Rumor: Pagnotta: Keep an eye on DAL/NSH/VGK/CHI if Marner is shopped

[Beukeboom Fan]

Suggesting that Marner is willing to sign wherever he's willing to be traded is simply logic... why risk his $90m+ deal?

Marner at $12m may be a tough pill in it's first year just like Matthews & Nylander's are a tough pill this year, but the cap continues to rise, and that number will become less significant over time.

Look at Saros' resume. He'll easily be able to command $8m; and look at the rest of the goalies in the league. Only 5 guys make over $6m, and one of them is John Gibson at $6.4m.

Because goalies are so inherently upredictable, very few guys are worthy of the big dollar investment. Once they're able to achieve that big contract, they become highly susceptible to being outdueled by a guy making half or less, with a better team infront of him. It's what happened to Andrei Vasilevsky last year against Ilya Samsonov. It's what happened this year to Connor Hellebuyck.

Heck, even Sorokin, he was decent with a .909 and 3.01 GAA over 56 games... but...

UPL in Buffalo put up a .910 / 2.57 in 54 games.
Charlie Lindgren in Washington put up a .911 / 2.67 in 50 games.
Petr Mrazek, of all people, put up a .9.08 / 3.05 in 56 games for CHICAGO.
Joey Daccord put up a .916 / 2.53 in 50 games.
Cam Talbot put up a .913 / 2.50 in 54 games.

All of these guys were likely better than Sorokin this past year. Their cap hits:
$850k = UPL
$1.1m = Lindgren
$3.8m = Mrazek
$1.2m = Daccord
$2m = Talbot (who also happens to be a UFA)

The reality is, spending money on goaltending is fraught with issues; and generally not the wisest place to be investing. Of those 5, 1 was drafted 54th overall, 1 was an expansion pick who cleared waivers in October 2022, 2 were UFA signings, and 1 was paid by Toronto to take Mrazek on.

The Leafs have Joseph Woll and Dennis Hildeby. They have a good enough group of forwards to get them to the playoffs even with sporadic goaltending. Look no further than Samsonov going 23-7-8; a points percentage of .711 despite a save percentage under .900 and GAA above 3. Only 1 team in the league was better than .711 this year.

They need to get a veteran guy who isn't going to be phased by the pressures of Toronto, but they should not be spending $7-8m long term to do so.

I don't necessarily disagree, but with that said - it's rumored that the Leafs want to upgrade their goaltending. That's not anyone in this thread trying to push Saros, it's people who theoretically know more than us on the board saying that is what the Leafs want to do. IMO, there aren't a lot of upgrades available, and Saros is one of the few whose team would also be looking for a MM type of player. What type of goaltending deal would you actually be comfortable with?

Listing a bunch of goalies who were successful last year is disengenious because that is the way it always is with the confirmation bias of being able to look at who succeeded last year. Would anyone have been confident last year with a Mrazek/D'accord combo? Hell no, and justifiably so. Does anyone expect them both to be good in 2024/25? I wouldn't want to put money on that!

I think that the Leafs leadership want to upgrade goaltending to minimize the risk from backlash on their performance from a team construction perspective. If you look at the Leafs recent play-off performances - did their goalie every "pull a Fleury" and cost them the series? Maybe the goalie didn't steal them a series, but that's a lot to ask when you're going in with "adequate" goaltending.

 

[Boondock]

My guess:

Vegas Theodore +
Dallas Hintz + Harley
Nashville Saros + Luke Schenn
Hawks: Vlasic + Tor 2025 first back

Is there a reason the Dallas return is twice the value as the other teams?

 

[The Management]

I don't necessarily disagree, but with that said - it's rumored that the Leafs want to upgrade their goaltending. That's not anyone in this thread trying to push Saros, it's people who theoretically know more than us on the board saying that is what the Leafs want to do. IMO, there aren't a lot of upgrades available, and Saros is one of the few whose team would also be looking for a MM type of player. What type of goaltending deal would you actually be comfortable with?

Listing a bunch of goalies who were successful last year is disengenious because that is the way it always is with the confirmation bias of being able to look at who succeeded last year. Would anyone have been confident last year with a Mrazek/D'accord combo? Hell no, and justifiably so. Does anyone expect them both to be good in 2024/25? I wouldn't want to put money on that!

I think that the Leafs leadership want to upgrade goaltending to minimize the risk from backlash on their performance from a team construction perspective. If you look at the Leafs recent play-off performances - did their goalie every "pull a Fleury" and cost them the series? Maybe the goalie didn't steal them a series, but that's a lot to ask when you're going in with "adequate" goaltending.

Yeah, I'm onboard with the premise that goaltending is a risking piggy bank to put all your coins into, but there's no way I see Brad Treliving opening the season with a duo of Joseph Woll and Dennis Hildeby. It just seems unlikely, to me. Not necessarily saying it's a formula for success, but if Brad's plan is to build from "net out" then I wouldn't be suprised to see him target a goalie like Saros in a theoretical Marner trade. Of course, it's all just fun speculation at this point.

 

[seanlinden]

I don't necessarily disagree, but with that said - it's rumored that the Leafs want to upgrade their goaltending. That's not anyone in this thread trying to push Saros, it's people who theoretically know more than us on the board saying that is what the Leafs want to do. IMO, there aren't a lot of upgrades available, and Saros is one of the few whose team would also be looking for a MM type of player. What type of goaltending deal would you actually be comfortable with?

Listing a bunch of goalies who were successful last year is disengenious because that is the way it always is with the confirmation bias of being able to look at who succeeded last year. Would anyone have been confident last year with a Mrazek/D'accord combo? Hell no, and justifiably so. Does anyone expect them both to be good in 2024/25? I wouldn't want to put money on that!

I think that the Leafs leadership want to upgrade goaltending to minimize the risk from backlash on their performance from a team construction perspective. If you look at the Leafs recent play-off performances - did their goalie every "pull a Fleury" and cost them the series? Maybe the goalie didn't steal them a series, but that's a lot to ask when you're going in with "adequate" goaltending.

Just because they want to upgrade their goaltending, doesn't mean it makes any sense to use Marner to do it.

Listing those goalies is meant to display the "disenguity" of the goaltending position as a whole. The more you pay generally gives you the "higher" floor of performance, but you're still always going to get outdueled by somebody making half. It's why so few goalies are able to command the big bucks.

There are other goalies available. Jacob Markstrom would be at the top of my list, his 2-year term is perfect if the Leafs can get a little bit of retention. John Gibson might be a reasonable target with the appropriate amount of retention. Heck, Cam Talbot has been very solid for 4 of the last 5 years; and would not only be an upgrade, but a reliable veteran presence.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Players evolve, mature & learn to use their body positioning better. You have to think it’s amazing to play with the two best players on the planet.

The big thing in Edmonton was that Hyman learned to lift pucks in tight, when he was in Toronto he had the most chances in tight in the league a few years in a row IIRC and he had zero goals from that area that weren’t slid in along the ice or shovelled in through a scrum. If he had that JVR skillset in Toronto he would have been on the powerplay and putting up 75-85 point seasons as well.

 

[Strangle]

Marner might only have one team that will agree to his contract demands. 12.5 x 8 is a lot. Then what kind of negotiating leverage do the Leafs have?

This is easy, they resign him cheaper

 

[BJCOLLINS]

Marner might only have one team that will agree to his contract demands. 12.5 x 8 is a lot. Then what kind of negotiating leverage do the Leafs have?

Personally I believe the leafs will be disappointed with the return offered in a Marner deal. He’s obviously a talented regular season player who can pass the puck through a needle and tremendous on the pp.
My question is if the leafs can’t get the type of return they know his value demands……do they resign him to the extended term/$ he wants rather than letting him go for nothing? He is in total control.

 

[SEALBound]

Marner might only have one team that will agree to his contract demands. 12.5 x 8 is a lot. Then what kind of negotiating leverage do the Leafs have?

I don't think he gets that. If that's truly wants that, he should take a super short term deal like 1-2 years for $10mil and then re-establish himself as being worth that, ideally with a strong playoff performance.

Leafs will point to RS stats but anywhere Marner likely wants to go will point to the playoff disappointments. It's a tough spot to be in. Toronto may be faced with accepting a "rental" return. A premium rental return mind you but still a rental return.

Guentzel went for Bunting, 2 B prospects, a C prospect, and 2nd. Wouldn't shock me to see Marner go for that. Using the Penguins as the example: Bunting/Smith + Broz + Ponomarov + Plante + Phill 2nd. I could see that. Underwhelming but realistic.

 

[seanlinden]

Personally I believe the leafs will be disappointed with the return offered in a Marner deal. He’s obviously a talented regular season player who can pass the puck through a needle and tremendous on the pp.
My question is if the leafs can’t get the type of return they know his value demands……do they resign him to the extended term/$ he wants rather than letting him go for nothing? He is in total control.

Therein lies the question of "discipline" that the Leafs management has seemingly lacked over the last few years.

If they're disciplined and have self control, they should let him walk for nothing rather than sign him to another premium contract.