You would be assuming HB is a true 22nd pick. In this scenario, he would be more like a 12th pick that was passed over as unsignable.
If HB does go defected, I highly doubt Ottawa picked him with the primary intention of signing him. That points to a potential pre-draft deal.
Caden Kelly is an outstanding 17 year old prospect. It doesn’t show in his stat line because he played 3 shifts per game when the roster was healthy. He compiled points when he played top 9 when they were struggling with injury for a four week stretch. There was no outstanding 17 year old in the Beck deal.
Kitchener would be getting a reasonably high rated D-Man 16 year old going into the draft plus a highly rated 17 year old poised to make his mark this season. That two punch package is similar enough to the Beck deal IMO.
On top of that, sometimes a bird in hand is better. There is no guarantee Kitchener would get a 1st for Rehkopf. We don’t know how many teams are buying and what other options are available. This is a first rounder in hand right now. There is something to be said about mitigating risk.
So if Ottawa were to trade HB, Kelly and a couple 3rds, that is a solid deal and definitely not dissimilar to Beck when you factor in the value of Kelly vs the picks. To me, Kelly is worth somewhere in the range of a 2nd, 3rd and 4th depending on the year of the picks.
If it were just picks changing hands? That’s sort of tough. I can’t see it making sense because Ottawa doesn’t have an abundance of picks. I think it needs to include the viable young winger to make it work. In that regard, I think you are pretty accurate.
Not disputing the calibre player that you say Kelly is, but the Owen Beck return was Van Volson (4th overall in ‘22), DeZoete (2nd round ‘21), 2x2nds, 3rd, 4th.
I’d be willing to maybe accept that HB / Kelly and Van Volson / DeZoete are saw offs. But that may be a reach. But the remainder of the deal would have the Beck picks coming Kitchener’s way.
If we agree that HB equals the Aiden Castle return. And once January rolls around, the Rehkopf return mirrors the Beck return, once both parts of a possible two part deal is complete, it should go like this:
To Kitchener:
HB, Kelly, 2x2nds, 3rd, 4th.
To Ottawa:
Rehkopf, 2nd, 3rd, 2x4ths.
But:
A) I think Kitchener can do better than that, and,
B) that’s not close to what’s being suggested in your post. You don’t have any 2nds coming back to Kitchener.
On the other hand, suppose the Rangers complete a stand alone deal for HB at Castle return. (2nd, 3rd, 4th, 4th). Then, at the deadline, perhaps they do an Owen Beck type deal with, hypothetically, Sudbury. That would be 10th overall Caden Taylor, ‘21 2nd rounder K.Walton, and the 2x2nds, 3rd, 4th.
Rangers would be a lot farther ahead IMO. They’d have HB and Taylor along with 06 2nd rounder Walton + picks. Ottawa could then address their need at center with the picks gained from the HB deal.
All I’m saying is that it’s way too early to handcuff yourself into a Rehkopf deal.
The 67’s are against the wall with HB. If they don’t sign him, they have to move him to get the comp pick. Trade partners will know this. I’m not saying they’ll get lowballed. But Ottawa will have to deal him to a team he’ll report to to get the best return and I figure the best bets are likely Kitchener and Saginaw. Kitchener because he’s already said he’d love to play there and Saginaw because it’s close to home and there’s a chance brother Hunter gets dealt there.
I guess it’s safe to assume we’re agreeing to disagree on this? Lol!