Salary Cap: Penguins Salary Cap Thread: We suck again summer edition

[K Fleur]

Looking at their cap situation, I think the largest impact Granlund being here has on the cap is that you likely can't replace Zucker in free agency without trading Granlund. I'm using a template of trading POJ and futures for Swayman and signing Graves ($4.5 million), Bunting ($5 million) and Swayman ($5 million). Without trading Granlund, I'm sitting with about $3.5 million in cap space with this lineup:

Guentzel-Crosby-Rakell
Bunting-Malkin-Rust
XXXXX-XXXXX-Granlund
O'Connor-Poehling-Carter
Nylander-XXXXX

Graves-Letang
Pettersson-Petry
Smith-Rutta
Ruhwedel

Swayman-DeSmith

I really like that top-6, defense and goalies (I think DeSmith is fine as long as he's not forced to start more than 25-30 games), but you don't really have the money available to address that bottom-6. You'd have to get really lucky like Hextall did in 2021-2022 with ERod and Heinen on cheap and terrific value deals, which I really don't think they should be trying to do with their 3rd line.

This might be a "no shit, Sherlock" comment, but they either can't replace Zucker or can't build a good 3rd line without trading Granlund.

“That top 6 looks really solid”- Emp in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025

 

[Malkinstheman]

Lets not kid ourselves by putting Rust with Geno. GCR will continue to be a thing as long as those 3 are on the same team.

 

[Peat]

Perhaps a little surprising coming from me but a good LD is second only to a new starting tandem on my short list. I think it will make a much bigger impact on the total roster rather than hand-wringing about the damned third line for like the 12th consecutive offseason.

The bottom six went -22 and pretty much killed us. I think even you've got to admit that's a hand-wringing scenario

But to reiterate what I said, good dmen will help them a ton.

I admire your optimism Emp but you know damned well that we're getting your Granlund/Malkin/Rust tire fire line next season.

I dunno, Granlund isn't exactly a Sully player, and he didn't really use him with either of the top six last year... although sweet jesus, those are very impressive stats for the 25 minutes or so he did. Actually all of his stats are impressive. I'll laugh if he has a good season next year and we're belatedly happy Hextall did it.

Lets not kid ourselves by putting Rust with Geno. GCR will continue to be a thing as long as those 3 are on the same team.

40 minutes difference between time spent with Geno and time spent with Sid. Not sure I'd expect Sully to stop flip-flopping there.

 

[mpp9]

We won three cups with the likes of Talbot, Sheary, and Fedotenko in our top 6. I feel like guys like Cousins and Howden were getting top 6 playing time for the Knights and panthers.

We need a 3rd line that can produce 5 on 5 and a 4th line that doesn't bleed goals. I would rather have Sid and Geno carry subpar wingers than them trying to carry the entire team offensively.

I won’t bet against 87/71 on being able to turn back the clock for a playoff run and elevate subpar linemates, but I think the reasonable expectation is that they need more help than past playoff runs AND we need a legit bottom six.

Unlikely a GM can accomplish that at this point but hope it happens.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I dunno, Granlund isn't exactly a Sully player, and he didn't really use him with either of the top six last year... although sweet jesus, those are very impressive stats for the 25 minutes or so he did. Actually all of his stats are impressive. I'll laugh if he has a good season next year and we're belatedly happy Hextall did it.

While this makes no logical sense based on what I've seen... the absurdity factor of it alone does not put it fully outside the realm of possibilities for this bizarro team.

 

[Empoleon8771]

While this makes no logical sense based on what I've seen... the absurdity factor of it alone does not put it fully outside the realm of possibilities for this bizarro team.

See I feel like Granlund is basically just Dominik Simon that has managed to stay in the NHL for all of these years. I actually think he has a play style that would mesh well with Crosby.

I just hope they get rid of him before experimenting, though. I initially was against a buyout but honestly the buyout penalty isn't large enough for me to fully say no to it.

Here's the best way I can put it. Do I think Granlund would mesh well with Crosby and Guentzel? Yeah, I think it's more likely than not. But you can also buy out Granlund and sign Connor Brown, and I'm pretty damn confident he'd also be a great fit with Crosby. And frankly I'm willing to bet you can get Brown for less money than Granlund even after including Granlund's buyout.

 

[Peat]

See I feel like Granlund is basically just Dominik Simon that has managed to stay in the NHL for all of these years. I actually think he has a play style that would mesh well with Crosby.

I just hope they get rid of him before experimenting, though. I initially was against a buyout but honestly the buyout penalty isn't large enough for me to fully say no to it.

Here's the best way I can put it. Do I think Granlund would mesh well with Crosby and Guentzel? Yeah, I think it's more likely than not. But you can also buy out Granlund and sign Connor Brown, and I'm pretty damn confident he'd also be a great fit with Crosby. And frankly I'm willing to bet you can get Brown for less money than Granlund even after including Granlund's buyout.

Simon was good in the corners and forechecked hard. Granlund has twice the skill, but if he doesn't have that battle element, that'll be an issue, with coaching if not actual performance. And I can't say I've seen a ton of battle from Granlund so far.

 

[Gurglesons]

Granlund is just a skilled player who was bad at skating and his skating went.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Lets not kid ourselves by putting Rust with Geno. GCR will continue to be a thing as long as those 3 are on the same team.

Rust even-strength TOI (lines):
503 minutes with Crosby
443 minutes with Malkin

 

[AuroraBorealis]

I dunno, Granlund isn't exactly a Sully player, and he didn't really use him with either of the top six last year... although sweet jesus, those are very impressive stats for the 25 minutes or so he did. Actually all of his stats are impressive. I'll laugh if he has a good season next year and we're belatedly happy Hextall did it.

I was very happy with him defensively and I was fairly happy with his chance generation relative to his usage. He got 67.7% D-zone starts at ES here, so it's not fair to ask him to generate chances like the top 6 do. Not to mention the quality of linemates.
Very unhappy with the end-product like everyone else, of course. But I could definitely see a timeline where he's worth like 3M to the team, should he stick around. The scoring's bound to pickup a bit.
Injuries may give him more time in the top 6.

He'll never become a PP1 fixture, but I think he could be effective there. Could see him being better with distribution than Sid was this year on that half-wall.
28 PPP's in Nashville last season.
Less flashy, more high percentage, careful passing. He makes these dangerous saucer passes down low that I like too.
It's not something our PP typically does, so it kind of throws opponents for a loop.

 

[Wattsburgh]

Unless we are trading Jake for a Huberdeau-Tkachuk type swap then I’ll pass. Or if that player was a defenseman (like Montour) or a Goalie (like Hellebuyck) add to it from both sides to make it work. Like if we had to add a Petry and two thirds while they added a Verhaghe…

 

[DesertPenguin]

Granlunds buyout caphit is only 833k next year and then 1.833m the 3 years after. Cap is expected to jump after next season so buying him out is a no-brainer imo

I'm prepared to be wrong, but I don't think Granlund needs a buyout. We won't be able to get a 2nd back, that was an overpayment, but a team out there would be interested in Granlund for a bag of pucks. Worst case you retain a million, which is still better over the long term than a buyout.

 

[CascadiaPenguin]

Granlunds buyout caphit is only 833k next year and then 1.833m the 3 years after. Cap is expected to jump after next season so buying him out is a no-brainer imo

f*** Hextall for all eternity. Sorry, had to vent.

 

[Peat]

I was very happy with him defensively and I was fairly happy with his chance generation relative to his usage. He got 67.7% D-zone starts at ES here, so it's not fair to ask him to generate chances like the top 6 do. Not to mention the quality of linemates.
Very unhappy with the end-product like everyone else, of course. But I could definitely see a timeline where he's worth like 3M to the team, should he stick around. The scoring's bound to pickup a bit.
Injuries may give him more time in the top 6.

He'll never become a PP1 fixture, but I think he could be effective there. Could see him being better with distribution than Sid was this year on that half-wall.
28 PPP's in Nashville last season.
Less flashy, more high percentage, careful passing. He makes these dangerous saucer passes down low that I like too.
It's not something our PP typically does, so it kind of throws opponents for a loop.

I'm less bothered about his end product - I regard the focus on individual production over team production as outmoded and believe his individual numbers are due for regression to the mean - than the probability that his on ice possession stats are also due for regression to the mean and when that happens he'll be a liability.

Either the easier competition/lesser minutes/Pens system help him a lot and he's genuinely turned the clock back two and a half seasons... or that was just a small sample thing. What's more likely? Granlund's on ice results were his best relative to team of his entire NHL career and he's only been remotely close to such numbers before. The odds on that being small sample feel really good.

I mean, if they're not, then Granlund will be a useful player here. But having looked closer at the stats... yeesh. They scream unsustainble.

 

[Giskard]

I'm prepared to be wrong, but I don't think Granlund needs a buyout. We won't be able to get a 2nd back, that was an overpayment, but a team out there would be interested in Granlund for a bag of pucks. Worst case you retain a million, which is still better over the long term than a buyout.

Of course if you can dump him for future consideration with retention and no high draft picks, go for it, but if there are no takers, buying him out should be in order.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Of course if you can dump him for future consideration with retention and no high draft picks, go for it, but if there are no takers, buying him out should be in order.

I just look at it with numbers. Ask yourself, "to what AAV do I think he'll perform the next 2 years if he stayed?" Compare that to his 5M cap hit. Whatever the difference is in each year, you project that onto the pick(s) you'd trade to unload him.
So let's say people feel he'll play like a 2 mil player in both seasons. What would you normally be comfortable with dealing to acquire a 3 mil value player for 2 years, if it came at no penalty to your cap?
I say that because in this case you were gonna lose that 3M value anyway, if you kept him. It's a direct net gain, assuming you use the cap wisely.

 

[canadianguy77]

Rust even-strength TOI (lines):
503 minutes with Crosby
443 minutes with Malkin

It only took GCRak not scoring a point for a game for Sullivan to put a Rust back for many scoreless games. You watched the games and know this.

 

[Zbynek]

Of course if you can dump him for future consideration with retention and no high draft picks, go for it, but if there are no takers, buying him out should be in order.

Exactly. In either case I'd rather take a crack at someone else in the 3.2 million range than play Granlund on the 3rd line where he clearly doesn't belong.

Though, I have a sneaking suspicion he stays in Pittsburgh and replaces Zuck.

If Zuck does move on, I'd much rather get a guy like Tomas Tatar to replace his production and bring some two-way game. Tatar-Geno-Rust wouldn't be bad (or Tatar-Geno-Rakell). And again that's the same situation where if we get a guy like that, we're better off dumping Granlund or even buying him out if no one bites.

 

[Giskard]

Exactly. In either case I'd rather take a crack at someone else in the 3.2 million range than play Granlund on the 3rd line where he clearly doesn't belong.

Though, I have a sneaking suspicion he stays in Pittsburgh and replaces Zuck.

If Zuck does move on, I'd much rather get a guy like Tomas Tatar to replace his production and bring some two-way game. Tatar-Geno-Rust wouldn't be bad (or Tatar-Geno-Rakell). And again that's the same situation where if we get a guy like that, we're better off dumping Granlund or even buying him out if no one bites.

I was looking at CapFriendly and Granlund is even in the Popular Buyout column ...

If we want to compete next season we have to dump a dead weight like Granlund. I would prefer to lose cap space before having him still on the roster.

At this point it's just damage control.

And still hoping that Carter develop same sort of equipment allergic for one year, but at least he can still be useful in some kind of 12th/13th depth player if his minutes are managed on the lower end side. But if he'll still be our 3rd line center don't even bother to buyout Granlund and tank for good.

 

[Zbynek]

I was looking at CapFriendly and Granlund is even in the Popular Buyout column ...

If we want to compete next season we have to dump a dead weight like Granlund. I would prefer to lose cap space before having him still on the roster.

At this point it's just damage control.

And still hoping that Carter develop same sort of equipment allergic for one year, but at least he can still be useful in some kind of 12th/13th depth player if his minutes are managed on the lower end side. But if he'll still be our 3rd line center don't even bother to buyout Granlund and tank for good.

Yes. As bad, slow, and defensively irresponsible as Carter is these days, he can still somehow provide value to this lineup as a 4C depth scoring + faceoff guy. For the money it sucks but at least it's only one more year.

But with Granlund his presence just makes no sense, there is zero fit for him since the day Sleepy traded for him. With an opening in the top-6 maybe Sully plays him there but I don't see that working out for the next 2 years.

If the new GM can handle the Granlund situation AND acquire a new goalie at the draft or before UFA, I will be hopeful headed into next season. But my gut feeling is since he won't return anything valuable, we'll just hold onto him as a top-6 backup plan if Zuck walks.

Re: Zuck. Checking UFA he's the highest scoring winger on the market this year. Add in his physicality and intangibles, you gotta think someone will offer him some money. So Pens really need to make a plan for LW2.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

I asked on the HFPens Discord server, but what are peoples' thoughts on the goalie situation?

I want to move on from both Jarry and CDS. But I'd begrudgingly keep CDS dependent upon the new starter.

 

[Deport Ogie]

I asked on the HFPens Discord server, but what are peoples' thoughts on the goalie situation?

I want to move on from both Jarry and CDS. But I'd begrudgingly keep CDS dependent upon the new starter.

I agree with this. I think emotionally I'd rather say move on from both but objectively, CDS is a fair NHL backup given the cost. If you keep him, you need to be able to rely on your new 1A to start around 65 plus however because I would not want to see CDS go for more than 15-20. At absolute max.

 

[Epic Neal Time]

Best case to me is if you can convince Jarry to take a repeat prove it 1 yr 3.5M deal and acquire a true 1B via trade (Vejmelka?).

I bet there's a better deal for Jarry in FA though.

I just don't like the alternatives. Are we really going to bet on Hill or Korpisalo at 3M+? I genuinely think Jarry is the better bet. In a true tandem you can limit his GP.

I'm not giving Jarry term though unless it's sub 3M which is impossible.

If you get a true #1 (Hellebuyck/Saros tier) you keep DeSmith

If you get a 1A (Korpisalo/Vejmelka/Vladar/Jarry/Hill tier) you improve on DeSmith and get a 1B.

Fine with any of those at the end of the day.

 

[Sideline]

Best case to me is if you can convince Jarry to take a repeat prove it 1 yr 3.5M deal and acquire a true 1B via trade (Vejmelka?).

I bet there's a better deal for Jarry in FA though.

I just don't like the alternatives. Are we really going to bet on Hill or Korpisalo at 3M+? I genuinely think Jarry is the better bet. In a true tandem you can limit his GP.

I'm not giving Jarry term though unless it's sub 3M which is impossible.

If you get a true #1 (Hellebuyck/Saros tier) you keep DeSmith

If you get a 1A (Korpisalo/Vejmelka/Vladar/Jarry/Hill tier) you improve on DeSmith and get a 1B.

Fine with any of those at the end of the day.

There just aren't enough good goalies in the world. Someone is going to offer Jarry too much for too long because he's shown stretches of better than average play.

 

[Andy99]

There just aren't enough good goalies in the world. Someone is going to offer Jarry too much for too long because he's shown stretches of better than average play.

Let’s hope it’s not our new POHO lol