GDT: Panthers @ Canes 2/7/14 - 7 PM

[Wolfpuck]

If the team can match the energy tonight, I have no problem with Cam getting the start against Montreal. It didn't look like the Canes were too gassed, so hopefully they can play a solid 60 minutes. By all accounts, Ward is ready.

 

[Ole Gil]

What's to be gained by rolling the dice with Ward. With 2 weeks off, 'getting work' means nothing. Empty tank tomorrow, then get Ward back in the rotation post Olympics.

 

[What the Faulk]

If you term any future Ward start "rolling the dice", why gamble now and see what he has? Why wait when points just become even more precious?

 

[Ole Gil]

Because post break, he's going to be getting back into the rotation. So even if he puts up a stinker, it serves a purpose. Tomorrow is a one-off. There will be no getting into a rhythm, or building momentum, etc... Khudobin seems like the safer play to me.

 

[rocky7]

nice win so, so far so good. sure interesting to see what Muller decides to do with the goaltending situation. every game is so huge now. every point precious.

 

[FeedDaPuck]

nice win so, so far so good. sure interesting to see what Muller decides to do with the goaltending situation. every game is so huge now. every point precious.

Dobby is in net against MTL. (Wow, I am really speechless)

 

[FeedDaPuck]

Khudobin really wasn't that great, allowed a goal that Ward/Peters would be vilified for, several posts and faced a ton of shots. Of course, he'll probably go tomorrow and allow 3+, because things even out. See the last Montreal game.

Completely agree. The goal was definitely bad: and not even the goal itself but the rebound the he gave up on the previous shot. Posts, etc. were his helpers.

But I do have to note his ability to play breakaways: he seems really cool and not jumpy on them. The pad kick to the post seems to stymie somehow the players. (surprising, given his crappy shootout records in the past).

 

[rocky7]

I think going with Khudobin is the best way to go but all things considered, there really is no right answer. the goaltending situation is a crappy one that has to be resolved one way or the other and personally, I have little confidence in Ward right now but it is what it is. Muller is going to try to win by every means possible obviously, but it's clear that Rutherford still believes that Ward is "their guy". like I said, it will be interesting to watch as it all plays out and there is little to no room for error anymore.

 

[Stormie]

I agree that there is no right answer. You can easily criticize either decision. I'm personally leaning towards "gambling" with Ward, but I can understand giving the hot hand the start. If Dobby has a bad game, it will be way too easy to blame Muller, but I don't think that will happen. I'm more concerned that we were shutout the last Montreal game on the tail end of a back-to-back. If we can score three, I think Dobby will at least secure a point for us.

 

[Razputyn]

Start Ward and let him sink or swim. We've seen 17 games with Khudobin at the helm and he hasn't let up more than 3 in any of them. Goalies play significantly worse on back to back nights. If this entire thing is about trying out a new #1, give the backup a shot.

 

[FeedDaPuck]

I think going with Khudobin is the best way to go but all things considered, there really is no right answer. the goaltending situation is a crappy one that has to be resolved one way or the other and personally, I have little confidence in Ward right now but it is what it is. Muller is going to try to win by every means possible obviously, but it's clear that Rutherford still believes that Ward is "their guy". like I said, it will be interesting to watch as it all plays out and there is little to no room for error anymore.

To put it simply: I just feel that they are pushing Dobby way too much. He needs a break. On the other hand: he has a pretty long one coming up. Let's ride him into it. As for MTL: if Carolina scores first, I think they will win: shot selection by MTL will be more "north south", which will benefit Dobby.

How is it clear that JR believes that Ward is his guy?

 

[Blueline Bomber]

How is it clear that JR believes that Ward is his guy?

Because if he wasn't "his guy", a bigger effort would be made to trade him, if only to clear space to give Khudobin what he wants and fix some of the holes in this team. But at last check, JR stated that it would take a "significant offer" to pry Ward from the Canes, which gives a pretty clear indication that he still believes in him.

 

[FeedDaPuck]

Because if he wasn't "his guy", a bigger effort would be made to trade him, if only to clear space to give Khudobin what he wants and fix some of the holes in this team. But at last check, JR stated that it would take a "significant offer" to pry Ward from the Canes, which gives a pretty clear indication that he still believes in him.

I would speculate that ANY offer would be a significant one. I don't think they want to go Jokinnen route, where they would still be paying part of Ward's salary when he is playing on another team. Therefore, I think any offer to take Ward's salary off of their hands would be a big one. But then, same problem would resurface: who is their back up once Ward is traded.

 

[Clark Gillies]

Playing Dobby tonight is absolutely the best way to go. Muller siad it in his post game interview , we'll see how he feels, Forslund said it on the aftermath - if he can go, you start him. He still gives us the best chance to secure points.

I think the negative impact of a loss on Cam would far out weight the benefits of a good outing. He will get time after the break no doubt. I think most of us acknowledge Cam has been struggling mentally and with confidence. I don't want him laying an egg and then having to deal with thinking about it for 2 weeks.

Dobby hasn't give up more than 3 goals in any game this year, I don't see why you would think that would change tonight.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Because if he wasn't "his guy", a bigger effort would be made to trade him, if only to clear space to give Khudobin what he wants and fix some of the holes in this team. But at last check, JR stated that it would take a "significant offer" to pry Ward from the Canes, which gives a pretty clear indication that he still believes in him.

I think you might be reading too much into it. IMO, this is more of a hockey and business decision than it is about how JR feels about Ward. What JR does this season likely isn't any indication that he feels Ward is "his guy" as it makes little sense to trade him from a hockey standpoint (unless it is an unbelievable offer). Right now, the team's 1st, 2nd and 3rd priority is to make the playoffs, and a tandem of Khodobin/Ward will give them the best chance of achieving that. I suspect they'll ride Khodobin/Ward the rest of the way and sort it out at the end of the season. If they trade were to trade Ward now and Khodobin goes down or has a rough stretch, even for a few games, the Canes are toast as they are stuck with Peters and you can kiss any chance at the playoffs goodbye.

Secondly, unless they have Khodobin signed to a contract, trading Ward would leave them very exposed to having no goalie next year. If I was Anton, I'd be in no hurry to sign a deal as the value increases as time goes on. Not to mention, Ward has a NTC, so he's not waiving it for just any team.

Even if JR had every intention of trying to trade Ward in the near future, it would make little sense to do it right now and there are other factors that make it difficult anyhow.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

There were a couple of comments about posts being hit. I couldn't see them all live from my seat, but the one in the 2nd period was right in front of me. It looked to me like Khodobin was right up against the post and the guy took a shot that, from that angle, wasn't a great % shot. It hit the post, but given where Khodobin was positioned, I don't think it was going in no matter what. To me, it looked like if it was a couple of inches to the right, it just would have hit Khodobin.

I'd have to see a replay for sure, but don't think that was a case of just missing a goal because it hit the post. Can't comment on other ones as my eyesight isn't good enough.

Overall, a good win. Florida was outworking them for portions of the game (not sure what the advanced stats say, but in the 1st period, the play was down in the north end much more than the south end). But, in fairness, the Canes looked to me like they built a lead and then played to conserve themselves, so it's understandable. It's nice they could roll all 4 lines and having all forwards in the 13-16 minute range.

That 4th line has really come together. Nash is playing with a lot of confidence right now and had a number of great chances. He took some good shots too, Clemenson made a couple of very nice saves on him. I'd still like to see Boychuk get a shot on that line, but can't complain if it is working.

When Lindholm adds a little bulk, I think he's going to be fantastic. Great hockey sense, works hard at both ends, good hands, good playmaking, not afraid of board play, etc.. I know comparisons are overused, but he really does remind me of Backstrom.

 

[Lazyking]

If Dobby can go, you start him. Get Ward back in the mix after the break. If the team is going to make the playoffs, he will have to make a few starts. If he plays well, you know you can go to him in the playoffs.

 

[GoCanes2013]

I didn't see it mentioned anywhere, but I have to say last night was Ruutu's best of the year for me. I was surprised he didn't get a star, frankly. He was all over the place, hitting people, making some really nice passes, winning on the boards, puck handling, skating hard. I actually had to ask myself what changed. I know it was his 600th game, but it was noticeable to me how really good he was. For one game anyway, he played like the contract he has. Anyone else see the same thing?

 

[Ole Gil]

I didn't see it mentioned anywhere, but I have to say last night was Ruutu's best of the year for me. I was surprised he didn't get a star, frankly. He was all over the place, hitting people, making some really nice passes, winning on the boards, puck handling, skating hard. I actually had to ask myself what changed. I know it was his 600th game, but it was noticeable to me how really good he was. For one game anyway, he played like the contract he has. Anyone else see the same thing?

Generally, 4th lines see bottom pairings and other 3rd and 4th liners. Our 4th line has enough talent to exploit those guys on a nightly basis. Ruutu has deteriorated, and Nash is an iffy 3rd line center. But by 4th line standards, they are very skilled offensively. (Even without Westgarths irreplaceable net presence)

 

[tarheelhockey]

Ruutu also had some really ugly turnovers mixed in with those good plays.

BBA, I think you're right about that post in the 2nd being non-threatening. The one that struck me as total luck was in the 3rd when the puck squirted past him and simply hit the outside of the post instead of the inside. TBH, though, I don't think they were ever out of control of that game. Florida plays a loose style and we were happy to do that in the first game of back-to-backs.

 

[What the Faulk]

Ruutu was definitely in bull/china shop mode last night. It worked, though.

As for QoC, well, let's just make this comparison as a whole:

http://www.extraskater.com/players/dashboard?players=545,853

Aside from zone starts, pretty similar seasons. But Ruutu has been unlucky on both sides of the puck. It's amazing how much criticism Tlusty has escaped while Ruutu has drawn everyone's ire.

There were a couple of comments about posts being hit. I couldn't see them all live from my seat, but the one in the 2nd period was right in front of me. It looked to me like Khodobin was right up against the post and the guy took a shot that, from that angle, wasn't a great % shot. It hit the post, but given where Khodobin was positioned, I don't think it was going in no matter what. To me, it looked like if it was a couple of inches to the right, it just would have hit Khodobin.

I'd have to see a replay for sure, but don't think that was a case of just missing a goal because it hit the post. Can't comment on other ones as my eyesight isn't good enough.

Overall, a good win. Florida was outworking them for portions of the game (not sure what the advanced stats say, but in the 1st period, the play was down in the north end much more than the south end). But, in fairness, the Canes looked to me like they built a lead and then played to conserve themselves, so it's understandable. It's nice they could roll all 4 lines and having all forwards in the 13-16 minute range.

That 4th line has really come together. Nash is playing with a lot of confidence right now and had a number of great chances. He took some good shots too, Clemenson made a couple of very nice saves on him. I'd still like to see Boychuk get a shot on that line, but can't complain if it is working.

When Lindholm adds a little bulk, I think he's going to be fantastic. Great hockey sense, works hard at both ends, good hands, good playmaking, not afraid of board play, etc.. I know comparisons are overused, but he really does remind me of Backstrom.

Pretty much agree with everything here, especially on Boychuk, Lindholm, and Nash.

Definitely agree on that post, but I think there was another one besides the one tarheelhockey mentioned. Can't recall off the top of my head though.

As far as coasting with the lead, there's something called "score effects" that unintentionally plays its way into games. Rather than a team controlling the puck because of "momentum" after a few goals, generally the opposite will happen. Build a lead, and sit back and coast a little. This is part of the reason why a lot of people use "corsi close". It's more indicative of the minutes that matter.

Check out the flat red lines after Hurricanes' goals:

 

[Ole Gil]

Ruutu also had some really ugly turnovers mixed in with those good plays.

But that's okay now. Not that he can be completely irresponsible, just that taking a chance is a lot less likely to lead to anything the other way.

I think the difference between Ruutu and Tlusty, is pay, and the perception that age and injuries make this version of Ruutu the norm from here on out. While Tlusty could possibly get back on track.

 

[geehaad]

Big difference here: Tlusty steers clear of making really, really terrible passes and/or losing the puck possession very easily.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Big difference here: Tlusty steers clear of making really, really terrible passes and/or losing the puck possession very easily.

Yeah, and I'm not buying that Ruutu has been "unlucky". Constant turnovers and missing scoring opportunities tells his story better than "bad luck".

 

[What the Faulk]

I watched Tlusty miss point blank against the Winnipeg and pass to no one multiple times against Florida. Ruutu has more giveaways, but that's not necessarily all bad. I expect this to go over even less comfortably than any other "advanced" stat talk, but:

To win hockey games, you must score goals. To score goals, you must possess the puck. The Hits For/Against differential is just another way to measure possession. In this breakdown, even though they're in the negatives, players like Couturier and Voracek possess the puck often. Possession is a good thing.

Look at it this way, 'Giveaways' are a form of turnovers. Among the League's leaders in this stat, are names like: John Tavares, Taylor Hall, Phil Kessel, Ryan Getzlaf, Jordan Eberle, Jamie Benn. What do these players also have in common? They are their team's highest scoring forwards. Why? Because they're skilled possession players.

In hockey, keeping possession of the puck is incredibly difficult. I forget the exact number, but each team averages somewhere around 80 - 90 turnovers a game. Less than 1% of all turnovers lead to goals against. So, turnovers aren't necessarily a negative reflection of a player's skill or a team's ability to win hockey games. From my interpretation, a turnover count is only one of many measurements of possession. The more possession, the better. Sure, you can make an argument for an individual circumstance: one turnover led to a goal against our net; so, that turnover was horrible. Turnovers may not be the preferred science of possession. However, in the grander scheme of things, it's all about how they're interpreted. It's also extremely relative.

Taylor Hall leads all NHL forwards in giveaways (74), and he happens to be a part of the Edmonton Oilers organization. The Oilers are dead last in the Western Conference standings, but does that have anything to do with Hall's turnovers? Yes, maybe so. But perhaps, not really.

Phil Kessel and Jumbo Joe Thornton come in right behind Hall in giveaways; the Leafs and Sharks are currently in Playoff contention among their Division/Conference foes. Both Clubs rank in the tops of Goals-per-Game. Do you believe possession from their leading scorers has anything to do with that?


To get back to the Hits For/Against differential, do you know whose name exists at the bottom of that column? Jonathan Toews. The Blackhawks' captain has been outhit 116 to 23, which scores him a whopping -93 differential. Remember, in order for a hit to be recorded, Toews had to lose possession of the puck 116 times.

Did you know Chicago averages the most goals-scored per game (3.42)? Why is that?

Possession.

I don't disagree that Ruutu turns the puck over a lot. I don't disagree that since he gets paid more, more is expected of him. But I question why Ruutu is almost universally disliked for his on ice play while Tlusty is not when they're posting very similar seasons. In fact, Ruutu ranks 5th in 5v5 points per 60 minutes. Tlusty is 8th. There's an argument to be made to swap them.