I purposely wanted to wait to see all the replies regarding “all in” before I responded.
I have a philosophy regarding how a team should operate at all times with zero deviation.
1> 1st round picks need to be assessed through Christmas of their first year. The assessment needs to be based on when the franchise feels the player is going to become impactful. If the franchise feels the player will be impactful as a 17 year old, you don’t trade that player under any circumstances. Arguably you get three years of “impact” from that type of player. IF a player is deemed impactful starting at 18 then you need to assess whether the player youare getting is worth the services of an impact player for two years. If the player is deemed only impactful for likely one season at 19 and maybe an OA year then there is ZERO reason not to include the player in a trade when you feel it is necessary. So, if we look at the players currently on the roster drafted int he 1st round of the OHL Draft, which ones fit in which category...
Tolnai - I think we were all somewhat disappointed with Tolnai as a rookie. Generally speaking, most of us thought it was likley to take him three development years to become impactful so he would be an easy trade piece.
Matier - As a D-Man with a physical edge, he would be the guy you’d expect to be impactful as an 18 year old BUT, his impact would have a higher ceiling. I think we all knew Matier was going to be a force with his size and skating. Offence would likely come with that as it does in Junior. So he’d be available but only for an exceptional player
Barlas - He was a bust as a rookie. He may turn out to be ok at some point. I think we all agree that if it were last year and we were in the position we are now in, no one would question trading him. I doubt anyone would question it now either. No disrespect meant to Barlas. He has improved but it is unlikely he is an impact player until at least his 4th year.
Mews - Mews will be an impact player next season as a 17 year old. He is off the table no matter what. Period.
Marrelli - I see the same things in Marrelli as Matier. I don’t think he will end up at 6’4” but he’s going to be thick and have a similar impact. So, like MAtier, if you trade him now, it needs to be a significantly impactful player.
***This is how I assess the use of 16 y/o 1st rounders. Based on this, I would not use a 1st rounder on any player in the OHL currently. I don’t think the players available are near impactful enough to toss away that type of projected talent.
2> A GM needs to be consistent. The GM cannot give in drooling all over players. If he does he sets a precedent and that will follow the GM forever and will hurt the team year after year in perpetuity. Boyd needs to approach the market advertising the players and picks he is willing to part with to allow opposing teams scouts to do their homework. If the players are deemed to have value, the opposing teams will show interest. IF they don’t have value, the oppowing teams will not have interest and communications stop. GM’s CANNOT UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES get caught up in a bidding war. You cannot have your offer played off on another team. Any time your offer is presented to another team to beat, you rescind your offer immediately. GM’s will discuss the parameters of a deal. They will talk names etc but no “OFFER” is provided. It is a feeling out process. Either you are on the same page or you aren’t. IF you are on the same page then you can get deeper but at that point it is understood that you two are working together for a deal and no other team is involved. The “biding war” is ONLY during the feeling out stage. Once the selling team approaches the most likely buyer candidate, talks with other teams break off. THAT is how to negotiate for these types of deals otherwise youa re negotiating agaisnt yourself. You are simply upping the offers from other teams and doing your team a disservice. GM’s that negotiate by presenting an offer as a feeler get burnt all the time or offer too much. I remember one year Kilrea was working on a deal for Steve Downey in Windsor. Windsor took his offer and used it to get a better deal and Kilrea immediately reminded the offer and cut off discussions entirely leaving Windsor in the lurch. That needs to be done 100% of the time If it happens.
3> As eluded to above, the 67’s in this example need to make it known which players they are willing to part with and which players are off the table no matter what. It takes a lot of time and energy to complete proper due diligence. Saying they are not willing to move Frankie MArrelli and then realizing if they don’t they won’t get the player is a too bad, so sad situation. Either he is or isn’t available. Teams need to properly assess and consider. It can be the last day of the deadline and the 67’s are still talking and the opposing team is still asking for Marrelli. The opposing team needs to know the parameters potentially available form Ottawa. If the team can get a far better offer from another team for whatever reason then they will do it. The 67’s need to live with their decisions on strategy. They cannot shift their strategy. They will be taken advantage of.
My opinion on what Ottawa should do:
1> Make a list of players available. I would have Quick, Dever, Ewles, Barlas, Laforme, Gerroir, Sirman and Smyth available.
2> I would make a list of players the team is targeting. Clearly they have an OA spot open and a lack of depth at Centre so it makes sense to acquire a Centre, whether it be an OA or not. Preferably, if I am acquiring two forwards, I acquire two centres and use one on the wing.
3> I decide how many picks in each round I need to retain in hand no matter what. Maybe I say between 2023 and 2026, I want two picks in each round leaving me void of half of my picks. If that’s the case, the 67s then have 5 2nds and 8 3rds available plus some 4ths and 5ths.
4> I survey the market to see what we’d likely be able to work out and which ones are a waste of time.
Right now, if the rumours are true that Oshawa is hell bent on an ‘06 for Harrison, then so be it. Let them know what you’d be willing to do in broad strokes and tell them to come back if they shift their position. If Saginaw wants an ‘06 for Mintyukov then so be it. Do the same as you would with Oshawa. But, figure out what you are likely able to do and wait as long as possible before you pull the trigger if you have other names ahead of those players. If you survey the league and it doesn’t look like anyone would be willing to trade an ‘06 for Harrison and he’s the #1 guy on your list, figure out what your internal deadline is and present that deadline to Oshawa so you don’t run out of time on others etc.
This is typically how these sorts of processes work. It is typically a long process of preparation followed by a waiting game and some would say a game of chicken. But you need to be disciplined.
You can never “go all in.” That suggests you will make whatever deals necessary and the future matters for nothing. I think it is irresponsible. The 67’s have been disciplined and have accumulated expendable assets specifically so they DON’T HAVE TO go all in. We may disagree with the 67’s management assessment of what they team needs but we shouldn’t disagree with their disciplined approach. A consistent approach is necessary even if it means they miss out on a player they really wanted.