Rumor: Pagnotta: Keep an eye on DAL/NSH/VGK/CHI if Marner is shopped

[seanlinden]

There's a long, long, long, long list of teams that would love to add Connor McDavid but it doesn't mean they are lining up at Ken Holland's front door willing to pay the price tag. You're underestimating the general thought of "Marner is a good player and we'd love to have him but it just doesn't make sense for us right now."

And I didn't say "just a goalie". I suggested that a starting goalie be a part of the package from a team that has one to give. If Nashville is interested and they have Saros, the TML would be nuts not to ask for him as part of the return. What else would you ask for? A late 1st that will do nothing to move the needle for the team during it's current window?

It seems like you are more interested in the "meme" of the return than considering what the actual return should be.

Correct. All you need is 1, maybe 2, willing to pay the price tag.

The Leafs would be idiots to place ANY significant value on Saros. He has 1 year left, and then is likely to command a price well in excess of $7m. That year, is probably going to be a re-tooling year for the Leafs. Teams don't win cups with high priced goalies; as you will always run into a team that has a goalie who duels with them for half the price.

Sure, if you receive 2 offers from Nashville (and their offer happens to be the best one)...

one being Novak, Evangelista and Saros; and the other being Novak, Evangelista and a 2nd; might as well take Saros as it gives you at least a solid situation for this year and another year to find a better solution.

But, Saros does not at all move the needle in a Marner trade. The list of goalies that "move the needle" for Marner are probably Shesterkin, Oettenger, Swayman, Demko, etc... and none of those guys are being traded.

I don't think anyone is suggesting that teams won't be interested in Marner. There is interest, but that doesn't mean that the interested parties are going to be lining up all of their top assets to throw into a trade with Marner. NHL GM's make trades to make their team better. Bringing in a star player for one season, and giving up key roster players and top prospects to do so, isn't the same as just offering a guy his contract in free agency or something like that. There is "interest" and then there is "interest at what cost".

Nobody is trading for Marner with the idea of him being a 1-year solution.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

That would not be a very smart team. This isn't an Eichel where he's a complete unknown. Marner has 8 years of playoff futility behind him. He and his family/team are known whiners. No good team will want to pay the absurd prices (cap and assets) for that circus

I honestly don't think his playoff performance hurts him anywhere as close as the fact that he only has one year left and will want a huge contract and will only sign with a handful of teams (like any high-value UFA). That's the big one here. Toronto may end up having to deal him as a rental, which would still get a good return but not huge.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Correct. All you need is 1, maybe 2, willing to pay the price tag.

The Leafs would be idiots to place ANY significant value on Saros. He has 1 year left, and then is likely to command a price well in excess of $7m. That year, is probably going to be a re-tooling year for the Leafs. Teams don't win cups with high priced goalies; as you will always run into a team that has a goalie who duels with them for half the price.

Sure, if you receive 2 offers from Nashville (and their offer happens to be the best one)...

one being Novak, Evangelista and Saros; and the other being Novak, Evangelista and a 2nd; might as well take Saros as it gives you at least a solid situation for this year and another year to find a better solution.

But, Saros does not at all move the needle in a Marner trade. The list of goalies that "move the needle" for Marner are probably Shesterkin, Oettenger, Swayman, Demko, etc... and none of those guys are being traded.



Nobody is trading for Marner with the idea of him being a 1-year solution.

Nobody is trading long term pieces for Marner while he is under a 1 year contract.

Don't you find it a bit hypocritical to be suggesting that Saros isn't of interest because he has 1 year left, while then turning around and suggesting that Marner's contract status isn't hurting his value?

 

[seanlinden]

That would not be a very smart team. This isn't an Eichel where he's a complete unknown. Marner has 8 years of playoff futility behind him. He and his family/team are known whiners. No good team will want to pay the absurd prices (cap and assets) for that circus

Eichel's actually a really good reference point in the discussion... a guy who you had no idea if he was going to be able to play or at what level. A guy who wanted to have a surgery never before performed on a professional hockey player.

He returned Peyton Krebs (former 17th OA), Alex Tuch (A Very Solid top 6 Winger), and 2 high draft picks.

Marner's a known commodity. He's averaged 100 point pace over the past 6 years and excellent defensive metrics.

I honestly don't think his playoff performance hurts him anywhere as close as the fact that he only has one year left and will want a huge contract and will only sign with a handful of teams (like any high-value UFA). That's the big one here. Toronto may end up having to deal him as a rental, which would still get a good return but not huge.

Yes, that will certainly limit his shoppability.

But, the same could have been said for Tkachuk, who could have signed a $9m qualifying offer or an arbitration award after a huge outlier season, to take him to unrestricted free agency. He controlled his destination by limiting the teams he was willing to sign.

 

[JKG33]

Eichel's actually a really good reference point in the discussion... a guy who you had no idea if he was going to be able to play or at what level. A guy who wanted to have a surgery never before performed on a professional hockey player.

He returned Peyton Krebs (former 17th OA), Alex Tuch (A Very Solid top 6 Winger), and 2 high draft picks.

Marner's a known commodity. He's averaged 100 point pace over the past 6 years and excellent defensive metrics.

Like I've said, Marner is also a known playoff commodity which is not in his/the Leafs favor. Eichel was younger, plays the more valuable position, and signed longer at a more reasonable cap hit. That trade is still less than what many Leafs fans are asking for, and even a comparable return would be an overpayment in this situation.

 

[BJCOLLINS]

IMHO, Marner is a very good, overpriced & undersized perimeter player who plays well in the regular season. Poorly in the playoffs, when the game becomes tight. His attitude & personal accountability is suspect. He will also be demanding a raise at the end of this season.
That’s a lot to take on when you’re looking to move assets for this player.

 

[seanlinden]

Nobody is trading long term pieces for Marner while he is under a 1 year contract.

Don't you find it a bit hypocritical to be suggesting that Saros isn't of interest because he has 1 year left, while then turning around and suggesting that Marner's contract status isn't hurting his value?

Nobody is trading for Marner period without a very solid understanding of knowing he's interested in resigning and his demands. An extension with a new team probably gets announced on the day of the trade, or if a trade occurs pre-July 1, then it probably happens in early July.

No, I don't find it at all hypocritical. I don't believe a team can with with Saros at $8m. By the time $8m goaltending is "the norm", he's going to be well into his mid 30s and probably not the goaltender he is today. "I" don't value Saros, because I assume what his contract demands are going to be, and would rather let him walk then negotiate, and I don't believe in trading for 1-year players with the mindset of trying to flip them.

I do believe a team can win with Marner at $11m or $12m. It's just not Toronto where they have Matthews & Nylander at big cap hits already.

 

[seanlinden]

Like I've said, Marner is also a known playoff commodity which is not in his/the Leafs favor. Eichel was younger, plays the more valuable position, and signed longer at a more reasonable cap hit. That trade is still less than what many Leafs fans are asking for, and even a comparable return would be an overpayment in this situation.

Not neccesssarily.

A lot of teams will look at the skill he has, and figure that if they can just get him in teh right situation / with the right structure around him, they can carry over his regular season production to the playoffs.

Heck, take him away from Matthews, get him in a position where he's expected to score and not pass all the time throughout the regular season, and that could make him a far more dangerous and less predictable playoff player.

Don't forget, he does have 50 points in 57 playoff games, and has been over a point per game in 2 of the last 3 playoffs.

 

[JKG33]

Not neccesssarily.

A lot of teams will look at the skill he has, and figure that if they can just get him in teh right situation / with the right structure around him, they can carry over his regular season production to the playoffs.

Heck, take him away from Matthews, get him in a position where he's expected to score and not pass all the time throughout the regular season, and that could make him a far more dangerous and less predictable playoff player.

Don't forget, he does have 50 points in 57 playoff games, and has been over a point per game in 2 of the last 3 playoffs.

And not once has he lived up to his cap hit in the playoffs. And this is a guy who won the last contract negotiation, and will undoubtedly be looking to cash in again. Team aren't going to be giving up major assets for that privilege

 

[Strangle]

You know UFA status affects the value

He’s not a UFA, this isn’t a deadline deal

Is Saros value a 2nd rnd pick because he has a full year left on his deal?

 

[Strangle]

"Everyone" is a pretty big term. Leaf fans are part of "everyone", and apparently at least one person thinks Dallas would give up their 1C and 2D for 1 year of Marner. I think managing expectations is a legitimate statement to make in light of some of the asks from Leaf fans. Non-Leaf fans telling you that your player doesn't have the value your fanbase thinks isn't "everyone".

There is a zero percent chance Marner waives to go to a team for 1 year and then walks to FA

If he gets moved, it’s to a team he will sign long term with. Or he doesn’t get traded. Simple as that

 

[seanlinden]

And not once has he lived up to his cap hit in the playoffs. And this is a guy who won the last contract negotiation, and will undoubtedly be looking to cash in again. Team aren't going to be giving up major assets for that privilege

Honestly... Mitch Marner had 14 points in 11 games last year. Production and league averages tend to fall in the playoffs; and that's basically at his career points per game.

He's also never really been given "a different situation" / structure to be in. All of his playoff samples, especially recent ones, are "this team will go as far as he, Matthews, and Nylander will carry it".

Again, a team will probably look at him as "we've got the right mix to surround Marner with", and make him a consistent force in the playoffs. A Dallas fan apparently suggested Robertson for Marner... you look at what the Stars top 9 would look like if that deal took place.... Hintz, Marner, Seguin, Benn, Marchment, Johnston, Dadonov, Stankovien, maybe Duchene or Pavelski back to round it out.... that's a ton of skill with some nasty pieces as well.

There's 0 chance he goes to another team with multiple $11m forwards that is as top-heavy as the Leafs are, given that there is no other team like that.

 

[JKG33]

Honestly... Mitch Marner had 14 points in 11 games last year. Production and league averages tend to fall in the playoffs; and that's basically at his career points per game.

He's also never really been given "a different situation" / structure to be in. All of his playoff samples, especially recent ones, are "this team will go as far as he, Matthews, and Nylander will carry it".

There's 0 chance he goes to another team with multiple $11m forwards, given that there is no other team like that.

His cap hit would indicate he should be putting the team on his back in a way that McD/Drai/Mac can. Simply scoring points is not enough when the price tag is that high. Have we ever seen a playoffs where Marner won them the series? Even a game?

 

[seanlinden]

His cap hit would indicate he should be putting the team on his back in a way that McD/Drai/Mac can. Simply scoring points is not enough when the price tag is that high. Have we ever seen a playoffs where Marner won them the series? Even a game?

Marner as a pass-first guy will never appear to do that... he does however control the puck / play and ensure his team has posession.. They obviously don't get through Tampa withour Marner's productivity.

There's also very few guys, maybe only 2, that can actually ptu a team on their back like that. Most of the times what you get from $11m these days is Panarin.

 

[DemiGod]

My guess:

Vegas Theodore +
Dallas Hintz + Harley
Nashville Saros + Luke Schenn
Hawks: Vlasic + Tor 2025 first back

No weed

 

[GCK]

Marner may accept a trade but I highly doubt he signs an extension right away. The Cap is projected to be 92M in 2025/26 and the projection for 2026/27 will be available. If he doesn’t re-sign with the leafs he’s most likely going to market after next year.

 

[Fatass]

Correct. All you need is 1, maybe 2, willing to pay the price tag.

The Leafs would be idiots to place ANY significant value on Saros. He has 1 year left, and then is likely to command a price well in excess of $7m. That year, is probably going to be a re-tooling year for the Leafs. Teams don't win cups with high priced goalies; as you will always run into a team that has a goalie who duels with them for half the price.

Sure, if you receive 2 offers from Nashville (and their offer happens to be the best one)...

one being Novak, Evangelista and Saros; and the other being Novak, Evangelista and a 2nd; might as well take Saros as it gives you at least a solid situation for this year and another year to find a better solution.

But, Saros does not at all move the needle in a Marner trade. The list of goalies that "move the needle" for Marner are probably Shesterkin, Oettenger, Swayman, Demko, etc... and none of those guys are being traded.



Nobody is trading for Marner with the idea of him being a 1-year solution.

Marner has to agree to any trade. And no team is trading for him unless there is an agreement to a contract extension. It’s a very difficult trade, especially with the nmc and Marner only have one year to UFA status.

 

[seanlinden]

Marner has to agree to any trade. And no team is trading for him unless there is an agreement to a contract extension. It’s a very difficult trade, especially with the nmc and Marner only have one year to UFA status.

Yes, that's well established.

Marner controls his destination. It's going to be a select few teams that are actually going to be able to make an offer for him. However, for those teams, they'll be able to make offers knowing that they'll be able to get him signed, because he's an active participant in the first place.

 

[seanlinden]

Marner may accept a trade but I highly doubt he signs an extension right away. The Cap is projected to be 92M in 2025/26 and the projection for 2026/27 will be available. If he doesn’t re-sign with the leafs he’s most likely going to market after next year.

Marner hit a homerun on his last deal, adn is now basically being run out of his hometown... without a cup to show for it.

He's coming off a $65m contract and and his next one is going to be very close to $100m if he signs it this offseason.

Call me crazy, but I think Marner would have to be crazy to turn down that kind of contract in hopes of grabbing $102 or $105m if league projections continue to grow.

 

[HockeyVirus]

Marner may accept a trade but I highly doubt he signs an extension right away. The Cap is projected to be 92M in 2025/26 and the projection for 2026/27 will be available. If he doesn’t re-sign with the leafs he’s most likely going to market after next year.

I think it is the opposite and he wants the bag. Next season is a massive risk for him. He comes back to a Leafs team and fanbase disgruntled with him when everyone knows he will leave. Good chance he does not get prime minutes and usage.

Or he goes to a new team, new system. It takes him 6 months to find his place and produce and on paper he takes a step back. Both scenarios cost him.

I think he is going to take the bag he is guaranteed now. He wants the 8 years 110 million contract. It is in his interest to find his new home this offseason.

 

[yeaher]

Andre Burakovsky, Shane Wright and Ty Nelson for an extended Marner after July 1st.

Marner to Seattle makes the most sense and Wright is the caliber of prospect that the Leafs market would immediately hype in a trade where they're giving up the biggest name.

Seattle's got the cap flexibility to make a big add. And Marner is bigger than any other name likely to be out there in the offseason. And I imagine that market would love a 1-2 punch of him and Beniers pushing them back into the playoff picture.

Beniers and Marner have more commercials than they do series wins, both of them together on the same team would likely be underwhelming but who knows.

 

[BJCOLLINS]

Marner as a pass-first guy will never appear to do that... he does however control the puck / play and ensure his team has posession.. They obviously don't get through Tampa withour Marner's productivity.

There's also very few guys, maybe only 2, that can actually ptu a team on their back like that. Most of the times what you get from $11m these days is Panarin.

Come on man? For the playoffs I’d rather have Hyman than Marner! You can’t deny that……it’s a basic hockey eye test. Add to that their playoff performances……you can google the vids, facts man.

 

[herzausstein]

Your basing his value on a flawed premise. Who said he'll only go to one or two teams?

How do you know he will waive at all? If a player gets a NMC, he is in complete control of where he gets sent to.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Nobody is trading for Marner period without a very solid understanding of knowing he's interested in resigning and his demands. An extension with a new team probably gets announced on the day of the trade, or if a trade occurs pre-July 1, then it probably happens in early July.

No, I don't find it at all hypocritical. I don't believe a team can with with Saros at $8m. By the time $8m goaltending is "the norm", he's going to be well into his mid 30s and probably not the goaltender he is today. "I" don't value Saros, because I assume what his contract demands are going to be, and would rather let him walk then negotiate, and I don't believe in trading for 1-year players with the mindset of trying to flip them.

I do believe a team can win with Marner at $11m or $12m. It's just not Toronto where they have Matthews & Nylander at big cap hits already.

So you are expecting a Tkachuk style trade then?

He’s not a UFA, this isn’t a deadline deal

Is Saros value a 2nd rnd pick because he has a full year left on his deal?

Bad comparable because Saros probably isn't available right now, but I will respond to your question with a question. Would Saros' value be higher if he had 4 years remaining on his deal, or just the one he has now?

 

[Torontonian]

Haven't really read through this entire thread, only thing I will say, is if Toronto is trading a extended Marner, I do not think Toronto goes down the picks and prospect route, but goes for 1st + dman + forward route (i'd assume top 4 dman and middle 6 forward + a 1st). both players having 3-4 years of term.