Panarin: Yes or No?

[smoneil]

My concern is draft picks. you know to rebuild.

And I'm sick of these advanced stats that fly in the face of reality. These aren't sub-atomic particles. It's players over 30 who get ****ty.

Again, the water is wet thing.

One day some ape is going to come on here and say ,"I just crunched the numbers , and when you hold the calculator upside down, you can see that next year Rick Nash will score 80087322 goals, so..."

I fully understand that your concern is draft picks. But two people (me and bobhop) who have experience building sports teams have made the point that bottoming out and allowing a losing culture into the room is a huge unnecessary risk. The guys who run the Rangers seem to agree, as they have sold off in shifts (a couple guys each year) so as to NOT bottom out and keep the team at least competitive (as indicated by close games). Building a team is about more than doing whatever it takes to collect assets. It's about bringing together the right assets and then putting them into a position where they can thrive and grow the right way. Too many people on here forget that a lot of these players are basically kids. You need to give them the right environment and they need to believe they can win every night, because once they stop trying to do that (which happens a LOT in teams that take the bottoming out approach you clearly want), those habits are very difficult to break. A player like Panarin helps to keep them competitive--they won't be a playoff team either way this year, but they also won't get blown out on the regular. And that's good for development.

The other post wasn't "advanced stats." It was a f***ing bar graph that tracked production by age for players fitting the criteria of "elite." I work with Shakespeare for a living and that post used math even I could understand.

 

[ReggieDunlop68]

But Panarin does not have that same 12-13 years. He doesnt have the miles on his body.

By 30+

 

[mas0764]

I'm not going to call a stalemate just because I'm not crazy enough to crunch numbers and post it to try to prove that players don't get less good with age let alone significantly less good.

It's not that much more nuanced. It's human beings after playing a high intensity sport violent sport for up to 12 -13 years at that point in just the NHL.

It is much more nuanced. Someone posted a breakdown that players similar to Panarin have lasted longer than people have been insinuating in this thread at first or second line production. It’s hardly even “advanced stats,” — it’s just regular stats.

Of course players get less good with age; but it’s more nuanced than that. How much less good? And how long does it take? And if its a case by case basis (which it is), then what is the most likely course for Panarin based on the evidence we have?

If you don’t have any stats, fine, and you are entitled to your opinion.

But don’t pretend like the other argument is invalid based on your own completely unsupported and anecdotal opinion.

And on top of that, half of the debate isn’t even about a pure numerical decline anyway. It’s also “reality” - backed up both by statistics and by anecdote - that he should be at his peak for the next 3-4 seasons. So even if your anecdotes about player decline did rule the argument, which they don’t, it would still be a matter of preference and opinion as to whether it’s worth it to sign him now and then just suffer those last contract years.

 

[ReggieDunlop68]

I fully understand that your concern is draft picks. But two people (me and bobhop) who have experience building sports teams have made the point that bottoming out and allowing a losing culture into the room is a huge unnecessary risk. The guys who run the Rangers seem to agree, as they have sold off in shifts (a couple guys each year) so as to NOT bottom out and keep the team at least competitive (as indicated by close games). Building a team is about more than doing whatever it takes to collect assets. It's about bringing together the right assets and then putting them into a position where they can thrive and grow the right way. Too many people on here forget that a lot of these players are basically kids. You need to give them the right environment and they need to believe they can win every night, because once they stop trying to do that (which happens a LOT in teams that take the bottoming out approach you clearly want), those habits are very difficult to break. A player like Panarin helps to keep them competitive--they won't be a playoff team either way this year, but they also won't get blown out on the regular. And that's good for development.

The other post wasn't "advanced stats." It was a ****ing bar graph that tracked production by age for players fitting the criteria of "elite." I work with Shakespeare for a living and that post used math even I could understand.

Holy shit!

It's a virtually closed system for elite talent.

Saying I shouldn't be concerned about drafting high [the elite talent ], because @bobbop brought in completely different talent in a different system is so paradoxical idk what else to say.

Don't hate the player , hate the game.

 

[smoneil]

And in regard to peoples "feelerz" getting hurt, well what tone do you expect people to give when fans who seemingly spend more time worrying about the Rangers than the Rangers themselves , want to do literally the wrong thing the team has done since the 70s: not holding and buying things.

How should someone respond to anyone over 10 years old?

With admiration?

Don't think so fam.

Oh for god's sake grow up. This is NOT what the Rangers have done since the 1970s and you either know that or you are just oblivious. The Rangers of the dark ages would be out there signing a couple lines of free agents. Panarin AND Duchene AND Karlsson. They'd also be trading guys like Chytil and Krav and the rest for vets. They'd be doing stupid shit like signing a bunch of middle six guys because they were "former captains" (shades of Keane and Skrudland) to get an influx of leadership. That's not what anyone here has been suggesting.

I literally want the team to sign one FA--a top level LW--and then trade their current 1LW (Kreider) because he's not as good and not as durable. That's it. Upgrading on a position via FA and then using the fallout to acquire more draft choices is NOTHING like the way the team used to operate.

 

[ReggieDunlop68]

Oh for god's sake grow up. This is NOT what the Rangers have done since the 1970s and you either know that or you are just oblivious. The Rangers of the dark ages would be out there signing a couple lines of free agents. Panarin AND Duchene AND Karlsson. They'd also be trading guys like Chytil and Krav and the rest for vets. They'd be doing stupid **** like signing a bunch of middle six guys because they were "former captains" (shades of Keane and Skrudland) to get an influx of leadership. That's not what anyone here has been suggesting.

I literally want the team to sign one FA--a top level LW--and then trade their current 1LW (Kreider) because he's not as good and not as durable. That's it. Upgrading on a position via FA and then using the fallout to acquire more draft choices is NOTHING like the way the team used to operate.

The Rangers haven't bought and moved players without tanking to the bottom 3 since the Esposito trade. News to me.

One f***ing time they stay low, which they almost f***ed up with loser points, and everyone wants to do a 180.

Do you realize how hard Jersey is going to f*** us if we don't dip for a bit too?

f*** Panarin.

 

[smoneil]

Holy ****!

It's a virtually closed system for elite talent.

Saying I shouldn't be concerned about drafting high [the elite talent ], because @bobbop brought in completely different talent in a different system is so paradoxical idk what else to say.

Don't hate the player , hate the game.

The team is adding an elite talent in this draft. They have BEEN adding above average talent via draft and trades for the last two offseasons. No matter WHAT they do this year, odds are that they fall rather than rise in the draft lottery.

You don't want to understand that because you've made up your mind that the ONLY way to build a team is to tank and acquire top 3 picks. That isn't true, and in fact neither team in the SCF right now has drafted top of the draft all that often over the last couple decades. Boston was literally built by Gorts in the same way that Gorts is building the Rangers.

 

[ReggieDunlop68]

The team is adding an elite talent in this draft. They have BEEN adding above average talent via draft and trades for the last two offseasons. No matter WHAT they do this year, odds are that they fall rather than rise in the draft lottery.

You don't want to understand that because you've made up your mind that the ONLY way to build a team is to tank and acquire top 3 picks. That isn't true, and in fact neither team in the SCF right now has drafted top of the draft all that often over the last couple decades. Boston was literally built by Gorts in the same way that Gorts is building the Rangers.

Because it's designed that way whether you like it or not.

I'm not even saying I necessarily like that system. But so what? That's how it's been since then '67 expansion.

 

[smoneil]

The Rangers haven't bought and moved players without tanking to the bottom 3 since the Esposito trade. News to me.

One ****ing time they stay low, which they almost ****ed up with loser points, and everyone wants to do a 180.

Do you realize how hard Jersey is going to **** us if we don't dip for a bit too?

**** Panarin.

It ISN'T a 180. They are building the team exactly the way they said they would--bringing in assets while trying to stay competitive (defined as NOT bottoming out). That is nothing like the Rangers teams that gave zero f***s about development and planned to fill every slot with FAs. This franchise was never going to tank its way to the bottom of the league.

 

[RGY]

The Rangers haven't bought and moved players without tanking to the bottom 3 since the Esposito trade. News to me.

One ****ing time they stay low, which they almost ****ed up with loser points, and everyone wants to do a 180.

Do you realize how hard Jersey is going to **** us if we don't dip for a bit too?

**** Panarin.

What in the hell does NJ have to do with anything?? What are you ranting about?

f*** Panarin? Its one thing to be opposed to signing him but this just sounds incredibly ignorant. The guy is an elite winger in this league. Yeah f*** Panarin for being an elite winger...

 

[ReggieDunlop68]

It's the same relative to the cap. They simply can't buy all the bullshit they want.

So they buy some, which makes the team middle fiddle fodder.

 

[ReggieDunlop68]

What in the hell does NJ have to do with anything?? What are you ranting about?

**** Panarin? Its one thing to be opposed to signing him but this just sounds incredibly ignorant. The guy is an elite winger in this league. Yeah **** Panarin for being an elite winger...

What does Jersey getting much better than us have to do with us?

Excuse me?

 

[smoneil]

Because it's designed that way whether you like it or not.

I'm not even saying I necessarily like that system. But so what? That's how it's been since then '67 expansion.

You saying it doesn't make it true. Again--Boston has been competitive for years now without spending time at the bottom of the league. And that team was built by the same guy in charge of our re-build. Expecting him to do things differently this time--ESPECIALLY since it obviously worked quite well the last time--just because you've decided that your opinion of undebatable fact, is just absurd.

 

[ReggieDunlop68]

You saying it doesn't make it true. Again--Boston has been competitive for years now without spending time at the bottom of the league. And that team was built by the same guy in charge of our re-build. Expecting him to do things differently this time--ESPECIALLY since it obviously worked quite well the last time--just because you've decided that your opinion of undebatable fact, is just absurd.

Boston did bottom out twice from 97 until today.

 

[RGY]

What does Jersey getting much better than us have to do with us?

Excuse me?

How in the hell are they much better than us?

Jesus. I give up.

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

I don’t know who you all are railing against, but it’s hilarious to read just the reactions without seeing the original posts.

 

[ReggieDunlop68]

How in the hell are they much better than us?

Jesus. I give up.

You need to let it swirl for like 10 seconds

"YO iz dis guy sayin Jersey is better like this second n shit?"

No. I'm not.

By drafting better than us. Particularly in the scenario I presented.

 

[RGY]

You need to let it swirl for like 10 seconds

"YO iz dis guy sayin Jersey is better like this second n ****?"

No. I'm not.

By drafting better than us. Particularly in the scenario I presented.

My God this is just too funny at this point.

We need to tank next season to ensure that we have the best ODDS of the lottery balls bouncing our way so that we land a higher pick than NJ and simply draft “better” than them.

No shot that the Devils may pick 5th in 2020 and we pick a 15th and we dont end up with the better player right?

Bottom line is we gotta operate based around the New Jersey Devils.

Im done.

 

[smoneil]

Boston did bottom out twice from 97 until today.

They've missed the playoffs only twice in the last 10 or so years, and both times they had a winning record. You seriously went all the way back to Joe Thornton? Here's a fun little factoid for you:

The Bruins have been one of the top teams in the league for the last ten years. The event that began that period of stellar play? Drafting 2nd overall and 9th overall in back to back years. They haven't even drafted in the top ten since then, so they must suck, right? Because of your truism about the "closed system" for acquiring talent, right? Surely that must be Buffalo or Edmonton playing the Blues right now, right? Stop expecting the guy in charge of our rebuild to do anything different from how he did things for his last rebuild--a team which is all but certain to lift Lord Stanley pretty soon.

 

[Synergy27]

What in the hell does NJ have to do with anything?? What are you ranting about?

**** Panarin? Its one thing to be opposed to signing him but this just sounds incredibly ignorant. The guy is an elite winger in this league. Yeah **** Panarin for being an elite winger...

The thing I don’t think people give enough credit to is the fact that while yes, the Rangers have added quite a bit of young talent over the last couple of years, so have many other teams. The Rangers are adding Kakko and Kravtsov to Zibanejad, the Devils are adding Hughes to Hischier and Hall. As much at we don’t want to admit it, there’s a very high probability that the three Devils mentioned are the top three players on that list a couple years from now when the Rangers are hoping to compete for the Cup.

I’d feel a lot better about our chances come crunch time if you throw a Lafreniere/Byfield/Raymond into that Rangers mix. Even if Panarin has 4 very good years left, I’m not interested in wasting two of them in an effort to keep the team away from yet another young, cost controlled elite talent. I’ve watched too many rival teams figure out how to win in the cap era. The UFA tree ain’t gonna be the one I bark up.

 

[Synergy27]

They've missed the playoffs only twice in the last 10 or so years, and both times they had a winning record. You seriously went all the way back to Joe Thornton? Here's a fun little factoid for you:

The Bruins have been one of the top teams in the league for the last ten years. The event that began that period of stellar play? Drafting 2nd overall and 9th overall in back to back years. They haven't even drafted in the top ten since then, so they must suck, right? Because of your truism about the "closed system" for acquiring talent, right? Surely that must be Buffalo or Edmonton playing the Blues right now, right? Stop expecting the guy in charge of our rebuild to do anything different from how he did things for his last rebuild--a team which is all but certain to lift Lord Stanley pretty soon.

The Bruins drafted their entire first line with picks between 25 and 71. You can view this fact a few different ways:

1. As proof that you don’t need premium picks to win.

2. As proof that some teams are better at drafting than others.

3. As proof that some teams are “luckier” than others.

The Rangers have never in my lifetime been in bin 2 or 3. That’s why I want to be in bin 1 for once.

 

[smoneil]

The thing I don’t think people give enough credit to is the fact that while yes, the Rangers have added quite a bit of young talent over the last couple of years, so have many other teams. The Rangers are adding Kakko and Kravtsov to Zibanejad, the Devils are adding Hughes to Hischier and Hall. As much at we don’t want to admit it, there’s a very high probability that the three Devils mentioned are the top three players on that list a couple years from now when the Rangers are hoping to compete for the Cup.

I’d feel a lot better about our chances come crunch time if you throw a Lafreniere/Byfield/Raymond into that Rangers mix. Even if Panarin has 4 very good years left, I’m not interested in wasting two of them in an effort to keep the team away from yet another young, cost controlled elite talent. I’ve watched too many rival teams figure out how to win in the cap era. The UFA tree ain’t gonna be the one I bark up.

I bet the Knicks would feel a lot better throwing a Zion into the mix of Porzhingis and a bunch of young guys. They tanked their way to the bottom of the league. The lotto didn't bounce their way, their embarrassing embrace of the tank soured the one blue chip they DID have, and now there's questions about whether the top FA guys will want to go to NY (and if they do, it almost certainly won't be enough).

The Rangers have amassed a massive pile of 1st and 2nd round assets from the last three drafts. They are adding another couple of first rounders this year (one of which is 2oa). There is a pretty solid chance that they will add ANOTHER pair of 1st rounders next year (either by way of Dallas re-signing Zucc and/or Kreider trade). And their own 2020 pick--whether or not they sign Panarin--will likely be a lottery pick as they are unlikely to make the playoffs.

Don't skunk the pile of talent we HAVE acquired (by letting them develop in a tanking culture) on the off chance that a lotto ball bounces fortunately.

 

[ReggieDunlop68]

My God this is just too funny at this point.

We need to tank next season to ensure that we have the best ODDS of the lottery balls bouncing our way so that we land a higher pick than NJ and simply draft “better” than them.

No shot that the Devils may pick 5th in 2020 and we pick a 15th and we dont end up with the better player right?

Bottom line is we gotta operate based around the New Jersey Devils.

Im done.

No. Your argument is literally horrible and not what I said.

 

[smoneil]

The Bruins drafted their entire first line with picks between 25 and 71. You can view this fact a few different ways:

1. As proof that you don’t need premium picks to win.

2. As proof that some teams are better at drafting than others.

3. As proof that some teams are “luckier” than others.

The Rangers have never in my lifetime been in bin 2 or 3. That’s why I want to be in bin 1 for once.

They also did it by acquiring six 1st rounders over a three year span. Give yourself more picks, and your odds of getting lucky increase. Gorts is literally working from the same development playbook he ran in Boston, except the Rangers have acquired even MORE 1st rounders and their pedigree has been higher because of this year's lotto bounce. They are set to have at LEAST 8 and potentially 10 first round picks over a four year span (2017-2020). That's a lot of talent, no matter where our natural 2020 pick falls.

 

[ReggieDunlop68]

They've missed the playoffs only twice in the last 10 or so years, and both times they had a winning record. You seriously went all the way back to Joe Thornton? Here's a fun little factoid for you:

The Bruins have been one of the top teams in the league for the last ten years. The event that began that period of stellar play? Drafting 2nd overall and 9th overall in back to back years. They haven't even drafted in the top ten since then, so they must suck, right? Because of your truism about the "closed system" for acquiring talent, right? Surely that must be Buffalo or Edmonton playing the Blues right now, right? Stop expecting the guy in charge of our rebuild to do anything different from how he did things for his last rebuild--a team which is all but certain to lift Lord Stanley pretty soon.

It's not a truism to say it's a closed system. It's a demonstrative fact.