing on the forward roster is a 2x2 for Acciari, then so be it. We aren't in bad shape. And value is all relative, guys like Eller and Acciari don't have much value to begin with, regardless of how many teams want them. You're talking a 4th or 5th at best. There's a slight difference between "low value" and "players not having much value to begin with". Certainly not at a level where you have to pay to get rid of someone. If there is a trade in place where you need either's cap hit as space to bring someone in, then you might pay a mid-rounder for the other team to take on the cap hit or get a 3rd party to do but that's a standard "service fee" anymore.


Oh, for sure. We HOPE that elusive "late 1st" that has absolutely broken people here mentally and emotionally turns out the way Pono and Koivunen are right now. If Poulin were oversees and just posted a PPG season in Liiga, we'd be excited and anxious to get him on the team. I think people lose perspective a bit because of how relatively strong Carolina's prospect pool was and they get way too caught up with "well he was only the #6 prospect and we should have gotten their number 4 prospect, fail!" idiocracy.

I pointed out at the time, and Emp did recently, if the trade was Bunting, 3 2nds, and a 4th - everyone would be jumping for joy because in reality, that's quite a haul for a rental. Some people just can't be happy.

Right now, we get to discuss how (potentially) three youngsters fit into the roster next year - Pono, Koivunen, and Yager. Realistically, we could be seeing the makings of a whole new offensive-minded line. When was the last time we legitimately got to discuss something like that?

And to that point, Koivunen's progression has been something special. I read that for his age it's the best year for a guy under 21 in 30 years. That's rather impressive and his value far exceeds what one would consider a generic 2hd round pick.

 

[HandshakeLine]

The Penguin obsession with the bottom 6 is really the biggest cargo cult nonsense. We're not going to get that 2015-2016 magic back ever.

No shit. Everyone talks about "power play specialists" or "power play merchants" like it's a bad thing. I'm over here like "f***, go get that guy then!"

I still feel like people are kind of in denial about how historically bad the powerplay was this year. It was one of the worst powerplays ever iced by a Penguins team. It was worse than the Gen X powerplay.

Let that sink in for a second. A functional powerplay, not even a great one, a functional one, would have meant the playoffs. And we did nothing to fix it the whole season long.

 

[SEALBound]

And to that point, Koivunen's progression has been something special. I read that for his age it's the best year for a guy under 21 in 30 years. That's rather impressive and his value far exceeds what one would consider a generic 2hd round pick.

Yeah, that's great! I mean, in the playoff games I watched, he was noticeable nearly every shift. And he f***ing brought it the entire playoffs. I thought he looked decent in the 2 AHL games too. He was the prized piece of the return so it makes sense.

The Penguin obsession with the bottom 6 is really the biggest cargo cult nonsense. We're not going to get that 2015-2016 magic back ever.


I still feel like people are kind of in denial about how historically bad the powerplay was this year. It was one of the worst powerplays ever iced by a Penguins team. It was worse than the Gen X powerplay.

Let that sink in for a second. A functional powerplay, not even a great one, a functional one, would have meant the playoffs. And we did nothing to fix it the whole season long.

Not with this group no. Have to remember, Sid and Geno were late 20's. Still very much capable of elite level of play. It was just the perfect storm where everything worked out.

Re: the PP, yeah and Todd Reirden, the mastermind behind it all, kept his job the entire year and Sullivan fought tooth and nail for him to stay. Cultural rot where loyalty outweighs success.

 

[Gurglesons]

The Penguin obsession with the bottom 6 is really the biggest cargo cult nonsense. We're not going to get that 2015-2016 magic back ever.

I don't mind paying money for the bottom six as long as we are paying for players that belong there and bring uniqueness.

When you are spending money on vanilla players like Lars Eller it just sucks.

If we dropped 4+ mil on player types like Yakov Trenin, Nick Paul, and Tanner Jeannot, I'd be stoked.