Confirmed Signing with Link: [OTT] G Linus Ullmark signs extension with the Ottawa Senators (4 years, $8.25M AAV)

[tmg]

Couldnt wait until the 20 game mark to see if theres a hope in hell of making the post season?

The goalie market resets every time a major signing occurs. Swayman was a reset. Hell, only what, minutes after this, Daccord reset the market for the debatably mid tier. Shesterkin is soon to reset the upper end.

Things aren’t static enough for the assumption that the playing field won’t be different in two months. If Shesty gets 12.5x4 by Halloween, Ullmark’s ask on a 4 likely goes up. Teams that are doing signings now are doing so because they have reason to believe now is better than later.


Also possible the agent said “no negotiating in mid season, he doesn’t want the distraction - if we don’t sign before game 1, we won’t talk contract again til after game 82”

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Coming in after Renne went out injured in '13-'14 and putting up a 20–11–4 record. What a bum. Then putting up a 17-7-3 record and 2.09GAA in his final year with the Blues. No hope at all.

By contrast he never got below a 3.00GAA in Buffalo and had that dreadful 1-10-1 season in his final year there.

20-11-4 with mediocre sv% and GAA. His final year with the Blues was great in his small role yes, but not his first year. He wasn't a bum, but really didn't show much more than be a good backup if the team was strong defensively.

 

[NyQuil]

This is going to be a fun bump after one season, just like this signing was.

Confirmed Signing with Link: - [OTT] G Joonas Korpisalo signs with the Senators (5 years, $4M AAV)

forums.hfboards.com

Funny how Sens fans were pretty adamant how much they didn’t like it at the time.

Or do you actually read the posts when you bump the thread?

I didn’t like the Murray signing, I didn’t like the Korpisalo signing, the receipts are all there.

I think this one was a decent gamble.

 

[amnesiac]

Yea, I don't get these system goalie comments. People are aware Ullmark was great on the dogshit team in Buffalo right? He didn't just show up out of nowhere in Boston

"Very good" over 20 and 34 games in Buffalo. Sure, I wont argue that.

Does that sample size + 89 games in Boston merit $8M per? I dunno.

 

[JKG33]

"Very good" over 20 and 34 games in Buffalo. Sure, I wont argue that.

Does that sample size + 89 games in Boston merit $8M per? I dunno.

You're conveniently forgetting those 2 years in Buffalo were the covid shortened seasons.

And it was 130 games in Boston lmfao

 

[TeamRenzo]

there's actually quite a large gap between "sign before he plays a single game" and "let him go to UFA"

You're saying that like there isn't any experience or history to draw from...he's 247 games in NHL and a career SV% 919.

 

[Ghost of Murph]

Good deal for both parties. Ullmark was really good in Buffalo given the roster, then obviously great with Boston. 4 years is a perfect length for an established goalie at his age, so props to the Sens for locking up a Vezina level goalie to coincide with the rise of the rest of the roster.

Brutal division to be in for those too 3 spots, however Ottawa will definitely be more competitive for a WC spot over the next 4 seasons.

 

[MoneyManny]

That's a nice team-friendly contract and Ullmark secures the Sens starting goalie position.

I'm not sure what's not to like here, the Sens could of done a lot worse than this.

 

[albator71]

I'm so freaking excited and happy that Linus has signed long term with us. Now we have a solid #1 goaltender for the next 5 seasons. This is a new beginning for the Ottawa Senators let's freaking go!!!

 

[JKG33]

Brutal division to be in for those too 3 spots, however Ottawa will definitely be more competitive for a WC spot over the next 4 seasons.

This is true. Florida and Boston are wagons, and Toronto's guys get paid based on the regular season only. Those 3 spots are pretty much a lock but even Tampa child steal one.

Luckily for Ottawa/Detroit and whichever of Tampa/Toronto, the metro is comparatively extremely week so both wild cards are up for grabs

 

[albator71]

He's pretty clearly not a systems goalie, he did excellent on some horrible Buffalo teams

Thank You and I agree with you, I never imagine agreeing with a Leaf fan one day but here we are

 

[PatrickMcC]

@amnesiac xGSA accounts for team defense and systems. Not a perfect stat, but they’ve found ways to incorporate team defense/systems.

 

[swiftwin]

Another low key factor in signing him now, is to reduce the off-ice distractions. Many players were unhappy with the off-ice distractions last season.

This year, management went out of their way to settle everything earlier in the summer. Cychrun was traded and Pinto signed, along with Perron and Amadio in the first week of July. The team was set in stone and ready to go in July.

By also inking Ullmark now, there won't be any distractions about trading Ullmark at the deadline if the team is on the bubble.

There are no more excuses.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Funny how Sens fans were pretty adamant how much they didn’t like it at the time.

Or do you actually read the posts when you bump the thread?

I didn’t like the Murray signing, I didn’t like the Korpisalo signing, the receipts are all there.

I think this one was a decent gamble.

It's more of a thread bump to remember how costly of a mistake it was to go all-in on a goalie with one decent season. Ullmark had a Vezina caliber season then had a massive drop off statistically.

Ullmark is akin to Patrick Lalime, Jim Carey, Jose Theodore. etc. Decent goalie who is getting overpaid for one spectacular season two years ago.

 

[amnesiac]

You're conveniently forgetting those 2 years in Buffalo were the covid shortened seasons.

And it was 130 games in Boston lmfao

130 my bad

How do” COVID years” change anything about the sample size ? 54 games is 54 games

 

[I Hate Philadelphia]

130 my bad

How do” COVID years” change anything about the sample size ?

Because Ullmark never started more than 37 games in a season for Buffalo. Never more than 49 in Boston. He's a tandem goalie and now he's being paid like a superstar #1.

 

[JKG33]

130 my bad

How do” COVID years” change anything about the sample size ?

He was still playing a starter's (or at least 1B) percentage of games in those two seasons

Because Ullmark never started more than 37 games in a season for Buffalo. Never more than 49 in Boston. He's a tandem goalie and now he's being paid like a superstar #1.

Tandem goalies don't win Vezinas

 

[Golden_Jet]

lets talk in a few months here.

Lol, you’ll be back in 4-5 posts

 

[DueDiligence]

if you bother to read all my posts there nothing childish about them. I dont ridicule anyone for liking the Sens, Im not responding with "LOL youre idiot"...... Im giving my opinion and arguments, posting data, showing past examples....

always the same people who get offended here.

You need to get over it. You made your point after 2 or 3 posts. Why in hell do you need to say the same thing 20 more times?

 

[amnesiac]

He was still playing a starter's (or at least 1B) percentage of games in those two seasons

Sample sizes are based a quantities not percentages

 

[NyQuil]

It's more of a thread bump to remember how costly of a mistake it was to go all-in on a goalie with one decent season. Ullmark had a Vezina caliber season then had a massive drop off statistically.

Ullmark is akin to Patrick Lalime, Jim Carey, Jose Theodore. etc. Decent goalie who is getting overpaid for one spectacular season two years ago.

With Ottawa’s recent record of non-competitiveness and general lack of attractiveness as a Canadian small market, they were always going to pay a premium for a decent goalie.

Other markets likely would have been in a better position to negotiate, but here we are.

Clearly the Sens brass were willing to pay for a shorter term than a goalie would typically be aiming for in Ulmark’s position.

 

[DueDiligence]

Lol, you’ll be back in 4-5 posts

or less!

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

The Markstrom contract is the closest comparable. It would be about 4 years at 6.75M under a 92M cap. If the cap next year goes up closer to 100M, if would be closer to 7.35M.

So you can see how the Senators did pay a premium, but it's likely around 1M or so. It's also not a completely clear comparable because we are very obviously experiencing a market adjustment because of the perceived jump the cap is expected to take over the next few seasons.

 

[JKG33]

Sample sizes are based a quantities not percentages

It's pretty disingenuous to point to a small sample size when the entire league lost 2 half seasons.. coincidentally when he just took over as a starter.

Anyway, carry on with your bad faith argument. I've said my piece

 

[Golden_Jet]

I swear I’ve had better conversations with kids.

Takes one to know one I guess.
I’ll give you the win though for most posts in this thread