Confirmed Trade: [OTT/BOS] Linus Ullmark for Mark Kastelic, Joonas Korpisalo (25% retained), 2024 BOS 1st round pick

[bb_fan]

This will be the next trade to prove why the goaltending position is a joke and total crap shoot and why you should never invest big money or spend valuable assets for one. (Not saying Ottawa did in this case, it's a good, low-risk deal for them).

Ullmark was a scrub on Buffalo, then a Vezina winner, then couldn't even hold his starting job one season after the Vezina. There's a reason why Boston has had three different Vezina winners in the past 15 years. (And who would be surprised if Swayman makes it 4)?

Goalies are a product of their team and their system. They are giant, inflated, Michelin men who drop to the ice and let pucks hit them. If their team doesn't keep chances to the outside, block shots, and limit odd-mans, they are toast. I'm betting on 2.87 gaa and .900 sv% for Ullmark behind the Sens next year while Korpisalo puts up Vezina numbers in 25ish starts.

Teams make goalies, goalies don't make teams.

Amazing that that's what we kept hearing when boston had Chara and aot of good pieces around him, Bergeron (top defensive forward) and played a defense first style.


Fast forward to Macavoy and some scrubs, no Bergeron and a different style of play and Ulmark and Swayman are still both products of the system...

 

[Patdud]

He can’t actually sign an extension until July 1.

Though the indication seems to be he hasn’t even made a verbal/handshake agreement that he will. Which is fine. As noted, if this is a one year rental this is fine. If this is a 3/4 year and flipped at deadline it’s fine. If some circumstances make him entirely unable to play, that’s even fine. That’ll mean the Sens just gave a late 1st and a fourth liner to get out of 3/4 of Korpisalo’s contract, which is the big win itself.

Ullmark extending would be gravy. But the deal is a winner even if he doesn’t.

He can sign the extension, the team just cant file it.

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

Ottawa could keep the amount of shots and slot chances down but some of the chances they gave up were atrocious junior style breakdowns that would leave the scorer with an open net tap in and the goalie with no chance.

How does xga account for that?

 

[Shane Diesel]

How does xga account for that?

Inside the Stats: Expected Goals | Inside The Rink

Expected goals are one of the most useful analytics concepts. They are also the most heavily criticized – some of which is warranted, and some not so much. One thing that is certain is expected goals has ballooned in popularity in recent years. For those who haven’t heard of it or have heard of...

insidetherink.com

Expected goals (xG) is a model-based metric used to isolate the evaluation of play-driving and chance-creation/suppression ability from things a player cannot control such as bounces, quality of goaltender, etc. The models make use of the public data tracked by the NHL. The NHL tracks every unblocked shot attempt (Fenwick) and collects over 100 pieces of information per unblocked shot attempt (shooter, location on ice, type of shot, etc.).

 

[Hockeyholic]

Is Korpisalo going to share the starting job with Swayman.

Or just purely a backup?

 

[HuskyBruinPride]

Is Korpisalo going to share the starting job with Swayman.

Or just purely a backup?

He's gotta be purely backup. No way they split 50-50. Hooray to 4 years of arguably the worst goalie in the league at $3M per wooooo.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Korpisalo will clearly be the backup to Swayman, it's not going to be a platoon like with Ullmark. Korpisalo's career is that of a guy that is a backup with basically 3 starter caliber seasons out of 9, 1 of which was his rookie season 9 years ago. Almost every year his tandem peer was ~.020 higher save % behind the same team. 3 of the last 4 seasons are objectively poor statistically. He's not going to magically turn in to a Vezina winner, but an uptick in performance or another outlier season is not out of the question. The red flags were smeared all over his resume before Ottawa signed him after that outlier season. They even justified it with all the talk of hip surgeries having fixed him and explaining the significantly better performance from years prior. Then last year happened. Good riddance from this Ottawa fan.

 

[Neutrinos]

If I were Ottawa, I'd have given up those assets just to get Korpisalo off the books

The fact that they were able to get Ullmark for at least the '25 season as part of the deal seems like a huge win for the Sens

 

[JAK]

This, is an odd trade.

 

[WATTAGE4451]

This thread is proof that the majority of "hockey fans" actually have no clue and will hold conviction in things that are completely the opposite of all stats and evidence.

 

[SpezDispenser]

If I were Ottawa, I'd have given up those assets just to get Korpisalo off the books

The fact that they were able to get Ullmark for at least the '25 season as part of the deal seems like a huge win for the Sens

Sshhhh or you'll wake the don godfather from his nap.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

This thread is proof that the majority of "hockey fans" actually have no clue and will hold conviction in things that are completely the opposite of all stats and evidence.

Nobody ever really builds an argument for Korpisalo turning it around. They just say the words and quote Ottawa being a goalie graveyard as evidence even though they've mostly brought in scrubs and damaged goods.

Staios said upgrading goaltending was the top priority, so I'm glad he used common sense and didn't build his team on a hope and a prayer instead.

From a Boston perspective I can see being upset, but they have their starter anyways, and Korpisalo should theoretically be able to buck up as a clear backup.

 

[TheNumber4]

Ullmark is a product of his environment, that is Bostons defensive system. I don’t think he’ll be near the same goalie in Ottawa. But that’s really not a bad price. Overall a good move for the Sens.

 

[CallSaul]

Ullmark is a product of his environment, that is Bostons defensive system. I don’t think he’ll be near the same goalie in Ottawa. But that’s really not a bad price. Overall a good move for the Sens.

Did you know that Boston gave up more high-danger scoring chances than Ottawa did at 5v5 last year?

 

[SPV]

Looks like still enough cap space to fit three 7 million dollar players and one 1 million dollar player Give it take a little bit. That should be able to fill out the roster nicely.

I’m thinking the front office is a little concerned with putting a full load on Sway. He’s never played more than 44 games. And Bussi is really unproven. Now we have a guy that can play 25-30 games and hopefully win at least 50%.

 

[TheNumber4]

Did you know that Boston gave up more high-danger scoring chances than Ottawa did at 5v5 last year?

Interesting. I did not. But I’m not fully bought into that high dangers tracking is all that accurate. But it’s something to be hopeful about as a Sens fan.

 

[CallSaul]

Interesting. I did not. But I’m not fully bought into that high dangers tracking is all that accurate. But it’s something to be hopeful about as a Sens fan.

Even if you look at total scoring chances against, Ottawa and Boston were remarkably similar.

Ottawa: 1847 scoring chances against (16th), 741 high-danger chances against (18th)
Boston: 1809 scoring chances against (12th), 756 high-danger chances against (21st)

The difference between the teams was that Boston had the 3rd best goaltending in the NHL (behind Florida and Winnipeg) while Ottawa had the 3rd worst (ahead of only San Jose and Philadelphia).

They also got no offense from their bottom 6 players... but that's a different issue.

 

[TheNumber4]

Even if you look at total scoring chances against, Ottawa and Boston were remarkably similar.

Ottawa: 1847 scoring chances against (16th), 741 high-danger chances against (18th)
Boston: 1809 scoring chances against (12th), 756 high-danger chances against (21st)

The difference between the teams was that Boston had the 3rd best goaltending in the NHL (behind Florida and Winnipeg) while Ottawa had the 3rd worst (ahead of only San Jose and Philadelphia).

They also got no offense from their bottom 6 players... but that's a different issue.

Sometimes shot location high rangers doesn’t fully account for the quality of team D being played. Like a shot may be high danger off a cross ice feed with an uncontested shooter, or just being in a high danger area with lots of defence contesting that shot. I think Boston, while giving up chances makes it predictable chances for the Goalie, makes their job easier.

That said, Ullmarks numbers in Buffalo were fine. So even if the D in front of him is not as solid as Boston’s, it’s still a good bet to make with Ullmark, and at not too hefty of a price.

 

[Zirakzigil]

Great trade for the Sens. Shocked he went there to be honest.

 

[CallSaul]

Sometimes shot location high rangers doesn’t fully account for the quality of team D being played. Like a shot may be high danger off a cross ice feed with an uncontested shooter, or just being in a high danger area with lots of defence contesting that shot. I think Boston, while giving up chances makes it predictable chances for the Goalie, makes their job easier.

That said, Ullmarks numbers in Buffalo were fine. So even if the D in front of him is not as solid as Boston’s, it’s still a good bet to make with Ullmark, and at not too hefty of a price.

Definitely, Boston as a whole played a more structured, predictable game. I'm just saying that Korpisalo wasn't a product of the system in Ottawa. He was a product of being absolutely terrible.

That doesn't mean he won't put in a lot of work this summer with a goalie coach (and hopefully a psychologist) and become a serviceable backup in Boston. He could do that.

But Ottawa's defensive issues are a bit exaggerated, so I don't think Ullmark is in for that rough a ride.

 

[TheNumber4]

Definitely, Boston as a whole played a more structured, predictable game. I'm just saying that Korpisalo wasn't a product of the system in Ottawa. He was a product of being absolutely terrible.

That doesn't mean he won't put in a lot of work this summer with a goalie coach (and hopefully a psychologist) and become a serviceable backup in Boston. He could do that.

But Ottawa's defensive issues are a bit exaggerated, so I don't think Ullmark is in for that rough a ride.

I actually never bought the hype on Korpi. I remember when LA traded for him to be their guy against the Oilers. I never thought he was worth the hype. And then he came to LA and just looked mid.

I'll take your word on Ottawa's defensive system. Maybe it's only by reputaiton that Boston's is that much better. Hopefully this is the trade that puts Ottawa back in the playoffs, would love to see that.

 

[burstnbloom]

Wow, dude...I was disappointed too, but please step back from the ledge.

Don't worry about me, son. Tell me where I was wrong.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I actually never bought the hype on Korpi. I remember when LA traded for him to be their guy against the Oilers. I never thought he was worth the hype. And then he came to LA and just looked mid.

I'll take your word on Ottawa's defensive system. Maybe it's only by reputaiton that Boston's is that much better. Hopefully this is the trade that puts Ottawa back in the playoffs, would love to see that.

There was hype on Korpi?

It seems like he's had a pretty ho hum, arguably poor career overall, statistically speaking, and was always significantly outperformed by whoever he was platooning with or backing up in Columbus. He had the season in LA, the rookie season, and one good one in between. The rest appear to be mid to poor even for a backup.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Definitely, Boston as a whole played a more structured, predictable game. I'm just saying that Korpisalo wasn't a product of the system in Ottawa. He was a product of being absolutely terrible.

That doesn't mean he won't put in a lot of work this summer with a goalie coach (and hopefully a psychologist) and become a serviceable backup in Boston. He could do that.

But Ottawa's defensive issues are a bit exaggerated, so I don't think Ullmark is in for that rough a ride.

another thing is if Ullmark just puts up a 91% save percentage and Forsberg like 90.5%, that'll already significantly improve our standings, even if we somehow score the exact same amount of goals as in 2023-2024. If Ullmark has a 91.5% save percentage or miraculously has a 2022-2023 performance, Ottawa is laughing in riches.

 

[Son of Donegal]

Don't worry about me, son. Tell me where I was wrong.

Well, for starters, the Peeke deal is fine even if it was viewed as an overpay at the time. He's a really solid defender and still has upside. The Bruins missed him against FLA.

Secondly, if Sweeney only had one dance partner and Ullmark isn't extending in OTT, there's not much else he can do but take what Staios is willing to pay, unless he walks away at which point fans would flame him anyway.

So, while I am disappointed, most if that has to do with having unrealistic expectations for a better package and having no control over the outcome. Atrocious is too strong a word, especially if there were only two possible outcomes and neither of their were ideal. Sweeney had the deal to LA and Ullmark snuffed it...so, dang, it;s not like he didn't put in the effort.

Lastly, they have the draft and then July 1 - so this story isn't over yet.