OT: Other Sports: Broncos, Nuggets, Rockies etc…Part VII

[5280]

McCarthy still tied for TDs with the rookie QBs at zero. None of them so far have been impressive.

Writing off a rookie QB after two games is insane. If he doesn’t continue to progress throughout the season then you can worry.

This is where I’m at. I think Fami makes some good points and Bo really hasn’t looked very good at all, but I also think it’s too early to write a rookie quarterback off.

 

[UnkleKraker]

I posted before that I saw a decent amount of Nix in PAC12 play. In college he was a very good scrambling/out of pocket player. He is creative and makes plays on the move. He is not a pocket passer. He is not a field stretcher. Can a system be built to his strengths in the NFL? You can look at prime era Russel Wilson and also Lamar Jackson for a partial answer. They both have at least average NFL arms though and Nix hasn't shown that before. Still, writing the kid off after 2 games is a bit silly.

 

[Pokecheque]

Sorry, I'm writing him off. Just my gut feeling. If I'm wrong, I'll be thrilled. But I don't think I will be.

But part of the reason I'm writing him off is also because his coach is doing more harm than good right now. I have little to no confidence that Nix will figure it out, I have ZERO confidence that Payton can build a successful scheme around him and I blame Payton more for that than Nix.

 

[famicommander]

Sorry, I'm writing him off. Just my gut feeling. If I'm wrong, I'll be thrilled. But I don't think I will be.

But part of the reason I'm writing him off is also because his coach is doing more harm than good right now. I have little to no confidence that Nix will figure it out, I have ZERO confidence that Payton can build a successful scheme around him and I blame Payton more for that than Nix.

Payton is completely delusional about Nix.

He has said his arm is "extremely impressive"
He has compared him to Brees and Mahomes
He has said he is great at throwing with pressure in his face, when he's off balance, when he's on the move

He also said, "We can't be the only ones to see what we're seeing."

Which is the most telling of all. Yes, Sean, you are the only one. Sean noticed how down everyone else in the NFL was on Nix as a prospect and convinced himself that he was simply smarter than everyone else.

This is like when Elway fell in love with Osweiler but worse.

The Steelers were laughing at the comically limited plays we were willing to call for Nix:

After Beating Broncos, Steelers Corners Were 'Laughing' About Denver's Small Playbook For Bo Nix

There’s a reason why the Pittsburgh Steelers have been so successful against rookie quarterbacks, earning another win last Sunday against Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos. Pittsburgh’s defense was dominant, stuffing the run and giving Nix little to work with. He finished the game completing well...

steelersdepot.com

Teams are daring us to beat them deep and laughing when we can't. Every defensive coach in the NFL knows exactly how to beat the Broncos.

 

[henchman21]

On writing Nix off... I think it really comes down to skill sets. I know hockey much more than I'll ever know football, but skill sets are incredibly important in all sports... arguably QB in the NFL tops the whole list. If a player doesn't have the requisite skills, no amount of hope, coaching, experience, time, etc will matter. I keep coming back to it... but the NewJost situations. It was abundantly clear before these players hit the NHL that they didn't have the requisite skill sets needed to succeed as 2nd line centers. They should have been written off from those roles very early, and moved into roles that were more fitting for their skills. If the Avs has moved Newhook to wing early, and developed him there, he might have had a better shot of sticking here. Jost was probably too far gone, but he would have had a better shot of carving out a lesser role if he wasn't forced into roles he was unfit for.

I've watched a lot of football, but I'm far from an expert. In my eyes, Nix does not look to have the skill set of a good NFL QB. He's a bad combination of a below average arm and gunslinger/risk taker. You can deal with one or the other, but both in the NFL rarely works out. To me, Nix looks like a guy who bounces around the NFL as a backup who gets 1-3 starts a year.

 

[henchman21]

Ohtani is insane

 

[ANewHope]

Or you point out how he was 193rd among college QBs last year in average depth of target. One third of his pass attempts were at or behind the line of scrimmage. He was a YAC merchant who thrived on targeting mismatches between his skill position guys and slow defenders.

His analytics were actually great when he did throw the ball deep at Oregon. I wanna say he had 26 TD's and 2 INT's when throwing 10+ yards despite how low his average depth of target was. That was one of the questions with Nix. You seen the insane throws like the one I posted earlier against UCLA but the volume was very low. Oregon had success airing it out but preferred the short passing game. Right now it's looking like there's a good reason for that. Nix has awful footwork, can't read a defence, and can't seem to make the big throws consistently.

Nix is likely going to bust. That's just the reality of it. The odds will always favor that. Especially when the QB is surrounded by trash. It's all a crapshoot. He can still improve his footwork, adjust to the speed of the game, amd improve reading the defence. Who Nix is right now won't be who he is by game 10. He could be better or things could get worse when teams get more tape.

 

[John Mandalorian]

Passing accuracy and judgment are more important than arm strength. The speed of the game in pre season is completely different than regular season.

Based on a lot of the comments in here, Jay Cutler was a no doubt HOFer.

 

[famicommander]

His analytics were actually great when he did throw the ball deep at Oregon. I wanna say he had 26 TD's and 2 INT's when throwing 10+ yards despite how low his average depth of target was. That was one of the questions with Nix. You seen the insane throws like the one I posted earlier against UCLA but the volume was very low. Oregon had success airing it out but preferred the short passing game. Right now it's looking like there's a good reason for that. Nix has awful footwork, can't read a defence, and can't seem to make the big throws consistently.

Nix is likely going to bust. That's just the reality of it. The odds will always favor that. Especially when the QB is surrounded by trash. It's all a crapshoot. He can still improve his footwork, adjust to the speed of the game, amd improve reading the defence. Who Nix is right now won't be who he is by game 10. He could be better or things could get worse when teams get more tape.

Yes, it's obvious that the good downfield passing numbers were due to
1. Extremely low sample size
and
2. Only taking shots when guys were ridiculously open

If he were truly an efficient downfield quarterback, the playcallers would put him in situations to push the ball downfield consistently. It makes absolutely zero sense to not do something you know you're good at. Vlatko Cancar shot 58% from the 3 point line one year for the Nuggets, but they didn't just have him go out there and launch 3s every possession and for very good reason.

Even the 49 yard trick play we converted was severely underthrown. If Nix hits that in stride it's a touchdown.

Passing accuracy and judgment are more important than arm strength. The speed of the game in pre season is completely different than regular season.

Based on a lot of the comments in here, Jay Cutler was a no doubt HOFer.

Literally nobody here has said arm strength is all you need. Not once.

But if you can't make all the throws on the field you have to be absolutely elite in every other area just to be effective. There is literally nothing that Bo Nix does at an elite level.

 

[John Mandalorian]

Yes, it's obvious that the good downfield passing numbers were due to
1. Extremely low sample size
and
2. Only taking shots when guys were ridiculously open

If he were truly an efficient downfield quarterback, the playcallers would put him in situations to push the ball downfield consistently. It makes absolutely zero sense to not do something you know you're good at. Vlatko Cancar shot 58% from the 3 point line one year for the Nuggets, but they didn't just have him go out there and launch 3s every possession and for very good reason.

Even the 49 yard trick play we converted was severely underthrown. If Nix hits that in stride it's a touchdown.

Literally nobody here has said arm strength is all you need. Not once.

But if you can't make all the throws on the field you have to be absolutely elite in every other area just to be effective. There is literally nothing that Bo Nix does at an elite level.

It’s cute that you think you’re making a point. Except, you’ve been so over the top emphasizing arm strength that you opened yourself up to Jay Cutler, Jeff George, and Dan McGwire references. There’s no going back now.

 

[henchman21]

Bo Nix would be thrilled to have Jay Cutler’s career.

 

[ANewHope]

Yes, it's obvious that the good downfield passing numbers were due to
1. Extremely low sample size
and
2. Only taking shots when guys were ridiculously open

If he were truly an efficient downfield quarterback, the playcallers would put him in situations to push the ball downfield consistently. It makes absolutely zero sense to not do something you know you're good at. Vlatko Cancar shot 58% from the 3 point line one year for the Nuggets, but they didn't just have him go out there and launch 3s every possession and for very good reason.

Even the 49 yard trick play we converted was severely underthrown. If Nix hits that in stride it's a touchdown.

The reality is 66% of Bo Nix TD's were 10+ yard throws. His PFF grade on medium/deep passes was 90. The volume was lower than the other throws but whenever he was asked to throw it further he did it really well.

It was underthrown because of his shitty footwork. The fact that he can launch the ball 50 yards without having his feet set isn't a knock on his arm. The knock is that it wasn't accurate and something he couldn't consistently get away with because he doesn't have an elite arm. He's not going to survive poor footwork because even the QB's with special arms(Favre, Mahomes, Jackson, Allen etc.) had to clean it up somewhat.

Footwork is one of the more fixable issues for a QB. It's all a mess right now but certainly wouldn't hurt.

 

[lionsDen]

Two out of the three things ya mention there are smarts. The kid won the Campbell trophy for being one of the smartest football players out there. But I don’t for one second believe Campbell trophy = NFL QB. Nor do I believe ‘arm talent’ or hand size makes a great one (or any other stupid scouting buzz term). It’s a culmination of smarts/athleticism/work/coaching and more. It typically takes 1/2 to 1 year to figure out if a kid has got ‘it’ or not. This kid has played maybe 1 hr of NFL offensive snaps and people are ready to cut him - that’s f’ing insane. I don’t know that he’s gonna pan out but if he doesn’t then the 2025 QB class sucks and we’re lookin at another retread UFA or doling out a crap ton of assets/picks again a la Russel Wilson style. I’d rather have some faith in this kid and hope he makes it. Call me crazy - I don’t care. I want the Broncos to be good. I want this guy to succeed.

I am on the side that nix will bust. Obviously I I can’t prove it at this point and to be honest I’m not very articulate and the way my phone always refreshes I don’t really care to make a winded post to even try. Tim Tebow had a better start to his career. Atleast they played to his steengts. There’s plenty of blame to go around.

 

[ANewHope]

I am on the side that nix will bust. Obviously I I can’t prove it at this point and to be honest I’m not very articulate and the way my phone always refreshes I don’t really care to make a winded post to even try. Tim Tebow had a better start to his career. Atleast they played to his steengts. There’s plenty of blame to go around.

That'll always be the most likely outcome with QB's. The fact that he's looked this poor and is in one of the worst situations for a rookie QB just makes the odds even higher.

I'm just not going to call it after 2 games. We don't know how bad it's going to be or how much better it might get. As teams get more tape on him he could be getting pulled by game 8. Maybe by than he's just normal bad. We'll see.

 

[Bonzai12]

The reality is 66% of Bo Nix TD's were 10+ yard throws. His PFF grade on medium/deep passes was 90. The volume was lower than the other throws but whenever he was asked to throw it further he did it really well.

It was underthrown because of his shitty footwork. The fact that he can launch the ball 50 yards without having his feet set isn't a knock on his arm. The knock is that it wasn't accurate and something he couldn't consistently get away with because he doesn't have an elite arm. He's not going to survive poor footwork because even the QB's with special arms(Favre, Mahomes, Jackson, Allen etc.) had to clean it up somewhat.

Footwork is one of the more fixable issues for a QB. It's all a mess right now but certainly wouldn't hurt.

great assessment. Jives with everything I have seen/read which is that he has an average arm. Not great. Not terrible. Average and adequate for the NFL. One of the more resonating scouting report weaknesses for Nix that I have seen is that he’s terrible under pressure - which is definitely playing out and something he didn’t have to deal with a whole lot at Oregon. But a lot of this is definitely on Payton and the other 10 offensive players as well - the kid needs to be put into situations where he can be successful/grow.

 

[famicommander]

It’s cute that you think you’re making a point. Except, you’ve been so over the top emphasizing arm strength that you opened yourself up to Jay Cutler, Jeff George, and Dan McGwire references. There’s no going back now.

This really isn't complicated.

Talent doesn't guarantee success but lack of talent can absolutely guarantee failure.

 

[John Mandalorian]

This really isn't complicated.

Talent doesn't guarantee success but lack of talent can absolutely guarantee failure.

Some inverse statements by you makes sense of this? So you’re buddha now, wise one?

Your comment seems extremely predictive and not at all problematic, btw.

 

[Bonzai12]

Talent doesn't guarantee success but lack of talent can absolutely guarantee failure.

Tell that to the approx 80% of NFL Hall of Famers that weren’t taken in the first round…..because they ‘lacked arm talent’, ‘too slow’, ‘not big enough’, ‘bad hands’, etc etc etc.

 

[Hasbro]

On writing Nix off... I think it really comes down to skill sets. I know hockey much more than I'll ever know football, but skill sets are incredibly important in all sports... arguably QB in the NFL tops the whole list. If a player doesn't have the requisite skills, no amount of hope, coaching, experience, time, etc will matter. I keep coming back to it... but the NewJost situations. It was abundantly clear before these players hit the NHL that they didn't have the requisite skill sets needed to succeed as 2nd line centers. They should have been written off from those roles very early, and moved into roles that were more fitting for their skills. If the Avs has moved Newhook to wing early, and developed him there, he might have had a better shot of sticking here. Jost was probably too far gone, but he would have had a better shot of carving out a lesser role if he wasn't forced into roles he was unfit for.

I've watched a lot of football, but I'm far from an expert. In my eyes, Nix does not look to have the skill set of a good NFL QB. He's a bad combination of a below average arm and gunslinger/risk taker. You can deal with one or the other, but both in the NFL rarely works out. To me, Nix looks like a guy who bounces around the NFL as a backup who gets 1-3 starts a year.

An NFL QB is very different than a middle 6 forward. Conventional wisdom is it’s a 50/50 shot on a 1st round QB and you need at least a year to evaluate. However, rolling the dice in the 1st is the most reliable method of getting your franchise guy.

 

[henchman21]

An NFL QB is very different than a middle 6 forward. Conventional wisdom is it’s a 50/50 shot on a 1st round QB and you need at least a year to evaluate. However, rolling the dice in the 1st is the most reliable method of getting your franchise guy.

I don't at all disagree the NFL QB is different, but I'd argue it is even more reliant on a skill set. It is one of the most reliant positions in all of sports on one. I also agree that you keep rolling the dice on guys in the first round (or at least early... 2nd/3rd round at the latest). If it doesn't work with one, you have to keep trying until you hit. If you don't have a great QB, the odds of winning anything are incredibly small.

On the year to evaluate, I don't agree with that. QBs don't have to be perfect or amazing their first year like CJ Stroud, but they need to flash the requisite skills consistently. Many QBs have been drafted and cast aside in under of year of starting. Most QBs don't even get a shot if they are drafted later. But even guys who are top 5 are given up on early... Trey Lance is a recent example. Josh Rosen is another top 10(?) example. If a guy doesn't have it, it is best to move on quickly. If Nix has say 3 of his next 4 games that are comparable to his 2nd game... I'd say you have enough of a book to be looking heavily into the 2025 draft QBs.

 

[Hasbro]

I don't at all disagree the NFL QB is different, but I'd argue it is even more reliant on a skill set. It is one of the most reliant positions in all of sports on one. I also agree that you keep rolling the dice on guys in the first round (or at least early... 2nd/3rd round at the latest). If it doesn't work with one, you have to keep trying until you hit. If you don't have a great QB, the odds of winning anything are incredibly small.

On the year to evaluate, I don't agree with that. QBs don't have to be perfect or amazing their first year like CJ Stroud, but they need to flash the requisite skills consistently. Many QBs have been drafted and cast aside in under of year of starting. Most QBs don't even get a shot if they are drafted later. But even guys who are top 5 are given up on early... Trey Lance is a recent example. Josh Rosen is another top 10(?) example. If a guy doesn't have it, it is best to move on quickly. If Nix has say 3 of his next 4 games that are comparable to his 2nd game... I'd say you have enough of a book to be looking heavily into the 2025 draft QBs.

All tools and no tool box happens more often with a QB. Ryan Leaf being the supreme example.

 

[henchman21]

All tools and no tool box happens more often with a QB. Ryan Leaf being the supreme example.

No tools and insane toolbox happens too... that's the Kellen Moore example. To be a top level NFL QB, there is a very small needle to thread.

By the same logic being displayed on Nix, the Broncos should have given Paxton Lynch more of a chance. At least a full season of starting! I'm being facetious, but there is a point where enough is enough. If he has 2-3 more games out of the next 4-5 like he's had so far... I'd argue that is plenty of evidence.

 

[The Abusement Park]

I'm not writing Nix off yet, I agree it's too early. But he isn't showing the physical or mental talent to be a good NFL QB. I don't see why that should be written off because it's early. If you don't have the arm talent you need to show good processing and decision making. And Nix hasn't done either... So I find it understandable to be worried.

 

[Pokecheque]

I'm not writing Nix off yet, I agree it's too early. But he isn't showing the physical or mental talent to be a good NFL QB. I don't see why that should be written off because it's early. If you don't have the arm talent you need to show good processing and decision making. And Nix hasn't done either... So I find it understandable to be worried.

I agree with Henchy on the Jost comparison, there were just fundamental flaws there so readily apparent that you knew they couldn't be fixed. In Jost's case, it was the skating. In Nix's case, it's the arm. It's not powerful, nor is it accurate. And like Jost, Nix doesn't have insane IQ to offset that very obvious flaw.

 

[Hasbro]

No tools and insane toolbox happens too... that's the Kellen Moore example. To be a top level NFL QB, there is a very small needle to thread.

By the same logic being displayed on Nix, the Broncos should have given Paxton Lynch more of a chance. At least a full season of starting! I'm being facetious, but there is a point where enough is enough. If he has 2-3 more games out of the next 4-5 like he's had so far... I'd argue that is plenty of evidence.

They gave Paxton the appropriate window: two years.

Two other teams were trying to trade up for him too: the Cowboys and Chefs, considering how 5hings turned out for them that should give you an idea how hard it is to judge QBs.

If they QB they should have drafted put up two first games like this in 2018:

This board would have acted the same way.