Ottawa Senators: Outlining a Successful 2022-23 Season

[NyQuil]

3 years in a row we've heard about all the promise in Ottawa, how they might just surprise us, how they are going to be contenders for a long time.

This is the first season where there have been any kind of expectations around the Senators, and those expectations are clear to everyone who can read.

They traded almost everyone, patiently drafted high for a bunch of years and are now starting to see that talent develop.

Promise is a future-focused concept.

I feel like they just aren't built that well. Unless Sanderson turns into Heiskanen and Stutzle and Co start to actually produce to their talent levels, I just see a team that is going to really frustrate their fans.

Stutzle and Sanderson are 20 years old.

Amazing to think that most of these guys will already be beyond their ELCs and onto their 2nd contracts and there is still basically no pressure, nor does anyone in media really dare make a disparging comment. Shows the difference between Toronto/Montreal/Vancouver and the smaller markets.

I think the difference is that the Senators haven't failed to get past the first round in 6 consecutive attempts, and after being in the position of eliminating their opponent over the last three straight only to choke in epic fashion.

You tell me what the pressure in Montreal is like these days. Pressure to lose?

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

I think the difference is that the Senators haven't failed to get past the first round in 6 consecutive attempts, and after being in the position of eliminating their opponent over the last three only to choke hard.

I get the point you are making and the shot at the Leafs, but when Matthews and Marner were in their 21 year old seasons, they actually were expected to make the playoffs as a given. There were no kid gloves, no "well this is just another building year, lets see how they do next year!".

Marner scored 94pts at age 21 and was being raked over the goals as the most overrated overpaid bum in the NHL.

Different standards in different markets.

 

[King Karl]

3 years in a row we've heard about all the promise in Ottawa, how they might just surprise us, how they are going to be contenders for a long time.

No doubt that the team has underwhelmed the past two seasons, but this is the first year we've seen actual concrete change that push us in the right direction.

I feel like they just aren't built that well. Unless Sanderson turns into Heiskanen and Stutzle and Co start to actually produce to their talent levels, I just see a team that is going to really frustrate their fans.

Not entirely sure I agree on this. There's depth everywhere in the lineup except at RHD and in net. The forward group might not have a Matthews/Marner or Barkov/Tkachuk analog, but it's deep with talent and should have three lines that can score with two very solid PP groups in tow. The back end isn't perfect, but it's also not terribly far off. A clone of Zub and we're pretty much set. In net is where the question marks are, but that's really the luck of the draw. If Forsberg keeps up his level of play from last year we're set, and Soogard has definite starter potential.

Amazing to think that most of these guys will already be beyond their ELCs and onto their 2nd contracts and there is still basically no pressure, nor does anyone in media really dare make a disparging comment. Shows the difference between Toronto/Montreal/Vancouver and the smaller markets.

Isn't that a good thing? To quote a very wise man:

 

[NyQuil]

I get the point you are making and the shot at the Leafs, but when Matthews and Marner were in their 21 year old seasons, they actually were expected to make the playoffs as a given. There were no kid gloves, no "well this is just another building year, lets see how they do next year!".

Marner scored 94pts at age 21 and was being raked over the goals as the most overrated overpaid bum in the NHL.

Different standards in different markets.

Right, and next year, Stutzle and Sanderson will be 21 years old and the expectation is that the Senators will make the playoffs.

The timelines are exactly aligned and the standard is identical.

They have to make the playoffs next season to make the most of Giroux.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

No doubt that the team has underwhelmed the past two seasons, but this is the first year we've seen actual concrete change that push us in the right direction.

Not entirely sure I agree on this. There's depth everywhere in the lineup except at RHD and in net. The forward group might not have a Matthews/Marner or Barkov/Tkachuk analog, but it's deep with talent and should have three lines that can score with two very solid PP groups in tow. The back end isn't perfect, but it's also not terribly far off. A clone of Zub and we're pretty much set. In net is where the question marks are, but that's really the luck of the draw. If Forsberg keeps up his level of play from last year we're set, and Soogard has definite starter potential.

Isn't that a good thing? To quote a very wise man:

That's my secret....I'm always mad

What's the Sens healthy line up look like?

 

[NyQuil]

That's my secret....I'm always mad

What's the Sens healthy line up look like?

Something like:



Tkachuk-Norris-Batherson
DeBrincat-Stutzle-Giroux
Motte-Pinto-Joseph
Kelly-Kastelic-Watson
Gambrell

Chabot-Zub
Sanderson-Hamonic
Brannstrom-Holden
Zaitsev

Forsberg
Talbot (injured)
Hellberg/Sogaard

Missing: Formenton (contract status)

-Having the speedy Formenton would be huge but it's a big question mark for awhile. He would likely push a 3rd liner down to the 4th line (Motte?).
-Another top 4 D would be nice as any injury to the guys we have could be significant and it's asking a lot of Jake in his rookie season.
-Someone griping about goaltending - that's fine, but there are like six good goalies in the league and a bunch of meh and we don't have one of those six guys.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

Right, and next year, Stutzle and Sanderson will be 21 years old and the expectation is that the Senators will make the playoffs.

The timelines are exactly aligned and the standard is identical.

Wrote out a more thought out post about this reply, but decided it's not helpful. Reality is those big markets do get more attention, but with that attention, more criticism and expectations. Ottawa is sheltered from that. They are a media darling in the sparse coverage they do get.

 

[NyQuil]

Wrote out a more thought out post about this reply, but decided it's not helpful. Reality is those big markets do get more attention, but with that attention, more criticism and expectations. Ottawa is sheltered from that. They are a media darling in the sparse coverage they do get.

I'm not sure how old you are, but Ottawa had a tremendous amount of pressure in the early to late 2000s.

"Ottawa didn't have playoff type players." "Ottawa has too many Europeans." "Ottawa will never get anywhere with Alfredsson as the Captain." "Lalime will never get you over the hump."

It's fair to say that big markets have more pressure comparatively speaking, but to say that Ottawa is incapable of having any is silly.

The reason Ottawa has recently had no pressure is because they had no expectations, and they had no expectations because of a lack of winning, a generally disliked owner, and no budget.

They traded their best two players (Stone and Karlsson) and basically burnt the team to the ground for a scorched earth rebuild.

There was no pressure in Toronto when they had Garrett Sparks playing in net the year Matthews was drafted.

It comes and goes with the circumstances.

I'd say there has been a lot of pressure on Pierre Dorion personally as Ottawa fans were starting to get impatient with when they would get on with competing.

I'm not sure if you're aware of the "Five Year Run of Unprecedented Success" or the FYROUS/FYOUS where Melnyk famously bragged that they'd spend to the cap once they had the fundamentals in place.

Sadly, he didn't live to see it, but according to Dorion (whether he's being nice or not), what he's doing now was always the plan - complementing their young drafted core players with more experienced veteran talent.

Most Senators fans (including myself) thought it was a pipe dream to keep Ottawa fans hoping and Dorion was the scapegoat for a team that was in the basement for some time.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

If they can add a #2 or #3 defensemen so Chabot can actually be a good defensemen (listen he is amazing but man o man some of the games you can tell he is gassed and making some sub optimal plays because he has to do everything).

If they solve that problem so the 2nd pairing can be anchored playoff bound 100%.

They have a shot at taking the 7th or 8th spot though with Boston having injuries. Marchand and Macavoy.

Don't sleep on Buffalo though they are coming. Heck even Detroit. I think the East at a whole is going to have a shakeup. Just don't know If it is this year or down the road.

 

[NyQuil]

Don't sleep on Buffalo though they are coming. Heck even Detroit. I think the East at a whole is going to have a shakeup. Just don't know If it is this year or down the road.

I really like Buffalo this year.

No one is really talking about them but they've got a good thing going with respect to their dressing room, Power and Dahlin on the point and guys like Peterka and Quinn coming into the line-up.

They have unreal depth and with fewer acquisitions, may be able to hit the ground running when the season starts.

I think Detroit is a bit more of a project but they've got some foundational pieces as well.

You wonder how long some of the older teams like Boston, Pittsburgh, Washington can keep up but they always seem to a lot longer than predicted.

 

[ToDavid]

My bet is that they're in the mix with Buffalo and Detroit for a wildcard spot. I think they're just outside given the competition from both the Atlantic and the Metro for those spots but the middle will be close so it wouldn't be a huge surprise if they take one.

 

[Mark Stones Spleen]

The forwards are good strong enough to compensate for a weaker defense, but I think it's going to be coaching that's the downfall for Ottawa this year. A better coach and I believe they'd really push hard for a playoff spot with this exact team.

 

[Godzilla]

It just invites Leaf/Habs fans to trash the Sens.

As a Habs fan, we have no dog in this fight. The Sens are years ahead of the Habs in their rebuild. You have a great forward group and a piece or two away on the backend to be a contender.

Its a fun time to be a Sens fan.

 

[AvroArrow]

It just invites Leaf/Habs fans to trash the Sens.

As much as I hate the Sens, I for one have been fully on board with what the Sens management has done. I think Dorion has made some brilliant moves now that he's not basically being controlled by ownership. I have very high expectations for the Sens and fully expect them to make the WC spot. They have made some phenomenal moves this summer and IMO are going to beat out Boston for the last spot.

 

[NyQuil]

As much as I hate the Sens, I for one have been fully on board with what the Sens management has done. I think Dorion has made some brilliant moves now that he's not basically being controlled by ownership. I have very high expectations for the Sens and fully expect them to make the WC spot. They have made some phenomenal moves this summer and IMO are going to beat out Boston for the last spot.

I agree that goaltending / defence / team defence remains the big stumbling block between Ottawa making the playoffs or not.

Ottawa had stellar goaltending last year and a regression could offset some of the additions they've made in other areas.

But again, I think the bar is competing in the New Year. Ottawa's core still has a lot of learning to do in terms of playing the right way and not necessarily trying to outscore their problems.

If Ottawa is out of the picture by then, DJ Smith may be the first casualty.

 

[Bouboumaster]

It just invites Leaf/Habs fans to trash the Sens.

We hear the call!

 

[AvroArrow]

I agree that goaltending / defence / team defence remains the big stumbling block between Ottawa making the playoffs or not.

Ottawa had stellar goaltending last year and a regression could offset some of the additions they've made in other areas.

But again, I think the bar is competing in the New Year. Ottawa's core still has a lot of learning to do in terms of playing the right way and not necessarily trying to outscore their problems.

If Ottawa is out of the picture by then, DJ Smith may be the first casualty.

Since January of last year, Ottawa was one of the most dangerous teams not just on the stat sheet. But I absolutely hated playing against them, now they've added to that core. The addition of Debrincat, a healthy Batherson is going to do wonders for them.

Boston is battling injuries as well as an aging core, sooner or late they have to bow out and make room for a new team. I think this is the year.

 

[swiftwin]

Having Talbot out the first 1 to 2 months is not going to help much that's for sure. He was a big part of their off season moves.

Except he really wasn't. The Sens had stellar goaltending from Forsberg last season. Talbot was brought in as insurance in case Forsberg got hurt or faltered. It was always going to be a tandem situation. Talbot being out doesn't change much other than having less insurance for the first 4-6 weeks of the season.

 

[bert]

Their team defense is complete ass

Another year or two away. But they will improve from last year

This is the new narrative from leaf fans eh. This one works really well for you guys. Well done, this excuses Murray's play. Puts down the sens and justifys your position that they will be no good. Now a quarter of the board is saying it consistently. It must be true.

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

Signing Cam Talbot was the underrated signing this summer. Too bad he's injured and hope he won't be out for long.

 

[bert]

I disagree with people underestimating the below. Sort of in order of how much of a factor it should be.

-Tkachuk, Norris, Batherson already very good and now a year older.

-Stutzle being a top level talent who started showing that at NHL level last year already.

-Addition of Giroux

-Addition of DeBrincat

-Addition (in a way) of Pinto and how good he is

-Addition of Sanderson and how good he is/can be

-Joseph from the start

-Chabot not having to play 28 min

-Zub is good

-Forsberg was good last year

-Hamonic and Holden are decent

-Brannstrom is trending finally

-JBD and Thomson have upside

I think people base projections too much on team name and previous standings. While of course there are question marks the Sens have improved immensely. Sick top 9 and some albeit few imorovements on D. But them trading for a D-man is of course very likely.

Why look at it critically when you can be an insecure leaf fan and compare this season to the previous 3 when everyone thought they'd be bad and were clearly still in a rebuild.

I get the point you are making and the shot at the Leafs, but when Matthews and Marner were in their 21 year old seasons, they actually were expected to make the playoffs as a given. There were no kid gloves, no "well this is just another building year, lets see how they do next year!".

Marner scored 94pts at age 21 and was being raked over the goals as the most overrated overpaid bum in the NHL.

Different standards in different markets.

You can't even get the years right that was Marners 3rd season his F + 4 and he was 22. You're lost. That's would be Stutzles next season compared to when he was drafted. Its not even this year. Next year most people would expect Ottawa to make the playoffs. That's literally what everyone is saying. Compete for a spot this year, playoffs next.

 

[leafsfan5]

This is the new narrative from leaf fans eh. This one works really well for you guys. Well done, this excuses Murray's play. Puts down the sens and justifys your position that they will be no good. Now a quarter of the board is saying it consistently. It must be true.

It's not a narrative, your team objectively sucks at defense lmao. It has nothing to do with Murray, a lot of us know he sucked for a majority of his time as a Senator

 

[TaLoN]

Signing Cam Talbot was the underrated signing this summer. Too bad he's injured and hope he won't be out for long.

Uhhh... WHAT?! He's TERRIBLE!

 

[bert]

It's not a narrative, your team objectively sucks at defense lmao. It has nothing to do with Murray, a lot of us know he sucked for a majority of his time as a Senator

A classic HF boards play. When a poster who clearly can't be objective about another team tells that teams fans about said team like they are some authority. Atleast there are some fans who can be objective dispite not being a fan of Ottawa like @AvroArrow .

Murray was a massive part of why Ottawa was so bad in 2021. He blew leads when they needed stability. As soon as he had a bad game he was 'hurt' after. Resulting in Ottawa carrying 3 goalies almost the entire season. Murray looked visibly sick. I am glad he looks healthier this year hopefully he has worked out whatever was wrong with him and it's in the past. However this resulted in Gustavsson being a yo yo up and down all year. Seemingly damaging his development. The was no continuity or leadership in net which for a young rebuilding team is paramount if they are going to have success. The first half of the season was a disaster, injuries and being riddled by covid combined with terrible roster decisions by management had the sens in dead last playing at a 60 point pace.

In the new year on they were a much better team. Forsberg solidified the net and better roster decisions helped the D core. IE playing Holden and Zub in a top 4 role so they had 2 legit pairings to play. The teams GAA dropped dramatically in the new year. Which not ironically at all is the time period leaf fans choose to cherry pick and grab Murray's stats from the 14 games he played in 2022.

Since 2021 this is a completely different team from a roster perspective. The D core had 3 solid d men in Chabot, Zub and Holden and those are essentially the only d men that will play consistently from 2021. Hamonic, Sanderson, Brannstrom and Bernard Docker have replaced the trash that played the previous season. Is it a Rockstar d core... No not yet but it's alot better is younger and has potential to be better. The forwards have also had a make over. So to come out and say 'your team objectively sucks defensively lmao' is based on a roster from 2021 that is nothing like this one.

Lastly the sens literally ate money to get rid of Murray. Just try and wrap your head around that concept. They wanted him out of the room and organization.

For his own health I hope he turns it around. But I'm glad he is gone.

 

[RickyLafleur]

He's not very good anyway. They're missing a terrible goalie for 1-2 months.

He has the same peripheral stats as Fleury, guess he's junk too.