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Ottawa 67's 2023-24 Season Thread (Part 2)

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beastintheeast said:
I used the stats since they became 67's

The Schedule is interesting after this weekend

we play London Kitchener erie @Home

Bulls play Flint Erie Sag @Home
Sag Guelph Windsor Flint

Gens flint London Sarnia @Home
OS Erie Sag SSM Kitchener

Fronts Kichener Ldn Erie @Home
Erie Kitchener TheN hell weekend Sag Flint Sarnia

So, from the schedule standpoint, we definitely have the easier time, and I would say Kingston has the worst.

But the question is going to dominate the East games. Yes, we can catch up to and get ahead of some teams, but it is going to depend on how we do in our own division against these teams that will make the difference.
Click to expand...

Hold on! Are you saying that winning divisional games will have a positive impact on winning the division?

:razz:
 
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Btw remember when I said the gens could win the division? Prediction is not looking too bad right now.

Regardless of the seeding between the 4 east division teams (excluding Pete’s I don’t think they make playoffs) I think everyone is very close in skill there’s no team that really jumps out.


Still mad kingston didn’t trade ludwinski. Will inevitably backfire on us next year.
 
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frontsfan67 said:
Btw remember when I said the gens could win the division? Prediction is not looking too bad right now.

Regardless of the seeding between the 4 east division teams (excluding Pete’s I don’t think they make playoffs) I think everyone is very close in skill there’s no team that really jumps out.


Still mad kingston didn’t trade ludwinski. Will inevitably backfire on us next year.
Click to expand...

It is going to take another 2 weeks before we see true separation. If in two weeks, another tier does not form, then it looks more like the top 5 will be bunched up a little. I still think missy will drop to 6th.

Brantford may still be too far ahead to drop to 5th but I still have them finishing in that spot.

Sudbury’s two wins against North Bay shows that either they are a better team than we think or North Bay isn’t quite as good as we think or some sort of combination of the two. Sudbury doesn’t have a particularly easy schedule. They play SSM a couple times, Saginaw, Kitchener, NB, Guelph, three against Oshawa etc. They aren’t in a great situation from that perspective.

I still have NB winning the Conference. Maybe not quite as confident as I was last week but I stil feel with strength of schedule and quality of the team, they should make it.

I still have Ottawa in the 2nd seed. They will need to really have a strong finish though.
 
home awau
Bulls 13 home 10 away considering the home ice advantage that could be huge
67's 11 at home 13 away
Gens 10 home 13 away
Fronts 11 home 13 away

Based on the advantage they have with their arena Bulls should win at home The question becomes what do the rest do as well as the on-the-road teams

I am going to go out on a limb and say
Bulls seem to have it together
67's slightly easier schedule than the Gens
Gens They have an easier schedule than the Fronts.
Fronts The beginning of March will kill the Fronts

67's will get home ice but I am not sure the fight to get it will not hurt them come playoffs. Players will be tired and worn out by then and goaltending will be the big question mark. Also playing the Gens does home ice matter that much
 
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beastintheeast said:
home awau
Bulls 13 home 10 away considering the home ice advantage that could be huge
67's 11 at home 13 away
Gens 10 home 13 away
Fronts 11 home 13 away

Based on the advantage they have with their arena Bulls should win at home The question becomes what do the rest do as well as the on-the-road teams

I am going to go out on a limb and say
Bulls seem to have it together
67's slightly easier schedule than the Gens
Gens They have an easier schedule than the Fronts.
Fronts The beginning of March will kill the Fronts

67's will get home ice but I am not sure the fight to get it will not hurt them come playoffs. Players will be tired and worn out by then and goaltending will be the big question mark. Also playing the Gens does home ice matter that much
Click to expand...

Goaltending for the 67’s is a question mark BUT, I am just guessing here… If MacK were likely out long term, they’d need to use Nelson. I am not sure they can use Saari unless there is another injury. I don’t believe he can start a game or come in relief of a poor performance. The only reason to not bring up Nelson would be simply because MacK isn’t’ likely out long and Michelone can carry the starting load int he short term without any relief required. They have a three game week, followed by a two game week, followed by a four game week (including Family Day game). That is a pretty heavy load. You gotta think Nelson would need to come up at some point in that mess. With the games on the road this weekend, I would be surprised if Saari is the backup. I have a feeling that we will see Nelson start Saturday in Flint.

If MacK is out long term, that will likely be the dagger. That said, Michelone has won all four of his games for Ottawa. 3.17 and .888 isn’t great but it isn’t horrible either. That would put him on par with Drobac starting with Brantford. I can live with that while MacK is out. It is actually similar numbers to Donoso this season too.

If Ottawa can beat Brantford int he two games they play against them, win the game in hand and win one more game than Brantford over the remaining schedule, they pass them. If they can beat Oshawa the two games left and simply win the same number of games as them the rest of the way, they finish ahead of them. So, destiny is directly in their hands. They don’t need help.
 
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OMG67 said:
Goaltending for the 67’s is a question mark BUT, I am just guessing here… If MacK were likely out long term, they’d need to use Nelson. I am not sure they can use Saari unless there is another injury. I don’t believe he can start a game or come in relief of a poor performance. The only reason to not bring up Nelson would be simply because MacK isn’t’ likely out long and Michelone can carry the starting load int he short term without any relief required. They have a three game week, followed by a two game week, followed by a four game week (including Family Day game). That is a pretty heavy load. You gotta think Nelson would need to come up at some point in that mess. With the games on the road this weekend, I would be surprised if Saari is the backup. I have a feeling that we will see Nelson start Saturday in Flint.

If MacK is out long term, that will likely be the dagger. That said, Michelone has won all four of his games for Ottawa. 3.17 and .888 isn’t great but it isn’t horrible either. That would put him on par with Drobac starting with Brantford. I can live with that while MacK is out. It is actually similar numbers to Donoso this season too.

If Ottawa can beat Brantford int he two games they play against them, win the game in hand and win one more game than Brantford over the remaining schedule, they pass them. If they can beat Oshawa the two games left and simply win the same number of games as them the rest of the way, they finish ahead of them. So, destiny is directly in their hands. They don’t need help.
Click to expand...
Hopefully the card situation will allow for Nelson to be added on an A Card, there was really no reason for him not to have been with the team last weekend.

Michelone has played acceptable for this team to win a fare share of games, they will want to have Mack back and fully healthy for playoffs. I wouldn't get too hung up on catching Brantford in the standings, they'd need to play 0.700PCT hockey to do that in my estimation. Most important at this stage is for the team to continue to develop chemistry with the new players and fine tune things for the playoffs.
 
PuckStop75 said:
Hopefully the card situation will allow for Nelson to be added on an A Card, there was really no reason for him not to have been with the team last weekend.

Michelone has played acceptable for this team to win a fare share of games, they will want to have Mack back and fully healthy for playoffs. I wouldn't get too hung up on catching Brantford in the standings, they'd need to play 0.700PCT hockey to do that in my estimation. Most important at this stage is for the team to continue to develop chemistry with the new players and fine tune things for the playoffs.
Click to expand...

Brantford isn’t ahead by a wide margin. It is 6 points and we hold a game in hand. You don’t need .700 hockey to make that up. That would assume that Brantford will stay at an above .600 clip. It is possible but it is not like they have an easy schedule.

Tough Divisional games:
Oshawa x2
Ottawa x2

Tough Central Games:
Sudbury
North Bay x2

Tough Western Conference games:
Saginaw x2
Guelph

That is ten games against the tougher competition. Since Dec 1, they’ve played to a 3-3-2 record against what we would consider the top 8 teams in the league. They’ve played 21 games over that stretch so they are coming off a relatively easy portion of their schedule.

Their next four games will say a lot. They have Sudbury and North Bay at home and then Oshawa and Guelph on the road. That is a tough four game stretch. If they are successful and come out of that with 6 of 8 points, I think it will be tough for Ottawa to reel them in. But, if they start to falter a bit, which is what I think will happen, they will prove beatable and can be reeled in.
 
HockeyPops said:
Ottawa should have lots of A cards remaining, probably at least 3 left.
Click to expand...

3 is accurate. The younger rookies would all be by default on development cards and wouldn’t revert to “A” cards until they play 10 games. Rookies aren’t assigned “A” cards, they qualify for them when they reach their 10 game total. Once they have their “A” card, they cannot revert back to development cards in following years.

Where this may become a factor is next year. If they don’t anticipate using Nelson next year in a backup role, they may be hesitant giving him his 10 games this year. If they do give him his 10 games then if he comes in as an injury replacement and he plays, he would automatically get a card, even if it is just one game. If he remains on a development card and plays a couple games next year in a pinch, he remains on the development card.

This may be a card management situation that I did not consider. Maybe he backs up Michelone this weekend and then they revert back to Saari the following weekend when it is just two games.
 
OMG67 said:
Brantford isn’t ahead by a wide margin. It is 6 points and we hold a game in hand. You don’t need .700 hockey to make that up. That would assume that Brantford will stay at an above .600 clip. It is possible but it is not like they have an easy schedule.

Tough Divisional games:
Oshawa x2
Ottawa x2

Tough Central Games:
Sudbury
North Bay x2

Tough Western Conference games:
Saginaw x2
Guelph

That is ten games against the tougher competition. Since Dec 1, they’ve played to a 3-3-2 record against what we would consider the top 8 teams in the league. They’ve played 21 games over that stretch so they are coming off a relatively easy portion of their schedule.

Their next four games will say a lot. They have Sudbury and North Bay at home and then Oshawa and Guelph on the road. That is a tough four game stretch. If they are successful and come out of that with 6 of 8 points, I think it will be tough for Ottawa to reel them in. But, if they start to falter a bit, which is what I think will happen, they will prove beatable and can be reeled in.
Click to expand...
I'm not suggesting Brantford isn't beatable, I don't think there is a team in the east who I would even consider a favorite at this point once playoffs roll around. 0.700 hockey would get them to 84 pts which would be the lowest division winner in a long time (I can't even find a year when that happened). Brantford and Oshawa have been playing right around that level for the last month, so in order to reel them in there is already an expectation that their level of play is going to fall off.

Tough competition or not, these teams (incl. Ottawa) are not dominating in any way and they are going to lose games to middle pack teams on both sides.
 
OMG67 said:
3 is accurate. The younger rookies would all be by default on development cards and wouldn’t revert to “A” cards until they play 10 games. Rookies aren’t assigned “A” cards, they qualify for them when they reach their 10 game total. Once they have their “A” card, they cannot revert back to development cards in following years.

Where this may become a factor is next year. If they don’t anticipate using Nelson next year in a backup role, they may be hesitant giving him his 10 games this year. If they do give him his 10 games then if he comes in as an injury replacement and he plays, he would automatically get a card, even if it is just one game. If he remains on a development card and plays a couple games next year in a pinch, he remains on the development card.

This may be a card management situation that I did not consider. Maybe he backs up Michelone this weekend and then they revert back to Saari the following weekend when it is just two games.
Click to expand...
See whether he travels with the team this weekend, but the hold-up may be more red tape relating to his Jr.A card. Based on my understanding of the system it would require a transfer and exception to card him in the OHL and play games in conflict with Navan's schedule.
 
HockeyPops said:
Backup goalies don't count towards games played, only counts if they get game time.
Click to expand...
I understand that. That is why I am saying him getting into 10 games this year eliminates the possibility of starting on a development card next year.
 
PuckStop75 said:
See whether he travels with the team this weekend, but the hold-up may be more red tape relating to his Jr.A card. Based on my understanding of the system it would require a transfer and exception to card him in the OHL and play games in conflict with Navan's schedule.
Click to expand...

Navan has an OA goalie that started for Rockland last year and has similar stats to Nelson this year so it is not like they’d be leaving them high and dry. I cannot see him being blocked, especially considering he is a 16 year old.

The reality is they cannot start Saari. He’s essentially a BUG. That potentially presents a problem.
 
I don't believe it is about blocking a player, its not between the teams, the OHF/HC has specific rules about the way players are carded, transfers and obligations to the team they are carded with versus the affiliate team, even when players can potential play up a level.

We like to think of the OHL as pro but in many ways it still operates like minor hockey in the way it interacts with the levels above and below it. Its no different than telling a player that once they get sent down to the OHL from the NHL that they can't go back until the season is over.
 
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PuckStop75 said:
I don't believe it is about blocking a player, its not between the teams, the OHF/HC has specific rules about the way players are carded, transfers and obligations to the team they are carded with versus the affiliate team, even when players can potential play up a level.

We like to think of the OHL as pro but in many ways it still operates like minor hockey in the way it interacts with the levels above and below it. Its no different than telling a player that once they get sent down to the OHL from the NHL that they can't go back until the season is over.
Click to expand...

All rookies are required to be assigned affiliate cards until they reach ten games where they then revert automatically to an “A” card. So, this is not an issue with respect to the carding process.

The issue may be related to when you can call up an affiliate player and what are the accepted circumstance for doing it. The main two windows are during the Christmas holiday period and post-affiliate teams season. The other is injury on an emergency basis.

In this case, for Nelson, he is the 3rd signed goalie. We have an injured goalie. That presents an emergency situation where the team would have the right to recall the goalie. Ottawa chose to play Michelone 3 games over 4 days. No biggie. They had Saari there as a BUG in case of injury. However, they cannot start him. So, this weekend presents a quandary. Do they go West with Michelone and Saari knowing Saari cannot play unless there is an injury on when he can relive the injured player for that game only? If Michelone were to go down with injury on Friday night, Nelson would need to get there for Saturday. I doubt they would do that. I think they will call him up for this weekend road trip. He may get one start.
 
OMG67 said:
Goaltending for the 67’s is a question mark BUT, I am just guessing here… If MacK were likely out long term, they’d need to use Nelson. I am not sure they can use Saari unless there is another injury. I don’t believe he can start a game or come in relief of a poor performance. The only reason to not bring up Nelson would be simply because MacK isn’t’ likely out long and Michelone can carry the starting load int he short term without any relief required. They have a three game week, followed by a two game week, followed by a four game week (including Family Day game). That is a pretty heavy load. You gotta think Nelson would need to come up at some point in that mess. With the games on the road this weekend, I would be surprised if Saari is the backup. I have a feeling that we will see Nelson start Saturday in Flint.

If MacK is out long term, that will likely be the dagger. That said, Michelone has won all four of his games for Ottawa. 3.17 and .888 isn’t great but it isn’t horrible either. That would put him on par with Drobac starting with Brantford. I can live with that while MacK is out. It is actually similar numbers to Donoso this season too.

If Ottawa can beat Brantford int he two games they play against them, win the game in hand and win one more game than Brantford over the remaining schedule, they pass them. If they can beat Oshawa the two games left and simply win the same number of games as them the rest of the way, they finish ahead of them. So, destiny is directly in their hands. They don’t need help.
Click to expand...
The problem with your thoughts are

IF

the other teams involved will have the same story just the results reversed lol

But I agree

My question, though, is why is the top spot so important. Let's face it: home ice has not had a good history, and I would rather bring a fresh, healthy MAck in to start the playoffs than a tired, sore one. Same with all the other players.
I think we would be better served just working on systems and keeping everyone healthy.
 
three dog night said:
Or healthy so far a split with Ottawa four losses to Brantford all by tree goals or less haven’t played Oshawa yet.
Click to expand...
But again it is going to depend on how hungry the other team is and how hungry the Dogs are. I am not doubting your statement just stating that this is the same team that got hammered by Kingston 10-0 and lost 6-4 in Ottawa.

I would love to see them be competitive and make this hard for all teams in the division. It makes for a better division.
 
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beastintheeast said:
The problem with your thoughts are

IF

the other teams involved will have the same story just the results reversed lol

But I agree

My question, though, is why is the top spot so important. Let's face it: home ice has not had a good history, and I would rather bring a fresh, healthy MAck in to start the playoffs than a tired, sore one. Same with all the other players.
I think we would be better served just working on systems and keeping everyone healthy.
Click to expand...

Because I have $100 on it and it is all about me!
 
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