Rumor: Pagnotta: Keep an eye on DAL/NSH/VGK/CHI if Marner is shopped

[seanlinden]

Regarding Saros and Marner both having one year left on their deal...

Re-signing Marner would cost pretty much the same as his current contract. Maybe even less considering the tax advantages from 3/4 of these teams.
Saros is look at atleast a 3M raise from his current contract.

That does matter.

It's not even the "differences" required... an acquiring team could probably get Marner at $5.5m this year, then he'd need a $6m raise.

It's what those future deals look like, along with the mechanics of negotiating them.

1. Marner's future deal is going to be $11 or $12m. He just turned 27, and with a constantly escalating cap, that deal is likely to be "good" for the vast majority of its duration.

2. Saros future deal is probably going to be $8m. He just turned 29, and most of the goalies around the league currently operate with a semi-ceiling of $6m. In every playoff year, you're likely to come accross 1-2 goalies that give Saros-level performance for under $4m. It's really hard for a team to overcome $4m in "Bad money" in a playoff series.

3. Marner is going to have to be an active participant in a trade because of his NMC. You can't really tell Marner "we have a deal with Nashville that is contingent upon Saros signing with us, are you cool with that?" With Marner having a NMC, he's pretty much the only player that can be "consulted" as part of the deal process.

 

[Space umpire]

"Toronto's guy" is the centrepiece of the deal and has a full NMC. He's an active participant in the trade, and if an extension will almost certainly be part of the deal or very shortly thereafter. Thsi is what seems to be missing everyone in this thread. If Marner has picked "X Team" to go to, it's because he's probably signing there.

His future contract is one that you should be able to win with.

"Nashville's guy" is not hte centrepiece of the deal, and has no trade protection so you have no idea if he's at all interested in being a Leaf for a long time.

Logisitically, you can't really do a deal where players on both sides have to agree to waiving/extensions.

Even if he does want to be a Leaf, he's probably signing a contract that makes him a winning-prohibitive goalie, given the way goalies are paid this year.

This portion of your post is total bullshit.

1st off anywhere you use the word “probably” is something you simply made up.
There is no evidence Marner easily agrees to something you can win with (quite the contrary)
There is no evidence Soros contract would be “winning prohibitive”.
Both sides can certainly work new fair deals but Marner a set up guy winger at 12 mill is more “winning prohibitive” than Soros a true #1 goalie is at 7 mill.
There is no evidence it is a logistical impossibility.

I guess if your GM can’t walk and chew gum at the same time the possibility of getting the goalie agree to contract parameters may be beyond his ability but it is something a good team would do.

 

[JKG33]

Regarding Saros and Marner both having one year left on their deal...

Re-signing Marner would cost pretty much the same as his current contract. Maybe even less considering the tax advantages from 3/4 of these teams.
Saros is look at atleast a 3M raise from his current contract.

That does matter.

Not really, because the Leafs would have Marner's bloated contract removed from the books so they can afford Saros at whatever he wants

 

[seanlinden]

This portion of your post is total bullshit.

1st off anywhere you use the word “probably” is something you simply made up.
There is no evidence Marner easily agrees to something you can win with (quite the contrary)
There is no evidence Soros contract would be “winning prohibitive”.
Both sides can certainly work new fair deals but Marner a set up guy winger at 12 mill is more “winning prohibitive” than Soros a true #1 goalie is at 7 mill.
There is no evidence it is a logistical impossibility.

I guess if your GM can’t walk and chew gum at the same time the possibility of getting the goalie agree to contract parameters may be beyond his ability but it is something a good team would do.

Suggesting that Marner is willing to sign wherever he's willing to be traded is simply logic... why risk his $90m+ deal?

Marner at $12m may be a tough pill in it's first year just like Matthews & Nylander's are a tough pill this year, but the cap continues to rise, and that number will become less significant over time.

Look at Saros' resume. He'll easily be able to command $8m; and look at the rest of the goalies in the league. Only 5 guys make over $6m, and one of them is John Gibson at $6.4m.

Because goalies are so inherently upredictable, very few guys are worthy of the big dollar investment. Once they're able to achieve that big contract, they become highly susceptible to being outdueled by a guy making half or less, with a better team infront of him. It's what happened to Andrei Vasilevsky last year against Ilya Samsonov. It's what happened this year to Connor Hellebuyck.

Heck, even Sorokin, he was decent with a .909 and 3.01 GAA over 56 games... but...

UPL in Buffalo put up a .910 / 2.57 in 54 games.
Charlie Lindgren in Washington put up a .911 / 2.67 in 50 games.
Petr Mrazek, of all people, put up a .9.08 / 3.05 in 56 games for CHICAGO.
Joey Daccord put up a .916 / 2.53 in 50 games.
Cam Talbot put up a .913 / 2.50 in 54 games.

All of these guys were likely better than Sorokin this past year. Their cap hits:
$850k = UPL
$1.1m = Lindgren
$3.8m = Mrazek
$1.2m = Daccord
$2m = Talbot (who also happens to be a UFA)

The reality is, spending money on goaltending is fraught with issues; and generally not the wisest place to be investing. Of those 5, 1 was drafted 54th overall, 1 was an expansion pick who cleared waivers in October 2022, 2 were UFA signings, and 1 was paid by Toronto to take Mrazek on.

The Leafs have Joseph Woll and Dennis Hildeby. They have a good enough group of forwards to get them to the playoffs even with sporadic goaltending. Look no further than Samsonov going 23-7-8; a points percentage of .711 despite a save percentage under .900 and GAA above 3. Only 1 team in the league was better than .711 this year.

They need to get a veteran guy who isn't going to be phased by the pressures of Toronto, but they should not be spending $7-8m long term to do so.

 

[BJCOLLINS]

Why wasn’t he a finisher in his first year in Edmonton? He put up the same goals and points he did in Toronto. It’s almost like getting consistent top unit PP time for the first time in his career had something to do with his scoring increase.

Hyman was fine his first year…..good teams are patient with talent.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Hyman was fine his first year…..good teams are patient with talent.

Maybe I just don’t understand, if the thing he was missing was players who could dish him the puck which he apparently didn’t have in Toronto, why didn’t they dish him the puck his first year in Edmonton? He put up the same numbers he did in Toronto and didn’t increase them until he started getting 1st unit PP time. His point totals outside the PP are basically the same paces he had in Toronto. Almost the entire difference is that he’s getting 15 goals + 26 points on the PP in Edmonton vs a career high of 3 goals 6 points in Toronto. Why isn’t he getting fed at ES, you’d think the difference between a guy with no playmaking skills on his line and the best playmaker ever would be noticeable.

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

Marner to Dallas for Ryan Suter. Leafs are going to turn back time with Suter.

 

[Bizz]

VGK oughta be the front runners of this group since they aren't subject to the Salary Cap like the other teams are.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

So why are we assuming Marner is gunning for that 8th year? Maybe he's taking a page out of AM34s book and going for 5 years , he's only what 28? Get your bag mitchy !

 

[BB88]

Suggesting that Marner is willing to sign wherever he's willing to be traded is simply logic... why risk his $90m+ deal?

Marner at $12m may be a tough pill in it's first year just like Matthews & Nylander's are a tough pill this year, but the cap continues to rise, and that number will become less significant over time.

Look at Saros' resume. He'll easily be able to command $8m; and look at the rest of the goalies in the league. Only 5 guys make over $6m, and one of them is John Gibson at $6.4m.

Because goalies are so inherently upredictable, very few guys are worthy of the big dollar investment. Once they're able to achieve that big contract, they become highly susceptible to being outdueled by a guy making half or less, with a better team infront of him. It's what happened to Andrei Vasilevsky last year against Ilya Samsonov. It's what happened this year to Connor Hellebuyck.

Heck, even Sorokin, he was decent with a .909 and 3.01 GAA over 56 games... but...

UPL in Buffalo put up a .910 / 2.57 in 54 games.
Charlie Lindgren in Washington put up a .911 / 2.67 in 50 games.
Petr Mrazek, of all people, put up a .9.08 / 3.05 in 56 games for CHICAGO.
Joey Daccord put up a .916 / 2.53 in 50 games.
Cam Talbot put up a .913 / 2.50 in 54 games.

All of these guys were likely better than Sorokin this past year. Their cap hits:
$850k = UPL
$1.1m = Lindgren
$3.8m = Mrazek
$1.2m = Daccord
$2m = Talbot (who also happens to be a UFA)

The reality is, spending money on goaltending is fraught with issues; and generally not the wisest place to be investing. Of those 5, 1 was drafted 54th overall, 1 was an expansion pick who cleared waivers in October 2022, 2 were UFA signings, and 1 was paid by Toronto to take Mrazek on.

The Leafs have Joseph Woll and Dennis Hildeby. They have a good enough group of forwards to get them to the playoffs even with sporadic goaltending. Look no further than Samsonov going 23-7-8; a points percentage of .711 despite a save percentage under .900 and GAA above 3. Only 1 team in the league was better than .711 this year.

They need to get a veteran guy who isn't going to be phased by the pressures of Toronto, but they should not be spending $7-8m long term to do so.

Marner will have to become one of the best playoff performers for that 12M to make sense at any point

Paying face of the franchise money to someone who’s not is never going to be a smart use of cap

 

[Rec T]

and with the cap perpetually rising every year now, something that is not going to be prohibitive to winning.

Perpetually? Did you have the same attitude back in 2019?

Is it expected to go up at least in the near future? Sure. But as the pandemic showed, things can fall apart everywhere really quickly with aftershocks that last years.

Unless a GM is already on the hot seat & is throwing around money trying to keep his job, I'd think that most other GMs at least have it in the back of their minds that 'something' might happen (not expected but 'might') & have Plans B, C, & D on how to guide their team through whatever that 'something' is. One of which being not relying on an ever increasing stream of money flowing their way.

Will Marner get a raise? Probably (if he deserves it or not is a different discussion), but the number of teams willing to do so, potentially really handcuffing themselves, & that he'd be willing to waive to go to is extremely short...if it even exists at all. He may have to decide between getting a raise/large contract or taking a decent salary on a competitive team.

 

[BJCOLLINS]

Maybe I just don’t understand, if the thing he was missing was players who could dish him the puck which he apparently didn’t have in Toronto, why didn’t they dish him the puck his first year in Edmonton? He put up the same numbers he did in Toronto and didn’t increase them until he started getting 1st unit PP time. His point totals outside the PP are basically the same paces he had in Toronto. Almost the entire difference is that he’s getting 15 goals + 26 points on the PP in Edmonton vs a career high of 3 goals 6 points in Toronto. Why isn’t he getting fed at ES, you’d think the difference between a guy with no playmaking skills on his line and the best playmaker ever would be noticeable.

Players evolve, mature & learn to use their body positioning better. You have to think it’s amazing to play with the two best players on the planet.

 

[BTO]

No, you didn't understand the language. I was not attempting to write fit. Hit is the correct word.

Sure it is.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Sure it is.

There you go. With just a little effort, you got it.

 

[BTO]

There you go. With just a little effort, you got it.

And you don't if you think Marner throws more hits than he does fits.

 

[Leaf Fans]

And you don't if you think Marner throws more hits than he does fits.

That is just something that you just made up.

 

[BTO]

That is just something that you just made up.

Yeah, I made it up lol. Anyway, whatever, enjoy Marner in Vegas or wherever. Even if it's not next year it'll be the year after.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Yeah, I made it up lol. Anyway, whatever, enjoy Marner in Vegas or wherever. Even if it's not next year it'll be the year after.

I know you did. Sure, I will enjoy watching him play.

 

[Habs Halifax]

So why are we assuming Marner is gunning for that 8th year? Maybe he's taking a page out of AM34s book and going for 5 years , he's only what 28? Get your bag mitchy !

He's already earned $52.1M and $8M more after this coming season. At this stage, he is after team fit and a chance to win. Still going to get paid yes but term won't matter as much. I agree there. This is not a situation where he was on a bridge or team friendly deal and now wants the max deal. He already got it with his current contract. He'll be well over $100M for his career when it's over. $40M more to go and he easily gets that on his next contract.

The other angle is the pressure in Toronto. He might be very open to a less pressurized hockey market after all the focus/attention he has gone through in Toronto and the lack of success.

I am very curious to see what he can do with another team. Does he go to another heavy top 6 (like Hyman) or does he go to a team with OK top 6 depth.

 

[FerrisRox]

I think you're kidding yourself if you don't think there's going to be a long, long, long lineup of teams that would absolutely love to have Mitch Marner.

Even if there weren't issues with compete level and whispers (that site rules forbid me from discussing) with his "attitude" the simple fact that he is over-paid, has one of the highest cap hits in the league, and is a year away from unrestricted free agency make the notion that there would be a "long, long, long" line to acquire him absolutely hilarious.

You are completely clueless if you actually believe that.

 

[FerrisRox]

It's going to be a select few teams that are actually going to be able to make an offer for him.

So there's going to be a "long, long, long" line of teams that want him, but only a few that will make an offer.

Got it.

 

[hullsy47]

Hyman was fine his first year…..good teams are patient with talent.

signing marner for 2 million too much cost the leafs hyman
now ud have to offer marner plus a 1st rounder to get hyman back

 

[BJCOLLINS]

So there's going to be a "long, long, long" line of teams that want him, but only a few that will make an offer.

Got it.

Also, keep an eye on GM Treliving. He has a tendency for making poor deals….the leafs could end up with a Huberdeau type move that sets the team backwards. Marner puts up points when playing with players that make him look a little better than he is.
Treliving gave away K Thachuk when he thought he would lose him to UFA and he is head and shoulders a better player than Marner regardless of stats & analytics.

 

[joestevens29]

Also, keep an eye on GM Treliving. He has a tendency for making poor deals….the leafs could end up with a Huberdeau type move that sets the team backwards. Marner puts up points when playing with players that make him look a little better than he is.
Treliving gave away K Thachuk when he thought he would lose him to UFA and he is head and shoulders a better player than Marner regardless of stats & analytics.

I wouldn't say he gave him away. The Flames received a pretty good package considering the situation they were in with Tkachuk.

Mistake he made was signing Huberdeau and Weegar before seeing what they could do in Calgary. The whole hockey world new Calgary was on the down swing and Treliving locked those guys up. Would've been better off flipping those guys when he acquired them or waiting to see how the team was doing and moving them before the deadline.

Even performing poorly he would've got a good return for Huberdeau at 50% off and then make your decision on Weegar.

 

[Habs Halifax]

signing marner for 2 million too much cost the leafs hyman
now ud have to offer marner plus a 1st rounder to get hyman back

This is true but any cap savings should have been allocated to the D side. Pietrangello was the guy the Leafs needed to add. Cap space issues yes but that's the type of guy that was required. Rolling a Rielly/Pietrangello pairing 25 min's a game changes things.

I wouldn't say he gave him away. The Flames received a pretty good package considering the situation they were in with Tkachuk.

Mistake he made was signing Huberdeau and Weegar before seeing what they could do in Calgary. The whole hockey world new Calgary was on the down swing and Treliving locked those guys up. Would've been better off flipping those guys when he acquired them or waiting to see how the team was doing and moving them before the deadline.

Even performing poorly he would've got a good return for Huberdeau at 50% off and then make your decision on Weegar.

This might be a case of the Flames ownership not wanting a rebuild and pushing for the business side of things. Flames were a top 10 contender IMO and it hit them all at once with Gaudreau and Tkachuk. Those are two substantial assets. Going from contender to complete rebuild takes guts most don't have. Do you have a past example of a team doing this?

Huberdeau's fall is almost historic like Gomez level. Some would have said Huberdeau will not be the same in his 30+ years but not so sure they would have predicted this kind of fall.

I'd like to know what the futures offers would have been for Tkachuk.