Rumor: Pagnotta: Keep an eye on DAL/NSH/VGK/CHI if Marner is shopped

[seanlinden]

Ah so ignoring all the past examples this is the one that breaks the norm?

Marner having 1 year left on his contract absolutely will affect his trade value, it always does. Being a Leaf player won’t change that sorry

I was responding to "UFA status affecting his value".. not whether he has 1 year left vs. multiple.

Ultimately, because he has a full NMC, Marner will control where he goes, and presumably only select destinations that he's interested in signing a contract with.

Because of the calibre of player he is, along with his age, the team that ultimately "ponies up" for Marner is going to be one that looks at him as a long term asset rather than a 1-year rental. The effect of that is cutting out all of the "less serious" suitors because they just won't be able to justify the value.

For a team looking at him as a long term asset, they know they're going to be able to resign him.... understanding that Marner wants to be there (or else he would not have waived his NMC).

Now, if he had 2 years left and no trade protection, you could argue that a less desirable place might be teh eventual "trade winner" hoping they can convince Marner to want to stay....

But for a team where Marner wants to be, 1 year vs 2 years doesn't really make a huge difference. There are pros and cons from the acquiring team perspective.

 

[SEALBound]

You are wrong. Teams are not interested ins crewing over the Leafs they are interested in improving their team. Marner has a lot of value to give to a franchise. Only need a few teams interested to get the return where it needs to be and there will be many teams interested

I never said that teams wanted to "screw over the TML", I just said that they have very little leverage in the matter and are not trading from a position of strength. You're going to run into several issues when it comes time to get the teams interested:
1. Marner will have to want to go there.
2. The team will need to give up what the TML think is fair.
3. The team will have to have cap space.
3a. If the team doesn't have good cap space, you will have to be willing to take cap back.
4. The types of teams I imagine Marner being interested in are contenders which don't typically have cap space.
5. By the time you find a team with cap space that is also on Marner's list, I imagine other teams will have bowed out of the race...so again, I don't think you're going to be able to demand the moon.

It's hardly a far fetched or reaching concept.

What did tkachuk get with only a year left and it being public that he wasn't resigning with Calgary? It seems like every year there's a player everyone says is going to be worth nothing in a trade and exceeds everyone's expectations, why is it always everyone seems this isn't the case when it's a leafs player and they always move the goal post on these threads to justify why they aren't good?

I'm actively grimacing at my screen at the thought of having to explain to you the difference between Tkachuk and Marner. RS points are great but if you can't understand why Tkachuk holds more value, not sure what to really tell you. Maybe watch a game? Check stats? Start a poll?

If Matt Tkachuk's agent announced that he wanted out, 31 GMs would be calling Zito to see what could be done. I do not believe that will be the case with Marner.

I think TML are looking at another Kessel trade. 2 prospects, a 1st, and a cap dump and, perhaps mostly importantly, the cap space.

The only other trade I could see as a potential deal is around Saros+ for Marner.

 

[TS Quint]

Add to that the NMC and Marner’s next contract will be even more than his current 11. Marner controls this situation. The Leafs should be satisfied if Marner will waive and they can clear his whole contract. Don’t take back money.

The only place he gets more than 11 is on the Leafs. There is no way the Leafs can justify anything under $12m after giving Nylander $11.5m. Year in and year out Marner is the better player.

 

[seanlinden]

lmao why do so many people think he has Tkachuk value? Has anyone actually seen Marner throw a hit?

he's the Huberdeau in this situation, and a substantial amount would need to be added to get a Tkachuk

Tkachuk was 1 year away from UFA when traded.

Marner is UFA plus 1 when traded, so a 2-year differnce in age.

Both control their destinations - Tkachuk by determining who he'd sign an extension with, Marner by having a NMC and also controlling who he'd sign an extension with.

Marner has:
- AVERAGED a 100 point pace over the last 6 seasons in Toronto (1.22 points per game)
- 0.367 Goals Per Game over that time, a 30-goal pace.
- Been remarkably consistent production-wise over those years. His lowest PPG was 1.13 and his highest, 1.34.
- Has been fairly durable, missing 37 games over those 6 years. (excluding games lost to COVID cancellations/reductions).

Tkachuk, prior to being traded, we'll take the final 4 years so as to skip his rookie & sophomore years like Marner:
- Averaged an 81 point pace over those 4 seasons. (.99 points per game)
- 0.400 Goals Per Game over that time, a 33-goal pace.
- Was affected by having one GREAT year where he put up a 1.27 point per game pace, the other 3 he was .96, .88. .77.
- A little more durable, having only missed 3 games in the 4 years.

Now, don't get me wrong, Tkachuk has "more intangibles" than Marner and is CERTAINLY a more physical player, which 100% counts for something.

But, Marner's track record of production is substantially better than Tkachuk's was at the time he was traded.

 

[SEALBound]

Tkachuk was 1 year away from UFA when traded.

Marner is UFA plus 1 when traded, so a 2-year differnce in age.

Both control their destinations - Tkachuk by determining who he'd sign an extension with, Marner by having a NMC and also controlling who he'd sign an extension with.

Marner has:
- AVERAGED a 100 point pace over the last 6 seasons in Toronto (1.22 points per game)
- 0.367 Goals Per Game over that time, a 30-goal pace.
- Been remarkably consistent production-wise over those years. His lowest PPG was 1.13 and his highest, 1.34.
- Has been fairly durable, missing 37 games over those 6 years. (excluding games lost to COVID cancellations/reductions).

Tkachuk, prior to being traded, we'll take the final 4 years so as to skip his rookie & sophomore years like Marner:
- Averaged an 81 point pace over those 4 seasons. (.99 points per game)
- 0.400 Goals Per Game over that time, a 33-goal pace.
- Was affected by having one GREAT year where he put up a 1.27 point per game pace, the other 3 he was .96, .88. .77.
- A little more durable, having only missed 3 games in the 4 years.

Now, don't get me wrong, Tkachuk has "more intangibles" than Marner and is CERTAINLY a more physical player, which 100% counts for something.

But, Marner's track record of production is substantially better than Tkachuk's was at the time he was traded.

The red negates everything in bold.

Here's the thing though, just because Tkachuk has more value than Marner doesn't mean Marner doesn't have value. But I highly doubt you're getting a 100pt wing, PMD, and a 1st back for Marner.

I would imagine the contract extensions for both Tkachuk and Huberdeau were fairly easy and straightforward. Unless there was a lengthy, pre-trade extension talk granted and it actually went somewhere, I would be worried about Marner's upcoming demands. He, nor anyone on the TML roster, has shown an affinity for signing value contracts for teams. They want max dollars and will hold out for it. That's a rough "fine print" when it comes to pursuing Marner especially when his playoff performance is so questionable.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

The red negates everything in bold.

Here's the thing though, just because Tkachuk has more value than Marner doesn't mean Marner doesn't have value. But I highly doubt you're getting a 100pt wing, PMD, and a 1st back for Marner.

I would imagine the contract extensions for both Tkachuk and Huberdeau were fairly easy and straightforward. Unless there was a lengthy, pre-trade extension talk granted and it actually went somewhere, I would be worried about Marner's upcoming demands. He, nor anyone on the TML roster, has shown an affinity for signing value contracts for teams. They want max dollars and will hold out for it. That's a rough "fine print" when it comes to pursuing Marner especially when his playoff performance is so questionable.

100% on all of this.

You basically need to find our where Marner wants to sign and work backwards from there. There is really no comparable situations so you're starting from scratch, expectation-wise.

 

[seanlinden]

The red negates everything in bold.

Here's the thing though, just because Tkachuk has more value than Marner doesn't mean Marner doesn't have value. But I highly doubt you're getting a 100pt wing, PMD, and a 1st back for Marner.

I would imagine the contract extensions for both Tkachuk and Huberdeau were fairly easy and straightforward. Unless there was a lengthy, pre-trade extension talk granted and it actually went somewhere, I would be worried about Marner's upcoming demands. He, nor anyone on the TML roster, has shown an affinity for signing value contracts for teams. They want max dollars and will hold out for it. That's a rough "fine print" when it comes to pursuing Marner especially when his playoff performance is so questionable.

Those intangibles may very well negate all of the production advanateges that Marner has proven. If you wanted to argue that Tkachuk when traded might have more value than Marner today, I wouldn't even completely disagree with you. They're certainly similar situations.

Given that, I don't think anyone is expecting a 100 point winger, 2-3 defenceman, and a 1st back for Marner. Most Leafs fans, i think would be beyond thrilled with a decent #2 centre, a #2/3 right shot defenceman, and a 1st. Even if you only get one of the immediate assets and a propect instead, it's probably a deal that the Leafs can make work.

As for contracts, I don't see any reason why Marner's contract demands would be all that complicated... 8 years, full NMC, somewhere between $92 and $100m. If they are more complicated, you can certainly have a negotiating period to find a new deal.

Yes, it's more than Tkachuk's $9.5m, but important to consider the timing of those deals. Tkachuk signed his in the post-Covid, cap-flat environment with a massive debt for the players to work off before the cap increased. Tkachuk got $11.52% of the $82.5m cap in the first year of his deal.

I believe the cap is projected at $92m for next year, which would mean Marner's at $10.6m if at the same cap hit %. There is a jusitifcation for that given the likely year over year cap increases that are coming, wheras fo Tkachuk, it was understood that the cap was going to be flat for a while.

 

[SEALBound]

Those intangibles may very well negate all of the production advanateges that Marner has proven. If you wanted to argue that Tkachuk when traded might have more value than Marner today, I wouldn't even completely disagree with you. They're certainly similar situations.

Given that, I don't think anyone is expecting a 100 point winger, 2-3 defenceman, and a 1st back for Marner. Most Leafs fans, i think would be beyond thrilled with a decent #2 centre, a #2/3 right shot defenceman, and a 1st. Even if you only get one of the immediate assets and a propect instead, it's probably a deal that the Leafs can make work.

As for contracts, I don't see any reason why Marner's contract demands would be all that complicated... 8 years, full NMC, somewhere between $92 and $100m. If they are more complicated, you can certainly have a negotiating period to find a new deal.

Yes, it's more than Tkachuk's $9.5m, but important to consider the timing of those deals. Tkachuk signed his in the post-Covid, cap-flat environment with a massive debt for the players to work off before the cap increased. Tkachuk got $11.52% of the $82.5m cap in the first year of his deal.

I believe the cap is projected at $92m for next year, which would mean Marner's at $10.6m if at the same cap hit %. There is a jusitifcation for that given the likely year over year cap increases that are coming, wheras fo Tkachuk, it was understood that the cap was going to be flat for a while.

Here's the difference, Tkachuk was a much more highly sought-after commodity than what Marner is. Zito knew this and was willing to pay a bit extra. And it's been worth it.

You're not getting 2C, 2/3 dman, and a 1st. If Marner had 3-4 years left at the 10.5, maybe. One year left coming off a major bummer of a playoffs and from a team wanting change, again, you're just not getting that kind of return. But, in all fairness, we may have to throw out what some returns would actually be in order to judge it. Take the teams listed:

You're suggesting:
Dallas: Duchene/Seguin + Lindell + 1st? No. Not happening in any reality we occupy.
Nashville: Novak+Lauzon+1st...maybe
Vegas: Hertl+Theodore+1st? No. Absolutely not.
Chicago: Athansiou+...Zaitsev?+1st? Maybe?

As you can see, there's a pretty big discrepancy between the offers given the criteria you stated. I also think you're underselling the contract extension just a bit. If you're a current contender like say, Dallas or Vegas, I would be skeptical on spending what limited cap they have on players that may not move the needle come playoff time. What you might be looking for is a team like Nashville who will need the boost in the RS to get the playoffs.

If you wanted to target a team, you could target the Penguins. That is a situation where it might make sense. Marner boosts Sid and Geno in the RS to get them into that WC1/2 spot. Then whatever happens, happens. You win a round, and it's a win. They need the skill boost in the top 6 and have a couple decent trade options. I think getting the cap space to make bringing in more depth easier should be the priority unless you target that in the trade. But in that case, I wouldn't be looking for a 2C, #2, and a 1st. I'd be looking for a goalie, a top 6 wing, and maybe a bottom 6 player and hope that it comes in at the $11mil in space Marner is currently taking.

 

[ManofSteel55]

If Marner goes to Dallas Harley is coming back

Yeah right. Toronto fans need to manage expectations here. Marner is a guy who is paid a ton, coming off injuries, has only a year left on his deal, and just laid an egg in the playoffs. I don't forsee any team giving up a major building block for the future like Harley in a deal for Marner. I know Leaf fans seem to think they can expect a trade with an extension in place to increase the return, but I don't see that happening either. It's rare in the NHL to see those deals happen. Marner is an elite talent, but the cap hit alone is going to make it really hard to make a deal for him.

 

[13pacheco31]

Yeah right. Toronto fans need to manage expectations here. Marner is a guy who is paid a ton, coming off injuries, has only a year left on his deal, and just laid an egg in the playoffs. I don't forsee any team giving up a major building block for the future like Harley in a deal for Marner. I know Leaf fans seem to think they can expect a trade with an extension in place to increase the return, but I don't see that happening either. It's rare in the NHL to see those deals happen. Marner is an elite talent, but the cap hit alone is going to make it really hard to make a deal for him.

Manage expectations... Everyone keeps talking as if no team wants him on a thread that's reporting apparently at least 4 teams are interested... You really can't make this shit up

 

[herzausstein]

Manage expectations... Everyone keeps talking as if no team wants him on a thread that's reporting apparently at least 4 teams are interested... You really can't make this shit up

Every team could want him but if he is unwilling to waive his NMC but to only 1 or two teams then that would limit his return. Key thing is going to be where is he willing to go, do the teams want him, and can they afford his caphit.

 

[13pacheco31]

Every team could want him but if he is unwilling to waive his NMC but to only 1 or two teams then that would limit his return. Key thing is going to be where is he willing to go, do the teams want him, and can they afford his caphit.

Your basing his value on a flawed premise. Who said he'll only go to one or two teams?

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Your basing his value on a flawed premise. Who said he'll only go to one or two teams?

He needs to want re-sign a long extension there for Leafs to be able to get a good return. Most players with the power he has will only leave for a few teams. Some players won’t move for ANY team (e.g. Jeff Skinner).

He doesn’t need to approve a trade at all and can just stay in TOR if the perfect situation isn’t presented to him. There are players who do that all the time (again, Jeff Skinner, and Hall would only accept a trade to the bruins at one point).

 

[BTO]

I have seen him throw a hit both in Junior and in the NHL.

You spelled "fit" wrong.

 

[Americanadian]

There’s a good chance Marner’s camp fed this info to Pagnotta. They have historically been willing to give info to anyone that will work with them. It’s more likely I’d think that they fed this info to him than he put together this list after talking to every GM. Every team on this list is a team that makes sense that Marner would waive for.

 

[seanlinden]

Here's the difference, Tkachuk was a much more highly sought-after commodity than what Marner is. Zito knew this and was willing to pay a bit extra. And it's been worth it.

You're not getting 2C, 2/3 dman, and a 1st. If Marner had 3-4 years left at the 10.5, maybe. One year left coming off a major bummer of a playoffs and from a team wanting change, again, you're just not getting that kind of return. But, in all fairness, we may have to throw out what some returns would actually be in order to judge it. Take the teams listed:

You're suggesting:
Dallas: Duchene/Seguin + Lindell + 1st? No. Not happening in any reality we occupy.
Nashville: Novak+Lauzon+1st...maybe
Vegas: Hertl+Theodore+1st? No. Absolutely not.
Chicago: Athansiou+...Zaitsev?+1st? Maybe?

As you can see, there's a pretty big discrepancy between the offers given the criteria you stated. I also think you're underselling the contract extension just a bit. If you're a current contender like say, Dallas or Vegas, I would be skeptical on spending what limited cap they have on players that may not move the needle come playoff time. What you might be looking for is a team like Nashville who will need the boost in the RS to get the playoffs.

If you wanted to target a team, you could target the Penguins. That is a situation where it might make sense. Marner boosts Sid and Geno in the RS to get them into that WC1/2 spot. Then whatever happens, happens. You win a round, and it's a win. They need the skill boost in the top 6 and have a couple decent trade options. I think getting the cap space to make bringing in more depth easier should be the priority unless you target that in the trade. But in that case, I wouldn't be looking for a 2C, #2, and a 1st. I'd be looking for a goalie, a top 6 wing, and maybe a bottom 6 player and hope that it comes in at the $11mil in space Marner is currently taking.

I think you're kidding yourself if you don't think there's going to be a long, long, long lineup of teams that would absolutely love to have Mitch Marner. The only reason the list of teams is going to be limited when it comes to negotiations, much like Tkachuk's was, is because he's going to be selective on where he wants to go.

Obviously, finding a team that can give the Leafs the exact needs of a #2C, #2/3 RHD, and a 1st isn't a perfect science. A team like Vegas may be willign and able to do Theodore+, but Chandler Stephenson is a UFA, so they don't really have a centre to give.... hence why the more likely outcome is a "good #2C or a good #2 RHD, and a couple of futures.

It would be incredibly stupid of the Leafs to waste Marner's value on a goalie. The teams with the younger good ones under contract are highly unlikely to move them; and the older ones like Saros or Markstrom just don't have that kind of value.

 

[SEALBound]

Manage expectations... Everyone keeps talking as if no team wants him on a thread that's reporting apparently at least 4 teams are interested... You really can't make this shit up

Pagnotta saying "keep your eyes on these four teams" =/= "4 teams are interested so we shouldn't keep our expectations in check"

 

[seanlinden]

He needs to want re-sign a long extension there for Leafs to be able to get a good return. Most players with the power he has will only leave for a few teams. Some players won’t move for ANY team (e.g. Jeff Skinner).

He doesn’t need to approve a trade at all and can just stay in TOR if the perfect situation isn’t presented to him. There are players who do that all the time (again, Jeff Skinner, and Hall would only accept a trade to the bruins at one point).

To be fair, there is probably some incentive on Marner's end to get this thing wrapped up with an extension this summer. The Leafs have a new, and very different coaching philosophy coming in. While it could result in an increase to Marner's productivity and value (from a free agency perspective); it could also and I'd say be more likely to result in a decrease.

Marner's going to be looking at $92 to $100m on his next deal if signed this summer. It would seem silly to hold out and try to get $105.

 

[JKG33]

I think you're kidding yourself if you don't think there's going to be a long, long, long lineup of teams that would absolutely love to have Mitch Marner. The only reason the list of teams is going to be limited when it comes to negotiations, much like Tkachuk's was, is because he's going to be selective on where he wants to go.

Obviously, finding a team that can give the Leafs the exact needs of a #2C, #2/3 RHD, and a 1st isn't a perfect science. A team like Vegas may be willign and able to do Theodore+, but Chandler Stephenson is a UFA, so they don't really have a centre to give.... hence why the more likely outcome is a "good #2C or a good #2 RHD, and a couple of futures.

It would be incredibly stupid of the Leafs to waste Marner's value on a goalie. The teams with the younger good ones under contract are highly unlikely to move them; and the older ones like Saros or Markstrom just don't have that kind of value.

Teams aren't going to be lining up to disrupt their cap structure and pay what Leaf fans want in a trade to do it.

Middling teams may be interested sure, but you're greatly overstating the interest teams will have. He can't get it done on a team with 3 other superstars, good teams aren't going to look to make him a top paid player on their own team

 

[tmlfan98]

There’s a good chance Marner’s camp fed this info to Pagnotta. They have historically been willing to give info to anyone that will work with them. It’s more likely I’d think that they fed this info to him than he put together this list after talking to every GM. Every team on this list is a team that makes sense that Marner would waive for.

I agree, the only thing that surprised me was that Pagnotta got this info before Dreger, who has usually always been Ferris' biggest mouthpiece in hockey media.

FWIW Chicago and Nashville specifically are 2 destinations that have been floating around GTA hockey circles for a while. Marner likes the idea of playing with Bedard (duh), and both Marner and his wife like the idea of living in Nashville.

One potential destination that I was surprised wasn't in Pagnotta's report was Utah. Similar to Chicago and Nashville, Utah has been coming up a lot in GTA hockey circles. Not only that, anyone who is familiar with Rocket Security knows that this is about as close as we've come so far to Marner himself listing a destination he would be open to.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1789417517837918695

 

[SEALBound]

I think you're kidding yourself if you don't think there's going to be a long, long, long lineup of teams that would absolutely love to have Mitch Marner. The only reason the list of teams is going to be limited when it comes to negotiations, much like Tkachuk's was, is because he's going to be selective on where he wants to go.

Obviously, finding a team that can give the Leafs the exact needs of a #2C, #2/3 RHD, and a 1st isn't a perfect science. A team like Vegas may be willign and able to do Theodore+, but Chandler Stephenson is a UFA, so they don't really have a centre to give.... hence why the more likely outcome is a "good #2C or a good #2 RHD, and a couple of futures.

It would be incredibly stupid of the Leafs to waste Marner's value on a goalie. The teams with the younger good ones under contract are highly unlikely to move them; and the older ones like Saros or Markstrom just don't have that kind of value.

There's a long, long, long, long list of teams that would love to add Connor McDavid but it doesn't mean they are lining up at Ken Holland's front door willing to pay the price tag. You're underestimating the general thought of "Marner is a good player and we'd love to have him but it just doesn't make sense for us right now."

And I didn't say "just a goalie". I suggested that a starting goalie be a part of the package from a team that has one to give. If Nashville is interested and they have Saros, the TML would be nuts not to ask for him as part of the return. What else would you ask for? A late 1st that will do nothing to move the needle for the team during it's current window?

It seems like you are more interested in the "meme" of the return than considering what the actual return should be.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Manage expectations... Everyone keeps talking as if no team wants him on a thread that's reporting apparently at least 4 teams are interested... You really can't make this shit up

"Everyone" is a pretty big term. Leaf fans are part of "everyone", and apparently at least one person thinks Dallas would give up their 1C and 2D for 1 year of Marner. I think managing expectations is a legitimate statement to make in light of some of the asks from Leaf fans. Non-Leaf fans telling you that your player doesn't have the value your fanbase thinks isn't "everyone".

 

[ManofSteel55]

I think you're kidding yourself if you don't think there's going to be a long, long, long lineup of teams that would absolutely love to have Mitch Marner. The only reason the list of teams is going to be limited when it comes to negotiations, much like Tkachuk's was, is because he's going to be selective on where he wants to go.

Obviously, finding a team that can give the Leafs the exact needs of a #2C, #2/3 RHD, and a 1st isn't a perfect science. A team like Vegas may be willign and able to do Theodore+, but Chandler Stephenson is a UFA, so they don't really have a centre to give.... hence why the more likely outcome is a "good #2C or a good #2 RHD, and a couple of futures.

It would be incredibly stupid of the Leafs to waste Marner's value on a goalie. The teams with the younger good ones under contract are highly unlikely to move them; and the older ones like Saros or Markstrom just don't have that kind of value.

I don't think anyone is suggesting that teams won't be interested in Marner. There is interest, but that doesn't mean that the interested parties are going to be lining up all of their top assets to throw into a trade with Marner. NHL GM's make trades to make their team better. Bringing in a star player for one season, and giving up key roster players and top prospects to do so, isn't the same as just offering a guy his contract in free agency or something like that. There is "interest" and then there is "interest at what cost".

 

[seanlinden]

Teams aren't going to be lining up to disrupt their cap structure and pay what Leaf fans want in a trade to do it.

Middling teams may be interested sure, but you're greatly overstating the interest teams will have. He can't get it done on a team with 3 other superstars, good teams aren't going to look to make him a top paid player on their own team

They absolutely will be. It is extremely rare to have an opportuntiy to acquire a player of Marner's calibre, at his current age.

Most teams will figure that he's a "change of scenery" away from being a really good playoff producer, especially if he can come into an "established" situation where he doesn't necessarily have to be the guy people look to as a leader.

 

[JKG33]

They absolutely will be. It is extremely rare to have an opportuntiy to acquire a player of Marner's calibre, at his current age.

Most teams will figure that he's a "change of scenery" away from being a really good playoff producer, especially if he can come into an "established" situation where he doesn't necessarily have to be the guy people look to as a leader.

That would not be a very smart team. This isn't an Eichel where he's a complete unknown. Marner has 8 years of playoff futility behind him. He and his family/team are known whiners. No good team will want to pay the absurd prices (cap and assets) for that circus