Ovechkin milestone thread - 850 and Beyond!

[Midnight Judges]

His dominance over peers for single season has been matched (as pointed out otherwise, I believe Hull had a better single season). And then when you go on to compare full career, Other than Gretzky having the 2 best years between him and Ovechkin, Ovechkin is much better relative to his peers.

N/A in the charts below indicate that the player did not have more goals than 2nd/10th/20th etc.

	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Ovi	52	46	65	56	50	32	38	32	51	53	50	33	49	51	48
2nd	N/A	N/A	52	46	N/A	N/A	N/A	29	43	43	46	N/A	44	50	48
10th	40	40	40	39	35	N/A	36	21	34	33	33	N/A	39	41	34
20th	35	36	32	33	30	32	31	18	30	28	30	32	34	36	29
% over 2nd	#VALUE!	#VALUE!	25%	22%	#VALUE!	#VALUE!	#VALUE!	10%	19%	23%	9%	#VALUE!	11%	2%	0%
% over 10th	30%	15%	63%	44%	43%	#VALUE!	6%	52%	50%	61%	52%	#VALUE!	26%	24%	41%
% over 20th	49%	28%	103%	70%	67%	0%	23%	78%	70%	89%	67%	3%	44%	42%	66%
	1980	1981	1982	1983	1984	1985	1986	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991
Gretzky	51	55	92	71	87	73	52	62	40	54	40	41
2nd	N/A	N/A	64	66	56	71	N/A	58	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10th	47	48	50	48	47	46	46	42	N/A	46	N/A	N/A
20th	40	39	40	41	40	41	41	38	N/A	41	40	40
% over 2nd	#VALUE!	#VALUE!	44%	8%	55%	3%	#VALUE!	7%	#VALUE!	#VALUE!	#VALUE!	#VALUE!
% over 10th	9%	15%	84%	48%	85%	59%	13%	48%	#VALUE!	17%	#VALUE!	#VALUE!
% over 20th	28%	41%	130%	73%	118%	78%	27%	63%	#VALUE!	32%	0 %	#VALUE!

And then sorting brings you to this:

	Over 2nd			Over 10th			Over 20th
Gretzky	55%		Gretzky	85%		Gretzky	130%
Gretzky	44%		Gretzky	84%		Gretzky	118%
Ovi	25%		Ovi	63%		Ovi	103%
Ovi	23%		Ovi	61%		Ovi	89%
Ovi	22%		Gretzky	59%		Gretzky	78%
Ovi	19%		Ovi	52%		Ovi	78%
Ovi	11%		Ovi	52%		Gretzky	73%
Ovi	10%		Ovi	50%		Ovi	70%
Ovi	9%		Gretzky	48%		Ovi	70%
Gretzky	8%		Gretzky	48%		Ovi	67%
Gretzky	7%		Ovi	44%		Ovi	67%
Gretzky	3%		Ovi	43%		Ovi	66%
Ovi	2%		Ovi	41%		Gretzky	63%
Ovi	0%		Ovi	30%		Ovi	49%
			Ovi	26%		Ovi	44%
			Ovi	24%		Ovi	42%
			Gretzky	17%		Gretzky	41%
			Ovi	15%		Gretzky	32%
			Gretzky	15%		Ovi	28%
			Gretzky	13%		Gretzky	28%
			Gretzky	9%		Gretzky	27%
			Ovi	6%		Ovi	23%
						Ovi	3%
						Ovi	0%

^^^Even that is extremely generous to Gretzky and inequitable to Ovechkin because Ovechkin played against a talent pool that was likely 50% deeper. In other words, Gretzky's era's 10th place scorer may very well have equated to Ovie's era's 15th place scorer.

Estimating the size of the NHL's talent pool (1950-2023)

There have been hundreds (and probably thousands) of posts on HOH that discuss the size of the NHL's talent pool. The data that's needed to determine the talent pool (youths actively involved in organized hockey) has never been maintained with any rigour or consistency, across countries and...

forums.hfboards.com

 

[stephenball]

Stats nerds are one of the worst things about sports. We’re living in a time where a player has a super strong chance of breaking a record many thought would be unbreakable, held by the greatest player any sport has ever seen. Just enjoy living potentially in a major time in your favorite sports history, like Ovechkin or not. No Capitals fan in their right mind would say Ovechkin is a better player than Gretzky was, if/when Ovechkin breaks the record it doesn’t harm Gretzky’s reputation even a little bit.

Gretzky’s goal scoring dominance over his peers in the peak of his career is undeniable. Ovechkin’s unbelievable dominance over the span of his career is also undeniable, people his age shouldn’t be doing what he’s doing.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Stats nerds are one of the worst things about sports. We’re living in a time where a player has a super strong chance of breaking a record many thought would be unbreakable, held by the greatest player any sport has ever seen. Just enjoy living potentially in a major time in your favorite sports history, like Ovechkin or not. No Capitals fan in their right mind would say Ovechkin is a better player than Gretzky was, if/when Ovechkin breaks the record it doesn’t harm Gretzky’s reputation even a little bit.

Not sure why you're pinning this on "stats nerds", since 95% of the conversation here is just people discussing this like sports fans have been doing for decades.

But sure, f*** stats nerds and whatever.

 

[filinski77]

Stats nerds are one of the worst things about sports. We’re living in a time where a player has a super strong chance of breaking a record many thought would be unbreakable, held by the greatest player any sport has ever seen. Just enjoy living potentially in a major time in your favorite sports history, like Ovechkin or not. No Capitals fan in their right mind would say Ovechkin is a better player than Gretzky was, if/when Ovechkin breaks the record it doesn’t harm Gretzky’s reputation even a little bit.

Gretzky’s goal scoring dominance over his peers in the peak of his career is undeniable. Ovechkin’s unbelievable dominance over the span of his career is also undeniable, people his age shouldn’t be doing what he’s doing.

“No Capitals fan in their right mind would say Ovechkin is a better player than Gretzky was, if/when Ovechkin breaks the record it doesn’t harm Gretzky’s reputation even a little bit.”

Good thing that literally nobody was making that assertion over the last few pages.

And for what’s it’s worth, my “stat nerd” analysis (which I guess is lingo for statistical context used to make a more informed opinion), would still bring me to the conclusion that Gretzky is still (era adjusted) the best hockey player of all time. He’s just simply not the best goalscorer of all time.

 

[BallardEra]

A 40 goal season this year would leave him with 33 more goals to hit 895 in the remaining final two years of his contract.

 

[Sentinel]

^^^Even that is extremely generous to Gretzky and inequitable to Ovechkin because Ovechkin played against a talent pool that was likely 50% deeper. In other words, Gretzky's era's 10th place scorer may very well have equated to Ovie's era's 15th place scorer.

Estimating the size of the NHL's talent pool (1950-2023)

There have been hundreds (and probably thousands) of posts on HOH that discuss the size of the NHL's talent pool. The data that's needed to determine the talent pool (youths actively involved in organized hockey) has never been maintained with any rigour or consistency, across countries and...

forums.hfboards.com

Gretzky's main goal competitor was Mike Bossy. Ovechkin doesn't have anybody near the same goalscoring prowess (Stamkos turned out to be a flash in the pan).

 

[Midnight Judges]

Gretzky's main goal competitor was Mike Bossy. Ovechkin doesn't have anybody near the same goalscoring prowess (Stamkos turned out to be a flash in the pan).

Right, and Lemieux, and Brett Hull, and Teemu Selanne, and Pavel Bure, and Kurri and Nichols - all of whom cleared the 70 goal mark in Gretzky's era.

So either the entire world immediately started sucking at goal scoring, or it simply got more difficult to do.

 

[norrisnick]

Right, and Lemieux, and Brett Hull, and Teemu Selanne, and Pavel Bure, and Kurri and Nichols - all of whom cleared the 70 goal mark in Gretzky's era.

So either the entire world immediately stated sucking at goal scoring, or it simply got more difficult to do.

60, unless you drop Bure.

But the point remains, in the 26 seasons from '70-'71 through '95-'96 there were 37 60+ goal scorers.
And in the 26 seasons from '96-'97 through last season there were 5 60+ goal scorers.

 

[Sentinel]

Right, and Lemieux, and Brett Hull, and Teemu Selanne, and Pavel Bure, and Kurri and Nichols - all of whom cleared the 70 goal mark in Gretzky's era.

So either the entire world immediately stated sucking at goal scoring, or it simply got more difficult to do.

Gretzky never beat Hull (except in Hull's rookie season), Selanne and Bure in goals.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Gretzky's main goal competitor was Mike Bossy. Ovechkin doesn't have anybody near the same goalscoring prowess (Stamkos turned out to be a flash in the pan).

Stamkos had a bad injury. I don’t think it’s accurate to call him a ‘flash in the pan.’

 

[Shrimper]

Stamkos had a bad injury. I don’t think it’s accurate to call him a ‘flash in the pan.’

He would have a very good chance at 700 goals if not for that

 

[PaulD]

full 2 minute powerplays, empty netters , plus the even strength goals he still burries enough of .... should pass Gretz next season

 

[PaulD]

Gretzky's main goal competitor was Mike Bossy. Ovechkin doesn't have anybody near the same goalscoring prowess (Stamkos turned out to be a flash in the pan).

Stamps 1003 games 515 goals

"Flash in the pan" ..... yea sure.

 

[Randyne]

Gretzky's main goal competitor was Mike Bossy. Ovechkin doesn't have anybody near the same goalscoring prowess (Stamkos turned out to be a flash in the pan).

That's false.
Stamkos adjusted goals better than Bossy's. Also Kovalchuk is comparable with him too.

Steven Stamkos	Adj. G	Mike Bossy	Adj. G	Ilya Kovalchuk	Adj. G
2011-12	68​	1978-79	58​	2007-08	58​
2009-10	56​	1980-81	52​	2005-06	52​
2012-13	56​	1982-83	48​	2003-04	48​
2010-11	50​	1985-86	48​	2008-09	46​
2014-15	49​	1977-78	47​	2009-10	45​
2018-19	46​	1981-82	47​	2006-07	44​
2015-16	41​	1984-85	46​	2002-03	43​
2021-22	41​	1979-80	43​	2011-12	42​
2019-20	34​	1983-84	40​	2009-10	34​
2022-23	33​	1986-87	32​	2010-11	34​

So Ovechkin beat 3 Mikes Bossy and 1 Gretzky

Alexander Ovechkin	Adj. G	Wayne Gretzky	Adj. G
2007-08	72​	1983-84	69​
2012-13	62​	1981-82	68​
2014-15	60​	1984-85	58​
2008-09	59​	1982-83	57​
2013-14	58​	1986-87	52​
2019-20	58​	1988-89	45​
2015-16	57​	1979-80	43​
2009-10	55​	1980-81	42​
2005-06	52​	1985-86	41​
2018-19	52​	1990-91	37​
2017-18	50​	1993-94	35​
2021-22	49​	1989-90	34​
2006-07	48​	1987-88	33​
2011-12	43​	1991-92	28​
2022-23	40​	1996-97	26​
2016-17	37​	1997-98	26​
2020-21	37​	1995-96	22​
2010-11	35​	1994-95	19​

 

[pi314]

Gretzky's main goal competitor was Mike Bossy. Ovechkin doesn't have anybody near the same goalscoring prowess (Stamkos turned out to be a flash in the pan).

Stamkos was never a “flash in the pan”.

Had a bad injury and was never the same since.

Still had multiple 40 goal seasons and 500+ career goals.

Not too shabby for a flash in the pan.

 

[Fantomas]

Going by Hockey Reference calculations, only two of Bossy's goal scoring seasons even adjust to 50 or more in today's scoring environment.

Stamkos has 4 such seasons. He compares quite well to Bossy. Both led the league in scoring twice.

Bossy is easily the most overrated goal scorer in hockey history. People see his inflated 80s totals and think he'd score that way today. He would not.

Stamkos was never a “flash in the pan”.

Had a bad injury and was never the same since.

Still had multiple 40 goal seasons and 500+ career goals.

Not too shabby for a flash in the pan.

Stamkos had a 60 goal season. In this era. Where goalies wear literal mattresses on their bodies.

 

[BallardEra]

He would have a very good chance at 700 goals if not for that

I still think him and Sid hit 700.

 

[BallardEra]

Most NHL Goals After Age 38 | StatMuse

Gordie Howe has the most career goals by a player older than 38, with 152 scored.

www.statmuse.com

 

[Fitzy]

Stamkos had a 60 goal season. In this era. Where goalies wear literal mattresses on their bodies.

GPG adjusted tallies are really all you can do, the rest has committed v variable problems.

For example, yes it's easier to score on a goalie wearing 80's pads, but it's also much harder to score when you're playing with a wooden stick over a composite one. It's not a coincidence in my opinion that the goalie pad shift and stick shift happened around the same time.

 

[BallardEra]

GPG adjusted tallies are really all you can do, the rest has committed v variable problems.

For example, yes it's easier to score on a goalie wearing 80's pads, but it's also much harder to score when you're playing with a wooden stick over a composite one. It's not a coincidence in my opinion that the goalie pad shift and stick shift happened around the same time.

Still think it was much easier to score in the 1980s than it is today.

How many of these guys would have been able to score 50 in today's game?:

Wayne Babych
Rick Kehoe
Blaine Stoughton
Pierre Larouche
Jacques Richard
Al Secord
Mike Bullard
John Ogrodnick
Bobby Carpenter
Jimmy Carson
Hakan Loob
Bernie Nicholls
Joe Mullen
Gary Leeman
Brian Bellows

 

[Fantomas]

For example, yes it's easier to score on a goalie wearing 80's pads, but it's also much harder to score when you're playing with a wooden stick over a composite one.

All those untipped goals going in from around the blueline say otherwise.

Not that this is relevant to the topic at hand, or the fact that Bossy is an overrated goalscorer.

 

[Sentinel]

Stamkos was never a “flash in the pan”.

Had a bad injury and was never the same since.

Still had multiple 40 goal seasons and 500+ career goals.

Not too shabby for a flash in the pan.

Compared to Bossy (9 straight 50+ goal seasons), Stamkos is a flash in the pan. It's all about the reference point.

And I don't hold adjusted numbers in high esteem.

He would have a very good chance at 700 goals if not for that

If

 

[Sentinel]

Still think it was much easier to score in the 1980s than it is today.

How many of these guys would have been able to score 50 in today's game?:

Wayne Babych
Rick Kehoe
Blaine Stoughton
Pierre Larouche
Jacques Richard
Al Secord
Mike Bullard
John Ogrodnick
Bobby Carpenter
Jimmy Carson
Hakan Loob
Bernie Nicholls
Joe Mullen
Gary Leeman
Brian Bellows

The only correct answer to this question is: "We'll never know."

 

[norrisnick]

Compared to Bossy (9 straight 50+ goal seasons), Stamkos is a flash in the pan. It's all about the reference point.

And I don't hold adjusted numbers in high esteem.

What about goals scored rankings? Raw totals between eras is next to useless as a comparison.

1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 4, 7, 9
vs
1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 5, 7

One had injuries to end his career and the other had injuries to interrupt his prime. One faced off with Gretzky the other with Ovechkin. If Stamkos is a flash, so is Bossy.

 

[Shrimper]

I still think him and Sid hit 700.

Stamkos has a chance as he's, what, 33?

Sid being 36 it depends how long he plays. He needs 150 goals. 35 a year?