Salary Cap: Penguins Salary Cap Thread: We suck again summer edition

[SEALBound]

His injuries in 2021-22 were a recurring core muscle issue that he didn't have enough time to heal. Once we got eliminated by NYR, he was able to fully recover. That's why he was able to play 78 games this year. This season was proof that that's behind him, and shouldn't trouble us next season.

A 5 year deal or whatever doesn't scare me. Only the first 2 or so are relevant; After that how is his AAV gonna hurt us? Make us lose? Good! We'll be aiming to draft higher at that point anyway, or at least should be.

We need Zucker for these reasons:

A) High percentage shooter - in desperately short supply on a team that can't capitalise on their chances.
B) Established chemistry with Malkin. They've found an understanding of what works for them, at long last. He does the dirty work with the forecheck/retrievals.
C) The dude can still skate. I don't care if he's over 30 if he can still move like a 25 year old for 2 more years.
D) Passionate motivator. He fires up the players and brings the team together. It's very important to have a healthy atmosphere around the team, because the season's a grind.
E) He's almost a lock to be one of our hardest working players throughout the year. The effort was never a concern.
F) He's gonna take a reasonable AAV for what he brings. Probably like 4.5M.

I've thought about it and think we should re-sign him. What winger in free agency is gonna bring more to the team for his cap hit? We don't know if that player will mesh with Malkin, or will find a fit in this organization, with this coach. There'll be a lot of question marks.

Zucker is quite the conundrum for this team right now. He is certainly on the wrong side of 30 and he does play a game that will cause more wear and tear as he ages. That said, the second you let him walk is the exact moment your biggest need becomes exactly what he is, and then you either have to overpay in FA or use assets to trade for one.

I don't hold his two injury-riddled seasons against the way other smooth-brained people do. They weren't nagging, little injuries here and there. They were substantial injuries that required a healing period and once healed, you are at the same risk as anyone else. At this point, I think he's at the same risk of injury as just about anyone.

I think the years become an issue with him. He's going to want the 5-6 years but really, 3 would be about all I would want to go. If he's willing to do a $4mil x 3yrs, that would be excellent. Best case, you get 2-3 years of what we just saw. Worst case, you get 1-2 years and you can put him on the 3rd line.

I imagine some deals might look like:
$5mil x 2yr
$4.75mil x 3yr
$4mil x 4yr
$3.5mil x 5yr

If you get him back a $4mil that leaves $1.5mil in "space" and I think if you combine that with the $4mil from Dumo, we should be able to get 1-2 quality 3rd liners.

 

[Andy99]

Long term investment with what aim? We only care about the next 1-2 years. It's about if Zucker will outperform them during this time.
Do you mean trading them later when we're rebuilding? That's the only reason to be concerned about that.

There's a chance that Bertuzzi or Bunting would provide more than him over these 2 years. I don't think that's a lock or anything though.
Bunting's linemate quality would go down here and he'd take as many penalties as Malkin or more.
Bertuzzi is a very poor defensive player. I think he's gonna cost more than Zuck too.

I think there’s a better chance that 27-28 year old Bertuzzi or Bunting will be better for us next season than 32 year old Zucker whose best stats come only in contract years

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I think Zucker's gonna be back because there's no in-organization alternatives (get outta here with the DOC shit ) and out of organization options will be too expensive. Add to that he's extremely well liked in the room and by Sully--pretty confident he'll return.

 

[Jacob]

Younger FAs are better because they won’t decline as quickly and may retain value longer. You sign Zucker at 5x5, he’s declining soon and retiring at the end of that. You sign Bunting to the same deal, he’ll still be in his early 30s when it’s up.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

We need Zucker for these reasons:

A) High percentage shooter - in desperately short supply on a team that can't capitalise on their chances.

Is he? He shot 13.7% last season and has shot 12.4% over his Penguins' tenure. Put those stats into context of how high scoring was last season, where a lot of players were in the 18% or more range and that's hardly a high percentage shooter.

If anything it just shows how poor the rest of the team was, not how good Zucker is at finishing his chances.

C) The dude can still skate. I don't care if he's over 30 if he can still move like a 25 year old for 2 more years.

The problem is that players can lose a step or two sometimes out of nowhere at that age. And since Zucker's entire game is built on his wheels, that could be disastrous.

F) He's gonna take a reasonable AAV for what he brings. Probably like 4.5M.

I think the problem is we keep throwing $4.5 to $5.5 million at these middling wingers with the idea that it's "decent bargain", but when you add it up we have a collection of 40-50 point guys who don't really have the ability to create for their line and are entirely reliant on their 35+ year old centers to create chances or nothing happens.

I'd rather the Pens actually look to bring in someone who has more ability to drive a line rather than be a complimentary piece, even if you have to pay an extra $1 million to land him. Better to have a $5.5 to $6 million chance generator and offset that with a league minimum vet or rookie on the 4th line over the Pens paying Zucker $4.5 million to be a complimentary piece and a $1.5 million player on the 4th line

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Zucker is quite the conundrum for this team right now. He is certainly on the wrong side of 30 and he does play a game that will cause more wear and tear as he ages. That said, the second you let him walk is the exact moment your biggest need becomes exactly what he is, and then you either have to overpay in FA or use assets to trade for one.

I don't hold his two injury-riddled seasons against the way other smooth-brained people do. They weren't nagging, little injuries here and there. They were substantial injuries that required a healing period and once healed, you are at the same risk as anyone else. At this point, I think he's at the same risk of injury as just about anyone.

I think the years become an issue with him. He's going to want the 5-6 years but really, 3 would be about all I would want to go. If he's willing to do a $4mil x 3yrs, that would be excellent. Best case, you get 2-3 years of what we just saw. Worst case, you get 1-2 years and you can put him on the 3rd line.

I imagine some deals might look like:
$5mil x 2yr
$4.75mil x 3yr
$4mil x 4yr
$3.5mil x 5yr

If you get him back a $4mil that leaves $1.5mil in "space" and I think if you combine that with the $4mil from Dumo, we should be able to get 1-2 quality 3rd liners.

He's definitely not doing 2 or 3 years imo, not at this age. This is his last big contract opportunity, and he just had a healthy, strong season. He's got the leverage now to secure the term.
If he took 2 or 3 years then he'd be in a bad spot at the end of them.
He may be kind with the AAV though.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Is he? He shot 13.7% last season and has shot 12.4% over his Penguins' tenure. Put those stats into context of how high scoring was last season, where a lot of players were in the 18% or more range and that's hardly a high percentage shooter.

If anything it just shows how poor the rest of the team was, not how good Zucker is at finishing his chances.

The problem is that players can lose a step or two sometimes out of nowhere at that age. And since Zucker's entire game is built on his wheels, that could be disastrous.

I think the problem is we keep throwing $4.5 to $5.5 million at these middling wingers with the idea that it's "decent bargain", but when you add it up we have a collection of 40-50 point guys who don't really have the ability to create for their line and are entirely reliant on their 35+ year old centers to create chances or nothing happens.

I'd rather the Pens actually look to bring in someone who has more ability to drive a line rather than be a complimentary piece, even if you have to pay an extra $1 million to land him. Better to have a $5.5 to $6 million chance generator and offset that with a league minimum vet or rookie on the 4th line over the Pens paying Zucker $4.5 million to be a complimentary piece and a $1.5 million player on the 4th line

13.7% was #2 on the team. 12.4% would have been good for 4th. That's how bad the Pens are with the end product.
These are his seasons with the Pens: 16.7%, 13.4%, 7.8% (core muscle injury year), 13.7%
He's definitely one of our best shooters, especially if Rust doesn't bounceback.

There were 15 players in the league that shot over 18% last year, and played 60+ games. 7 of them were not in top 6 roles/PP1, and didn't get the shot volume to prove they can keep it up. They just had fortunate years.
19 guys shot over 17%. You get my point. It's not commonplace and we're unlikely to find a top 6 sniper of that tier of efficiency that also wants to be in Pittsburgh.
Zucker is what we have.

I wouldn't expect any winger to come here and exceed 40-50 points in a PP2 role, especially if they miss a chunk of games. If you want Zucker to reach 60+ then he's gotta be on the first unit and play like 80 games. That's why Rakell reached it. His 5v5 scoring was significantly worse than Zucker's.

Zucker definitely qualified as a line driver this past year, especially with the 25 5v5 goals and creating something out of nothing on the walls with his hustle. I don't expect him to be close to this good again though. He'll need the PP1 time to prevent a big drop-off in production. That'll only happen if there's injuries it seems.

 

[Andy99]

I think Zucker's gonna be back because there's no in-organization alternatives (get outta here with the DOC shit ) and out of organization options will be too expensive. Add to that he's extremely well liked in the room and by Sully--pretty confident he'll return.

If they do, it’s lazy and the FO would have shown no interest in improving this loser team so I will be very disappointed …and I mean that for all their UFAs

 

[eXile3]

Bunting will want some ridiculous contract and will be 28 before next season. He could start declining before 30 but almost certainly will after.

Stay away from UFA. Pick up the bargain guys after the chaos is over. If we’re going to try and take another run it will need to be through trades.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

If they do, it’s lazy and the FO would have shown no interest in improving this loser team so I will be very disappointed …and I mean that for all their UFAs

Can't be disappointed if you expect it. You're kicking around ideas like Hellebuyck, Saros, Meier, Bertuzzi. Buddy, you're gonna have a long f***ing summer.

 

[Andy99]

Can't be disappointed if you expect it. You're kicking around ideas like Hellebuyck, Saros, Meier, Bertuzzi. Buddy, you're gonna have a long f***ing summer.

If they’re serious about improving the team, I expect better players brought in than our UFAs…also would be open to trading Jake if we can get a good young player back

 

[TheGoldenJet]

@Andy99 I am with you!

Get Zucker outta here, let’s see those upgrades! (Dummy is probably right about little actually happening though…)

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

If they’re serious about improving the team, I expect better players brought in than our UFAs…also would be open to trading Jake if we can get a good young player back

Every single summer people around here are like 1000x as locked in and ambitious about dramatic changes that improve the team. Every single summer reality hits that this organization thinks far too highly of itself.

And I'm like the head of the "trade Jake" committee, but you're not getting a better fit, more production, or a younger player with his kind of potential. If/when you move him, you can't even keep up this years-long bullshit masquerade of competing anymore. You send him out for a haul of futures; picks/prospects/young roster players--but you're definitely packing it up and turning the page.

 

[Andy99]

Every single summer people around here are like 1000x as locked in and ambitious about dramatic changes that improve the team. Every single summer reality hits that this organization thinks far too highly of itself.

And I'm like the head of the "trade Jake" committee, but you're not getting a better fit, more production, or a younger player with his kind of potential. If/when you move him, you can't even keep up this years-long bullshit masquerade of competing anymore. You send him out for a haul of futures; picks/prospects/young roster players--but you're definitely packing it up and turning the page.

I’m expecting a young player back who isn’t as established a producer as Jake but has the potential to be very good top six forward or top four D…a prospect who’s finished His first year in the NHL or is ready for regular NHL duty…if you’re not getting someone like Dawson Mercer for Jake, then you don’t trade him this summer..if we’re bad enough, as I suspect, this coming season, we can always trade him at the deadline for a first+

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I’m expecting a young player back who isn’t as established a producer as Jake but has the potential to be very good top six forward or top four D…a prospect who’s finished His first year in the NHL or is ready for regular NHL duty…if you’re not getting someone like Dawson Mercer for Jake, then you don’t trade him this summer..if we’re bad enough, as I suspect, this coming season, we can always trade him at the deadline for a first+

If you don't trade Jake before the deadline, you're locking into like a 6 or 7 year deal, with an AAV of like $9 million, and a crazy restrictive NMC.

Meaning, if you don't trade him before the deadline, you're not ever trading him, let alone for anything worth a damn. Dude's a must-move between now and March 2024 imo.

-edit- Also, the Devils wouldn't trade Mercer as part of the Meier package. I highly doubt they would be willing to part with a ~30g, ~60pt kid who is only 21 for a soon to be 29 year old Jake and his impending colossal deal.

 

[Andy99]

If you don't trade Jake before the deadline, you're locking into like a 6 or 7 year deal, with an AAV of like $9 million, and a crazy restrictive NMC.

Meaning, if you don't trade him before the deadline, you're not ever trading him, let alone for anything worth a damn. Dude's a must-move between now and March 2024 imo.

-edit- Also, the Devils wouldn't trade Mercer as part of the Meier package. I highly doubt they would be willing to part with a ~30g, ~60pt kid who is only 21 for a soon to be 29 year old Jake and his impending colossal deal.

Meier is going to be 28, so only a year younger than Jake…and yeah, Jake is the better offensive player although you can debate whether he has a better all around game…

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Meier is going to be 28, so only a year younger than Jake…and yeah, Jake is the better offensive player although you can debate whether he has a better all around game…

Realistically, Meier's probably cost himself a ton of money with how he's played for the Devils. So much so that they might be able to keep him around at a relatively cheaper cost than previously thought. I don't think he hits UFA, but if he does, he'll be getting insane money because of how lackluster the pool for forwards is. Guys like Bertuzzi, Zucker and Bunting are the tops of the class if Meier doesn't hit the open market. And Jake's all-around game is hot coiled dogshit. Kessel-bad away from the puck.

 

[Gurglesons]

Realistically, Meier's probably cost himself a ton of money with how he's played for the Devils. So much so that they might be able to keep him around at a relatively cheaper cost than previously thought. I don't think he hits UFA, but if he does, he'll be getting insane money because of how lackluster the pool for forwards is. Guys like Bertuzzi, Zucker and Bunting are the tops of the class if Meier doesn't hit the open market. And Jake's all-around game is hot coiled dogshit. Kessel-bad away from the puck.

He’s guaranteed 9 mil if he wants it.

 

[Pens x]

Small sample size playoff stats, with him playing in the Bruins top 6? He'd be playing with 37 year old Malkin here.
You should change your focus to regular season contributions that get them into the damn playoffs at this point.
The Pens are a bubble-out team right now. It's 2023.

Worrying about playoff production is an outdated luxury in our situation. This team's dying.

Interesting. Because when I said Hextall was a dumbass for not protecting McCann in the expansion draft, I was told he sucked in the playoffs, but now the playoffs don’t matter?

Which one is it?

 

[Empoleon8771]

The year is 2060 and HFPens fans on their death beds are still screaming about letting McCann go and not signing Kulemin.

 

[Gurglesons]

Interesting. Because when I said Hextall was a dumbass for not protecting McCann in the expansion draft, I was told he sucked in the playoffs, but now the playoffs don’t matter?

Which one is it?

The funny part is McCann and Marino both have sucked in the playoffs like they always do!

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

At least the fan base has gotten over Matt Moulson. Maybe.

 

[Empoleon8771]

It's so weird to be complaining about McCann right now as he's both injured while also not playing well before getting injured. He and Beniers were both invisible before McCann went down to injury and he hasn't been back since then.

He's just a consistent playoff dud. He didn't look good when he was healthy in round 1 and hasn't even played since the Makar hit. The Kraken called up an unknown, undrafted LW named Kartye after McCann got injured and he has had way bigger of an impact in the playoffs than McCann had when healthy.

I was at the Kraken watch party for game 2 on Thursday and Kartye had an absolutely filthy snipe to make it 2-1 in the 2nd. That goal alone gives him more career playoff goals than McCann has.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I'll die on the hill that McCann should've been protected over Carter. But not because I was a fan of McCann, because I think you could've gotten something better than an absolutely worthless 7th rounder and a C-tier prospect without the expansion draft deadline looming over the trade talks.

 

[SEALBound]

Younger FAs are better because they won’t decline as quickly and may retain value longer. You sign Zucker at 5x5, he’s declining soon and retiring at the end of that. You sign Bunting to the same deal, he’ll still be in his early 30s when it’s up.

Boy, I'd be extremely hesitant to put any confidence in the statement that Bunting would be any better value than Zucker. Zucker has a long history of quality production. Bunting has two seasons with top 6 guys in their prime. I get that Bunting is a couple of years younger but I think at what both will command in FA, I'd take my chances with Zucker.

He's definitely not doing 2 or 3 years imo, not at this age. This is his last big contract opportunity, and he just had a healthy, strong season. He's got the leverage now to secure the term.
If he took 2 or 3 years then he'd be in a bad spot at the end of them.
He may be kind with the AAV though.

That's why I said it's a conundrum. It's seemingly a no-win situation unless you get lucky with a good value deal. There just aren't many good FA options...

@Andy99 I am with you!

Get Zucker outta here, let’s see those upgrades! (Dummy is probably right about little actually happening though…)

Who are the upgrades? Name names.