News Article: Ottawa Senators Organization Actively Considering Building Arena At Lebreton Flats

[danishh]

That would be so great. Then they could buy out Eugene.

they dont have the money. Franchise transaction would be ~400-500M. Even if they did have that kind of capital lying around, they make a far greater return on investment by developing land.

Just like the original terrace play, and the OSEG landsdowne play, the arena can be built by leveraging the sens and their community support to 'win' development rights, essentially a situation where a government decides which private business gets to make gobs of money off their land in exchange for delivering a beneficial development for the city. Unlike the 1990's when a franchise cost $50M from the NHL, even the top ottawa developers, working as a team, dont have that kind of capital to blow on a vanity project. Melnyk is here to stay, but if he's able to work on this deal with [insert developer or group of developers], the resulting franchise with a brand new downtown arena will be a whole lot more attractive for [insert next out-of-town billionaire who wants to buy a vanity franchise].

I'm genuinely terrified that when Mr. Melnyk decides to sell or is forced to (either through further losses in outside businesses or due to his own expiration), no one will be interested at a price level the NHL would accept. A lebreton arena would probably make attracting [insert next out-of-town billionaire who wants to buy a vanity franchise] a whole lot easier. The alternative would probably be sticking it out in kanata and having the estate of mr. melnyk take a loss on sale a few decades down the road, unless of course there are another few lockouts that lead to a further reduction in labour costs or a significant redistribution of overall revenues league-wide.

Even if forbes is right about the sens numbers, a $400M+ purchase price for an annual return of less than 5% EBITDA is a pretty tough financial proposition. I understand that it's really easy to hate melnyk for a whole lot of reasons, but there really isnt a viable alternative unless there's a billionaire out there who wants to make a horrible financial decision out of his love for both the game and the city. Last I checked there are no Steve Ballmer's kicking around the Ottawa valley.

 

[Fandlauer]

I'm just baffled so many people think that there is a possibility of this happening with the NCC involved.

The city can't get a mile of railroad track on their land, but we're going to build a stadium on it lol. Never gonna happen. We might as well wish for the tooth fairy to magically place prime Gretzky on our team as well.

I'm sure 1500 versions of "Friends of Lebreton" will be there to put a quick death to this one as well.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Way to make it sound like the future of the NHL in Ottawa hinges on this there danishh

One thing I like about these threads is you get all the smart posters from back in the day to pop in; I expected Veni, Vidi, Vici to have posted in here by now

Good to see some of you chaps

 

[Quo]

I'm just baffled so many people think that there is a possibility of this happening with the NCC involved.

Thing is, Firestone is guy about as well connected to the realities of this market as you could ever hope to find. He says things have shifted somehow. Go figure, but that's something to chew on.

 

[pepty]

tEven if forbes is right about the sens numbers, a $400M+ purchase price for an annual return of less than 5% EBITDA is a pretty tough financial proposition. I understand that it's really easy to hate melnyk for a whole lot of reasons, but there really isnt a viable alternative unless there's a billionaire out there who wants to make a horrible financial decision out of his love for both the game and the city. Last I checked there are no Steve Ballmer's kicking around the Ottawa valley.

I cant remember who now-but it was reported awhile ago that were were several offers to buy the team or to partner with Melnyk but he turned them down.
If he even took a partner they might be able to tone him down a bit but I dont think he's the partner type.
He has to stop meddling in the team, I really think we are gong to have a couple of disastrous years here, hopefully not but I think we will. I am afraid that fans will get cheesed off and not support the team.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Thing is, Firestone is guy about as well connected to the realities of this market as you could ever hope to find. He says things have shifted somehow. Go figure, but that's something to chew on.

This is all Baird

 

[Quo]

This is all Baird

Oh yeah, that guy.

For sure. I don't doubt that at all.

 

[danishh]

Way to make it sound like the future of the NHL in Ottawa hinges on this there danishh

One thing I like about these threads is you get all the smart posters from back in the day to pop in; I expected Veni, Vidi, Vici to have posted in here by now

Good to see some of you chaps

Well, i didnt intend for it to sound that dramatic, but yeah, either that or a big haircut for melnyk at sale time (something i'm sure many posters around here wouldnt mind). I dont for a second think the NHL would allow the sens to move, but the league cant always magically produce a new buyer at a price level the outgoing owner expects (or other owners expect, since every team transaction has some bearing on the values of all other teams).

Taking a bit of a step back from the ledge, i'll say this - the future of the sens in ottawa isnt really in doubt, but what kind of future they have here is... are we going to continue to try to win through drafting and development and bottom-of-the-league payrolls, or are we going to have a franchise where the financials justify spending between the midpoint and the cap and have an acceptable return left over for the owner.

Ticket revenue is determined by the market, and we're close to maxed out right now as shown by attendance that is normally over 90% but not routinely a sellout. We just signed a great tv contract, plus the new national contract, and labour costs as a percentage of revenue have never been lower, yet still the sens only make a decent return for the owner when the payroll is at a minimum.

I know many are suspicious of mr melnyk but there doesnt appear to be any evidence he's doing any better on the sens than i'm doing on a fairly conservative mutual fund. Worse still, the idiotic economics of the NHL dictate that labor costs rise based on overall league revenues, so in order to improve their margins teams like ottawa, edmonton, winnipeg, etc are expected to grow their revenues at a greater rate than toronto, montreal, vancouver, nyr et al. A downtown arena theoretically will boost demand for sens tickets, allowing that revenue stream to grow. Coupling that with some sort of subsidy from the developers should be enough to make this project financially feasible.

The only question i have remaining is whether I am in fact right and the NCC will see a proposal including the arena as far preferable to one with either a new museum (which i dont see the feds funding), some other imaginary public institution (i'm honestly interested to see what else is proposed), or just turning the entire thing into high-density mixed-use mid-rise, an option that probably nets the NCC the highest lease values but no public benefit (other than financial prudence, of course).

 

[Do Make Say Think]

If Lebreton Flats becomes host to more hise-rise condos I'm going to be depressed

I live 20 minutes awar from Lebreton on foot on the Vieux Hull side, an arena and other businesses could do wonders for the area: Eddy street could really use a bit of life

 

[SilverSeven]

So you think alienating the residents of Kanata, Orleans, Barrhaven, South Ottawa etc is the way to go?

Live in South Ottawa. Taking the Otrain to a Sens game at Lebreton flats would be a dream. Would be able to drink and would be there and back in half the time it takes me to get one way to CTC.

 

[SilverSeven]

I bet there would be a waiting list for STHs the second it was announced.

 

[Neil Patrick Harris]

So you think alienating the residents of Kanata, Orleans, Barrhaven, South Ottawa etc is the way to go?

As someone from Barrhaven, I'd much rather go out to Lebreton than out to Kanata.

 

[BonkTastic]

As someone from Barrhaven, I'd much rather go out to Lebreton than out to Kanata.

I used to commute from Barrhaven (Jockvale) to the arena 80+ times a year, and I found it way easier to get to Kanata than it would have to get to Lebreton.

Strandherd to Fallowfield to Eagleson, and you're there. Rarely any traffic.

 

[Bileur]

So you think alienating the residents of Kanata, Orleans, Barrhaven, South Ottawa etc is the way to go?

Lebreton would also be far better for people in Orleans. I regularly hear Orleans and Cumberland residents complain that it takes almost as long to get to CTC as it does to get to the Bell Centre in Montreal.

I don't get this argument at all.

 

[Neil Patrick Harris]

I used to commute from Barrhaven (Jockvale) to the arena 80+ times a year, and I found it way easier to get to Kanata than it would have to get to Lebreton.

Strandherd to Fallowfield to Eagleson, and you're there. Rarely any traffic.

I'm sure Kanata is quicker, but I'm usually not too worried about being pressed for time when I'm going to a hockey game.

If building an arena in Lebreton means stepping on the toes of a few Barrhavenites and Kanataites, then so be it. It's better for the team and it's better for most of the city to have the arena more centrally located.

 

[PoutineSp00nZ]

Lebreton would also be far better for people in Orleans. I regularly hear Orleans and Cumberland residents complain that it takes almost as long to get to CTC as it does to get to the Bell Centre in Montreal.

I don't get this argument at all.

That is absurd. I dated a girl who lived in Rockland and we'd get to games in an hour by car.

As for busses, when i lived in Centretown it took closer to 40 minutes to take the 400 series bus from downtown the the CTC. Maybe tack on 20 minutes to do the same from Place d'orleans.

 

[BonkTastic]

I'm sure Kanata is quicker, but I'm usually not too worried about being pressed for time when I'm going to a hockey game.

If building an arena in Lebreton means stepping on the toes of a few Barrhavenites and Kanataites, then so be it. It's better for the team and it's better for most of the city to have the arena more centrally located.

Yeah, I'm not too put out by the arena moving. Lebreton would definitely be better for the team

I was just talkig in commute times - 15 mins. 20 if I stopped for coffee on the way.

 

[BonkTastic]

This is all Baird

As much as Baird being involved in a local project like this is doing good for Otawa, I ****ing loathe the fact that he's even involved in this at all.

Canada is dropping the ball MASSIVELY on an international level, and our Minister of Foreign Affairs is concerning himself with local arenas and museum renovations.

****ing do your job, Baird. I can think of at least ten things that need your attention here in Indonesia alone, and I doubt that the Canadian interests in Indonesia is the only country that you are ignoring right now.

 

[danishh]

I used to commute from Barrhaven (Jockvale) to the arena 80+ times a year, and I found it way easier to get to Kanata than it would have to get to Lebreton.

Strandherd to Fallowfield to Eagleson, and you're there. Rarely any traffic.

these days the traffic backup starts turning left onto terry fox for barrhavenites. I did it last week for the alfie game... I was at fallowfield and eagleson at 6:15, barely made it to my seat in time for the warmups at 7:00PM.

keep in mind that barrhaven will get a park-n-ride rail link to lebreton 5-10 minutes away via the new strandheard-armstrong bridge and the o-train extension to riverside south in phase 2 LRT. If the ride from the river/earl armstrong park-n-ride to bayview is less than half an hour, a lebreton arena would be a net win for barrhaven/jockvale.

kanata is the loser here, and therein lies the problem. The sens largest and most loyal fanbase has the most to lose, and the sens need to bet on the rest of the city to replace their demand in order for a downtown arena to work.

 

[Stylizer1]

I'm just baffled so many people think that there is a possibility of this happening with the NCC involved.

The city can't get a mile of railroad track on their land, but we're going to build a stadium on it lol. Never gonna happen. We might as well wish for the tooth fairy to magically place prime Gretzky on our team as well.

I'm sure 1500 versions of "Friends of Lebreton" will be there to put a quick death to this one as well.

And they will be crushed again.

 

[Upgrayedd]

Thing is, Firestone is guy about as well connected to the realities of this market as you could ever hope to find. He says things have shifted somehow. Go figure, but that's something to chew on.

This is a big game changer where essentially Firestone had mentioned a top NCC official had mentioned that they had now changed their stance on the area and would strongly consider a private funded project at this point, combine that with the federal push from Baird and recent change of face regarding funding these types of projects i personally cannot see how this does not get done....makes way to much sense. It would be such a game changer for this team and especially city, that i have no doubt!

As for my tax money going that way, i have no problem as i pay into many things i do not use nor are concerned with but that's the way she goes....if done properly i fail to see how this would not make money and become a huge crowning jewel for the city.

 

[Quo]

As much as Baird being involved in a local project like this is doing good for Otawa, I ****ing loathe the fact that he's even involved in this at all.

Canada is dropping the ball MASSIVELY on an international level, and our Minister of Foreign Affairs is concerning himself with local arenas and museum renovations.

****ing do your job, Baird. I can think of at least ten things that need your attention here in Indonesia alone, and I doubt that the Canadian interests in Indonesia is the only country that you are ignoring right now.

He's also the MP for Ottawa-West Nepean though. How he's able to continue as MoF, however ineffectual you think he is, is because he's an MP. Still has constituents in the city. Big stakes.

 

[YNWA14]

If people think that it's congested around the game now an arena downtown in Ottawa would be 100x worse IMO.

That said I don't really care either way where the arena is as long as it's in Ottawa.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

That is absurd. I dated a girl who lived in Rockland and we'd get to games in an hour by car.

As for busses, when i lived in Centretown it took closer to 40 minutes to take the 400 series bus from downtown the the CTC. Maybe tack on 20 minutes to do the same from Place d'orleans.

I'm closer to Hawkesbury than Rockland, but definitely easier to get to the Bell Centre from my location (about 20 mins further east than Rockland) than CTC.

The traffic from Prescott Russell in general is been increasing by leaps and bounds every year, with no increase in road infrastructure at all. There is a ton of cheap land out here and new houses built all the time. You can get a bigger house and way more land here than you can anywhere in Ottawa-Carelton-Kanata, and people are taking advantage of it.

 

[starling]

If people think that it's congested around the game now an arena downtown in Ottawa would be 100x worse IMO.

That said I don't really care either way where the arena is as long as it's in Ottawa.

As long as there is not much parking around (and there won't be) it won't.