Salary Cap: Penguins Salary Cap Thread: We suck again summer edition

[TheGoldenJet]

I will agree with this but will also take on the opinion of Emp that suggests he NEVER would have become what he is now with Seattle, here. Never. He would have been exactly who he was here had we kept him.

We don’t know this for sure.

 

[TheGoldenJet]

Sign Barbashev AND Zucker and you almost sort of have an identity.

Only if it’s a 1 year contract for Zucker.

 

[Gurglesons]

We don’t know this for sure.

Sullivan’s usage of him when healthy tells us that for sure.

 

[The GM]

You mean 46 points Rust? The guy that was arguably our best defensive forward since New Year's? Him?
Yeah I'm fine with Zucker turning into that. That's what players of his price range in his role provide.

No, it wasn't a coincidence. It was a core muscle injury healing over the summer, allowing him to skate properly again the following year and get confidence off that. The effort level was always there with Zucker.
The "contract year" effort thing is a fallacy a lot of the time. Heinen had one. Kap had one last year. Blueger had one this year. Dumoulin had one this year.
It didn't help their performance at all.

Dumo had a career year offensively. People need to be patient when a 30+ year old is making the transition from a defensive dman to an offensive dman. I think dumo should get a standard 6x6 deal and we may have the next Karlson on our hands

 

[DesertedPenguin]

Speaking of, has he been playing in Vegas?

He's been a healthy scratch the entire playoffs.

 

[BusinessGoose]

There's no way the pittsburgh penguins save this shit by signing Barbashev and bertuzzi

Just no way

This team doesn't ever land that

 

[AuroraBorealis]

I don't know why you're convinced it's a lock we'll get 2 good years out of Zucker. Last year was the first year we actually got a good year out of him. Before that he was a combination of injured/missing games and not producing like a top six forward.

So my fear with Zucker isn't even whether he'll be worth his money in Year 4 and Year 5 of the contract, it's whether he'll be worth his money in Year 1 and Year 2 when Sid and Geno can still play at a high level.

Because the thing is we can't afford to have him drop to being a 18-20 goal, 35-40 point guy. The entire reason him and Geno worked last year was because Zucker produced at an almost 30 goal, 50 point pace. Dropping 10 goals from that total isn't something I want to see back, especially when you factor in age and injury history on top of that.

Nobody is gonna come here and pop 30 goals in a strictly PP2 role playing with 37 y/o Malkin, especially if they get no ENG opportunities like JZ did. Even 25 is unlikely. Odds are they get hurt, just like everyone we bring.
Rakell reached 30 because he played on the top unit for like 60 games.
Zucker was top 10 in the league in 5v5 goals. Of course he's gonna regress!
But will his replacement be better?

Ages 31 and 32 don't mean what they used to in hockey circles. I think it's pretty reasonable to expect good performance now if he's healthy. I don't think it's a lock, but at least we have some answers with him vs the unknown we'd bring in. We know that he's figured it out with Malkin already. We know that he meshed with Rust. We know that he gets along with the coach and he's important for the room and the bench. His injury that caused problems here fully healed. It's behind him. It's not worth talking about anymore.

 

[SEALBound]

Nobody is gonna come here and pop 30 goals in a strictly PP2 role playing with 37 y/o Malkin, especially if they get no ENG opportunities like JZ did. Even 25 is unlikely. Odds are they get hurt, just like everyone we bring.
Rakell reached 30 because he played on the top unit for like 60 games.
Zucker was top 10 in the league in 5v5 goals. Of course he's gonna regress!
But will his replacement be better?

Ages 31 and 32 don't mean what they used to in hockey circles. I think it's pretty reasonable to expect good performance now if he's healthy. I don't think it's a lock, but at least we have some answers with him vs the unknown we'd bring in. We know that he's figured it out with Malkin already. We know that he meshed with Rust. We know that he gets along with the coach and he's important for the room and the bench. His injury that caused problems here fully healed. It's behind him. It's not worth talking about anymore.

I think 25-25 is the expectation for Zucker (or his replacement).

Jake - 40-40
Sid's RW + PP1 - 30+30
Geno's wing - 25+25 with limited PP1 or PP2 time
Geno's 2nd wing - 20+20 with no PP1 and limited PP2 time

Bottom 6 - 20+20
4th line - 10+10

But also depending on who you get, you have to take into account what they are doing away from the puck. Rakell's overall stat line was a little "low" for the play but when you looked at how many goals he helped create due to his forechecking, it becomes less of a requirement. If you're loosely hanging out on a Sunday skate like Rust did the vast majority of the season, then you need to be potting 30-30-60pt to avoid being an issue.

 

[chethejet]

Pens have addition by subtraction in Dumo, a couple 3rd and 4th line plugs, Jarry is a ? mark as to offer or deal or let go. There is so much that is needed and finding size, more speed, grit and fitting them all in to a crap system that sully has lost the last 5 years with just has to end. sully fired or he adjusts. Physical LD, better 3rd line. Carter is one more cap hit but he is done. Grunland cap dump or buyout.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

I think 25-25 is the expectation for Zucker (or his replacement).

Jake - 40-40
Sid's RW + PP1 - 30+30
Geno's wing - 25+25 with limited PP1 or PP2 time
Geno's 2nd wing - 20+20 with no PP1 and limited PP2 time

Bottom 6 - 20+20
4th line - 10+10

If you account for all the ties, Zucker had the 8th most 5v5 goals in the NHL.

He crushed his teammates in 5v5 G/P60, and he played 78 games.
Despite this, he STILL only reached 27 on the season.

See where Jake, Rak, Geno and Rust are? That's a realistic expectation for Zucker at 5v5 if he stays healthy again.
So for him to reach 25 goals like you're asking for, he'd either need to be a PP2 god, or fill in on the top unit for a notable amount of time. He's not getting SHG's or ENG's. He might score a combined handful of 4v4 goals + OTG's.

Like I said, 20 is achievable in an identical role if he's this healthy again. Don't ask for more from him or whoever's replacing him if you're not giving them the usage to do so. This year was an outlier.

But also depending on who you get, you have to take into account what they are doing away from the puck. Rakell's overall stat line was a little "low" for the play but when you looked at how many goals he helped create due to his forechecking, it becomes less of a requirement. If you're loosely hanging out on a Sunday skate like Rust did the vast majority of the season, then you need to be potting 30-30-60pt to avoid being an issue.

Rust was probably our best defensive forward since New Year's (game #37). He was certainly better than Zucker defensively in totality, and there's a strong case to be made that he edged out Rakell in the end. Rak regressed defensively at the time where Rust started surging.
Rust was +20 better than Rakell over those 45 games. His goal differentials with Sid and Geno ended up above Rak's.
He didn't end up having as terrible of a season as you claim. He was probably our best PK'er too...something that Zucker can't and won't do.

The board just kept clinging to early season narratives forever, and it brainwashed the users here. There is good reason to expect a bounceback from Rust, both in shooting % and a higher average level of 2-way play.

Nobody is scoring 30-30 with the same usage that Rust and Zucker had. That's asking for that winger to be a superstar at 5v5. Forget it!

 

[Ulf5]

If there was any way to pry Vejmelka and any one of the Yotes young forwards off them… man would that move do wonders. And by one, I mean impactful. (Schmaltz, Crouse, Maccelli)

I would do '25 1st, the Russian goalie, POJ or Smith since they'll have to clear waivers for Crouse and Vejmelka. Schmaltz scores a lot more but had 60% oz starts and seems to miss more time than Crouse.
Conversely, Crouse has 60% dz starts and probably has more to offer if paired with Sid or Evgeni. And is cheaper to boot.

 

[Ulf5]

View attachment 704450
If you account for all the ties, Zucker had the 8th most 5v5 goals in the NHL.

View attachment 704458
He crushed his teammates in 5v5 G/P60, and he played 78 games.
Despite this, he STILL only reached 27 on the season.

See where Jake, Rak, Geno and Rust are? That's a realistic expectation for Zucker at 5v5 if he stays healthy again.
So for him to reach 25 goals like you're asking for, he'd either need to be a PP2 god, or fill in on the top unit for a notable amount of time. He's not getting SHG's or ENG's. He might score a combined handful of 4v4 goals + OTG's.

Like I said, 20 is achievable in an identical role if he's this healthy again. Don't ask for more from him or whoever's replacing him if you're not giving them the usage to do so. This year was an outlier.


Rust was probably our best defensive forward since New Year's (game #37). He was certainly better than Zucker defensively in totality, and there's a strong case to be made that he edged out Rakell in the end. Rak regressed defensively at the time where Rust started surging.
Rust was +20 better than Rakell over those 45 games. His goal differentials with Sid and Geno ended up above Rak's.
He didn't end up having as terrible of a season as you claim. He was probably our best PK'er too...something that Zucker can't and won't do.

The board just kept clinging to early season narratives forever, and it brainwashed the users here. There is good reason to expect a bounceback from Rust, both in shooting % and a higher average level of 2-way play.

Nobody is scoring 30-30 with the same usage that Rust and Zucker had. That's asking for that winger to be a superstar at 5v5. Forget it!

Thing people overlook with Zucker is that last season's production was right in line with his career averages. But his goals per game was slightly higher. That wasn't contract year production but normal production for the most part.
However, he's hitting the age where a natural decline will start at any time. Could be next season. Could be 3 years from now.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Thing people overlook with Zucker is that last season's production was right in line with his career averages. But his goals per game was slightly higher. That wasn't contract year production but normal production for the most part.
However, he's hitting the age where a natural decline will start at any time. Could be next season. Could be 3 years from now.

The 5v5 points per 60 mins were about 15% better than his career average.
The 5v5 goals per 60 mins were about 20% better than his career average.
He also had the health on his side, which may not be the case next year.

The good news for us is that while he had a very good shooting %, it's not some insane outlier that can't be replicated, especially if he gets PP1 minutes. Easier to convert there.

The age concerns me a little bit, but I'll put my faith in sports science. NHL'ers at ages 31-33 in 2023 has a different meaning than what it had in 1993. Players doing more at older ages all the time across all sports now.
He was still skating very well last year, and that's the foundation for a lot of offense in hockey.

 

[Ulf5]

The 5v5 points per 60 mins were about 15% better than his career average.
The 5v5 goals per 60 mins were about 20% better than his career average.
He also had the health on his side, which may not be the case next year.

The good news for us is that while he had a very good shooting %, it's not some insane outlier that can't be replicated, especially if he gets PP1 minutes. Easier to convert there.

The age concerns me a little bit, but I'll put my faith in sports science. NHL'ers at ages 31-33 in 2023 has a different meaning than what it had in 1993. Players doing more at older ages all the time across all sports now.
He was still skating very well last year, and that's the foundation for a lot of offense in hockey.

I certainly wasn't trying to refute your post. I was just specifically referring to gpg, apg and ppg averages.
.35 gpg, .27 apg, .62 ppg last season
.29 gpg, .25 apg, .54 ppg career
So 4.92 more goals over a full season above his norm. Assists were right in line with normal.
Being a thin market, he's probably going to be offered too much for the gamble of his health holding up. At least too much for our numerous needs to take on.

 

[Jacob]

Dumo overall had a good year but if it's 23 year old Ty Smith at like less than 1 million vs. Dumo at 3-4 million I'd like to see how Smith does.

 

[vikingGoalie]

our number one thing should be trying to get younger and faster. all you have to do is watch the teams still in the hunt to know this.
it's somewhat bemusing how many former penguins are having big roles on other teams. especially considering what we got in return for them. sure you don't win ever trade, but sure seems like our batting average in this regard was abysmal.

(edit 1A is better goal tending, but right there is faster and younger, take some pressure off the 35+ year olds)

 

[SEALBound]

View attachment 704450
If you account for all the ties, Zucker had the 8th most 5v5 goals in the NHL.

View attachment 704458
He crushed his teammates in 5v5 G/P60, and he played 78 games.
Despite this, he STILL only reached 27 on the season.

See where Jake, Rak, Geno and Rust are? That's a realistic expectation for Zucker at 5v5 if he stays healthy again.
So for him to reach 25 goals like you're asking for, he'd either need to be a PP2 god, or fill in on the top unit for a notable amount of time. He's not getting SHG's or ENG's. He might score a combined handful of 4v4 goals + OTG's.

Like I said, 20 is achievable in an identical role if he's this healthy again. Don't ask for more from him or whoever's replacing him if you're not giving them the usage to do so. This year was an outlier.


Rust was probably our best defensive forward since New Year's (game #37). He was certainly better than Zucker defensively in totality, and there's a strong case to be made that he edged out Rakell in the end. Rak regressed defensively at the time where Rust started surging.
Rust was +20 better than Rakell over those 45 games. His goal differentials with Sid and Geno ended up above Rak's.
He didn't end up having as terrible of a season as you claim. He was probably our best PK'er too...something that Zucker can't and won't do.

The board just kept clinging to early season narratives forever, and it brainwashed the users here. There is good reason to expect a bounceback from Rust, both in shooting % and a higher average level of 2-way play.

Nobody is scoring 30-30 with the same usage that Rust and Zucker had. That's asking for that winger to be a superstar at 5v5. Forget it!

Pretty good recap.

Rust certainly held his own on the defensive side of things which is why he got a nice boost in time after McGinn left on the PK. My issue with Rust came much more three forms: Finishing, perceived effort, and "theatrics". There were several Rust fumbled shots, made bad passed, or missing on high-quality chances. On a regular basis, he glided and gave "just enough" effort. And finally, there were several times where games were lost (or at a minimum, big goals were scored) as a result of Rust electing to fall to the ice crying or whining to the ref (in a very literal sense). The lack of effort and focus in his game this past season was very evident. That doesn't mean there weren't times when he played good though. It just means there were times, more often than not, where he didn't play as well as he could have. And when you commit to a guy like Rust at his age with that contract (especially a NMC), you can't afford for him to take most nights off. He can't go 3/4 speed in the top 6 and expect us to make the playoffs. And that wasn't any particular part of the season, that was the entire season. He was very up and down - but again, that doesn't mean there weren't times where he put together good stretch of hockey that made us think he turned the corner. He just reverted back to his mediocre play after awhile and never found the rhythm.

Rust's season is a good example of where you need the balance between the eye test and the analytics. I don't think any one here is going to argue that Rust had a better season than Rakell or was in any way, shape, or form more impactful over the course of the season.

Bottom line, more often that not, the top 6 line that had Rust on it, struggled while the top 6 line that had Rakell was effective. The only time that changed was when those two were swapped.

And I never predicated the 30-30 expectation based on the usage Rust or Zucker had. Rust and Rakell swapped in and out so much that it made it a wash. But if Rakell was glued to Sid's RW and got 1PP time consistently, I don't think 30-30 is unrealistic at all. I mean, seemed relatively easy this year, no? And that was him getting 50/50 PP1 vs PP2 time.

 

[K Fleur]

I have a feeling this is the year Poulin really breaks out into a consistent 3rd line winger.

In the AHL I mean obviously.

 

[SEALBound]

I have a feeling this is the year Poulin really breaks out into a consistent 3rd line winger.

In the AHL I mean obviously.

Honestly...I hope that is the case. I hope he gets himself to that point.

For all intents and purposes, I have written him off as a future NHL player however I'm still rooting for him. Anything we get some him in the NHL is gravy as this point.

Just sucks that Lauzon, Hallander, Bjorkqvist, Hall, Poulin, Broz...all "busting" for us. That's a lot of higher picks for us going *poof* in the recent years.

Imagine if we had another POJ, a Max Tablot, a mini-Hornqvist, a mini-Dumo, and two Rusts in the system...

 

[Sidgeni Malkby]

Thing people overlook with Zucker is that last season's production was right in line with his career averages. But his goals per game was slightly higher. That wasn't contract year production but normal production for the most part.
However, he's hitting the age where a natural decline will start at any time. Could be next season. Could be 3 years from now.

I'd love to replace Zucker with Bertuzzi. The question is what to do if, in our quest to land Bertuzzi, we lose both!

I would rather we sign both, if we can. Zucker $5x5y. Bertuzzi $6x7y. Sure during the decline, Zucker may end up on the 3rd line, but he would bring fire to that line!

Ideally we could try and go younger, but those we would have to trade for.

Tatar is playing 3rd line winger for $4.5M cap hit, so Zucker wouldn't be that far off. Of course this requires: Granlund --> moon

 

[SEALBound]

From the Trade board
Jake+14ov+CDS for Hellebuyck+Kyle Connor+5th+7th. I do this personally.

I'd love to replace Zucker with Bertuzzi. The question is what to do if, in our quest to land Bertuzzi, we lose both!

I would rather we sign both, if we can. Zucker $5x5y. Bertuzzi $6x7y. Sure during the decline, Zucker may end up on the 3rd line, but he would bring fire to that line!

Ideally we could try and go younger, but those we would have to trade for.

Tatar is playing 3rd line winger for $4.5M cap hit, so Zucker wouldn't be that far off. Of course this requires: Granlund --> moon

If we didn't have Granlund, this would be theoretically doable. With him taking $5mil, probably not. Not ensure sure a buyout helps all that much.

You'd need Zucker at like $4mil and Bertz in the 5's.

 

[molon labe]

From the Trade board
Jake+14ov+CDS for Hellebuyck+Kyle Connor+5th+7th. I do this personally.


If we didn't have Granlund, this would be theoretically doable. With him taking $5mil, probably not. Not ensure sure a buyout helps all that much.

You'd need Zucker at like $4mil and Bertz in the 5's.

Absolutely.

-----

Interesting note: Both Matthews and Marner have zero trade protections - until July 1st. At that point they both have full NMC's kicking in. Never knew that. Should they get swept... might be something worth exploring. Both can obviously create offense.

Magical how Toronto can sign those massive deals without NMCs...Minnesota can sign Kaprizov in a similar fashion (NMC final 2 years)...New Jersey with Hischier / Hughes both similar with NMCs halfway through the deal...Sebastian Aho on Carolina with no trade protection whatsoever...

But the Penguins have to give NMC or NTC to every single player they sign. They'll do it again with Zucker and it'll be a death knell for this team. Why the F are they handed out so frequently.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

Absolutely.

-----

Interesting note: Both Matthews and Marner have zero trade protections - until July 1st. At that point they both have full NMC's kicking in. Never knew that. Should they get swept... might be something worth exploring. Both can obviously create offense.

Magical how Toronto can sign those massive deals without NMCs...Minnesota can sign Kaprizov in a similar fashion (NMC final 2 years)...New Jersey with Hischier / Hughes both similar with NMCs halfway through the deal...Sebastian Aho on Carolina with no trade protection whatsoever...

But the Penguins have to give NMC or NTC to every single player they sign. They'll do it again with Zucker and it'll be a death knell for this team. Why the F are they handed out so frequently.

If I'm recalling correctly, NMCs/NTCs aren't allowed until a certain age.

 

[pistolpete11]

From the Trade board
Jake+14ov+CDS for Hellebuyck+Kyle Connor+5th+7th. I do this personally.

This would be pretty interesting.

I imagine this would mean Jets are gong full rebuild which means they'd likely want to flip Jake. Might mean a 3rd team would get involved.

 

[molon labe]

If I'm recalling correctly, NMCs/NTCs aren't allowed until a certain age.

Looks like 25 based on browsing players on Capfriendly (Barkov / McDavid math checked out).

That would have meant this season for Matthews instead of next.