Ontario Reign 20-21 Part III

[Herby]

Much too early to properly evaluate the 2019 draft. Needs a few more years to marinate.

To some extent true, but I think people overstate how long it takes to evaluate a modern draft. It's not 5-6 years anymore.

There are alot of teams with teenagers on ELC's contributing, and those guys will be expected to contribute in the playoffs starting this weekend. That is a big deal.

The days of high-end guys finishing junior eligibility and then playing multiple seasons in the AHL is largely over. Even for the Kings who people try and say slow play. Toby was in the NHL at 18, fulltime at 19. Byfield probably would have been in the NHL at 18 if Covid hadn't ended the OHL, Kaliyev only in the AHL for the same reason. Even as a 2nd rounder, he plays one more year in the OHL and then atleast challenges for a spot if not outright makes the team (which I think he will this fall).

In a cap league you have to get contributions from guys on ELC's. You can't let the ELC's waste in the AHL for 1st round prospects.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I have hopes that Kupari can be more than a skilled bottom six guy. But the issue, and this is obviously the bigger issue with the Kings is they are going to need him (and a few other highly drafted C's) to transition to wingers if they are going to be scoring line players. People seem to think that isn't a big challenge, and for some it isn't, but for others it is. That is my big issue with this rebuild. how do you have so many high picks yet have so little to show on the wing while being 5-6 deep at U-22 centers?

Kaliyev-Fagemo-Simontaival-Chromiak and some darkhorses in Laferriere, Lee, Jamsen, Shafigullin...I think that's about it for the 'natural' wingers. they're not blue chippers but I think it's early to shut the book on them. But I agree they've gone HARD after Cs thinking they can convert without realizing not all guys play that game. IE I think Byfield would be a questionable winger, but I think Vilardi would be better there. But you would think at least one of Madden, Vilardi, Turcotte, Thomas, Kupari could shift.

I'm guessing the philosophy is that it's easier to acquire wingers than high end Cs.

 

[kovacro]

To some extent true, but I think people overstate how long it takes to evaluate a modern draft. It's not 5-6 years anymore.

There are alot of teams with teenagers on ELC's contributing, and those guys will be expected to contribute in the playoffs starting this weekend. That is a big deal.

The days of high-end guys finishing junior eligibility and then playing multiple seasons in the AHL is largely over. Even for the Kings who people try and say slow play. Toby was in the NHL at 18, fulltime at 19. Byfield probably would have been in the NHL at 18 if Covid hadn't ended the OHL, Kaliyev only in the AHL for the same reason. Even as a 2nd rounder, he plays one more year in the OHL and then atleast challenges for a spot if not outright makes the team (which I think he will this fall).

In a cap league you have to get contributions from guys on ELC's. You can't let the ELC's waste in the AHL for 1st round prospects.

Just to play devil's advocate. I see Nick Suzuki that is 20 and/or under that are expected to play a significant role and that's really it. Maybe and it's a stretch Cole Caufield but, if that is the case, the Habs are in a world of hurt if they are relying on a kid that's had a handful of pro games late in the season and they expect him to be a top -6 1st unit PP guy versus the Leafs in Round 1.

Now, if you expand that to 22/23 then yes, there are several that are expected to contribute significantly.

I do understand about the cap having an influence on "rushing" young players to the NHL so their entry level years do not get burned in the AHL. I still still think it's years before you can get a true evaluation of any particular draft.

It's a balancing act, you don't want to ruin a kid by throwing him in the fire too soon either. I think it's a mistake the Habs have made with Kotkaniemi (3rd overall in 18'). There have been times during this season where he has just looked lost out there and his confidence seems lacking. I still believe he ends up being a productive hockey player, it's just that I'm not sure the Habs have went about his development path properly thus far.

In a nutshell, what do I know.

 

[Herby]

Just to play devil's advocate. I see Nick Suzuki that is 20 and/or under that are expected to play a significant role and that's really it. Maybe and it's a stretch Cole Caufield but, if that is the case, the Habs are in a world of hurt if they are relying on a kid that's had a handful of pro games late in the season and they expect him to be a top -6 1st unit PP guy versus the Leafs in Round 1.

Now, if you expand that to 22/23 then yes, there are several that are expected to contribute significantly.

I do understand about the cap having an influence on "rushing" young players to the NHL so their entry level years do not get burned in the AHL. I still still think it's years before you can get a true evaluation of any particular draft.

It's a balancing act, you don't want to ruin a kid by throwing him in the fire too soon either. I think it's a mistake the Habs have made with Kotkaniemi (3rd overall in 18'). There have been times during this season where he has just looked lost out there and his confidence seems lacking. I still believe he ends up being a productive hockey player, it's just that I'm not sure the Habs have went about his development path properly thus far.

In a nutshell, what do I know.

I am not saying to rush players who aren't ready. Cole Caufield just had one of the best seasons for an U-20 player in the history of NCAA hockey, played two AHL games and was clearly the best player on the ice in one, and maybe both of them. The Habs need help scoring goals and he isn't gaining much playing in the AHL if he is the best player on the team. He has a role on the Habs as someone who is going to probably score at a 25-30 goal pace despite little PP time. The Habs aren't expecting him to be their best player, a 1st liner or a #1 PP guy, but he was clearly ready to contribute in the NHL and he has. There is also something about getting players you are expecting bigger contributions from next season up sooner than later to get some rookie stuff out of the way (as the Kings did with QB).

 

[Choralone]

Am I the only one who isn't in a hurry to trade Kupari? Almost everyone on here throws his name out for every trade proposal. I like his skill set and I want to see what this kid can do.

 

[Master Yoda]

To some extent true, but I think people overstate how long it takes to evaluate a modern draft. It's not 5-6 years anymore.

There are alot of teams with teenagers on ELC's contributing, and those guys will be expected to contribute in the playoffs starting this weekend. That is a big deal.

The days of high-end guys finishing junior eligibility and then playing multiple seasons in the AHL is largely over. Even for the Kings who people try and say slow play. Toby was in the NHL at 18, fulltime at 19. Byfield probably would have been in the NHL at 18 if Covid hadn't ended the OHL, Kaliyev only in the AHL for the same reason. Even as a 2nd rounder, he plays one more year in the OHL and then atleast challenges for a spot if not outright makes the team (which I think he will this fall).

In a cap league you have to get contributions from guys on ELC's. You can't let the ELC's waste in the AHL for 1st round prospects.

I think the 5-6 year evaluation mostly still hold true.
Just for example, do you take Sergachev over Laine or PLD 2-3 years ago?
Heck, some might take Puljujarvi over Laine at this point.
Guys like Keller and Larkin looked like they were going to be perennial PPG wingers. Hasn't really panned out and they've actually regressed, at least in terms of point production.
And guys like Zacha and Mittelstadt look like they're starting to finding their games.

I think after 2-3 years, we get a better idea of where guys stand overall, especially the top 10~15 picks, but for almost every draft year, we see players' games change for the better or for the worse, even 4,5,6 years after the draft.

 

[Fat Elvis]

Am I the only one who isn't in a hurry to trade Kupari? Almost everyone on here throws his name out for every trade proposal. I like his skill set and I want to see what this kid can do.

I'm with you. He has an intriguing skill set. I think a player like Clague will find himself in another organization come next season. I think draft capital will be used to make moves more than prospect assets this offseason.

 

[driller1]

Driller,

Respect the hell out of your opinion, but I don't think the analysis is fair. Just because the playoffs start doesn't mean that he is going to lose his shot and more importantly his game sense to get open to release it, which is what it's all about, it's like Tyreek Hill's speed in the NFL. It's just something that jumps out at you, from the second you see him play, heck from the second you see him in warm-up, living in the area I do I've been lucky enough to see a lot of good players play before they reached the NHL, in 20 years I've never seen a college or junior player with his shot, not a single one. I'm not saying the guy is going to win Selke's or play on the PK. But it's also not the 1990's anymore, there is a lot of room out there and that player with room and that shot is going to score, and score a lot, as much as people want to talk intangibles and what people can't do but it's still the object of the game to put pucks in the net.

Teams missed, it happens. NHL GM's are for the most part risk-averse, he's 5'7 and had played in the USHL, Kopitar was from Slovenia, Kaliyev might be older or on the spectrum, Erik Karlsson was 150 lbs. I think in a re-draft he jumps a lot of people (not just Turcotte since people think I pick on him). I think I feel more comfortable going forward taking him over anyone from that draft, even the top 2 guys (who haven't lived up to it) and even Zegras. Maybe I will be wrong, I just don't see how he's not 40+ every year possibly as soon as next year.

The Kaliyev thing is an interesting point, and I like Arty, he's probably my fav Kings prospect and I was one of those people who was pissed the Kings didn't take him at 22. He is our best winger prospect, but I just don't see him at the same type of level as Caufield. I don't know if taking CC means the Kings would have not taken Arty. The Kings had gone C the previous two drafts so it wouldn't have been impossible to try and address the goal-scoring winger issue with two very good ones, one a right shot one a left with 2 of those 3 top 35 picks.

To be clear, as an American, I hope Caufield is the real deal and contributes to USA hockey in significant international tourneys. I certainly appreciate his elite level shot.

As with any team, you need different people in different roles. Let's just say we drafted Caufield and Kaliyev and had Vilardi center the two of them. In my opinion, that line would be a disaster. Why? Because no one can bring the puck up ice. It's why Vilardi needs someone like Kempe or Iafallo on his line - someone needs to bring the puck up ice before Vilardi can work his magic with his big body and sick hands.

Kings are short of natural finishers so I understand the importance of both Caufield and Kaliyev. I just think its important for guys like Turcotte to be part of the team because you still need someone to bring the puck up the ice and distribute to the finishers. Unfortunately the Kings suck and don't have finishers, puck movers, or distributors at this moment...

So I guess my point comes down to weighing different attributes. If Caufield is a 40 goal a year scorer in the regular season but falls to 30 goals/yr pace in the playoffs (less penalties, tighter checking, etc -- not saying he'll fall off a cliff but he'll have less PP opportunities and will be grabbed a lot more), does that still mean he is heads and shoulders above a Turcotte or Zegras or Cozens? What if someone like Turcotte does all the little things and is only 15 goal/year pace but has 45 assists and maintains that through the playoffs. Is that better or worse than someone who can score at a 30 goal/yr pace in the playoffs?

I will certainly acknowledge that I don't know that answer at this moment but look forward to seeing these young guns develop.

 

[Herby]

I think the 5-6 year evaluation mostly still hold true.
Just for example, do you take Sergachev over Laine or PLD 2-3 years ago?
Heck, some might take Puljujarvi over Laine at this point.
Guys like Keller and Larkin looked like they were going to be perennial PPG wingers. Hasn't really panned out and they've actually regressed, at least in terms of point production.
And guys like Zacha and Mittelstadt look like they're starting to finding their games.

I think after 2-3 years, we get a better idea of where guys stand overall, especially the top 10~15 picks, but for almost every draft year, we see players' games change for the better or for the worse, even 4,5,6 years after the draft.

There can be changes, some guys fall off. Defenseman do take a little bit longer than forwards, alot of that is from filling out. But for the most part, if you evaluate a draft after 2 years and again after 5 the results are usually going to be the same.

Could Caufield or Zegras pull a Laine? I guess it is possible, Laine and Caufield have very similar skillsets with a generational type arsenal of shots, but I think there is something wrong with Laine between the ears, and most guys aren't going to have that issue. Caufield seems to have a similar personality and love for the game and scoring goals that Luc had, Luc had his limitations but was always a great and liked teammate everywhere he went. Very few guys in the sport ever fall of like Laine has, he is entering Jimmy Carson territory with this drop off.

 

[Master Yoda]

There can be changes, some guys fall off. Defenseman do take a little bit longer than forwards, alot of that is from filling out. But for the most part, if you evaluate a draft after 2 years and again after 5 the results are usually going to be the same.

Could Caufield or Zegras pull a Laine? I guess it is possible, Laine and Caufield have very similar skillsets with a generational type arsenal of shots, but I think there is something wrong with Laine between the ears, and most guys aren't going to have that issue. Caufield seems to have a similar personality and love for the game and scoring goals that Luc had, Luc had his limitations but was always a great and liked teammate everywhere he went. Very few guys in the sport ever fall of like Laine has, he is entering Jimmy Carson territory with this drop off.

Yeah, Laine is an extreme example and that doesn't really happen too often. And I do agree that 2-3 years can show a pretty decent overall standing of the top 10ish guys.
But if we're doing a 1st round redraft after 2-3 years and then again after 5-6 years, there would be a lot of guys moving around, some just a few spots, and some more than a few spots.

 

[Herby]

To be clear, as an American, I hope Caufield is the real deal and contributes to USA hockey in significant international tourneys. I certainly appreciate his elite level shot.

As with any team, you need different people in different roles. Let's just say we drafted Caufield and Kaliyev and had Vilardi center the two of them. In my opinion, that line would be a disaster. Why? Because no one can bring the puck up ice. It's why Vilardi needs someone like Kempe or Iafallo on his line - someone needs to bring the puck up ice before Vilardi can work his magic with his big body and sick hands.

Kings are short of natural finishers so I understand the importance of both Caufield and Kaliyev. I just think its important for guys like Turcotte to be part of the team because you still need someone to bring the puck up the ice and distribute to the finishers. Unfortunately the Kings suck and don't have finishers, puck movers, or distributors at this moment...

So I guess my point comes down to weighing different attributes. If Caufield is a 40 goal a year scorer in the regular season but falls to 30 goals/yr pace in the playoffs (less penalties, tighter checking, etc -- not saying he'll fall off a cliff but he'll have less PP opportunities and will be grabbed a lot more), does that still mean he is heads and shoulders above a Turcotte or Zegras or Cozens? What if someone like Turcotte does all the little things and is only 15 goal/year pace but has 45 assists and maintains that through the playoffs. Is that better or worse than someone who can score at a 30 goal/yr pace in the playoffs?

I will certainly acknowledge that I don't know that answer at this moment but look forward to seeing these young guns develop.

You can find an Alex Turcotte in every draft. Someone will be drafting Beniers this year to play a similar game as Turcotte. Sam Bennett was drafted to play that role, Not trying to minimize guys like this (even though I do question the ceilings) because they are important to a team but there just aren't players with Caufield's skill-set in the draft every year and that is why I found it so appealing for the Kings to swing for the fences at that draft, even knowing that the floor was basement low. The Kings have had so few electrifying goal-scorers and they are now a bigger part of success in the modern NHL than they were a generation ago. Plus with going C the previous two years and the chance they'd be able to in 2021 made me think that swing for the fences winger was the play in 2019 to best set-up the rebuild.

I said it a couple of weeks ago before he turned pro, Caufield's ceiling is Brett Hull/Pavel Bure type goal-scorer and his floor was the Swiss league. Turcotte's ceiling is a prime Mike Richards two-way 1st/2nd line tweener center with sandpaper and his floor is Sam Bennett a gritty third liner with some skill. So I guess it comes down to how much you are willing to gamble, I think with Top 5 I'd rather swing for the Rocket Richard ceiling and risk the complete flop than settle on the safer guy. To answer your question, I think whoever ends up more valuable of those players comes down to Caufield, if he hits his ceiling I just don't think any of those three will be better players with the possible exception of Zegras, who to be honest I didn't think would score goals like he has and probably has a ceiling that puts him into high end 1C territory, which if he hits makes him more valuable than Caufield unless CC is like a perennial 50+ guy. But they were all certainly safer options on draft day. Cozens is a nice player and he showed some flashes this season, but are you winning a cup with Cozens as your 1C going forward? I know Buff drafted him as a 2C but at the time for the Kings he would have become the #1 C of the future. Same thing with Turcotte, are you winning a cup with him as your 1C? If the answer is no, then I just don't get how it can be justified to take either over Caufield.

 

[Statto]

But on Caufield I think you sell him a bit short, I don't think there is any chance Caufield is not a long-term difference maker for the Habs. Yes he's getting started early in his NHL career, but this is not a flash in the pan, this is a guy who has scored a massive amount goals at every level he has played despite always being one of the youngest players in whatever league he has played, and has now slid pretty seamlessly into that role in the NHL in his D+1.

I’m not selling him short, just pointing out that a great start, like Vilardi, doesn’t make him the finished product. He could easy score 4 goals in his first 30 games next season which wouldn’t make him a bust either. It’s why it’s a few years before we can properly assess the draft as player development is a long way from being a linear process. That’s why I’m not using other teams prospects to measure the success or failure of ours, I’ll just follow each of them in their own right and see where we end up.

 

[Fishhead]

Am I the only one who isn't in a hurry to trade Kupari? Almost everyone on here throws his name out for every trade proposal. I like his skill set and I want to see what this kid can do.

He's got good size and skill, I certainly wouldn't rush to trade him. It's probably more of a numbers thing down the line. He's a top 6 style guy and I think a lot are high on Arty for a scoring winger spot, and probably one of Turcotte/Vilardi. Kempe and Iafallo are around for a while.

He could potentially be on Byfield's down the line, if things work out it would be 2 second lines. I think the bottom line is right now he seems more expendable than some of the others, but I certainly would expect a damn good player that fills a need coming back if he's traded. Right now I feel he's truly in the middle - a step below the top guys, but worth a little more value-wise than Thomas. Glad it's not my job to try and predict how everyone pans out.

 

[Mats26]

I have hopes that Kupari can be more than a skilled bottom six guy. But the issue, and this is obviously the bigger issue with the Kings is they are going to need him (and a few other highly drafted C's) to transition to wingers if they are going to be scoring line players. People seem to think that isn't a big challenge, and for some it isn't, but for others it is. That is my big issue with this rebuild. how do you have so many high picks yet have so little to show on the wing while being 5-6 deep at U-22 centers?



I agree with most of this, as I said in my reply to Mats, Turcotte will be a good player for the Kings possibly as early as next year, and Turcotte was for the most part the consensus pick for the Kings there based on the rankings. But on Caufield I think you sell him a bit short, I don't think there is any chance Caufield is not a long-term difference maker for the Habs. Yes he's getting started early in his NHL career, but this is not a flash in the pan, this is a guy who has scored a massive amount goals at every level he has played despite always being one of the youngest players in whatever league he has played, and has now slid pretty seamlessly into that role in the NHL in his D+1.

I wanted CC bad, for one because the Kings have had such issues scoring goals for so long and mostly because a player like that is just not really available to often to draft. You can find a Turcotte, Zegras, Boldy, York type player in the top half of the 1st in just about every draft. Caufield is a rarer commodity, there just aren't that many people who can shoot the puck like him in the league. But I also don't think it should be a negative on the Kings scouting team that they missed on him, or do I think it destroys the Kings rebuild. The Kings also took the wrong player when they took Brown over Getzlaf and Parise and it worked out fine, largely because the Kings were able to fill the alpha forward role two years later with Kopitar, something that is hopefully the case with Byfield.

Although it would have been fun to have Byfield and Caufield, they would have needed to find another "field" to have the "Field of Dreams Line" - I'll see myself out.



Bjornfot is already an NHL'er at 19, taken in the later half of the 1st. The Kings may like a do-over with #5 based on some of the potential stars they passed on, but Bjornfot at 22 has been a heck of a pick by the Kings in the immediate and long-term.

And the rebuild doesn't hinge on this draft, the Hawks took Jack Skille over Anze Kopitar in 2005 and five years later began a 3 in 6 years dynasty. Other than landing Doughty, Lombardi's other first round picks from 2006-2010 resulted in a backup goalie, a 3rd/4th liner, a guy who was waived before playing a game for the team, a career minor league d-man, a 2C who only played a handful of games before being traded and a #5 d-man, and the Kings won 10 playoff series and 2 cups between 2012-2014. Bjornfot has already accomplished more than most of those guys and he turned 20 last month. The Kings rebuild is right now more on the shoulders of Byfield than on any of the guys taken 2017-2019. Even if Turcotte is a 2nd line LW or a 3C and Toby is a 4D it wouldn't destroy the rebuild.

Maybe it's because they drafted Toews and Kane don't you think? We won't pick that high anymore(unless things go sounth) so the 2019 draft class better come through. Similar to what the Hawks did in getting their core players for the cup runs with their top picks. We can't afford to miss on the top picks unless we want to tank for the next 3-5 years, that should not even be debated.

 

[LAKings88]

Turcotte will be good in his role. If he can be a Richards I’ll be happy.

 

[Herby]

Maybe it's because they drafted Toews and Kane don't you think? We won't pick that high anymore(unless things go sounth) so the 2019 draft class better come through. Similar to what the Hawks did in getting their core players for the cup runs with their top picks. We can't afford to miss on the top picks unless we want to tank for the next 3-5 years, that should not even be debated.

If the Kings commit to the slow rebuild and don't make any moves next season the Kings will be picking high again, maybe not Top 5, but they will be in the 7-10 range and one injury to either DD and AK away from being as bad as anyone in the league.

I also don't think it's fair to say the Kings "missed" on the picks in that draft. In hindsight would the Kings be in a better spot with Zegras or Caufield? Yes, anyone who tells you otherwise isn't being truthful, and the the 1C projections were probably a bit off but he at worst is an elite third liner and probably slides in as a 2nd line winger or center with a lot of good intangibles. Is it what you want with a Top 5 pick? Probably not, but it's not going to torpedo a rebuild. And Bjornfot has exceeded expectations significantly, he came over to NA made an NHL roster out of camp at 18 and became a fulltime NHL'er at 19. The Kings may have lost some value at 5, but they gained some at 22. If you end up with a decent 2nd liner and a #3 d-man from 5 and 22 it's not hitting Yahtzee but its not the disaster I think you believe it is. It could really be as simple as someone like Kaliyev turning into a 35-40 goal guy and making up for that lost value. No rebuilds go completely perfect, even the best ones.

If we use the 2003 draft as the moment when LA and Chicago started to piece together what would eventually be their championship cores (LA added Brown and Chicago added Seabrook and Crawford).

LA and Chicago both had plenty of real misses

2003- Tambellini and Boyle at 27-28OA
2004- Barker 3 OA to Chicago & Tukonen 11 OA to the Kings
2005- Skille 7OA to Chicago
2006- Bernier 11OA to the Kings
2007- Hickey 4OA to the Kings
2008- Beech 11OA to Chicago, Tuebert 13OA to Kings
2010- Forbort 15OA to Kings, Hayes 24 OA (never signed)

If the Hawks can survive losing the lottery and going from Barker to Malkin and the Kings can survive ending up with Brown, Tambellini and Boyle instead of Getzlaf, Perry and (whoever) and both end up winning championships less than a decade later the Kings should be able to survive missing out on Zegras or Caufield.

 

[Mats26]

If the Kings commit to the slow rebuild and don't make any moves next season the Kings will be picking high again, maybe not Top 5, but they will be in the 7-10 range and one injury to either DD and AK away from being as bad as anyone in the league.

I also don't think it's fair to say the Kings "missed" on the picks in that draft. In hindsight would the Kings be in a better spot with Zegras or Caufield? Yes, anyone who tells you otherwise isn't being truthful, and the the 1C projections were probably a bit off but he at worst is an elite third liner and probably slides in as a 2nd line winger or center with a lot of good intangibles. Is it what you want with a Top 5 pick? Probably not, but it's not going to torpedo a rebuild. And Bjornfot has exceeded expectations significantly, he came over to NA made an NHL roster out of camp at 18 and became a fulltime NHL'er at 19. The Kings may have lost some value at 5, but they gained some at 22. If you end up with a decent 2nd liner and a #3 d-man from 5 and 22 it's not hitting Yahtzee but its not the disaster I think you believe it is. It could really be as simple as someone like Kaliyev turning into a 35-40 goal guy and making up for that lost value. No rebuilds go completely perfect, even the best ones.

If we use the 2003 draft as the moment when LA and Chicago started to piece together what would eventually be their championship cores (LA added Brown and Chicago added Seabrook and Crawford).

LA and Chicago both had plenty of real misses

2003- Tambellini and Boyle at 27-28OA
2004- Barker 3 OA to Chicago & Tukonen 11 OA to the Kings
2005- Skille 7OA to Chicago
2006- Bernier 11OA to the Kings
2007- Hickey 4OA to the Kings
2008- Beech 11OA to Chicago, Tuebert 13OA to Kings
2010- Forbort 15OA to Kings, Hayes 24 OA (never signed)

If the Hawks can survive losing the lottery and going from Barker to Malkin and the Kings can survive ending up with Brown, Tambellini and Boyle instead of Getzlaf, Perry and (whoever) and both end up winning championships less than a decade later the Kings should be able to survive missing out on Zegras or Caufield.

Every team has misses in the draft. Some misses can set a franchise back years. But the Hawks hit on the ones that matter and catapulted them to the cup runs. The 2019 was a loaded draft, we had multiple 1rd picks, we need them to be the right picks for this rebuild.

 

[bland]

Two years from now a lot of folks are gonna be shocked at just how much they underestimated Turcotte's skill level.

 

[LAKings88]

Can’t really evaluate Turcotte until he can play in the NHL imho. Hope he has a good summer and earns a spot.

 

[Herby]

Every team has misses in the draft. Some misses can set a franchise back years. But the Hawks hit on the ones that matter and catapulted them to the cup runs. The 2019 was a loaded draft, we had multiple 1rd picks, we need them to be the right picks for this rebuild.

Who should the Kings have taken instead of Bjornfot? The only player in the draft taken after Toby with more games than Bjornfot is Hoglander, taken 18 picks later.

I mean, I understand what you are saying. If Zegras is a 90 point 1C and Caufield averages 45 a year it does hurt, especially with Zegras ending up with the Ducks. But if the Kings come out of 2019 with a 2C, a 4D and a scoring line winger with 5, 22 and 33 it's a pretty nice return. I'm more sure of what we have with Turcotte and Bjornfot, neither are going to be stars but they'll both be solid pieces, Arty (and to some extent Fagemo) are IMO going to be the guys who determine this draft.

 

[Schmooley]

Two years from now a lot of folks are gonna be shocked at just how much they underestimated Turcotte's skill level.

I think he tops out as a less vicious Mike Richards and bottoms out as a Ryan Callahan that can play on any line and make it better but has better hands than Callahan.

 

[Herby]

Two years from now a lot of folks are gonna be shocked at just how much they underestimated Turcotte's skill level.

Do you think his play warrants being considered on the same caliber as the two guys being discussed in this thread? Would you turn down Zegras or Caufield straight up? Is saying he's a 1st line long shot underestimating?

He has to start show it on a consistent basis, not stretches of production followed by stretches of nothing. I disagree with Mats that it's a missed or whiffed pick because he is going to have an important role on this team regardless but saying he's pretty far off from those 2 or that he isn't going to return 5OA value is IMO atleast not really underestimating now does it make him a missed pick anymore than DB was a missed pick in 2003.

Even though I wanted them to go in a different direction, I don't fault the Kings for the pick, said it a million times, and even people like me (Caufield) or Ziggy (Zegras) could never have imaged that either one of those guys would be this good this quickly. Heaping praise on those guys isn't the same as underestimating. Right now it's real-time professional production vs. projected professional production.

 

[Mats26]

Who should the Kings have taken instead of Bjornfot? The only player in the draft taken after Toby with more games than Bjornfot is Hoglander, taken 18 picks later.

I mean, I understand what you are saying. If Zegras is a 90 point 1C and Caufield averages 45 a year it does hurt, especially with Zegras ending up with the Ducks. But if the Kings come out of 2019 with a 2C, a 4D and a scoring line winger with 5, 22 and 33 it's a pretty nice return. I'm more sure of what we have with Turcotte and Bjornfot, neither are going to be stars but they'll both be solid pieces, Arty (and to some extent Fagemo) are IMO going to be the guys who determine this draft.

As soon as the Hawks passed on Turcotte, red flags went up for me. I thought he was too small for the style he wants to play, not sure how effective he'll be in the NHL with that size. I am pulling for him, to get bigger, stronger. I am comparing his development to that of Brayden Shenn so I think the next 8 months will be a huge for his development.

For Bjornfot, we should of picked Kaliyev there. We were real lucky to get Arty in the 2nd. But I thought Tomassino was their pick. Had been playing with Akil Thomas in the OHL, so Kings had scouted him well, but they had plans to move up for Fagemo so I guess I understand why they passed on him.

 

[Herby]

As soon as the Hawks passed on Turcotte, red flags went up for me. I thought he was too small for the style he wants to play, not sure how effective he'll be in the NHL with that size. I am pulling for him, to get bigger, stronger. I am comparing his development to that of Brayden Shenn so I think the next 8 months will be a huge for his development.

For Bjornfot, we should of picked Kaliyev there. We were real lucky to get Arty in the 2nd. But I thought Tomassino was their pick. Had been playing with Akil Thomas in the OHL, so Kings had scouted him well, but they had plans to move up for Fagemo so I guess I understand why they passed on him.

I think the Turcotte to Chicago thing got hyped up because he is from the Chicagoland area and people made the connection that the Hawks might go with the hometown kid, much as what happened on this board in 2010 with Etem and Bennett being projected to the Kings. Chicago from what I've read didn't really internally debate it much and were Dach all the way, and that is good, if you like a kid more but end up taking another kid because he is local that is piss poor management.I don't think that is a knock on Turcotte, they just liked Dach more, and Turcotte was quickly drafted by the Kings 2 picks later

The size thing is a concern, and maybe that is why the Kings have tried him a bit at LW. But again it's not the end of the world if he has to move to the wing in the NHL, in fact it might get him into the league sooner than trying to breakthrough Kopi, Byfield, Vilardi, JAD and Kupari who as of this present moment are ahead of him on the depth chart. The LW path is waaaaaay more clear for him, maybe as clear as next season if he can effectively play the position in camp.

I wanted Kaliyev at 22, but just as I like to tell people they can't deny reality, those of us who wanted Kaliyev at 22 can't deny the reality that Blake came out of it looking like a genius by waiting and getting him early in the 2nd. It was a gamble that paid off, if the Kings take Kaliyev at 22 and miss out on Toby this draft is a lot weaker for the Kings.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Do you think his play warrants being considered on the same caliber as the two guys being discussed in this thread? Would you turn down Zegras or Caufield straight up? Is saying he's a 1st line long shot underestimating?

He has to start show it on a consistent basis, not stretches of production followed by stretches of nothing. I disagree with Mats that it's a missed or whiffed pick because he is going to have an important role on this team regardless but saying he's pretty far off from those 2 or that he isn't going to return 5OA value is IMO atleast not really underestimating now does it make him a missed pick anymore than DB was a missed pick in 2003.

Even though I wanted them to go in a different direction, I don't fault the Kings for the pick, said it a million times, and even people like me (Caufield) or Ziggy (Zegras) could never have imaged that either one of those guys would be this good this quickly. Heaping praise on those guys isn't the same as underestimating. Right now it's real-time professional production vs. projected professional production.

It's very telling that you're comfortable with such a small sample size for Caulfield or Zegras but not, say, 21 points in the last 25 games for Turcotte, almost leading the Reign despite a zippo for his first few games.

I think we have to see what he can do in the NHL before we throw the baby out with the bathwater.