Ovechkin vs Laine comparison.

[jepjepjoo]

I'm just going to quote myself from previous threads:

Comparing rookie seasons:

Age on the first game day
Crosby 18yo 59d
Laine 18yo 177d
Ovechkin 20yo 18d

PP opportunities
WSH 05-06 495
PIT 05-06 490
WPG 16-17 264

PP TOI
Ovechkin 544:33
Crosby 459:15
Laine 199:18

PP production
Crosby 81GP 16G 31A 47PTS
Ovechkin 81GP 21G 31A 52PTS
Laine 73GP 9G 5A 14PTS

PP TOI needed for a goal
Laine 22:09
Ovechkin 25:56
Crosby 28:42

PP TOI needed for a point
Crosby 9:46
Ovechkin 10:28
Laine 14:16

EV TOI
Ovechkin 1,140:57
Crosby 1,119:25
Laine 1,106:54

EV production
Crosby 81GP 23G 30A 53PTS
Ovechkin 81GP 28G 23A 51PTS
Laine 73GP 27G 23A 50PTS

EV TOI needed for a goal
Ovechkin 40:45
Laine 40:59
Crosby 48:40

EV TOI needed for a point
Crosby 21:07
Laine 22:08
Ovechkin 22:22

Seems like the only difference in production is PP time.

 

[North Cole]

I'm just going to quote myself from previous threads:

Comparing rookie seasons:

Age on the first game day
Crosby 18yo 59d
Laine 18yo 177d
Ovechkin 20yo 18d

PP opportunities
WSH 05-06 495
PIT 05-06 490
WPG 16-17 264

PP TOI
Ovechkin 544:33
Crosby 459:15
Laine 199:18

PP production
Crosby 81GP 16G 31A 47PTS
Ovechkin 81GP 21G 31A 52PTS
Laine 73GP 9G 5A 14PTS

PP TOI needed for a goal
Laine 22:09
Ovechkin 25:56
Crosby 28:42

PP TOI needed for a point
Crosby 9:46
Ovechkin 10:28
Laine 14:16

EV TOI
Ovechkin 1,140:57
Crosby 1,119:25
Laine 1,106:54

EV production
Crosby 81GP 23G 30A 53PTS
Ovechkin 81GP 28G 23A 51PTS
Laine 73GP 27G 23A 50PTS

EV TOI needed for a goal
Ovechkin 40:45
Laine 40:59
Crosby 48:40

EV TOI needed for a point
Crosby 21:07
Laine 22:08
Ovechkin 22:22

Seems like the only difference in production is PP time.

Neat. So switch the TOI: (ROUNDING TOI to the minute)
Laine with 544mins of PP time = 544min / 14mins per point = 38.86 points or 39 points on the PP.

Now we reduce his EV time by the amount his pp time has been increased. Unless you believe the coach is magically giving him extra minutes per game for no apparent reason. 544min - 199min = 345min. So his new EV time is 761min. 761/22 = 34.59 points OR 35 points.

Therefore, his total number of points is = 35EV + 39PP = 74 points.

Give Ovechkin Laine's PP time instead (add the 345 minutes of reduced PP time to EV time) = 68EV + 20PP = 88 total points. So Ovechkin suffers a small loss in points and Laine sees a small gain in points. This makes sense since Ovechkin was far far better on the PP when he was younger.

The actual difference in PP time is caused more by increased PP opportunities then it is by Ovechkin being given more PP time by his coach. As a result you should decrease Laine's EV time by the subsequent increase in PP time since there is only so many minutes in the hockey game. I'm not inclined to believe Maurice would give Laine the same EV ice time while doubling his PP time. That is a fallacy.

If you decided to just give Laine Ovechkin's PP time without reducing his EV time*, Ovechkin would still have more total points because he produces much better on the PP. So I'm actually punishing Ovechkin by taking away his PP time in favour of adding EV time, just to agree with your fantastical post. There is no combination of TOI that allow Laine to come out on top, unless you made Ovechkin's PP time extremely low. The difference is just that OV is way better on the PP....The aggregate time is irrelevant

*Laine - 39PP + 50 = 89 points
Ovechkin - 51EV + 52PP = 103 points

 

[bionic]

Laine fell into a much better situation then Ovechkin. Laine played easier min with better linemates and Ovechkins assist numbers are still better.

 

[HTFN]

YEAH WELL LAINE COULD SHOOT IT IN FROM HIS OWN ZONE

The difference is I'm not exaggerating at all, it just seems like I am because this comparison is so outlandish to begin with.

 

[Absolut]

Laine is better than Sergei Ovechkin at the moment. But obviously Sergei has a much higher potential.

 

[Zamuz]

I just don't understand this postion on the RSL numbers.

You really think Ovechkin flipped some switch in the summer of 2005 that transformed him from a depth player in the Russian league into an NHL superstar overnight?

Well what happened to Stamkos between seasons 08-09 - 09-10? 23 goals 46 points to 51 goals 95 points? He developed like Ovechkin did. Do you really think a player who scores 13 goals in russian league is equal to player who scores 44 goals in NHL?

 

[Zamuz]

Yes.

Laine couldn't get his feet moving at Ovechkin's level if his life depended on it, and you're not using statistics right, like, at all. To borrow a point from another poster, go look at Pavel Datsyuk's stats for the same year, same team. Datsyuk didn't just magically get worse as a player anymore than you think Ovechkin magically got better, so why's he so significantly under a PPG pace? Or maybe the RSL may not have been the best league in the world, but Dynamo Moscow is aces at player development. After all, look what Datsyuk and Ovechkin could do after being coached there.

It's pretty obvious that Laine won't come close unless the Jets are willing to loan him to the KHL or wait for the next lockout.

Wow you just don't understand what's the word development? You think that once you see one player as an 18-19 year old skating not so good, he will stay like that forever? Datsyuk isn't a good comparison, he was less than PPG the season before that and was the same in RSL. You are basically saying Ovechkin's 13 goals in RSL is equal or better than Laine's 44 goals in the NHL at the same age.

 

[Tage2Tuch]

I’m going to assume anyone in here that compares the two didn’t watch Ovechkin play the game in his first few seasons.

Not just from a scoring standpoint, I’m every aspect of his game. As well as it being polar opposite situation being on a top line against top defenders with Chris Clark and Jeff halpern as linemates, compared to being in a powerhouse top so on one of the highest scoring, best teams in the league.

How has this thread even made it this far?

That’s all.

 

[cupface52]

Well what happened to Stamkos between seasons 08-09 - 09-10? 23 goals 46 points to 51 goals 95 points? He developed like Ovechkin did. Do you really think a player who scores 13 goals in russian league is equal to player who scores 44 goals in NHL?

His rookie year Stamkos spent adjusting to the nhl.

Vinny Lecavalier went from 33g/78p in 02-03, 32g/66p in 03-04 to 7g/15p in 04-05 playing in the same league as 19 year old Ovechkin. Ovechkin was already better than Lecavalier, Lecavalier was better in those years than Laine was in his first two years, therefore 19 year old Ovechkin > 19 year old Laine.

 

[Plural]

This thread has come to it's end a while back. There seems to be majority of posters who think Laine is not on pace to become as good of a player as Ovechkin was and then there's a smaller bunch of posters who consider it a real, likely even, possibility.

I personally think the "Laine's third year is good comparable to OV's rookie year" is intentionally biased approach but it's not like it's the most outlandish opinion I've seen on this forum. As it stands, there's nothing left to say for either "camp" to really change their position. So we'll have to wait until next season to see how things unfold.

It's not uncommon for elite players to have massive development leaps during their first years. I wouldn't be shocked to see Laine taking one of those massive development steps in the next few seasons. I wouldn't be surprised to see his development starting to stagnate either. He's going to get better, but we don't know by how much. To reach Ovechkin's rookie season level he'd need to considerably up his game and become top-3 point producer in the league (even that might be bit underselling it, since Ovechkin was top-3 point scorer AND played in abysmal team with practically no support). Possible? I guess. I don't think it's likely but it can happen.

To reach Ovechkin's peak, he'd need to take a jump to McDavid-esque level and that's just something I don't see in Laine. I guess there's a one in a million chance that happens, but I seriously doubt it.

As for now, two sides of the debate can do little more than agree to disagree.

 

[jepjepjoo]

Neat. So switch the TOI: (ROUNDING TOI to the minute)
Laine with 544mins of PP time = 544min / 14mins per point = 38.86 points or 39 points on the PP.

Now we reduce his EV time by the amount his pp time has been increased. Unless you believe the coach is magically giving him extra minutes per game for no apparent reason. 544min - 199min = 345min. So his new EV time is 761min. 761/22 = 34.59 points OR 35 points.

Therefore, his total number of points is = 35EV + 39PP = 74 points.

Give Ovechkin Laine's PP time instead (add the 345 minutes of reduced PP time to EV time) = 68EV + 20PP = 88 total points. So Ovechkin suffers a small loss in points and Laine sees a small gain in points. This makes sense since Ovechkin was far far better on the PP when he was younger.

The actual difference in PP time is caused more by increased PP opportunities then it is by Ovechkin being given more PP time by his coach. As a result you should decrease Laine's EV time by the subsequent increase in PP time since there is only so many minutes in the hockey game. I'm not inclined to believe Maurice would give Laine the same EV ice time while doubling his PP time. That is a fallacy.

If you decided to just give Laine Ovechkin's PP time without reducing his EV time*, Ovechkin would still have more total points because he produces much better on the PP. So I'm actually punishing Ovechkin by taking away his PP time in favour of adding EV time, just to agree with your fantastical post. There is no combination of TOI that allow Laine to come out on top, unless you made Ovechkin's PP time extremely low. The difference is just that OV is way better on the PP....The aggregate time is irrelevant

*Laine - 39PP + 50 = 89 points
Ovechkin - 51EV + 52PP = 103 points

The point of the post is to put the 05-06 season into context and show that Laine scored at the same pace as Ovechkin and Crosby on ES... Your screnarios don't take into account that Laine only played 73 games. Also had you shown goals instead of just points it would make Laine look alot better: scenario 1 would be Laine 44 goals vs Ovechkin 44 goals and screnario 2 Laine would have 61 goals.

 

[Howboutthempanthers]

Well what happened to Stamkos between seasons 08-09 - 09-10? 23 goals 46 points to 51 goals 95 points? He developed like Ovechkin did. Do you really think a player who scores 13 goals in russian league is equal to player who scores 44 goals in NHL?

What happened was Barry Melrose stopped being his coach. That's the main reason, plus a ton of other stuff. It's too much stuff involved to compare development between players so easily.

 

[bsu]

ovi created offense, laine needs most spoon fed to him.

 

[Zamuz]

What happened was Barry Melrose stopped being his coach. That's the main reason, plus a ton of other stuff. It's too much stuff involved to compare development between players so easily.

So coach is the reason he doubled his goal and point totals? development has nothing to do with him, he is the same 40 point player but with a better coach. Give him the same coach and he is a 40 point guy you say?

 

[19GoalsInPlayoffs]

To reach Ovechkin's rookie season level he'd need to considerably up his game and become top-3 point producer in the league (even that might be bit underselling it, since Ovechkin was top-3 point scorer AND played in abysmal team with practically no support)..

I’ve always wondered what this has to do with anything.

Hockey is a team sport. This is not basketball. You have to change lines regularly. For a team there can be only five players on the ice at the same time. You’ll play the ”best” against the best. Or have an another kind of strategy...

Individually if you are a very good player in a very bad team, you’ll get all the opportunities to shine. And the opposing team can only try do it’s best to try to stop your line. Of course they can focus on your line, but so are they going to do against every 1st line.

Your team is probably going to suck as the opponent knows they can dominate when your line is not on the ice. But individually you are going to get on the ice on every opportunity your coach thinks your team has a chance. And it means you’ll be getting at least the same opportunity to score as the _normal_ 1st liners in other teams.

Of course if practically everyone else in your team totally sucks and there isn’t even one decent player to put in your line beside you, meaning even you - the best player on the team - are being obliterated, you won’t even get the _individual_ points. But I doubt there is or was any team like that in the NHL. Ever.

And in a stacked team. Even as you’d be _very good_, you won’t be getting on ice on every opportunity you’d like to. As there are also other _very good_ options for your coach to choose on. Of course the team will have better success and the pressure on you (and your line) is smaller... but the great players often love the extra pressure.

 

[Mulletman]

So coach is the reason he doubled his goal and point totals? development has nothing to do with him, he is the same 40 point player but with a better coach. Give him the same coach and he is a 40 point guy you say?

Well on the other hand I don't think there's anybody in this thread that would disagree that Laine would score more with a better coach as well. Paul Maurice is an absolute joke of a coach and we all know it...

 

[Zuluss]

I agree that the international tournaments pre-NHL are the best way to gauge the players level at that time.

Laine at barely 18 broke the European record for WHC points held by Jagr. Didn't just break it, he doubled it.

All of Laines junior years stats and accomplishments are well ahead of OV.

WJC U18
Ovechkin 23g+8a in 14gp
Laine 8g+3a in 7gp
Ovechkin way ahead in terms of both totals and gpg/ppg

WJC U20
Ovechkin 18g+7a in 18gp
Laine 7g+6a in 7gp
Ovechkin has an edge in goal/assist totals, same gpg, lower ppg.
Awards: Ovechkin - All-Star team and Best forward, Laine - All-star team
I would take Ovechkin's resume at WJC U20 since it is longer and has more accomplishments

WHC
Ovechkin 5g+3a in 8gp
Laine 7g+5a in 10gp

Laine seems to have an edge here, but the level of competition matters: 2005, when Ovechkin played, was the lockout year, and Ovechkin scored 3 points in the bronze medal game against Sweden with Sedins, Alfredsson, Zetterberg, Lundqvist. Laine in 2016 scored only 2 points in 3 knock-out round games against KHL-level teams of Denmark and Russia and a half-decent Canada squad. I mean, 8 of Laine's 12 points in WHC-2016 came against France, Germany and Belarus, and 5 of Ovechkin's 8 points in WHC-2005 came in the knockout round against Finland, Canada, and Sweden.

So, at the international stage before turning 20: Ovechkin was much better as an U18 player, Ovechkin seems to have an edge in terms of WJC career, if only because of its length, and it is not clear Laine was better than Ovechkin at the Worlds.

Which sort of explains why folks generally expected more out of Ovechkin at the start of 2005/06 then what they currently expect out of Laine's upcoming season.

Though if Laine proves everyone wrong and turns into a 100-point player this coming season, I will only be happy for him, one can never have enough 100-point players.

 

[19GoalsInPlayoffs]

WJC U18
Ovechkin 23g+8a in 14gp
Laine 8g+3a in 7gp
Ovechkin way ahead in terms of both totals and gpg/ppg

WJC U20
Ovechkin 18g+7a in 18gp
Laine 7g+6a in 7gp
Ovechkin has an edge in goal/assist totals, same gpg, lower ppg.
Awards: Ovechkin - All-Star team and Best forward, Laine - All-star team
I would take Ovechkin's resume at WJC U20 since it is longer and has more accomplishments

You know the problem here is that Laine only had an one ”opportunity” to play in both WJC:s and was at both times seriously underaged. He started at NHL when he was 18 you know...

So of course Ovys resume is longer. As he could and was willing to attend to WJCs as he was not playing in NHL when he was under 20 years old.

I would say they both were seriously good at that level.

 

[Psych0dad]

WJC U18
Ovechkin 23g+8a in 14gp
Laine 8g+3a in 7gp
Ovechkin way ahead in terms of both totals and gpg/ppg

WJC U20
Ovechkin 18g+7a in 18gp
Laine 7g+6a in 7gp
Ovechkin has an edge in goal/assist totals, same gpg, lower ppg.
Awards: Ovechkin - All-Star team and Best forward, Laine - All-star team
I would take Ovechkin's resume at WJC U20 since it is longer and has more accomplishments

WHC
Ovechkin 5g+3a in 8gp
Laine 7g+5a in 10gp

Laine seems to have an edge here, but the level of competition matters: 2005, when Ovechkin played, was the lockout year, and Ovechkin scored 3 points in the bronze medal game against Sweden with Sedins, Alfredsson, Zetterberg, Lundqvist. Laine in 2016 scored only 2 points in 3 knock-out round games against KHL-level teams of Denmark and Russia and a half-decent Canada squad. I mean, 8 of Laine's 12 points in WHC-2016 came against France, Germany and Belarus, and 5 of Ovechkin's 8 points in WHC-2005 came in the knockout round against Finland, Canada, and Sweden.

So, at the international stage before turning 20: Ovechkin was much better as an U18 player, Ovechkin seems to have an edge in terms of WJC career, if only because of its length, and it is not clear Laine was better than Ovechkin at the Worlds.

Which sort of explains why folks generally expected more out of Ovechkin at the start of 2005/06 then what they currently expect out of Laine's upcoming season.

Though if Laine proves everyone wrong and turns into a 100-point player this coming season, I will only be happy for him, one can never have enough 100-point players.

I don't know what you are talking about. There are some immediate factual errors that popped up to me when reading your post.

A) How would Ovechkin have 8 pts in WHC as an 18 year old rookie? Jagr had the record at 6, Laine doubled it. Scored more goals than Jagr had pts.

B) How were there 14 games in WJC for Ovechkin? How is that possible in a tournament where you play maximum of 10 games IF you make the finals?

Que?

Are you sure you are evaluating players honestly?

 

[Plural]

I don't know what you are talking about. There are some immediate factual errors that popped up to me when reading your post.

A) How would Ovechkin have 8 pts in WHC as an 18 year old rookie? Jagr had the record at 6, Laine doubled it. Scored more goals than Jagr had pts.

B) How were there 14 games in WJC for Ovechkin? How is that possible in a tournament where you play maximum of 10 games IF you make the finals?

Que?

Are you sure you are evaluating players honestly?

Again, you'r knowledge on hockey is so deep..

 

[Psych0dad]

Again, you'r knowledge on hockey is so deep..

How does that answer the questions? Ad hominem doesn't advance discussion. Are you capable of answering the questions?

 

[Plural]

How does that answer the questions? Ad hominem doesn't advance discussion. Are you capable of answering the questions?

I was giving you a compliment. Your reign as the hockey authority and expert on this site truly is something to marvel at.

And yes, I could give you answers but I don't dare to correct the mighty psychodad.

 

[kelsier]

I don't know what you are talking about. There are some immediate factual errors that popped up to me when reading your post.

A) How would Ovechkin have 8 pts in WHC as an 18 year old rookie? Jagr had the record at 6, Laine doubled it. Scored more goals than Jagr had pts.

B) How were there 14 games in WJC for Ovechkin? How is that possible in a tournament where you play maximum of 10 games IF you make the finals?

Que?

Are you sure you are evaluating players honestly?

Ovechkin is late born and if I remember correctly there is some rule of eligibility in terms of that particular record. For instance another late born, Matthews, who was also 18 at the time and played at the same WHCs as Laine, he would not have been able to compete for the record. My best guess in regards to A.

 

[Alf the dwarf]

I just don't understand this postion on the RSL numbers.

You really think Ovechkin flipped some switch in the summer of 2005 that transformed him from a depth player in the Russian league into an NHL superstar overnight?

You obviously haven't played hockey or know anything about players development as a teen, they take huge leaps. Some bigger, like ovechkin did.

 

[TheDoldrums]

When 19 years old, Laine scored 44 goals and finished 2nd in goal scoring in the best league in the world.

When 19 years old, Ovechkin scored 13 goals and finished 41st in goal scoring, not even in the best league in the world.

The thing is, Ovechkin developed from that player and you think Laine won't? wait until Laine gets his feet moving and learns the game even more, he will be an absolute force.

When 19 years old Ovechkin had a better PPG than prime Pavel Datsyuk on the same team. He only played 37 games, so yeah his totals weren't spectacular. Some players played nearly 60 games, doesn't really seem like a fair comparison.

Datsyuk put up 32 points in 47 games on the same team at 25 years old. Here's his PPG in the years around that.

03-04: 0.91 PPG in the NHL
04-05: 0.68 PPG in Russia
05-06: 1.16 PPG in the NHL

Are we supposed to believe he was a great NHL player, got really bad for some reason at 25, then turned into a superstar at 26? Seems like the far more likely scenario is that it actually was tougher to score on that team than in the NHL for some players, for whatever reasons.

You guys act like Ovechkin was some mediocre player at 19 and an absolutely superstar at 20. That would require a "Teen Wolf-esque" transformation that just doesn't happen.