Part XV: Phoenix - the battle of evermore (UPD #443ff 14-Dec agenda/lease links)

[MoreOrr]

I think the answer is relatively straightforward. The NHL wants the team to remain in Glendale. If they can arrange that with an owner they like and without losing money in the transaction, they will do it. If they can't, then they will sell the team to recoup their money to an owner they like who will relocate it to a place that they support. Right now, the ownership group that they appear to like is TNSE and the location is Winnipeg. That is what all of the evidence points to, despite how this galls so many who seem to have deep concerns about how this will "harm" the NHL.

From my perspective, in part, you're saying essentially the same thing that I did. The League may have suggested that Winnipeg should get the Coyotes if they have to be moved, but I seriously doubt that the League is really keen on the idea. It's an option of last resort.

On the other hand, let's hypothetically say that there was a viable arena in Seattle, and that someone had stepped forward to move the Coyotes there... This Coyotes thread wouldn't exist, as well as many before it.

Simply put, there are very few attractive locations available these days, and virtually none that's being offered up as potential relocation options.

 

[Fidel Astro]

I think it's safe to say, that the December 14 COG meeting is pointless at this juncture. The COG can pretty much call a meeting whenever it want; well before the December 31 deadline to approve a “leaseâ€.

December 30, 11:00 pm sounds about right to me.

Yep, pretty much. They'll continue dragging this out until they are absolutely forced to finally do something on it. It's happened before.

 

[Faltorvo]

Brinksmanship, at this stage???

Glendale announced almost two months ago that they had reached a verbal agreement on a lease with Hulsizer. I guess that it was more "conceptual" than they we were led to believe.

By the way, I thought that there weren't any "deadlines" now that Hulsizer has been identified as a potential buyer.

Whileee this Dec 31 deadline is crucial, IMO, it gives all inside party's the justification to call a 24 hour emerge meeting at the most inconvenient time possible.

Thats what i would do if i had to propose something that is sketchy and possibly illegal to the people whom i count on their votes for my job security.

I also would make the document as large as humanly possible and have my lawyers fill up every grey area with double talk gobbldy goop.

Arizona tax payers, grab the lube , your about to get bent over.

 

[cheswick]

Really?

Not according to the current ESPN data.

Coyotes are averaging 10,189 after 12 home games according to this data....
http://espn.go.com/nhl/attendance

Last season was 11,989 according to ESPN...
http://espn.go.com/nhl/attendance/_/year/2010

Last night the "announced" attendance was just 7,749.

How does that equate to "trending upward"?

You're comparing after 12 home games vs the entire season last year. He's referring to after 12 games in each season. At one point attenadance was up 8% over last season. Currently its still about 3% over what it was last year. Still trending up but an an diminshing pace. At seasons end we might see soemthing different.

Last year after 12 games average: 9850
This year after 12 games: 10189

 

[OthmarAmmann]

Really?

Not according to the current ESPN data.

Coyotes are averaging 10,189 after 12 home games according to this data....
http://espn.go.com/nhl/attendance

Last season was 11,989 according to ESPN...
http://espn.go.com/nhl/attendance/_/year/2010

Last night the "announced" attendance was just 7,749.

How does that equate to "trending upward"?

ESPN data is full season and last season was back-loaded. Attendance is up this season, but how much depends on how you compare seasons. There were 16 home games by Dec 10th last year but only 12 this year (13 if you count Europe).

Through 12 games the averge last year was 9850, and through December 10th it was 9774. So attendance is up by about 3-4% this year.This is a small difference though and random fluctuation can't really be ruled out.

The largest gate last year after the home opener was 11,938 (Detroit on Oct 22).

edit: Note that if attendance stays about the same for the rest of the season, this season will fall short of last.

 

[cbcwpg]

At this point, even though I guess its not 100%, but I would say the team is staying. But, the suspense is killing me.

I just can't wait to see the deal the CoG is making with the devil and just how much money Hulsizer is being given each year to do the CoG and the NHL a favor by buying this team.

 

[ATHF]

Whileee this Dec 31 deadline is crucial, IMO, it gives all inside party's the justification to call a 24 hour emerge meeting at the most inconvenient time possible.

Thats what i would do if i had to propose something that is sketchy and possibly illegal to the people whom i count on their votes for my job security.

I also would make the document as large as humanly possible and have my lawyers fill up every grey area with double talk gobbldy goop.

Arizona tax payers, grab the lube , your about to get bent over.

Yup...why do you think that after nearly two years of negotiating with various parties, there's barely a handful of meaningful papers that have been released by the COG on this whole deal. They know that they have to essentially break the law to get this done and they're hoping that the fact that the Coyotes are so far under the radar and an inconvenient, hastily thrown together meeting will make it all go away.

There are much better ways for the COG to try to pay off the debt for this arena than trying to throw more taxpayer money at it. I believe the numbers are 4 million they would have to pay to an arena manager and 8-9 million on the debt, whether they have the Coyotes or not. Say that it's 15 million a year total for the COG if the Coyotes left. That's still 5-10 million less per year than they're expected to be shelling out in this shadiness and gives them five years to either find a new anchor tenant, apply to return to the NHL with better conditions and ownership, or finally sign off on the casino project that would solve everyone's problems and make everyone a ton of money.

I've got a sneaky feeling that, if they can manage to do it, those Goldwater folks will be the "Thin Ice" group that did their best to sink the Winnipeg arena deal back in the day, just with more legal avenues to pursue. The NHL looks good for approving MH as an owner, the COG looks good for doing everything they could including ******* their citizens, and the fairly unpopular Goldwater group takes all the heat for the Coyotes leaving from the 10-12,000 fans that have actually been following this and paying attention to what's been going on.

 

[ATHF]

ESPN data is full season and last season was back-loaded. Attendance is up this season, but how much depends on how you compare seasons. There were 16 home games by Dec 10th last year but only 12 this year (13 if you count Europe).

Through 12 games the averge last year was 9850, and through December 10th it was 9774. So attendance is up by about 3-4% this year.This is a small difference though and random fluctuation can't really be ruled out.

The largest gate last year after the home opener was 11,938 (Detroit on Oct 22).

edit: Note that if attendance stays about the same for the rest of the season, this season will fall short of last.

While you brought up random fluctuation, I would say that part of it is schedule based as well. Not sure when Pittsburgh came through last season, but they came through in this early-season stretch and were responsible for the second biggest spike after the home opener on that graph. If that game was replaced by a game with a team like Anaheim, Carolina, Tampa, etc. with Pittsburgh coming in in like February or March, I get the feeling that 3-4% would disappear and they'd probably be under....

 

[Alberta Yote]

I wonder how many other Glendale businesses would relocate or outright fail if the Coyotes weren't in Glendale? What is the tax revenue from those businesses to COG? Is there any talk in their leases about the Coyotes and/or other sporting attractions residing in the City?

 

[Whileee]

Yup...why do you think that after nearly two years of negotiating with various parties, there's barely a handful of meaningful papers that have been released by the COG on this whole deal. They know that they have to essentially break the law to get this done and they're hoping that the fact that the Coyotes are so far under the radar and an inconvenient, hastily thrown together meeting will make it all go away.

There are much better ways for the COG to try to pay off the debt for this arena than trying to throw more taxpayer money at it. I believe the numbers are 4 million they would have to pay to an arena manager and 8-9 million on the debt, whether they have the Coyotes or not. Say that it's 15 million a year total for the COG if the Coyotes left. That's still 5-10 million less per year than they're expected to be shelling out in this shadiness and gives them five years to either find a new anchor tenant, apply to return to the NHL with better conditions and ownership, or finally sign off on the casino project that would solve everyone's problems and make everyone a ton of money.

I've got a sneaky feeling that, if they can manage to do it, those Goldwater folks will be the "Thin Ice" group that did their best to sink the Winnipeg arena deal back in the day, just with more legal avenues to pursue. The NHL looks good for approving MH as an owner, the COG looks good for doing everything they could including ******* their citizens, and the fairly unpopular Goldwater group takes all the heat for the Coyotes leaving from the 10-12,000 fans that have actually been following this and paying attention to what's been going on.

I am not sure I agree with the numbers. Actually, here is how I understand the financial considerations.

- The arena debt costs the City of Glendale about $12-13 million per annum. Those are the numbers I have seen, though I am not sure of the source.

- Since 2003, the Coyotes owners paid about $22.8 million to the City of Glendale for lease and other payments for using the Jobing.com arena. That amounts to less than $4 million per year. This information is documented and available and has been posted on these boards. So, as it stands, the City of Glendale is already covering the additional $8-9 million annually towards the arena debt beyond what they receive from the Coyotes.

I stand to be corrected on these figures.

 

[ATHF]

I am not sure I agree with the numbers. Actually, here is how I understand the financial considerations.

- The arena debt costs the City of Glendale about $12-13 million per annum. Those are the numbers I have seen, though I am not sure of the source.

- Since 2003, the Coyotes owners paid about $22.8 million to the City of Glendale for lease and other payments for using the Jobing.com arena. That amounts to less than $4 million per year. This information is documented and available and has been posted on these boards. So, as it stands, the City of Glendale is already covering the additional $8-9 million annually towards the arena debt beyond what they receive from the Coyotes.

I stand to be corrected on these figures.

So in other words, if they find someone or something to fill half of the dates the Coyotes leave with full(ish) houses and hire an arena management team, they could be in the same position they're in now in regards to the arena without having to figure out a way to pilfer an extra 20-25 mil a year?

 

[Whileee]

I wonder how many other Glendale businesses would relocate or outright fail if the Coyotes weren't in Glendale? What is the tax revenue from those businesses to COG? Is there any talk in their leases about the Coyotes and/or other sporting attractions residing in the City?

This is a good question. Presumably some Westgate businesses would lose customers. Other businesses would probably be unaffected (like hair salons, cell phone companies, movie multiplexes). We have previously discussed this at some length. The question is how much the Coyotes fans are worth to the Westgate businesses and whether this offsets the amount that the Westgate businesses would need to contribute to the CFD. For example, adding any levies and parking charges to patrons of a movie multiplex would probably torpedo their business model because they rely on high volume and low cost for their revenue. Presumably, Reinsdorf's deal was too expensive. We don't know what will be required from the Westgate businesses for Hulsizer's deal, but I expect that this is a hot topic of conversation in the lease negotiations.

 

[Whileee]

So in other words, if they find someone or something to fill half of the dates the Coyotes leave with full(ish) houses and hire an arena management team, they could be in the same position they're in now in regards to the arena without having to figure out a way to pilfer an extra 20-25 mil a year?

For the City of Glendale the direct shortfall from lease-related payments from the Coyotes would be about $4 million per year, based on previous arrangements and payment history. Presumably they would be able to recoup some of this through other events at the Jobing.com arena.

 

[ATHF]

For the City of Glendale the direct shortfall from lease-related payments from the Coyotes would be about $4 million per year, based on previous arrangements and payment history. Presumably they would be able to recoup some of this through other events at the Jobing.com arena.

Making this whole ordeal even more baffling. They have cheaper ways out of this whole thing, they just don't want to admit it was a mistake to put Westgate out in the middle of nowhere with an anchor tenant that isn't exactly going to blow the doors off in terms of drawing people to shop or eat. I guess millions of dollars of other peoples' money is easier to swallow than those two little words that no one ever wants to say....."I'm wrong"....

 

[cheswick]

While you brought up random fluctuation, I would say that part of it is schedule based as well. Not sure when Pittsburgh came through last season, but they came through in this early-season stretch and were responsible for the second biggest spike after the home opener on that graph. If that game was replaced by a game with a team like Anaheim, Carolina, Tampa, etc. with Pittsburgh coming in in like February or March, I get the feeling that 3-4% would disappear and they'd probably be under....

Pittsburg is in the East and Phoenix in the West thus the Penguins would only come through every other year.

 

[ATHF]

Pittsburg is in the East and Phoenix in the West thus the Penguins would only come through every other year.

That's right...I still remember the days when everyone came through the barn every year...those were good times....

 

[OthmarAmmann]

While you brought up random fluctuation, I would say that part of it is schedule based as well. Not sure when Pittsburgh came through last season, but they came through in this early-season stretch and were responsible for the second biggest spike after the home opener on that graph. If that game was replaced by a game with a team like Anaheim, Carolina, Tampa, etc. with Pittsburgh coming in in like February or March, I get the feeling that 3-4% would disappear and they'd probably be under....

Pittsburgh didn't come through last year, but the Rangers did instead on Jan 30th. They drew 16,687.

edit: If you replace this year's PIT attendance with the average of 10189 (which of course include PIT, but anyway), the result is flat. But then again, that's within random fluctuation too.

I wonder how many other Glendale businesses would relocate or outright fail if the Coyotes weren't in Glendale? What is the tax revenue from those businesses to COG? Is there any talk in their leases about the Coyotes and/or other sporting attractions residing in the City?

There's also the question of how the CFD will affect their cost structure.

Making this whole ordeal even more baffling. They have cheaper ways out of this whole thing, they just don't want to admit it was a mistake to put Westgate out in the middle of nowhere with an anchor tenant that isn't exactly going to blow the doors off in terms of drawing people to shop or eat. I guess millions of dollars of other peoples' money is easier to swallow than those two little words that no one ever wants to say....."I'm wrong"....

That's pretty much it.

 

[ATHF]

The funny thing is that if they decided to sell or hell, even give Jobing to the people looking to do the casino thing, everyone would be making money hand over fist and that place would probably be booming in two or three years and the COG would be raking in enough coin to be able to pay off the debts that they owe without choking the city with even more red ink....

I mean, if there's one thing that casinos don't do, it's lose money and if there's one thing that they do do almost exclusively is bring people from far and wide to out of the way locations...

The answer is staring them right in the face, but I guess citizens gambling with their own money is a lot more unseemly than their elected officials gambling with taxpayer money..

 

[Killion]

Glendale, AZ is infuriating to work with. I initiated a simple FOIA request approximately 12 weeks ago. I have yet to receive a substantive response.

Regardless of my other lobbying efforts - the City of Glendale should have easily fulfilled a simple information request. The lack of response from the city is, to me, a clear indication of ill intent. Obviously, I do not know if that intent is to let the team leave -or- to provide a subsidy of epic proportions. I can say that Glendale, AZ will not allow you into their thought process even though they are a public entity that should be transparent.

I was wondering what'd happened to that CF. Goes all the way back to August if Im not mistaken. Did you "forget" to include a cheque for processing or overlook the Invoice the COG subsequently sent in order to "search their records"?. Tax cuts for all is just fine n' dandy but someones' gotta cover the city clerks time no?. I'd contribute, however PayPal, Visa & MC's sites seem to be experiencing technical difficulties at the moment.

giving flight to speculation...

On the other hand, let's hypothetically say that there was a viable arena in Seattle, and that someone had stepped forward to move the Coyotes there...

Their was a report sometime back quoting several (un-named) NHL insiders that confirms your hypothesis, and really, not as a Canadian nor an American, to wit I'm both, but from a strictly business perspective, I find that kind of systemic arrogance quite appalling, its subscribers' deserving of the meltdowns & pocket pains it has & will continue to engender within the NHL's fraternity of haves' & have nots'.

 

[Killion]

Then you must be absolutely exhausted at this point.

Dazed & Confused

 

[Whileee]

Dazed & Confused

"... for so long, it's not true."

 

[Gump Hasek]

Glendale mayor defends efforts to keep Phoenix Coyotes...

http://www.azcentral.com/community/glendale/articles/2010/12/10/20101210glendale-mayor-phoenix-coyotes.html

 

[RR]

Really?

Not according to the current ESPN data.

Coyotes are averaging 10,189 after 12 home games according to this data....
http://espn.go.com/nhl/attendance

Last season was 11,989 according to ESPN...
http://espn.go.com/nhl/attendance/_/year/2010

Last night the "announced" attendance was just 7,749.

How does that equate to "trending upward"?

ESPN is wrong. Last season after 12 games average was 9,850. This year is 10,189, which is up 3.32%. And having attended virtually every game this year and last, I believe the numbers this year is turnstile count vs. announced, and with fewer discounts and giveaways revenues up substantially over last year. Not saying for a second revenues are good, but up from last year.

And since some here continue to try and dissect the attendance, here's last year vs. this year, with attendance broken out for each opponent. 2009-10 on left, 2010-11 on right:

Game #|Opponent|Attendance|Total Att|Overall Avg||Game #|Opponent|Attendance|Total Att|Overall Avg|% +/-
1| CLB| 17,532| 17,532| 17,532|| 1| DET | 17,125 | 17,125| 17,125|-2.38%
2| STL | 6,899 |24,431|12,216||2| LAK | 6,706 |23,831|11,916|-2.52%
3|BOS|9,162|33,593|11,198||3|CAR|8,189|32,020|10,673|-4.91%
4| DET | 11,938 |45,531|11,383||4| TBL | 8,171 |40,191|10,048|-13.29%
5| LAK | 7,968 | 53,499|10,700||5|NAS|6,761|46,952|9,390|9,390|-13.94%
6| ANA | 6,495 |59,994|9,999|| 6|PIT|14,642|61,594|10,266|2.60%
7| LAK | 5,855 |65,849|9,407||7|CGY| 11,117|72,711|10,387|9.44%
8|CHI|10,362|76,211| 9,526||8| STL | 9,412 | 82,123|10,265|7.20%
9|MON|10,064|86,275|9,586||9|EDM|9,354|91,477|10,164|5.69%
10|DAL|11,319|97,594|9,759||10| ANA | 12,708 |104,185| 10,419|6.33%
11| TBL | 9,503 |107,097|9,736||11| FLA|10,334|114,519|10,411|6.48%
12|PHI|11,106|118,203|9,850||12|MIN| 7,749|122,268|10,189|3.32%

So from 2009-10 replace:
Columbus
Boston
Chicago
Montreal
Dallas
Philadelphia

with

Carolina
Nashville
Pittsburgh
Calgary
Edmonton
Florida
Minnesota

Emphasis added by me to point out elite teams in first 12 games last year vs. this year. Common opponents are color-coded.

 

[leafs4cup]

While you brought up random fluctuation, I would say that part of it is schedule based as well. Not sure when Pittsburgh came through last season, but they came through in this early-season stretch and were responsible for the second biggest spike after the home opener on that graph. If that game was replaced by a game with a team like Anaheim, Carolina, Tampa, etc. with Pittsburgh coming in in like February or March, I get the feeling that 3-4% would disappear and they'd probably be under....

You are indeed correct. If the coyotes could play all their games on saturday and play teams like pens,wings,leafs,philly and not teams like florida on sat they could probably almost break even.

 

[Whileee]

ESPN is wrong. Last season after 12 games average was 9,850. This year is 10,189, which is up 3.32%. And having attended virtually every game this year and last, I believe the numbers this year is turnstile count vs. announced, and with fewer discounts and giveaways revenues up substantially over last year. Not saying for a second revenues are good, but up from last year.

And since some here continue to try and dissect the attendance, here's last year vs. this year, with attendance broken out for each opponent. 2009-10 on left, 2010-11 on right:

Game #|Opponent|Attendance|Total Att|Overall Avg||Game #|Opponent|Attendance|Total Att|Overall Avg|% +/-
1| CLB| 17,532| 17,532| 17,532|| 1| DET | 17,125 | 17,125| 17,125|-2.38%
2| STL | 6,899 |24,431|12,216||2| LAK | 6,706 |23,831|11,916|-2.52%
3|BOS|9,162|33,593|11,198||3|CAR|8,189|32,020|10,673|-4.91%
4| DET | 11,938 |45,531|11,383||4| TBL | 8,171 |40,191|10,048|-13.29%
5| LAK | 7,968 | 53,499|10,700||5|NAS|6,761|46,952|9,390|9,390|-13.94%
6| ANA | 6,495 |59,994|9,999|| 6|PIT|14,642|61,594|10,266|2.60%
7| LAK | 5,855 |65,849|9,407||7|CGY| 11,117|72,711|10,387|9.44%
8|CHI|10,362|76,211| 9,526||8| STL | 9,412 | 82,123|10,265|7.20%
9|MON|10,064|86,275|9,586||9|EDM|9,354|91,477|10,164|5.69%
10|DAL|11,319|97,594|9,759||10| ANA | 12,708 |104,185| 10,419|6.33%
11| TBL | 9,503 |107,097|9,736||11| FLA|10,334|114,519|10,411|6.48%
12|PHI|11,106|118,203|9,850||12|MIN| 7,749|122,268|10,189|3.32%

So from 2009-10 replace:
Columbus
Boston
Chicago
Montreal
Dallas
Philadelphia

with

Carolina
Nashville
Pittsburgh
Calgary
Edmonton
Florida
Minnesota

Emphasis added by me to point out elite teams in first 12 games last year vs. this year. Common opponents are color-coded.

Interesting. I get the sense that attendance in Glendale is highly influenced by the night of the week, with weekend nights drawing a lot more than mid-week, regardless of the opponent. Do the data bear that out? How does the mix of mid-week vs. weekend games compare between last year and this?