Prospect Info: Owen Pickering, 21st Overall, 2022 NHL Draft
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CheckingLineCenter
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- Aug 10, 2018
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I think Pickering plays at 5:48 EST today. Red v White Game at selection camp.
It is hard for even professional scouts to predict the future of 18 year old kids and project what they will become. That is why literally almost half 1st round picks never become much of anything. Some don't even make it to the NHL and others never really stick and become fringe players. Then you have others that become 4th line players or 3rd pairing defenseman.Sure, agreed, but these actual scouts also pick guys like Pouliot over Forsberg, Kapanen over Pastrnak, Patrick over Makar, etc., etc.
Anyway, hope this kid's good. Gonna need the scouting/drafting/development aspects of the organization to be on point over the next decade.
I do remember that Forsberg draft. I was so pumped when we made the trade right before the pick. I literally said out loud we got Forsberg. Then when we made the pick I was like Who???
I had the same reaction. I yelled to myself "Yes!! We finally get Sid his elite winger!!" and was overjoyed. Then we drafted this asshole Poo-A-Lot and I was disappointed but hopeful, and then every time I watched him in the WHL and playing for Canada I said "I just don't see it with this guy".
F**king asshole, Shero.
I think there's pretty much a minus-100% chance he plays next season, or the season after. But if all goes well, he could be a 2 years in the WHL + 1 year in the AHL kind of guy.
Remember, aside from a lot of physical filling out to do, he missed basically a full season of playing. So these guys (from the 2021, 2022, and perhaps the 2023 drafts), almost have to be treated as if they need an extra year of development over most prospects in a typical draft.
Anyway, it will be nice for the first time in 100 years to have a guy who's a legit threat to make Team Canada's World Junior team -- if not the 2023 team, then hopefully the 2024 team.
Not sure I can even remember what that feels like. I guess Letang in 2006 & 2007.
Not sure I can even remember what that feels like. I guess Letang in 2006 & 2007.
JTG
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While I agree with what you're saying completely, sometimes guys surprise in camp and force their way on to rosters. I could absolutely see him putting in work and being one of the 6 best guys at camp next year, and again, it's strictly based on how he skates. We didn't expect Maatta to do what he did when he did it. If Pickering has the brain that he is said to have and the wheels that I've witnessed...anything can happen.I had the same reaction. I yelled to myself "Yes!! We finally get Sid his elite winger!!" and was overjoyed. Then we drafted this asshole Poo-A-Lot and I was disappointed but hopeful, and then every time I watched him in the WHL and playing for Canada I said "I just don't see it with this guy".
F**king asshole, Shero.
I think there's pretty much a minus-100% chance he plays next season, or the season after. But if all goes well, he could be a 2 years in the WHL + 1 year in the AHL kind of guy.
Remember, aside from a lot of physical filling out to do, he missed basically a full season of playing. So these guys (from the 2021, 2022, and perhaps the 2023 drafts), almost have to be treated as if they need an extra year of development over most prospects in a typical draft.
HandshakeLine
A real jerk thing
Yeah, long odds are against him, but we have had two defensemen pretty much come in straight out of camp and compete for fulltime positions- Letang came in and got his 10 game tryout, then was sent back to Juniors. The next year he was basically ready for full time work after showing that he was fine in the AHL for like 10 games. Then there's Maatta. And maybe we can even count Marino there, though he was a bit older.
Le Magnifique 66
Let's Go Pens
Could be wrong, but didn't Despres make Team Canada? Harrington being I think the latest.
Yeah, Despres played WJC.
Also just re early breakout from Pickering... too many profiles are telling me he has to clean up his reads, his execution on passes, and so on for me to believe in the potential of him being ready very quickly. He's a project for reasons other than his rake thin body.
I don't think there are any holes, I think he just needs TIME. He missed almost a full season last year, in addition to needing to grow into his body because of his growth spurt.
He needs the next 2 years in the WHL. After that, if he's able to transition directly into the NHL or only need to spend 1 season in the AHL, I would consider that a pretty fast-track development given he missed most of last year. I think 3 years should be a realistic expectation and the likely minimum timeline. That's pretty damn fast for most Dmen, even those who don't miss development time like he did.
Jesse
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I like @Jesse for current in season Penguins analysis. I think he hits the nail on the head without being hyperbolic and is typically spot on. His articles age very well if you go look at them. Nobody knows the actual on ice team and play of the Penguins better.
Prospect wise, in the most respectful way, I tend to take him with a grain of salt compared to the guys that monitor these kids for seasons at a time. Agree with the “Pronman is a journalist first, scout second “take but he does gets into rinks and sees these guys live and that matters imo. Hockeyprospect.com = gold standard for public information in my opinion.
Jesse’s prospect work reads more like a fan of the draft/development process with a platform and writing ability. Highlight based, hasn’t tracked these guys for multiple years, etc. Which I have no problem with at all, but I don’t put a ton of actual stock in. It’s well written but I see it more as bonus fluff that’s fun to read.
(Tagging him so he knows we’re talkin bout him
I really appreciate the compliment in your first paragraph. I try really hard to not be hyperbolic. I think I also take some shit sometimes because I am too patient. (Dan Bylsma, anyone? Real late to the party there.) I really just try to make it my goal to try to teach someone something out of every article I write. I don't know it all, but I think there's still a huge gap in systems and playstyle discussions that get lost among the rumor and nonsense fodder and people honestly want to learn more about how the game is being played and what stats can help them understand it better. I'll ride off into the sunset doing that. I don't ever want to be a journalist.
No offense taken to your other point. Corey and Scott do this for a living. They have the most vital resource of all at their disposals: time and travel. Not much you can't accomplish when you have those in your pocket. Those are two of those most talented guys in the world when it comes to scouting and I trust their own eyes infinitely more than I trust my own. I have nowhere near the level of operation that they have with regard to their setup and approach to this.
Only disagreement I'll provide is on the video side. I try to make it my goal to post 0 prospect montages that contain nothing but highlight reels you can find on the CHL website. I try to post real video. Like the Calle Clang videos were all the work of arduously doing it the old fashioned way. I don't use InStat for anything. I'm not sure if that makes me honest or stupid. Could be both.
It sure will be. Plus some of you guys are getting me excited about him and his skating. If Pickering truly is as top level skater as some are saying on this thread then it is hard not to get excited for someone who is 6'4" and can skate as well as some are saying.
Love if Pickering could be the next Dumoulin type defenseman that can play on the top pairing with an offensive defenseman. Of course I want prime Dumoulin defense but a little more offense. Something like mid 30's points each year while playing top pairing shut down defense would be perfect. Don't get me wrong about prime Dumoulin's worth was a big part of those back to back Cups. You need that rock on that top pairing that can handle playing against the best lines of the other team. If Pickering can do that plus an extra 10 points a year than Dumoulin did that would be perfect.
I always have good feelings about the kids that grow late and put on several inches in a short time. Guentzel was the first one I remember and I was very excited when we drafted him because I knew if he did reach a decent height he was going to be a stud which he is. He didn't get as tall as his father but enough to be able to use his elite skills that helped him excell as a very small player during his developmental years. When he got near normal size he still had those skills but now on closer to equal size footing he could transition to the tougher league seamlessly to the better, bigger, stronger, NHL players because he was always used to going against a big difference in his competition.
I was excited for O''Connor signing for the same reason. Growing like 7" in a few years. Being able to compete as a little guy then getting size and becoming actually one of the bigger players is a nice advantage. It hasn't worked out yet like I thought it would when he came into camp that first year and one a spot after a great training camp but I still have hope he can develop into a nice middle 6 forward.
Pickering grew 7" like O''Connor in just 2 years and went from an undersized defenseman reallying on skating, skill, and proper positioning to compensate for his lack of size going against much bigger opponents. Now he has the size and as he fills out that frame all those attributes that let him succeed as a Smurf are going to be a big asset when he is a 6'5" 205 big man in the NHL. I like when they find these late growers!
OtherThingsILike
Registered User
Calen Addison played for Canada in the WJC a few months before we traded him to Minnesota.
I think what you're describing there is the downside case scenario for Pickering. HockeyProspect had him listed in the top 10 in their March rankings and the only reason he dropped is because they didn't see more offense come from him towards the end of the season. They said multiple times that they were hoping for a Mortiz Seider-type development curve where the offense started to come out by the end of the season, and because it didn't that's why he dropped.
I'm certainly not saying he's Seider, but unlike the latter, Pickering missed almost a full season last year so it would make sense if that development curve may indeed come, but only come next season. Also, he played on a weak team and I suspect they'll either be a stronger team next season or he'll get traded to one of the top contenders.
But I believe in the downside case HockeyProspect sees his floor as a Brian Dumoulin type at worst. They refer to him as a "top 4 insulator" as a complement, because he's capable of being that steady presence who can play with a riskier offensive type partner. I think the Jay Bouwmeester comparison may also be fair as a step up from that if he can add a bit more offense from Dumoulin. And then there's Craig Button who likened him to Jaccob Slavin who's probably the best defensive Dman in the NHL while also contributing more offense than Dumo.
So if his range is kind of Dumo as a downside case, and then Bouwmeester or Slavin as an upside case, that's a pretty exciting range for him to be in.
My personal gut feeling is he's a better prospect than any of the first round picks we've had in the last 15 years (which I know isn't saying much given how many we've traded). Better than Despres, Bennett, Maatta, Kapanen or Poulin.
I agree that he probably is the best 1st round prospect in years that we have had. I did say a better offensive Dumoulin on my post with mid 30's points. If he develops into that I will be very happy. If he becomes a 40+ point defenseman yearly with great defense in his own end then that would be icing on the cake. I am high on him but I don't want to get too excited for him in case he is trade bait for a stud forward at the deadline like a Miller/Huberdeau level type player that will cost a ton. Even as a rental we are talking 1st round pick, Pickering, and something. Although Hextall could go for the level below that and add a Rakell level forward at the deadline for less assets.
As excited as I am about Pickering, I'd trade him + Poulin + 1st or whatever if we could get any one of Miller or Tarasenko or Patrick Kane and extend them. It's all about the next 3 years, and then we burn it all down.
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CheckingLineCenter
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I watched the scrimmage. Didn’t want to overthink one single viewing but was good to see Pickering within the context of a full game and not cut up clips or highlights. Especially with something on the line against some of the best Canadian players his own age.
My main impression— He’s interesting imo, one of those guys that is already good as-is but completely raw at the same time.
His skating is already very good and looked better than I expected. But I feel like he could still become a significantly better skater (if that makes sense).
Honestly, apply the above to every aspect of hockey and that’s how he looked. It’ll be really interesting to see how he develops.
As far as him on the ‘23 WJC team: Del Maestro and Korchinski are better players than Pickering currently and I’d say they have an edge but it’s not an impossible chasm. Those were only LD clearly ahead of him.
For returnees- I think only Zellweger would be a lock on the left side? Might have that wrong.
Either way, I think he could he in the mix.
My main impression— He’s interesting imo, one of those guys that is already good as-is but completely raw at the same time.
His skating is already very good and looked better than I expected. But I feel like he could still become a significantly better skater (if that makes sense).
Honestly, apply the above to every aspect of hockey and that’s how he looked. It’ll be really interesting to see how he develops.
As far as him on the ‘23 WJC team: Del Maestro and Korchinski are better players than Pickering currently and I’d say they have an edge but it’s not an impossible chasm. Those were only LD clearly ahead of him.
For returnees- I think only Zellweger would be a lock on the left side? Might have that wrong.
Either way, I think he could he in the mix.
Power Surge
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Jacob
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