I am shocked at the value Norris had with his massive contract and injury concerns. Apparently, the Sabres could have gotten picks for Cozens, and the Predators were in on Norris last night for Ryan O'Reilly.
This is good work by Staios. I think that the Sabres get the better player in the deal, but the liability of the Norris contract combined with his injuries is way too high for a small-market Canadian team. We know that the cap is going to shoot up, and the Canadian dollar is weak. Norris makes 9.5M in real dollars for the next few seasons. The Senators simply cannot afford the risk of him coming in and out of the lineup through injuries. Over the last 3 season, Norris has missed nearly half the games due to injury - and he already missed about 1 in 6 games this season.
The Senators are asset poor because Dorion could not take advantage of rebuilding in what was perhaps the greatest time ever to accrue assets by taking bad contracts because of Melnyk's budget. Not to mention, the entire mandate the team had was to push to "win now" because the season ticket base was eroding, and then the turd needed to be polished to trick a mark into buying the team. So you had Dorion trying to generate excitement in the fanbase by burning assets for players like Debrincat and Chychrun, and to make it worse they were terrible fits. Getting a 2026 2nd is massive for the Senators because it either gives them another top prospect, or it makes it a bit more tolerable to move a 2nd or a 3rd for an additional rental this TDL.
The Senators are often taken advantage of by bigger and tougher teams. See the Hartman incident. This results in Brady feeling that he has to do the fighting, which they don't like. That's why Gilbert is in the trade. Gilbert is more of a role playing who is only going to play a few minutes a night, which seems like it would be a problem on defense, but if you look at how Green uses the current lineup, Kleven and Mantinpalo don't play much more than Gilberg. He doesn't seem to trust them. So I can't see it being that much of a detriment to basically play with 5 NHL defenseman, and one enforcer who skates for 10 minutes and hits+fights.
If the Sabres could have gotten picks for Cozens, they made a mistake. This is a HUGE gamble for them with the injury history of Norris. He has now had three shoulder injuries since College, and he has never been tested in heavier playoff hockey. It wouldn't surprise me if part of doing this trade now was a fear over Norris not being able to handle the playoff type of game. Look at how many players were hurt coming out of the 4 Nations Faceoff. Top stakes playoff style hockey is completely different than regular season hockey.
JBD is a throw-in who was unlikely to be qualified by Ottawa. He may have been claimed on waivers had they sent him down. I'm sure he was in the deal mostly for depth. As a right handed D, if he can hold on in the NHL until the next expansion, he might be a guy who quietly spends years in the league as a #6-7 type D, but don't let his status as a former first rounder fool you, he doesn't have a lot of value.
Lastly, I think that the Senators aren't happy with the culture around the team and the core. Which isn't a shot at Norris or any one individual player. Staios worked hard this offseason to move out as many players as possible and bring in different players, particularly veterans or players who have played in the playoffs before. Cozens doesn't fit that bill, and he also comes from a team that has similar circumstances to Ottawa over the last 5 or so years - but I think it's more the change in personnel and the possible storming effect it can have on the group that leads to them being better in the long run.