Ovechkin top 10 player of all time?

[andrjusha]

The whole secondary assist thing has been soundly debunked but let's not stop the narrative about goals shall we.

Please do post Crosby best secondary assists compilation video for our viewing pleasure.
We've seen every career goal, top 10 goals, best goal celebration compilations, etc.
Maybe we will appreciate them more if secondary assists enthusiasts create those for us!

 

[Regal]

You can have a goal without an assist. But there is no assist without a goal. The assist is inherently dependent on a real instance, the tallying of a goal.

Anyways. It doesn't really matter what anyone thinks right now. We all know that Ovechkin's story is far from over. If he remains as consistent as he has been the past few years, and we truly get a race to catch Gretzky, the entire equation changes yet again.

That's extremely simplistic. Firstly, it's rare that goals happen without assists. By my count, Ovechkin has 35 unassisted goals in his career, and only 12 of those have come in the last 8 seasons since he's become much more of a shooter than play driver. Secondly, no goal happens in a vacuum, whether an official assist happens of not. Even if a player steals the puck from a defenseman and scores in the zone, he wouldn't have had that opportunity if the team wasn't in the zone in the first place, if the other players weren't in their positions, etc.

Players who routinely transition the puck, recover loose pucks, forecheck for possession, steal pucks, screen the goalie, etc, etc, are doing things that lead to more possession time for their team that give more opportunities for their team to score. Those who overvalued goals seem to focus solely on the end result rather than the process. Yes, in general, when a goal happens, the goalscorer is typically more important that the primary passer who is typically more important than the secondary passer. But an elite playmaker is creating a multitude of chances that don't get finished in order to get that goal. Each play might not be as important as the goalscorer but by creating more of them, the end result is the same. The puck still ends up in the back of the net.

For someone like Ovechkin in the back-half of his career, he's frequently playing off the puck and waiting for the shot. This means he's a lot more reliant on his teammates to not only get him the puck, but to do all those little things required to gain and maintain possession. He was tracked this year as being on an island by himself in terms of a lack of plays that result in a change in possession. That's fine because his ability to score is so valuable, but it also means his goal totals need to be put in context and some people don't seem to be able to do this.

When we look at players with the sample size of Ovechkin and Crosby, we can see their effect on goal totals over their careers, and this includes the ability to shoot and pass and general production, but also all those little things that create possession and goals. Despite the Caps and Pens being similar quality teams since 07-08 when these stats were first introduced, we can see that Crosby has a greater effect on increasing the goals for of the Pens (+0.69 GF/60) than Ovechkin does for the Caps (+0.39 GF/60).

 

[Fixxer]

I would say so because of his first 5 seasons, plus his goal totals season to season afterward. From 2005-2009, he was the most spectacular player I saw in the last 25 years. Got to say that he might barely make the top 10, but he sure has a shot at the top 10 list.

 

[tenken00]

That's extremely simplistic. Firstly, it's rare that goals happen without assists. By my count, Ovechkin has 35 unassisted goals in his career, and only 12 of those have come in the last 8 seasons since he's become much more of a shooter than play driver. Secondly, no goal happens in a vacuum, whether an official assist happens of not. Even if a player steals the puck from a defenseman and scores in the zone, he wouldn't have had that opportunity if the team wasn't in the zone in the first place, if the other players weren't in their positions, etc.

Players who routinely transition the puck, recover loose pucks, forecheck for possession, steal pucks, screen the goalie, etc, etc, are doing things that lead to more possession time for their team that give more opportunities for their team to score. Those who overvalued goals seem to focus solely on the end result rather than the process. Yes, in general, when a goal happens, the goalscorer is typically more important that the primary passer who is typically more important than the secondary passer. But an elite playmaker is creating a multitude of chances that don't get finished in order to get that goal. Each play might not be as important as the goalscorer but by creating more of them, the end result is the same. The puck still ends up in the back of the net.

For someone like Ovechkin in the back-half of his career, he's frequently playing off the puck and waiting for the shot. This means he's a lot more reliant on his teammates to not only get him the puck, but to do all those little things required to gain and maintain possession. He was tracked this year as being on an island by himself in terms of a lack of plays that result in a change in possession. That's fine because his ability to score is so valuable, but it also means his goal totals need to be put in context and some people don't seem to be able to do this.

When we look at players with the sample size of Ovechkin and Crosby, we can see their effect on goal totals over their careers, and this includes the ability to shoot and pass and general production, but also all those little things that create possession and goals. Despite the Caps and Pens being similar quality teams since 07-08 when these stats were first introduced, we can see that Crosby has a greater effect on increasing the goals for of the Pens (+0.69 GF/60) than Ovechkin does for the Caps (+0.39 GF/60).

I didn't grow up knowing hockey. I came to love the game and all its quirks as is. The hockey assist is not the equivalent of something like a soccer assist.

I've seen way too many times someone push the puck up and the puck bounce randomly off the boards or off the opposing team to another player who is luckily in the right place at the right time and score - benefitting the initial player with a primary assist even though it was wholly unintentional.

I've learned to just take it as it is. A quirk in the sport. Thats why the vast majority of goals have assists attached to them, not to mention secondary assists. So no. Often times assists don't mean what you think it does. You are thinking of soccer.

 

[Zuluss]

That was essentially what happened except Ovechkin reinvented his game to remain an elite goalscorer

The fact that Ovechkin "reinvented his game" resulted in him being the best forward in the league at 28 and then receiving 14% and 12% of Hart vote at the ages of 29 and 33.
This is very far from "crash and burn" and this is not the career arc people imagined when in 2010 they talked about Ovechkin's play not aging well. Those who said so envisioned 33-year-old OV as a 30-goal man who could score more, but constantly battles injuries.
Crosby, on the other hand, fell way short of expectations many had for him in 2010. A Hart and an Art Ross is all he got in 10 seasons that followed. Anyone who would have predicted that would be called a hater back then.
As for Crosby aging gracefully - we probably have to wait and see, but so far in his post-30 career he had one meh season, one great season and one injury-marred season.

 

[Regal]

Sure there are factors that lead up to the goal which aren't on the box score and will be blind to the average fan, but you can be a dominant defensive, puck-possessive team who can have a hard time finishing; that's where goals > assists and offense = production. I have seen numerous teams (offensively talented teams) flame out due to their inability to finish a play. That is invaluable in hockey. You can be a great playmaker, do all the right things, get people into prime positions, and still not be able to score. You ability is there no question, but in the end what matters? What shows up in the scoresheet? Whether you were able to score more goals than your opponent.

So yes, finishing is invaluable in today's league and is why offense is always more important than defense, even though it's "half the game".

You want a recent example? The 2020 Leafs, with all that offense, couldn't buy a goal. Hell, the 2019 Bruins in game 7. 2019 Tampa Bay (whose 2020 version just ran through the league). The 2010 Capitals (ironically with the player we are discussing who is the best finisher in the game) during game 5-7.

Finishing is hugely important, I agree. We see lpts of teams who can dominate possession but fail to finish. I think it gets a bit overvalued at times when it comes to Ovechkin though, because his game has been so focused on his finishing ability the past 8 years that I don't think his effect on his team's scoring is as great as his totals suggest, and a bit more representative of how their offense is set-up. If he was doing more things to drive possession and carrying and passing the puck more and scored 10 fewer goals and 10 more assists, I don't think he'd be any less valuable a player.

 

[Volodya Krutov]

He might be the best winger in the game with Gordie Howe, probably the greatest goal scorer ever. But I'd easily pick 10 other guys over him as much more complete, efficient hockey players. Ovechkin is overrated and I'm as pro-Russia hockey as you can get.

 

[Regal]

The fact that Ovechkin "reinvented his game" resulted in him being the best forward in the league at 28 and then receiving 14% and 12% of Hart vote at the ages of 29 and 33.
This is very far from "crash and burn" and this is not the career arc people imagined when in 2010 they talked about Ovechkin's play not aging well. Those who said so envisioned 33-year-old OV as a 30-goal man who could score more, but constantly battles injuries.
Crosby, on the other hand, fell way short of expectations many had for him in 2010. A Hart and an Art Ross is all he got in 10 seasons that followed. Anyone who would have predicted that would be called a hater back then.
As for Crosby aging gracefully - we probably have to wait and see, but so far in his post-30 career he had one meh season, one great season and one injury-marred season.

Your problem is focusing on seasons and numbers instead of overall play. Ovechkin was no longer capable of driving play in 2012 like his younger days and had to reinvent his game as a shooter that significantly impacted his overall effect on the play to everyone except stat-heads who love goals above all else. No he didn't "crash and burn", but that was clearly hyperbole that no one believed. But he did fall further from his peak than Crosby has. He was not the best forward in 2013, that was clearly Crosby, and in general he hasn't been anywhere near best player in the league conversations since, outside of an extremely weak forward crop in 2015.

Crosby very obviously peaked from 23-26, as people suggested. The fact that he wasn't able to out up the numbers and awards due to injury is irrelevant to how he actually aged.

His seasons in his late 20s and early 30s have been somewhat disappointing for a number of reasons (MJ, unusually low on-ice shooting percentage in '18, playing through injury in '20), but his play-driving ability continues to be near the top of the league.

This is where the difference in their games shows. Crosby has lost some overall production. Ovechkin has lost playmaking production. But in order to maintain his goalscoring, Ovechkin's play-driving ability has nose-dived, while Crosby's has remained strong. This is why Crosby has remained closer to the best in the league to pretty much everyone but Caps fans.

 

[andrjusha]

I didn't grow up knowing hockey. I came to love the game and all its quirks as is. The hockey assist is not the equivalent of something like a soccer assist.

I've seen way too many times someone push the puck up and the puck bounce randomly off the boards or off the opposing team to another player who is luckily in the right place at the right time and score - benefitting the initial player with a primary assist even though it was wholly unintentional.

I've learned to just take it as it is. A quirk in the sport. Thats why the vast majority of goals have assists attached to them, not to mention secondary assists. So no. Often times assists don't mean what you think it does. You are thinking of soccer.

Its just a whole different mindset/tradition. NHL introduced Rocket Richard trophy for most goals scored only on 1999. Assists in leading soccer leagues were introduced in late 90s and there are no points awards as far as I know.

 

[tenken00]

Its just a whole different mindset/tradition. NHL introduced Rocket Richard trophy for most goals scored only on 1999. Assists in leading soccer leagues were introduced in late 90s and there are no points awards as far as I know.

I understand and I love watching a real tic-tac-toe goal in hockey as much as I do in soccer.

It just feels so odd that in the sport where luck is involved moreso than in any other team sport are assists and secondary assists celebrated so much. Its just weird.

 

[Zuluss]

The whole secondary assist thing has been soundly debunked

I am not sure what has been debunked there. It is true that Crosby falls somewhere around the middle of the pack in terms of his reliance on secondary assists. With his career primary points percentage at 76.2%, he is in the same group as Jagr, Mikita, Yzerman, D. Sedin. Among top100 players in career points, he is 61st in terms of primary points percentage, a bit below median.

Many pass-first players (H. Sedin, Oates) have even lower primary points percentage, but there are also players who have this percentage way higher. Ovechkin, who is 5th among top100 players in career points with primary points percentage of 82.6%, is one of them, and the difference between him and Crosby in terms of relying on secondary assists is bigger than the difference between Crosby and Oates.

It is also interesting that several high-scoring seasons by Crosby had a disproportionate amount of secondary assists (in 2013/14, only 67.3% of Crosby's points were primary points - that's more like a defenseman proportion; in 2006/07, 70.8% of Crosby's points were primary points - that's Oates territory).

This is a bit unusual: normally players have abnormally high percentage of primary points in their best seasons: for Malkin, this percentage was 88.1% in 2011/12 (vs. 77.0% career percentage), for Ovechkin is was 90.2% in 2007/08
(vs. 82.6% career percentage), for Kane 82.1% in 2015/16 (vs. 77.0% career percentage).

So it is probably true that Crosby's peak is not as impressive as his point totals suggest. A look at primary points reveals that: Crosby peaked at 87 primary points in 2009/10, while Ovechkin peaked at 101, Malkin at 96, and Kane also at 87.

 

[BlueMed]

How is this even a question?

 

[Midnight Judges]

This is where the difference in their games shows. Crosby has lost some overall production. Ovechkin has lost playmaking production. But in order to maintain his goalscoring, Ovechkin's play-driving ability has nose-dived, while Crosby's has remained strong. This is why Crosby has remained closer to the best in the league to pretty much everyone but Caps fans.

You can argue that point totals understate Crosby's worth relative to Ovie because Crosby does face-offs, contributes a little on the PK, does more along the boards, and has the puck on his blade more often.

Of course you can also argue that point totals understate Ovechkin's worth relative to Crosby because he's significantly less reliant on secondary assists, he's scored 53% more goals than Sid in their careers, and he's exponentially more physical.

Driving play can happen away from the puck via forecheck (where Ovechkin is light years better than Crosby), screening, or just drawing defenders away from the puck - which nobody in the NHL does as well as Ovie. This is part of why Kuznetsov gets as much space as he does. Ovechkin is the only player in the world where teams voluntarily turn 5 on 4s into 4 on 3s. Every goalie is leaning to the left circle on the Caps powerplay, and often Oshie/Kuz/Backstrom/Carlson are the beneficiaries and Ovie doesn't get a point, or a plus.

Over the past 3 seasons, Ovechkin has more points and 68 more goals than Crosby.

Ovechkin has 100 even strength goals in that span. Crosby has 80 goals overall.

Driving play in the sense that you are talking about has real value, but I think it's questionable if that value outstrips Ovechkin's goal scoring and physicality advantages even on a per game basis, to say nothing of durability.

 

[SouthGeorge]

30-40 range personally

 

[Fantomas]

The whole secondary assist thing has been soundly debunked but let's not stop the narrative about goals shall we.

The vagueness with which you say this is so unsurprising.

 

[wetcoast]

Yup, here it is again, the one and only argument Crosby has over Ovechkin - the all-important ppg.
Never mind that Ovechkin is getting more Hart votes for 71 points (2015/16) than Crosby does for 84 points (2014/15).
Never mind that Ovechkin is voted ahead of Crosby by the same Hart voters every time their points are close (2005/06, 2009/10, 2012/13, 2014/15, 2017/18).

But here is something about their points: Ovechkin has 1,278 career points in 1,152 games, 219 of them secondary assists. So that makes 1,059 primary points.
Crosby has 1,263 career points in 984 games, 301 of them secondary assists. So that makes 962 primary points.
97 primary points is a lot - in 2013/14, usually touted as Crosby's best year, he collected only 70 primary points.

We can add playoffs too: 139 primary points in 168 games for Crosby, 104 primary points in 136 games by Ovechkin. So the career gap is 62 primary points - that's a good season worth of hockey.

Like I said the argument for Ovi is way to goal centric, there is more to winning.

 

[Fantomas]

Please do post Crosby best secondary assists compilation video for our viewing pleasure.
We've seen every career goal, top 10 goals, best goal celebration compilations, etc.
Maybe we will appreciate them more if secondary assists enthusiasts create those for us!

It's not that secondary assists are bad or that Crosby gets more of them than other playmakers. It's just that they're not equivalent to goals.

Nor are assists in general.

 

[Fantomas]

Filinski77 made this point a while ago, so I'll give credit to him: Excluding Ovechkin, there have been 14 50-goal seasons since 2005/2006, and 239 50-assist seasons.

But certain folks will have you believe that goals and assists are equal. It's beyond parody.

 

[wetcoast]

The fact that Ovechkin "reinvented his game" resulted in him being the best forward in the league at 28 and then receiving 14% and 12% of Hart vote at the ages of 29 and 33.
This is very far from "crash and burn" and this is not the career arc people imagined when in 2010 they talked about Ovechkin's play not aging well. Those who said so envisioned 33-year-old OV as a 30-goal man who could score more, but constantly battles injuries.
Crosby, on the other hand, fell way short of expectations many had for him in 2010. A Hart and an Art Ross is all he got in 10 seasons that followed. Anyone who would have predicted that would be called a hater back then.
As for Crosby aging gracefully - we probably have to wait and see, but so far in his post-30 career he had one meh season, one great season and one injury-marred season.

I have pointed this out to you before, he didn't receive that % because the columns add up to 250%

2018-19 NHL Awards Voting | Hockey-Reference.com

 

[Zuluss]

Ovechkin was no longer capable of driving play in 2012 like his younger days and had to reinvent his game as a shooter that significantly impacted his overall effect on the play to everyone except stat-heads who love goals above all else.

I guess your idea of "driving play" is playing like Adam Oates. Ovechkin was very much "driving play" in 2014/15 and even in 2017/18. Crosby outpointed him, but Hart voters backed Ovechkin in a landslide - probably they just did not get the memo that Crosby was "driving play" and they are all "stat-heads who love goals above all else".

Crosby very obviously peaked from 23-26, as people suggested. The fact that he wasn't able to out up the numbers and awards due to injury is irrelevant to how he actually aged.

This is relevant to the difference between projections and facts. Some people suggested in 2010 that Crosby would surpass Ovechkin's career accomplishments because Crosby would age better. Well, those people were wrong - they grossly underestimated how smart and physically gifted Ovechkin is. Ovechkin did not throw his body around to the point where it hurt him, but Crosby did fish for rebounds a bit too much and got a puck to the jaw, and now his body seems to be giving up on him, and Ovechkin is still staying healthy.

in order to maintain his goalscoring, Ovechkin's play-driving ability has nose-dived, while Crosby's has remained strong. This is why Crosby has remained closer to the best in the league to pretty much everyone but Caps fans.

Just a day or two ago 40ish people here voted on the best player 2019-2020 Best NHL Players: Voting (Results Out Now)
Guess what - Crosby and Ovechkin sit next to each other in high teens. Were all voters Caps fans? No. It is just that the idea that Crosby is still a top3-top5 player is a fringe minority opinion. It is a vocal minority, but still.

 

[Zuluss]

I have pointed this out to you before, he didn't receive that % because the columns add up to 250%

2018-19 NHL Awards Voting | Hockey-Reference.com

Vote % means that Ovechkin got 12% of the possible maximum (the situation when every voter votes the player #1), and Kucherov got 98% of that maximum.
This percentage does not have to sum to 100%, it is like a test score - I got 75% and you got 80%, it sums to 155%, so what.

 

[hoglund]

How is this even a question?

He's a great player, it's probably that the op grew up watching Ovi and didn't see the many players that were better.

 

[Volodya Krutov]

Just a day or two ago 40ish people here voted on the best player 2019-2020 Best NHL Players: Voting (Results Out Now)

How Kucherov and Matthews are better than Brayden Point ? Epitome of stat-watching poll. This list is horseshit.

 

[Zuluss]

How Kucherov and Matthews are better than Brayden Point ? This list is horseshit.

Kucherov had 213 points in the past two seasons.
Point had 156 points in the past two seasons.
I fail to see the problem with ranking Kucherov over Point.
Matthews is much closer, but he has a large edge in goals.

 

[Volodya Krutov]

Kucherov had 213 points in the past two seasons.
Point had 156 points in the past two seasons.
I fail to see the problem with ranking Kucherov over Point.
Matthews is much closer, but he has a large edge in goals.

Find me a single Tampa fan saying Kucherov is better than Point. I'll wait. There's a difference between getting points and being an effective hockey player. And that's the whole issue with Ovechkin viewed as a top 10 GOAT. He's not, by a long shot.