Ottawa Senators: Outlining a Successful 2022-23 Season

[Cenzo_]

It just invites Leaf/Habs fans to trash the Sens.

You'll find Habs fan quieter about trashing other teams with the way our team is going to let goals in this year

For the Leafs, you should love it when they trash your team, because it is an open invitation to remind them about their pathetic record in the 1st round which they just can't defend

 

[Holymakinaw]

Then again, Leaf fans are the experts on off-season expectations.

Sometimes when I want to take my mind off my team's offseason expectations, I pretend I'm riding in an elevator by painting a vertical row of numbers on the inside of my bedroom closet and I stand in there and hum Carpenter's tunes.

Give it a try.

 

[NyQuil]

Sometimes when I want to take my mind off my team's offseason expectations, I pretend I'm riding in an elevator by painting a vertical row of numbers on the inside of my bedroom closet and I stand in there and hum Carpenter's tunes.

Give it a try.

I'm doing it right now!

 

[TaLoN]

He has the same peripheral stats as Fleury, guess he's junk too.

He's not great either.

I looked at the trade as a completely lateral move. Talbot was no loss, Gus isn't the answer, obviously neither is a 37yro Fleury. Good thing the Wild have Wallstedt on the way.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Uhhh... WHAT?! He's TERRIBLE!

Finished season something like 13-0-1

 

[TaLoN]

Finished season something like 13-0-1

Thanks to the team in front of him, yes.

His underlying numbers show he let in FAR MORE goals than he should have. Phenomenal defense in front of him, but couldn't make the expected saves... something like a -17.5 below where he should've been to even reach average.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

Thanks to the team in front of him, yes.

His underlying numbers show he let in FAR MORE goals than he should have. Phenomenal defense in front of him, but couldn't make the expected saves... something like a -17.5 below where he should've been to even reach average.

One of my favourite parts of this offseason is your religious zeal in correcting people who say Talbot is a good goalie. I agree with you whole heartedly!

 

[KevinRedkey]

DeBrincat - Stutzle - Giroux
Tkachuk - Norris - Batherson
Motte - Pinto - Joseph
Kelly - Brassard - Watson
PP1:
PP2:

Chabot - Zub
Sanderson - Hamonic
Holden - Thomson
PK:

Forsberg - Talbot

Notes:
= Among the worst in the NHL
= Below average
= Average
= Above average
= Among the best in the NHL
- Stars are based on depth vs other teams depth. 2nd line is among the best 2nd lines in the NHL, thus 5 stars.
- Sanderson could realistically make the 2nd pair average if he plays well enough.
- If Formenton signs and plays 3LW, the I think that's a 4 star 3rd line, or better.
- Bottom D pairing could change, but is average unless Zaitsev plays in which case it's 2 stars.

Edit:
After some thought, I lowered the score of D1 and F3 by 1 star each.

 

[LeafGrief]

A good season for the Senators will mean getting out of the basement. Small chance they exceed expectations and make the playoffs, but they’re far more likely to be scrapping around the edge of the WC bubble. Lots of good teams in the east this year, looking at the Sens improvement will be somewhat subjective.

 

[HockeyVirus]

Pre-season is pre-season but I don't see any signs they fixed their issues from last year. I think their goalies are going to get shredded alive if their defensive play so far is any indication. Sure they will score goals but they won't be good enough to consistently outscore their problems in the Atlantic.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Pre-season is pre-season but I don't see any signs they fixed their issues from last year. I think their goalies are going to get shredded alive if their defensive play so far is any indication. Sure they will score goals but they won't be good enough to consistently outscore their problems in the Atlantic.

Yep you also say how well the leafs will do each playoffs, so you dont have a good track record yet on predicting.

 

[swiftwin]

I don't understand why people are acting like Talbot is supposed to make or break the Sens season. Forsberg was excellent for the Sens last season. Talbot was brought in as insurance and, at most, be a tandem goalie. If Talbot plays poorly, then the Sens will just lean on Forsberg more.

 

[GeeoffBrown]

Here's what I would consider successful:

-not out of it by January
-career years from Stutzle, Tkachuk and Chabot

 

[HockeyVirus]

Yep you also say how well the leafs will do each playoffs, so you dont have a good track record yet on predicting.

This is their year!

 

[notbias]

DeBrincat - Stutzle - Giroux
Tkachuk - Norris - Batherson
Motte - Pinto - Joseph
Kelly - Brassard - Watson
PP1:
PP2:

Chabot - Zub
Sanderson - Hamonic
Holden - Thomson
PK:

Forsberg - Talbot

Notes:
= Among the worst in the NHL
= Below average
= Average
= Above average
= Among the best in the NHL
- Stars are based on depth vs other teams depth. 2nd line is among the best 2nd lines in the NHL, thus 5 stars.
- Sanderson could realistically make the 2nd pair average if he plays well enough.
- If Formenton signs and plays 3LW, the I think that's a 5 star 3rd line
- Bottom D pairing could change, but is average unless Zaitsev plays in which case it's 2 stars.

What is this.... pretty much take a star away from every single line.

 

[KevinRedkey]

What is this.... pretty much take a star away from every single line.

You probably don't know what the word "average" means then. lol

 

[NyQuil]

I don't see why we have to take offence to the criticism that we are too porous defensively when we say as much on our own board.

It's definitely a problem - good goaltending helped mask it last season.

 

[jbeck5]

You probably don't know what the word "average" means then. lol

You put us below average at only one thing...and a lot of above average and league best.

You're essentially describing at #5-10 team in the NHL. I don't think we're there yet. I think we're 15-20 as is...so there should be more below average than above average.

 

[KevinRedkey]

You put us below average at only one thing...and a lot of above average and league best.

You're essentially describing at #5-10 team in the NHL. I don't think we're there yet. I think we're 15-20 as is...so there should be more below average than above average.

Just for fun... take any playoff team you considered "above average" last year. Someone like... St.Louis. They finished 9th in the league in points, and 4th in goals for.

If we take their team last year vs Ottawa's roster from this year, but stats from last year:
Ottawa's top 6: 166 goals scored in 427 games played
St.Louis' top 6: 161 goals scored in 437 games played

Ottawa's top 6 is on par or better than the 4th highest scoring team in the league last year.
Add in a very solid 3rd line, Chabot and Sanderson on D, and how is that not at LEAST a 4 star offense?

And then for defense, one could argue Chabot/Zub is average I guess. Sanderson/Hamonic I put below average. And the 3rd pair is kinda "meh" like a 4th line and doesn't matter all that much. It's average.

I get what you're saying, but our offense is likely among the league best and my ratings reflect that. I'd like to know where exactly you think the ratings should change, rather than a blanket statement.

Note:
Average is also ~16th in the NHL, so a bubble playoff team. If Ottawa was in the West, I think most people would have them in the playoffs. They just happen to be in a tough division.

Ottawa was 22nd in Goals against last year (below average), and 26th in goals for. They were -39 as a whole. Scoring a lot more goals will make a bigger difference than people think IMO.

 

[hamzarocks]

3 years in a row we've heard about all the promise in Ottawa, how they might just surprise us, how they are going to be contenders for a long time.

I feel like they just aren't built that well. Unless Sanderson turns into Heiskanen and Stutzle and Co start to actually produce to their talent levels, I just see a team that is going to really frustrate their fans.

Amazing to think that most of these guys will already be beyond their ELCs and onto their 2nd contracts and there is still basically no pressure, nor does anyone in media really dare make a disparging comment. Shows the difference between Toronto/Montreal/Vancouver and the smaller markets.

Ottawa began their rebuild like 3 years ago lool

I don't like their team obviously but they traded Karlsson in 2018 summer

It's now 2022. 4 years since then. No way was anyone expecting anything but tbe tank for the sens 3 years ago

This is the first year they've made win now moves like ADB and Giroux.

If they finish with 90 pts or higher its a good season. If they can make tbe playoffs even better for them

 

[Riddum]

I hope they do well. Lord knows they deserve it

 

[Magic 8 Ball]

You probably don't know what the word "average" means then. lol

If I was shown that without the names, there's no way I'd think you were talking about the Senators. And I like the Sens

Out of five stars, 2.5 is average. Only two of those lines should be above average, and none of them above 3.5-4....unless you're comparing them only to Montreal

 

[KevinRedkey]

If I was shown that without the names, there's no way I'd think you were talking about the Senators. And I like the Sens

Out of five stars, 2.5 is average. Only two of those lines should be above average, and none of them above 3.5-4....unless you're comparing them only to Montreal

2.5 is average if you're starting at 0.
We are starting at 1, therefore 3 is average.

 

[Random Comment]

If I was shown that without the names, there's no way I'd think you were talking about the Senators. And I like the Sens

Out of five stars, 2.5 is average. Only two of those lines should be above average, and none of them above 3.5-4....unless you're comparing them only to Montreal

In what world are the lines of Tkachuk, Norris, Batherson, & Giroux, Stutzle, Debrincat considered average?

The Senators are going to have trouble on D and in nets, but they will be among the highest scoring teams in the NHL this season, likely close to top 5 barring any major injuries to those players or Chabot.

 

[TaLoN]

2.5 is average if you're starting at 0.
We are starting at 1, therefore 3 is average.

So you're actually using a 4 star system trying to masquerade as 5?

Typically every star seen can be lost, which makes 2.5 the average. By making the first star the bottom, you're asking for visual confusion as the three look above avg when compared to one vs five .