Salary Cap: Penguins Salary Cap Thread: We suck again summer edition

[Gurglesons]

Why are you including Granlund's 2022-2023 numbers when I specifically said that this is what he would have gotten if he was a free agent last off-season?

Granlund had 36 ES points and 65 points overall in 2021-2022. Strome had 39 ES points and 54 points in 2021-2022. Granlund absolutely would have been paid similarly to Strome last off-season. Including his terrible season this year would bring him down closer to what Hoffman is making at $3.5 million a year.



Literally no one said this.

You're trying to argue people are undervaluing Granlund's perceived value around the league because other team's have bad contracts.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Why are you including Granlund's 2022-2023 numbers when I specifically said that this is what he would have gotten if he was a free agent last off-season?

Granlund had 36 ES points and 65 points overall in 2021-2022. Strome had 39 ES points and 54 points in 2021-2022. Granlund absolutely would have been paid similarly to Strome last off-season. Including his terrible season this year would bring him down closer to what Hoffman is making at $3.5 million a year.

I was under the impression that we were trading Granlund based upon what his value was now, not a year ago.

After he was widely cited as the nail in Hextall's coffin and moving for him cost an AGM his job on top of it.

 

[Empoleon8771]

His production isn't that good though. Any halfway competent offensive player could put up a 50 point pace given top six minutes and loads of powerplay time.

People pump the tires of guys all the time who put up points primarily because of opportunity. Jeff Carter could probably come close to 50 points if Mike Sullivan gave him nothing but top six minutes and #1 pp time. And I don't think any of us would mistake Jeff Carter with being good.

I think this is dramatically underrating the skillset required to actually produce points in the NHL.

You're trying to argue people are undervaluing Granlund's perceived value around the league because other team's have bad contracts.

No I am literally not doing that. You just can't read.

Someone else asked me what I think Granlund would get as a UFA. So my response was what I think he'd be getting as a UFA, while saying that he would have gotten more last off-season if he was a free agent and used Strome as an example of what I thought Granlund would have gotten.

I was under the impression that we were trading Granlund based upon what his value was now, not a year ago.

After he was widely cited as the nail in Hextall's coffin and moving for him cost an AGM his job on top of it.

Can you guys not read or something? Someone else asked me what I thought Granlund would get as a UFA. I said "I think he'd get a similar deal to Hoffman if he was a UFA, but if he was a UFA a year ago after his 64 point season, he would have gotten a similar deal to Strome".

 

[Gurglesons]

I think this is dramatically underrating the skillset required to actually produce points in the NHL.



No I am literally not doing that. You just can't read.

Someone else asked me what I think Granlund would get as a UFA. So my response was what I think he'd be getting as a UFA, while saying that he would have gotten more last off-season if he was a free agent and used Strome as an example of what I thought Granlund would have gotten.



Can you guys not read or something? Someone else asked me what I thought Granlund would get as a UFA. I said "I think he'd get a similar deal to Hoffman if he was a UFA, but if he was a UFA a year ago after his 64 point season, he'd get a similar deal to Strome".

Salary Cap: - Penguins Salary Cap Thread: We suck again summer edition

This board has really gone galaxy brain on Granlund. This is the same situation as Galchenyuk even if the player type is different. He isn't good enough to be in a good team's top 6, and he's pointless in a bottom 6. He serves little to no actual purpose and the idea that his value can be...

forums.hfboards.com

"I mean, I'm heavily skeptical of any analytical model that puts Bjorkstrand at the 92nd percentile of WAR in the NHL

But back to the point I was making, a better comparison to make on this website's inconsistency is Bjorkstrand vs Garland. I think this website would claim Garland's value is negative while Bjorkstrand's value is positive, despite the two being extremely similar IMO."

 

[ChaosAgent]

Can you guys not read or something? Someone else asked me what I thought Granlund would get as a UFA. I said "I think he'd get a similar deal to Hoffman if he was a UFA, but if he was a UFA a year ago after his 64 point season, he'd get a similar deal to Strome".

Eh, fair.

I think as of now Galchenyuk is his path. At some point you get labeled as "not good enough for top 6 and serves no purpose in bottom 6."
Then you're no longer valued at a fraction of your previous value. Instead you're outside the relevant range because your value has fallen off of a cliff. You're a borderline non-NHLer. I think that is where Granlund actually is right now.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Salary Cap: - Penguins Salary Cap Thread: We suck again summer edition

This board has really gone galaxy brain on Granlund. This is the same situation as Galchenyuk even if the player type is different. He isn't good enough to be in a good team's top 6, and he's pointless in a bottom 6. He serves little to no actual purpose and the idea that his value can be...

forums.hfboards.com

"I mean, I'm heavily skeptical of any analytical model that puts Bjorkstrand at the 92nd percentile of WAR in the NHL

But back to the point I was making, a better comparison to make on this website's inconsistency is Bjorkstrand vs Garland. I think this website would claim Garland's value is negative while Bjorkstrand's value is positive, despite the two being extremely similar IMO."

Literally what the f*** are you talking about.

Someone else asked me what I thought Granlund would get as a UFA. I then said what I thought he'd get as a UFA, with also mentioning that he would have gotten more if he was a free agent last off-season without his bad year this year. Then I said his bad stretch with the Penguins isn't going to bring down his value that dramatically.

 

[Gurglesons]

Literally what the f*** are you talking about.

Someone else asked me what I thought Granlund would get as a UFA. I then said what I thought he'd get as a UFA, with also mentioning that he would have gotten more if he was a free agent last off-season without his bad year this year. Then I said his bad stretch with the Penguins isn't going to bring down his value that dramatically.

Granlund's value is absolute dirt. We will be paying assets to move him and this continuous argument from you that he could have some value or be easy to move or it's just HF logic is absolute insanity.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Granlund's value is absolute dirt. We will be paying assets to move him and this continuous argument from you that he could have some value or be easy to move is absolute insanity.

I honestly think you're just trolling me at this point because you're just flat out not reading what I'm typing.

I'm talking about "value" as in contract value, as in what he'd get in a contract. Which fits the context of the post seeing how I keep talking about what he'd get as a UFA.

Eh, fair.

I think as of now Galchenyuk is his path. At some point you get labeled as "not good enough for top 6 and serves no purpose in bottom 6."
Then you're no longer valued at a fraction of your previous value. Instead you're outside the relevant range because your value has fallen off of a cliff. You're a borderline non-NHLer. I think that is where Granlund actually is right now.

I agree with you that is what Granlund is, but I don't agree that is a "borderline non-NHLer". It's a point producer on a bad team. It's like Mike Hoffman, there are a lot of players like that in the NHL today that are still playing in regular roles.

 

[Gurglesons]

I honestly think you're just trolling me at this point because you're just flat out not reading what I'm typing.

I'm talking about "value" as in contract value, as in what he'd get in a contract. Which fits the context of the post seeing how I keep talking about what he'd get as a UFA.



I agree with you that is what Granlund is, but I don't agree that is a "borderline non-NHLer". It's a point producer on a bad team. It's like Mike Hoffman, there are a lot of players like that in the NHL today that are still playing in regular roles.

And judging "value" on bad UFA contracts is bizarre. It's arbitrary and means nothing.

Pretty much every UFA contract sucks the day it is signed.

 

[Pancakes]

I think this is dramatically underrating the skillset required to actually produce points in the NHL.

It's not. Jeff Carter put up 46 points last year because he got more time and opportunity due to the injuries we had. Evan Rodrigues put up 43 points. Both of those guys probably hit 50 points if Sid/Geno never come back and take their spots in the top six/pp.

Could anyone do it? No, obviously not. But there's a ton of guys who could given the right opportunity. I daresay there's even some AHL star skill guys who could do it.

A lot of these guys don't get the opportunity because coaches tend to want their bottom six to be able to grind or play some type of possession game and top six spots in the league are at a premium so sometimes players like Granlund get squeezed between the margins because they're not quite offensively dominant enough that you want them holding down a top six spot and they aren't grindy enough that you want them in the bottom six.

 

[Empoleon8771]

And judging "value" on bad UFA contracts is bizarre. It's arbitrary and means nothing.

Pretty much every UFA contract sucks the day it is signed.

Okay yeah you're just trolling, you'll have to go to timeout for the day because you're just not reading the posts you're replying to.

Anyway back to an actual discussion, I was looking around at some expectations for a Jarry contract and some of the models have him at lower than I would have expected. AFP Analytics has Jarry's projected contract at 4 years and $4.8 million. If you can keep Jarry for under $5 million a year, you'd have a tough time convincing me to go with another goalie.

First Call: Kenny Pickett adds bulk; Steelers consider veteran pass rusher; salary projections for Penguins' free agents

Wednesday’s “First Call” looks at a veteran pass rusher the Pittsburgh Steelers may attempt to sign. Quarterback Kenny Pickett describes his efforts to bulk up. We’ve got projected salaries for a few free agent Penguins and gambling odds on the next Pens general manager. Plus, Brian Burke has a new

triblive.com

The google sheet is under "projected price" here.

It's not. Jeff Carter put up 46 points last year because he got more time and opportunity due to the injuries we had. Evan Rodrigues put up 43 points. Both of those guys probably hit 50 points if Sid/Geno never come back and take their spots in the top six/pp.

Could anyone do it? No, obviously not. But there's a ton of guys who could given the right opportunity. I daresay there's even some AHL star skill guys who could do it.

A lot of these guys don't get the opportunity because coaches tend to want their bottom six to be able to grind or play some type of possession game and top six spots in the league are at a premium so sometimes players like Granlund get squeezed between the margins because they're not quite offensively dominant enough that you want them holding down a top six spot and they aren't grindy enough that you want them in the bottom six.

And Carter and ERod were terrific in the first half of that year. If they would have played all year like they did in the first half, they would have had a terrific season.

 

[ChaosAgent]

It's not. Jeff Carter put up 46 points last year because he got more time and opportunity due to the injuries we had. Evan Rodrigues put up 43 points. Both of those guys probably hit 50 points if Sid/Geno never come back and take their spots in the top six/pp.

Could anyone do it? No, obviously not. But there's a ton of guys who could given the right opportunity. I daresay there's even some AHL star skill guys who could do it.

A lot of these guys don't get the opportunity because coaches tend to want their bottom six to be able to grind or play some type of possession game and top six spots in the league are at a premium so sometimes players like Granlund get squeezed between the margins because they're not quite offensively dominant enough that you want them holding down a top six spot and they aren't grindy enough that you want them in the bottom six.

NHL games have an ebb and a flow. Crappy teams lose 6-3. Winning teams take their foot off the gas after getting up big. Refs look to even things up through PPs. Look at the point totals of the X-Gen Pens. Bad NHL teams will score and thus some people will get points.

Point producer on a bad team carries very little value. As you said, Jeff Carter could do it easily.

 

[Gurglesons]

Jarry is likely getting 5x5 at minimum if he wants it.

 

[Pancakes]

And Carter and ERod were terrific in the first half of that year. If they would have played all year like they did in the first half, they would have had a terrific season.

They were also getting top six minutes, first line pp time.

Jarry is likely getting 5x5 at minimum if he wants it.

I could honestly see him getting as much as 6-7 if some team is desperate enough. The goalie UFA market is pretty trash and he's definitely the star of the show.

The shine is off here but there's probably at least a few teams who might be willing to throw dollars at him.

 

[Gurglesons]

They were also getting top six minutes, first line pp time.


I could honestly see him getting as much as 6-7 if some team is desperate enough. The goalie UFA market is pretty trash and he's definitely the star of the show.

The shine is off here but there's probably at least a few teams who might be willing to throw dollars at him.

Yeah, I think he settles for the Campbell contract. I see no reason a team wouldn't view him as a player similar to Ullmark who could easily break out and is young enough to get them to the playoffs for the entirety of his contract.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Using AFP Analytics, here are some of the contract projections for players thrown out in here:

Forwards:

-Barbashev: 4 years at $4.2 million AAV
-Bertuzzi: 6 years at $5.3 million AAV
-Bunting: 5 years at $5.3 million AAV
-Compher: 5 years at $5.3 million AAV
-Colton: 3 years at $3 million AAV
-Brown: 4 years at $3.3 million AAV
-Engvall: 4 years at $4.1 million AAV
-O'Reilly: 3 years at $5.5 million AAV
-Rodrigues: 3 years at $3.7 million AAV
-Sheary: 3 years at $3.25 million AAV

Defensemen:

-Dumoulin: 3 years at $4.1 million AAV
-Gavrikov: 5 years at $4.9 million AAV
-Graves: 5 years at $5 million AAV
-Orlov: 5 years at $6.3 million AAV
-Severson: 6 years at $6.1 million AAV

Goalies:

-Andersen: 2 years at $4 million AAV
-Hill: 2 years at $3.3 million AAV
-Jarry: 4 years at $4.8 million AAV
-Korpisalo: 2 years at $2.5 million AAV
-Swayman: 2 years at $3.8 million AAV
-Varlamov: 2 years at $2.7 million AAV

If you can get Jarry and Varlamov for a combined $7.5 million, I'd be extremely happy with that.

They were also getting top six minutes, first line pp time.

Yeah and their play warranted it because they were playing fantastic.

They weren't shit players who were producing solely from being in an elevated role. They were guys who were thriving in that elevated role and were playing great.

 

[Gurglesons]

Using AFP Analytics, here are some of the contract projections for players thrown out in here:

Forwards:

-Bunting: 5 years at $5.25 million AAV
-Compher: 5 years at $5.3 million AAV
-Colton: 3 years at $3 million AAV
-Brown: 4 years at $3.3 million AAV
-Engvall: 4 years at $4.1 million AAV
-O'Reilly: 3 years at $5.5 million AAV
-Rodrigues: 3 years at $3.7 million AAV
-Sheary: 3 years at $3.25 million AAV

Defensemen:

-Dumoulin: 3 years at $4.1 million AAV
-Gavrikov: 5 years at $4.9 million AAV
-Graves: 5 years at $5 million AAV
-Orlov: 5 years at $6.3 million AAV
-Severson: 6 years at $6.1 million AAV

Goalies:

-Andersen: 2 years at $4 million AAV
-Hill: 2 years at $3.3 million AAV
-Jarry: 4 years at $4.8 million AAV
-Korpisalo: 2 years at $2.5 million AAV
-Swayman: 2 years at $3.8 million AAV
-Varlamov: 2 years at $2.7 million AAV

If you can get Jarry and Varlamov for a combined $7.5 million, I'd be extremely happy with that.



Yeah and their play warranted it because they were playing fantastic.

They weren't shit players who were producing solely from being in an elevated role. They were guys who were thriving in that elevated role and were playing great.

A lot of these contracts outside of the forwards look extremely low. Forwards actually look largely high.

Severson. Varlamov. Koprisalo stick out to me.

Feel like Severson gets 7 - 8 mil in UFA.

 

[Empoleon8771]

A lot of these contracts outside of the forwards look extremely low. Forwards actually look largely high.

Severson. Varlamov. Koprisalo stick out to me.

Feel like Severson gets 7 - 8 mil in UFA.

Varlamov and Korpisalo actually seem believable because they haven't played in many games in a while. Varlamov has only played in 23 and 31 games in the last 2 years, he's really solid in those games but he has been Sorokin's backup. Korpisalo played in 39 games this year and 22 games last year, where he was also noticeably bad last year.

That $2.5ish million AAV is also in line with what other journeymen backups like Brian Elliott were getting when they were moving around. Korpisalo may get more because he's a good bit younger and is coming off more of a starter's season, but that prediction seems pretty reasonable for Varlamov.

I'd probably go the over on $2.7 million for Varlamov but I'd take the under if it was $3 million. I think 2 years at $2.75 million, which is the same exact contract Elliott signed with the Flyers in 2017, is a totally reasonable guess for Varlamov.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

Alexander Barabanov from SJS also has that Dubas connection. KD signed him out of the KHL. Could be a nice complimentary piece in the top six. Or as a nice player to anchor the 3rd line.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

Hang onto the 1st, Ty Smith and just buy Granlund out. The dead cap will suck but the team is gonna really suck by then anyways.

Or just play Granlund, sign a shooter to play next to him, and hope for a Zucker like resurgence. Remember when we had to give a first up to get a team to take Zucker?

Honestly, this roster is going to be filled top to bottom with taking lottery pick level chances.

No matter the calls made there will be risks of failure. So many gambles and risks that this team's chances of an actual cup run are not huge.

Not the least of which are does anyone believe that on the most injured team year in year out in the entire NHL for decades that Crosby and Malkin will remain healthy all year again? Not to mention Letang, Jake, the goalies, etc.?

Keeping Ganlund and trying to make him work instead of paying to make him go away seems like the least chancy gamble.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

The answers as to how to approach the goalie situation and perhaps adding a top-4 defenseman are pretty simple and straight forward, albeit potentially difficult to accomplish in reality.

I'm keenly interested in watching how everything plays out as far as rebuilding the bottom-6 and finding a scoring winger for Geno's line.

Dubas has his work cut out for him, for sure.

-edit- I'd keep an eye on the situation in Ottawa with DeBrincat. There's a guy I'd be entirely content with this team throwing every available asset at. Dude posted 66pts and 27 goals in what was universally considered a pretty disappointing year. I'm not saying there's a realistic shot this team has the assets to land him, but that's a guy who could reinvigorate this team and get 'em thinking about one final run while Sid's still playing.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Using the numbers for AFP analytics, this team has $5.6 million if you can trade DeSmith and Granlund.

Guentzel-Crosby-Rakell
Bunting-Malkin-Rust
XXXXXX-Geekie-Brown
O'Connor-Poehling-Carter
Bonino-Nylander

XXXXXX-Letang
Pettersson-Petry
Smith-Rutta
Ruhwedel

Jarry-Varlamov

DeSmith would be an easy sell, you could get a 3rd from someone for him IMO. Maybe do like Granlund and #14 to Chicago for pick #19 and then recoup some of that value back by sending DeSmith for a 3rd.

Beyond the guys I mentioned, this also has Poehling signing for 2 years at $1.6 million a year, which seemed higher than I was expecting. But Geekie was only projected to sign for 2 years at $1.8 million, so the total cost of them ended up pretty close to my old projections ($2.5 million for Geekie and $900k for Poehling).

You can't afford Graves or Gavrikov with this, he's projected to come in at $5 million AAV and the Penguins can't really make that work. I think you'd have to go lighter on Letang's partner and find a lefty version of Rutta for that. Someone like Soucy could make sense for that, but the group of LD beyond the top guys is super thin. This also makes me a bit more hesitant to trade POJ quickly. If you trade POJ and then miss out on Soucy, the next best option is someone like Kulikov.

If you can get Soucy, who's projected to come in at 3 years and $2.5 million a year, you'd have $3 million in cap space to find another 3rd line winger to play with Geekie and Brown. But a LD group of Pettersson, Soucy and Smith looks highly suspect to me.

 

[Gurglesons]

Varlamov and Korpisalo actually seem believable because they haven't played in many games in a while. Varlamov has only played in 23 and 31 games in the last 2 years, he's really solid in those games but he has been Sorokin's backup. Korpisalo played in 39 games this year and 22 games last year, where he was also noticeably bad last year.

That $2.5ish million AAV is also in line with what other journeymen backups like Brian Elliott were getting when they were moving around. Korpisalo may get more because he's a good bit younger and is coming off more of a starter's season, but that prediction seems pretty reasonable for Varlamov.

I'd probably go the over on $2.7 million for Varlamov but I'd take the under if it was $3 million. I think 2 years at $2.75 million, which is the same exact contract Elliott signed with the Flyers in 2017, is a totally reasonable guess for Varlamov.

Korpisalo's performance with the Kings this year puts him in the 3-3.5 mil range IMO. If we can get Korpi at 2.5 that's an absolute steal and we should be going all in on him.

Varlamov I don't see taking less than 4 mil tbh.

Alexander Barabanov from SJS also has that Dubas connection. KD signed him out of the KHL. Could be a nice complimentary piece in the top six. Or as a nice player to anchor the 3rd line.

SJS seems open to a swap of him or LeBanc for Granlund, I'd be down for either.

The answers as to how to approach the goalie situation and perhaps adding a top-4 defenseman are pretty simple and straight forward, albeit potentially difficult to accomplish in reality.

I'm keenly interested in watching how everything plays out as far as rebuilding the bottom-6 and finding a scoring winger for Geno's line.

Dubas has his work cut out for him, for sure.

-edit- I'd keep an eye on the situation in Ottawa with DeBrincat. There's a guy I'd be entirely content with this team throwing every available asset at. Dude posted 66pts and 27 goals in what was universally considered a pretty disappointing year. I'm not saying there's a realistic shot this team has the assets to land him, but that's a guy who could reinvigorate this team and get 'em thinking about one final run while Sid's still playing.

DeBrincat is just shitty Jake Guentzel.

 

[Empoleon8771]

DeBrincat's contract projection is 8 years at $9 million a year. I think you're basically destroying your cap structure and ability to improve areas of your roster you need to improve my trading for him.

At least when Guentzel is due for an extension next off-season, Carter's contract is expiring at the same time. If Guentzel signs for something like that price, you'd at least be able to offset the cost by replacing Carter with a dirt cheap 4th liner.

 

[K Fleur]

Or just play Granlund, sign a shooter to play next to him, and hope for a Zucker like resurgence. Remember when we had to give a first up to get a team to take Zucker?

Honestly, this roster is going to be filled top to bottom with taking lottery pick level chances.

No matter the calls made there will be risks of failure. So many gambles and risks that this team's chances of an actual cup run are not huge.

Not the least of which are does anyone believe that on the most injured team year in year out in the entire NHL for decades that Crosby and Malkin will remain healthy all year again? Not to mention Letang, Jake, the goalies, etc.?

Keeping Ganlund and trying to make him work instead of paying to make him go away seems like the least chancy gamble.

I wish they’d payed to get rid of Zucker like 2 years ago also.

We waited like 3 seasons for him to not be ass and in a contract year he performs and it’s in a year we miss the playoffs so it ultimately didn’t even really matter.

That’s total meh. The last 5 years one of the biggest problems with this franchise is it’s tolerance of meh.