Part XV: Phoenix - the battle of evermore (UPD #443ff 14-Dec agenda/lease links)

[RR]

Interesting. I get the sense that attendance in Glendale is highly influenced by the night of the week, with weekend nights drawing a lot more than mid-week, regardless of the opponent. Do the data bear that out? How does the mix of mid-week vs. weekend games compare between last year and this?

You and your questions. Gimme a few minutes.

 

[CGG]

Glendale mayor defends efforts to keep Phoenix Coyotes...

http://www.azcentral.com/community/glendale/articles/2010/12/10/20101210glendale-mayor-phoenix-coyotes.html

Wow, she's a bright one. Some of Mayor Scruggs's quotes from the article:

What shall we do, lock it up, turn off the lights and then pay the debt on the arena?

Yes. That's exactly what you should do. The debt on the arena is ~ $12 million a year. The Coyotes pay maybe $4 million in rent and other fees. How does subsidizing to the tune of $20 million a year help pay off the debt? Is it not better to forego the $4 million in rent payments and keep the $20 million for yourselves? Did you fail math in high school?

Think of what that would say to the public if we closed the arena.

Exactly. This is what it all boils down to. It's easier to pledge $100 million to subsidize a hockey team than it is for a politician to say "we screwed up when we built an NHL arena in the middle of nowhere".

 

[RR]

Interesting. I get the sense that attendance in Glendale is highly influenced by the night of the week, with weekend nights drawing a lot more than mid-week, regardless of the opponent. Do the data bear that out? How does the mix of mid-week vs. weekend games compare between last year and this?

Day|Game #|Opponent|Attendance|Total Att|Overall Avg||Day|Game #|Opponent|Attendance|Total Att|Overall Avg|% +/-
SAT|1| CLB| 17,532| 17,532| 17,532|| SAT|1| DET | 17,125 | 17,125| 17,125|-2.38%
THU|2| STL | 6,899 |24,431|12,216||THU|2| LAK | 6,706 |23,831|11,916|-2.52%
SAT|3|BOS|9,162|33,593|11,198||SAT|3|CAR|8,189|32,020|10,673|-4.91%
THU|4| DET | 11,938 |45,531|11,383||SAT|4| TBL | 8,171 |40,191|10,048|-13.29%
SAT|5| LAK | 7,968 | 53,499|10,700||WED|5|NAS|6,761|46,952|9,390|9,390|-13.94%
SAT|6| ANA | 6,495 |59,994|9,999|| SAT|6|PIT|14,642|61,594|10,266|2.60%
MON|7| LAK | 5,855 |65,849|9,407||FRI|7|CGY| 11,117|72,711|10,387|9.44%
THU|8|CHI|10,362|76,211| 9,526||SAT|8| STL | 9,412 | 82,123|10,265|7.20%
THU|9|MON|10,064|86,275|9,586||TUE|9|EDM|9,354|91,477|10,164|5.69%
SAT|10|DAL|11,319|97,594|9,759||SAT|10| ANA | 12,708 |104,185| 10,419|6.33%
MON|11| TBL | 9,503 |107,097|9,736||SAT|11| FLA|10,334|114,519|10,411|6.48%
SAT|12|PHI|11,106|118,203|9,850||THU|12|MIN| 7,749|122,268|10,189|3.32%

 

[cbcwpg]

You are indeed correct. If the coyotes could play all their games on saturday and play teams like pens,wings,leafs,philly and not teams like florida on sat they could probably almost break even.

Maybe the original 6 teams should only play road games in non-traditional markets.

 

[AllByDesign]

I remember someone saying something about a curveball the other day... who was that again?...

 

[cbcwpg]

Originally Posted by Elaine Scruggs
Think of what that would say to the public if we closed the arena.

Would the public even notice?

 

[cheswick]

Originally Posted by Elaine Scruggs
Think of what that would say to the public if we closed the arena.

Would the public even notice?

I like how they would have to close the arena if the Coyotes 40 dates arent filled. Cause no arenas exist without a major tenant. Not to mention the liklihood of a minor team relocating there.

 

[RR]

And anticipating Whileee's next question:

2009-10 weekday average 9,104 (vs. DET, CHI, MON, STL, LA, CLB)
2010-11 weekday average 7,643 (vs LA, NAS, EDM, MIN)

2009-10 weekend average 10,597 (vs BOS, PHI, CLB, LA, ANA, DAL)
2010-11 weekend average 11,462 (vs DET, PIT, CGY, FLA, CAR, ANA, TBL, STL)

 

[cbcwpg]

I like how they would have to close the arena if the Coyotes 40 dates arent filled. Cause no arenas exist without a major tenant. Not to mention the liklihood of a minor team relocating there.

Exactly. Its funny that Winnipeg, without NHL hockey, can have an arena that is the 3rd busiest in Canada and have no problem making money, yet Glendale has to turn out the lights on thier arena in the Coyotes leave.

The bottom line fact is that this whole mess has NOTHING to do with the NHL. Its all about losing 40 dates ( doesn't matter if it is hockey or wrestling or whatever ) without even going through the process to see if they could be replaced. With proper arena management Glendale wouldn't even know the team is gone.

 

[Whileee]

Day|Game #|Opponent|Attendance|Total Att|Overall Avg||Day|Game #|Opponent|Attendance|Total Att|Overall Avg|% +/-
SAT|1| CLB| 17,532| 17,532| 17,532|| SAT|1| DET | 17,125 | 17,125| 17,125|-2.38%
THU|2| STL | 6,899 |24,431|12,216||THU|2| LAK | 6,706 |23,831|11,916|-2.52%
SAT|3|BOS|9,162|33,593|11,198||SAT|3|CAR|8,189|32,020|10,673|-4.91%
THU|4| DET | 11,938 |45,531|11,383||SAT|4| TBL | 8,171 |40,191|10,048|-13.29%
SAT|5| LAK | 7,968 | 53,499|10,700||WED|5|NAS|6,761|46,952|9,390|9,390|-13.94%
SAT|6| ANA | 6,495 |59,994|9,999|| SAT|6|PIT|14,642|61,594|10,266|2.60%
MON|7| LAK | 5,855 |65,849|9,407||FRI|7|CGY| 11,117|72,711|10,387|9.44%
THU|8|CHI|10,362|76,211| 9,526||SAT|8| STL | 9,412 | 82,123|10,265|7.20%
THU|9|MON|10,064|86,275|9,586||TUE|9|EDM|9,354|91,477|10,164|5.69%
SAT|10|DAL|11,319|97,594|9,759||SAT|10| ANA | 12,708 |104,185| 10,419|6.33%
MON|11| TBL | 9,503 |107,097|9,736||SAT|11| FLA|10,334|114,519|10,411|6.48%
SAT|12|PHI|11,106|118,203|9,850||THU|12|MIN| 7,749|122,268|10,189|3.32%

The data bear out the weekend bump.

2009-10:
FRI/SAT (6 games) --- 10,597
Other days (6 games) -- 9,104 (including Det, Chi and Montreal)

2010-11:
FRI/SAT (8 games) --- 11,462 (including Det, Pitt,
Other days (4 games) --- 7,643

So far, this year's attendance is increased largely because of more weekend games than last year (8 vs. 6). If you were adjust this year's attendance to take a weighted average of weekend and weekday games to be the same as last year at this time (i.e. 6 weekend and 6 weekday), then the adjusted comparison would be:

2009-10: 9,850
2010-11: 9,552

(a 3% drop from last year after 12 games)

So it seems that the apparent increase this year is due to better scheduling (i.e. more weekend games) as much as anything else.

My main point is that you can't really assess attendance trends by simply looking at year-over-year comparisons without considering multiple variables.

 

[Whileee]

And anticipating Whileee's next question:

2009-10 weekday average 9,104 (vs. DET, CHI, MON, STL, LA, CLB)
2010-11 weekday average 7,643 (vs LA, NAS, EDM, MIN)

2009-10 weekend average 10,597 (vs BOS, PHI, CLB, LA, ANA, DAL)
2010-11 weekend average 11,462 (vs DET, PIT, CGY, FLA, CAR, ANA, TBL, STL)

I got it... see above. Obviously, the visiting team is an important variable in Glendale attendance.

 

[Whileee]

Exactly. Its funny that Winnipeg, without NHL hockey, can have an arena that is the 3rd busiest in Canada and have no problem making money, yet Glendale has to turn out the lights on thier arena in the Coyotes leave.

The bottom line fact is that this whole mess has NOTHING to do with the NHL. Its all about losing 40 dates ( doesn't matter if it is hockey or wrestling or whatever ) without even going through the process to see if they could be replaced. With proper arena management Glendale wouldn't even know the team is gone.

Maybe Mayor Scruggs and the Glendale City Council should consider contacting TNSE to operate the Jobing.com arena...

 

[MHX]

Glendale mayor defends efforts to keep Phoenix Coyotes...

http://www.azcentral.com/community/...0/20101210glendale-mayor-phoenix-coyotes.html

Has anyone taken the time to read the comments from this article? Yikes!

I found this one especially interesting:

Scottsdale leaders were brighter than Scruggs. They insisted on financial information from Ellman, which he couldn't supply. So he took his dreams to Glendale and she fell for it hook, line and sinker because she thought she was one-upping Scottsdale.

 

[RR]

I got it... see above. Obviously, the visiting team is an important variable in Glendale attendance.

Correct. Take out DET, CHI and MON from last year's weekday schedule and compare to this year's non-elite to last years on weekdays.

2009-10 = 7419
2010-11 = 7643
Up 3%

 

[aj8000]

Correct. Take out DET, CHI and MON from last year's weekday schedule and compare to this year's non-elite to last years on weekdays.

2009-10 = 7419
2010-11 = 7643
Up 3%

So... All they need is to contract the league to the elite teams and the Yotes and they have it made

 

[CBJ goalie]

Glendale mayor defends efforts to keep Phoenix Coyotes...

http://www.azcentral.com/community/glendale/articles/2010/12/10/20101210glendale-mayor-phoenix-coyotes.html

She said Glendale has three options besides shutting off the lights:

- The city could run the facility with its own staff. That would take a lot of manpower and put Glendale in the business of booking concerts and shows, she said.

- The city could hire a company, like Global Spectrum at University of Phoenix Stadium, to arrange concerts and events at the arena. But singers are booking far fewer concerts today and competition for events is fierce, she said.

- The city could strike a deal to keep the Coyotes, who bring fans to more than 40 games per year and find concerts and events to fill other nights.

Option #1 - not sensible, just to 'maintain' a building.

Option #2 - IMO, makes the most sense - why can't Jobing.com arena be successful without a major tenant? The Sprint Centre in Kansas City seems to be doing alright without one.

Option #3 - seems like the favourite, at the expense of COG taxpayers.

 

[peter sullivan]

that scruggs article is certainly setting the table for a 'get ready glendale residents, this is going to hurt' kind of announcement.....can she really be that ignorant on the subject of arena management or is she just trying to justify what is about to happen.

 

[Whileee]

Correct. Take out DET, CHI and MON from last year's weekday schedule and compare to this year's non-elite to last years on weekdays.

2009-10 = 7419
2010-11 = 7643
Up 3%

And take out the "elites" from the weekend schedules (BOS, PHI in 2009) and (DET, PIT in 2010) then you get:

2009 = 10,829
2010 = 9,989

Down about 8%.

But you knew I was going to do that, didn't you...

 

[RR]

And take out the "elites" from the weekend schedules (BOS, PHI in 2009) and (DET, PIT in 2010) then you get:

2009 = 10,829
2010 = 9,989

Down about 8%.

But you knew I was going to do that, didn't you...

Nice try, since you already noted more weekend games this year than last. Six non-elite in 2010, four in 2009 . Your turn.

 

[Killion]

I found this one especially interesting:

Actually I found the bit about "singers' not booking as many shows" to be especially quaint & absolutely hilarious. Whatre' we talikng here Elaine?, William Shatner doing a version of Beatlemania sung entirely in acapella that includes Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds backed by a Parliament of Hooting Owls?.... You'll actually find a version of it here.

 

[Whileee]

Nice try, since you already noted more weekend games this year than last. Six non-elite in 2010, four in 2009 . Your turn.

2009 2010
Elite W/E 10,134 15,884
Elite W/D 10,788 n.a.
Other W/E 10,829 9,989
Other W/D 7,419 7,643

A mixed bag....

 

[Whileee]

that scruggs article is certainly setting the table for a 'get ready glendale residents, this is going to hurt' kind of announcement.....can she really be that ignorant on the subject of arena management or is she just trying to justify what is about to happen.

I am starting to wonder if the City of Glendale is actually contemplating direct subsidies to Hulsizer, using the argument that the benefit outweighs the cost. I have been convinced that any subsidies would have to come from a CFD (not Glendale city directly), but I am not so sure. She certainly didn't rule it out in that article. If that's the case, then this could be more interesting than we could have hoped, with the imminent arrival of the Goldwater Institute posse to give everyone some heartburn.

 

[AllByDesign]

Exactly. Its funny that Winnipeg, without NHL hockey, can have an arena that is the 3rd busiest in Canada and have no problem making money, yet Glendale has to turn out the lights on thier arena in the Coyotes leave.

Not really a fair comparison. TNSE has a monopoly on entertainment. They have an agreement with the city that stadium cannot compete with the arena, thus any concerts at Canad Inns stadium is through TNSE.

Jobbing.com has quite a few venues to compete with to attract entertainment promotion. This isn't the end of the world for this scenario as in anything with competition you at least have a shot.

 

[gollybass]

The reason they cant have the Coyotes leave and do other things with the Arena is because there are SO many venues in the valley. The Coyotes are the anchor tenant and without them the interest on the arena Glendale pays is going to be Pejorative Slured. Its better to have some revenue coming in than none and a Westgate city center whos tenants leave because the anchor tenant in there lease agreement is gone.

 

[RR]

2009 2010
Elite W/E 10,134 15,884
Elite W/D 10,788 n.a.
Other W/E 10,829 9,989
Other W/D 7,419 7,643

A mixed bag....

Not really, since CLB was the opener in 2009-10 on the weekend (sellout with $10 and $25 tickets; kind of skews Other W/E in 09/10, yes?).

We can do this all day, but I suspect Fugu will weigh in soon or PM us.